Australian Jumps Season 2023

[Darran]

I am back for my 4th attempt at looking at the Australian Jumps racing season. It all started because of Covid and 2020 was very successful. 2021 was a bit tougher, but last year was superb with the final totals for the season stakes 112.5, returns 155.28 for a total profit of 42.78. I was more than pleased with that and hopefully I can have another profitable season which starts on Gold Cup Day at Terang and will carry on until August.

Race 1

We start with a BM120 Hurdle and as the betting suggests the race is quite trappy, but it looks full of horses who struggle to actually get their head in front and therefore I think Mighty Oasis can win the opening race of the season. He won twice last season at Warrnambool and Casterton before struggling in his final couple of runs of the prep. I suspect he had more than enough for the season and he had 2 2nds on the flat which were decent. He did disappoint at Yarra Valley last time, but he's trialed well since over fences and whilst this might be a prep for going over fences I think he can take this first.

Mighty Oasis 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred and William Hill

Race 2

Looks a pretty weak maiden hurdle and Laybuy is favourite on the back of a promising trail, but I prefer the claims of Cotton Eye Joe. Most of these are making their debuts over hurdles, but he ran in a maiden on the final meeting of the season at Ballarat. He made the running, but in the end got tired and ended up finishing 5th. On better ground here I think he has a chance of making all and to put that hurdling experience to good use. He trailed really well earlier in the month so that is promising as well for his claims here.

Cotton Eye Joe 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

Race 3

Not a huge fan of this race so will pass it over betting wise. Goondiwindi would be the most likely winner as didn't get much luck on hurdles debut at Ballarat and can improve on that.

Race 4

The first steeplechase of the new season and its not a very strong affair. Count Zero and Flying Pierro are the market leaders here, but I am happy enough to try and take them on. Count Zero didn't impress me with his jumping in his trial and whilst Flying Pierro was much better, I didn't think a great deal of his two runs over fences last season. He didn't jump well when 3rd behind Historic at Hamilton and then a week later looked quite one paced in 4th albeit he was hampered by a fall at 3 out which didn't help. Speaking of Historic I think there is value in backing him. Although he has won on a Heavy 10 he has also won on a Soft 5 so these conditions shouldn't bother him. This is the sort of race he can win and he has won 5 times over jumps from 21 starts and he has had two solid trials going into this. I am also going to cover So Belafonte who won the trail Count Zero was in and jumped very well. He's only had one start over fences back in 2020 when he fell when beaten, but he looks set to do better this time around. He only had 3 hurdle starts last year and never really got going, but he's had 5 flat runs plus the trial to get his fitness up and he's been running solidly on the level. He looks a big price here.

Historic 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

So Belafonte 1pt @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

[Darran]

Out of luck last week with a couple of frustrating 2nd. Thursday we are off to Warrnambool for the first time this season with 3 jumps races on the card

 

Race 1

 

Nelson might be familiar name as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He has had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup last week. He was 6^th in that and it was a solid enough run which he clearly is going to benefit from. What I think is more important though is his hurdle trials. His 2^nd was here and I really liked the way he attacked his hurdles. He is the best of these on the Flat.

 

Toyetic is a stablemate of Nelson and has won 5 times on the Flat. He's been well beaten in both Flat starts this year, but did win both his hurdle trials. He jumped well enough, but I wouldn't say as well as Nelson and his trial at Warrnambool was way slower than Nelson's. I'd say the fact Pateman is on Nelson is proof that he is the stable's first string.

 

Rudimental was useful enough when he first came over from France and had a couple of decent showings last April including a 3^rd in the Terang Cup. He has really lost his form since then though and has struggled to even beat a horse home. Dropped all the way into BM58 company at Ararat last time and was only 5th. He did win his hurdle trial last time which was certainly a step in the right direction and that he might find some form over hurdles.

 

Zoffany Rocket and Buffalo Bill were both 3^rd last week at Terang. The former was well beaten in much the quicker division whereas the latter stayed on to be beaten a length in the slower division. Both are long term maidens though and I think they will struggle here. Armansky has been well beaten in weak flat races this year and might struggle here.

 

Nelson is long odds on here which is no surprise and he should win. Whilst I suspect a Maher 1-2 is the most likely result I am happy enough to leave the race alone from a betting perspective.

 

Race 2

This looks a pretty weak handicap hurdle and last week's Terang winner San Remo must have an excellent chance of following up. He did have the perfect run that day just sitting off the pace and then being sent on as they left the back straight. It was a good ride, but this race doesn't look any harder and I think he can beat the Musgrove 3. Youl Dash For Cash hasn't been seen over hurdles since he won at Morphettville in 2019. He was off until January 2021 had 3 Flat starts and then only had a couple of jump outs last year. This year he had 2 jump outs before a couple of Flat runs were he only beat 1 horse home each time. He's had two hurdle trials which were OK and then was a well beaten last at Stony Creek last week. He's 11 now and whilst he might improve for going back over hurdles I would rather see how he gets on first. Onset finally managed to win over hurdles last season when winning at Casterton and went on to win two more times at Sale and again at Casterton. He's had some trials and a couple of Flat runs and is a fairly solid horse, but I suspect he might need another run or 2 to get up to fitness. Good old Cheners was 3^rd in this race last year and the fact he has only won twice in 31 jumps starts tells you how hard he finds it to win. Outside of the Musgrove horses there is just Epizeel who won the 2^nd division of the maiden at Terang last week. I think that is weak form though and San Remo's winning time was over 2 seconds quicker.

 

There is little between the two Terang winners at the head of the market, but I would have San Remo further ahead myself so happy to back him to follow up that win.

 

San Remo 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power

 

Race 3

Police Camp ran a hell of a race to finish 2^nd in the Grand Annual over 5500m here last May, but that just highlights he needs a stamina test and I suspect connections are working him towards peaking him in May rather than March. I thought Historic had a chance last week at Terang, but he was already finding himself outpaced when he was severely checked avoiding a faller at the 4th. Given how far back he was I find it hard to back him here and looks a bit short in the market. Mighty Oasis dropped away very tamely last week in the BM120 Hurdle after making the running. He trailed well enough over the fences here prior to that so might improve here, but he looks very short in the betting at 10/11. The Beehive did show a little promise in 4 hurdle stats to date and was solid enough on the Flat at Pakenham last time. He trailed here prior to that and it was an interesting run as he started off out the back and then made up plenty of ground to end up joining the front two who were well clear. He certainly seemed to take well to the larger obstacles. 

 

With Rexmont a non-runner it might mean Mighty Oasis gets a fairly easy lead and that might be key, but he dropped away very tamely last week and I just can't make him an odds on shot to win this. Historic does have the ability to win this, but I didn't like the way he was so far back at Terang before being forced out of the race. With Police Squad needing a stronger test of stamina that leaves us with The Beehive. Based on his trial here he might just turn out to be a better chaser than hurdler so I will take a chance on him being able to win this on his chasing debut.

 

The Beehive 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and Betfred

[Darran]

San Remo won last week although there was a big R4 so that didn't help things. Hamilton is the venue on Sunday morning with two divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle and a handicap steeplechase.

Race 1

Cotton Eye Joe looked the winner at Terang, but Laybuy came pass him almost right on the line. He didn't jump the last two hurdles especially well and basically that was the difference between winning and losing. The winning time was 8.5 seconds quicker than the other division and I do think it was the stronger race. Summerhill has been running OK on the Flat, but I didn't like the shape he was making over his hurdles in his last hurdle trial. Thinking Man won a maiden on the flat 10 days ago at Mornington and ran in hurdles trial just on Thursday, but I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw. Toyetic is 2nd on the betting, but I didn't think there was a great deal of promise in his Warrnambool effort last week.

I thought the race was between Cotton Eye Joe and Lord Goldberg so with the latter out of the race I do think Cotton Eye Joe really ought to be hard to beat in what isn't that strong a race now.

Cotton Eye Joe 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone

Race 2

Duke Of Bedford was a 3/4L 2nd to Epizeel on his hurdles debut at Terang and whilst I don't think it was an especially strong race, neither is this, and  I don't think he was suited by the slow tempo and the sprint at the end as he was finishing his race off well. Flying Pierro ran in the steeplechase at Terang, but was a well beaten 3rd there. He was a close 2nd on his last hurdle start at Warrnambool last June, but he does seem to be building a frustrating profile. Praise The Power won his last hurdles trial a month ago, but I'm not sure the others were trying overly hard in it and his flat career is 1 win from 51 starts. He also finished last in a flat race last 9 days ago. Peace Process ran well enough when a close 5th behind Epizeel in the Terang race and can build on that. Rising Renown and Ourkhani are both short in the betting, but neither make huge appeal for me. 

I guess you always have to be slightly wary about hurdling newcomers, but none of those took the eye in the trials so I will stick with Duke Of Bedford who can go one better than at Terang.

Duke Of Bedford 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365

Race 3

El Diez, Dr Dependable and Sky Hero all ran in the BM120 at Terang and they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I suspect El Diez will come out on top of those 3 again as I think Sky Hero needs more experience as he was still novicey that day and Dr Dependable might need another run at least. Epizeel runs in his first handicap and maiden winners can tend to struggle on their first start out of maiden company and he did benefit from getting an easy lead and his jockey could dictate things from the front. However I do think he will continue to improve and this isn't a strong race. Hurry Cane is an interesting horse as he has come over from New Zealand and his owners want to aim him at the Grand Annual. He's been running in Group races on the flat and whilst being outclassed it he is clearly the best flat horse of these. He won a maiden hurdle on his 2nd hurdle start last July and whilst that was only over 2500m, he clearly stays better if they want to run him in a Grand Annual. He trialed over fences on Thursday and I think they will want him to go close here to help get his rating up a bit.

As much as I'm not a huge fan of backing a horse in handicap company after a maiden win, especially in a maiden that wasn't that strong, clearly Epizeel has a chance in a race like this. I am though going to go with Hurry Cane who is the best of these on the flat and is clearly highly thought of if the Grand Annual is the target.

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

Race 4

The two Pateman runners Mapping and Laylite have both got awful first up records so I am happy to take them on here although Laylite especially would be good enough to win this on his best chasing form of last season. Tamarack has some useful hurdle form and ran OK in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat last August. That is is only chase start and he has had 3 flat runes for fitness last month. He has a chance here and would be the pick of the Musgrove runners, Cheners and Coleridge being the other two, for me. So Belafonte ran a huge race at double figure odds for us at Terang and was only beaten a length at the end. He has jumps fitness on his side here although this race does have more depth to it for me. Blood And Sand was finishing behind Under The Bridge last season and I don't think he will reverse form here. That brings me to Under The Bridge whose jumping let him down to start with last season as he fell at Warrnambool when bang in contention in May and then made a mistake back their the following month which cost him badly. He finally got it all together on his next start and won well. Was a good 3rd at Pakenham in a decent race after that before disappointing on his final start at Coleraine. He has has 2 jump outs a flat run and a steeple trial on Thursday to get him fit for this and that should mean he has done enough to run a big race here.

So Belafonte ran well at Terang and does have the recent run over fences edge on the rest of the field, but Under The Bridge is a very good horse whose jumping improved as the season went on and I suspect he will be using this as a nice prep race going into one of the big Pakenham races in a couple of weeks time. With plenty of the other possible winners not having great 1st up form I think he will be quite hard to beat in this.

Under The Bridge 2pts @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

[Darran]

The first all jumps card of the season comes from Pakenham and at this stage I have had chance to look at the non maiden races. Rather handily my mother in law lives in Pakenham and it was chucking it down with rain all Saturday evening and there is more rain planned during Sunday as well so I am expecting it to be Heavy ground.

 

Race 3

The first winner of 1 of the season and I would be a little surprised if one of the ex classy European horses didn't take this. It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 3 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He went hurdling at the last meeting of the season and despite not jumping all that well, his flat class told late on and he was a good winner in the end. This prep he has had a flat run and whilst he finished last he was beaten less than 3L. He then trialled over hurdles and his jumping again left a little to be desired although he did show a nice turn of foot at the end. 

 

Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He trialled over hurdles again at Yarra Valley and his jumping actually wasn't as good, but they didn't go very quick which I don't think helped.

 

Of the rest Cotton Eye Joe was quite well beaten by Port Guillaume at Ballarat last year and I'm not sure he's improved on what he's done this season. Fabalot bolted up on that Ballarat card, but it was a very weak contest so I wouldn't want to go overboard on that. 

 

Given we are looking at a heavy track and Nelson's only run on it was in the Ballysax Stakes back in 2018 when only 4 runners so I guess that is a little query whereas Port Guillaume's hurdles win was on a Heavy 10. I don't think there is as much between the two as the betting suggests, especially on the ground, so will have a small play on the ex-French horse

 

Port Guillaume 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 4

Great to see the return of Saunter Boy who won this race last year and ended up being unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles last season. His rating obviously keeps going up and he has to give a lot of weight away to the rest, but I still think he will be hard to beat as he has trialled well and ran well on the flat at Bendigo as prep for this.

 

Instigator was solid enough when last seen over hurdles in 2021 before missing 2022. He has returned in good form on the flat in 2 runs this prep including last time. Didn't show his hand in his hurdle trials and whilst he may have improved since 2021 I think he will need to if he is going to beat Saunter Boy.

 

Heir To The Throne was 2^nd in his first two hurdle runs last year and then won two on the bounce, but as impressive as he looked, they were pretty weak contests. He certainly won't lack for fitness though as he has already run 7 times on the Flat this and has been running well in decent contests. I'd say it is more his flat runs that have meant he is the price he is.

 

It is hard to make a case for the others and I if he remains in the form he was in last year then Saunter Boy will be hard to beat.

 

Saunter Boy 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill

 

Race 5

Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. The big concern for me though would be if the ground is confirmed as being very testing. He did win a novice hurdle on soft ground, but connections seemed very keen to keep him to better ground and the vast majority of his runs were on good ground. He was also a non-runner on soft ground so if the track gets into the heavy range then he might struggle.

 

I thought Under The Bridge was going to win at Hamilton, but he faded on the run-in after making his move at about the 800m mark having been held up off the pace. That should have set him up nicely for this nicely for this and given he won on a Heavy 10 last year he won't mind what the weather does.

 

They aren't messing around with sending Epizeel over fences after his two hurdle runs this season. He won first up in a maiden and then ran well enough to finish 2^nd last time. I watched his steeple at Yarra Valley and he jumped well enough, but he did make one very bad mistake. I'd rather watch to see how he gets on than back him in this.

 

In the same race Epizeel was 2^nd in I put up former New Zealand runner Hurry Cane and like Under The Bridge he loomed large only to get tired late on. He now goes over fences and he should have benefitted plenty from that run which should give him a good chance here.

 

I'd be surprised if anything else managed to win. It will be fascinating to see how Rockstar Ronnie matches up to the Australian chasers, but if it gets heavy then I think he is worth taking on and I will split stakes on Under The Bridge and Hurry Can who will both improve for their runs at Hamilton.

 

Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365

 

Race 6

I've been really excited to see Stern Idol run over fences because his trails over fences have been really good. He came over from France and looked like the best jumper in Australia until Cheltenham 3^rd Bell Ex One came over and beat him at Ballarat. As well as looking good in his trials he even won on the flat at Sandown last time and it is no real surprise to see him long odds on here.

 

When Bell Ex One and Stern Idol were running last season I did mention that I thought we would see more European horses go over to Australia and as well as Rockstar Ronnie in the previous race we also see Crosshill here. He was trained by Jessica Harrington and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. When I was looking back through his form though he beat Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia which just highlights how much prize money can be won to cover that. He has had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus. 

 

Vanguard and Britannicus were 1^st and 2^nd in the Brierly last season and will no doubt be using this race as a stepping stone to that contest this year. Neither of those two are as good as Stern Idol and Crosshill for me though. I was all set to put up Stern Idol even at long odds on, but the value has to be with Crosshill who is an e/w price. His form in Ireland should mean he chould be one of the leading jumpers in Australia and given the flat runs for fitness he should be fit enough to do himself justice.

 

Crosshill 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

[MCLARKE]

Nice one @Darran, I can only bet with BET365 so had a winner with Hurry Cane and a place wirth Crosshill, nice bonus when I got up this morning

[Darran]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nice one @Darran, I can only bet with BET365 so had a winner with Hurry Cane and a place wirth Crosshill, nice bonus when I got up this morning

Must admit I have no idea why Crosshill has been confirmed as a place given the field went down to 7 and I was very surprised to see I had been paid out. I can only think that it in Australia the place terms when you put the bet on are honored, but I honestly don't know. Still I will take it and nice to have Hurry Cane win as well. Saunter Boy was a frustrating beat and Nelson was a deserved winner.

[Darran]

Really looking forward to the next 3 days of action at Warrnambool and the jumping action looks full of quality which is great to see. Tomorrow sees 3 divisions of the maiden hurdle and the feature is the Brierly which looks a high class and open renewal.

 

Race 1

 

King's Charisma was trained by David O'Meara in this country and was a useful handicapper as well. Current connections paid £170k for him and whilst he's been running OK they would probably be a little disappointed that all he's done is win a Horsham Cup whilst in Oz. He's had 3 hurdle trials which have been fairly quiet, but he jumps well enough and flat wise he is the best of these. Vividredsky was 2^nd in a BM70 at Moonee Valley in February so also has a fair level of ability, but he hasn't won for over 800 days. He didn't run very well on the flat last time, but did win a hurdles trial prior to that. His jumping wasn't great to start with, but he did warm to the task. Pure Deal was 3^rd on hurdles debut last time at Pakenham and it was a solid enough run, but I do sense that King's Charisma would have been good enough to win that maiden. Summerhill looks a big price as he was better at Pakenham on his 2^nd hurdles start when 3^rd in the other maiden.

 

King's Charisma's connections will be hoping for a strong carnival and I think he can get them off to a get start given his flat class and I saw enough in his trials to think he is good enough to win this.

 

King's Charisma 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power and Betfred

 

Race 2

Teofilo Star is the favourite here on the back of a very good hurdles debut at Pakenham. Not sure this race is any stronger than that and with him racing in the worst part of the track down the home straight he was probably a bit unlucky not to have won. Maher & Eustace have a couple in this and Reserve Street is the more fancied one in the market. He's solid enough on the flat and runs in a lot of the Cups at the Country tracks. I wasn't a fan of his jumping though in his last trial recently and that puts me off here. Aquileon is the other one from the stable and he had 4 starts for Roger Varian in 2020 without success. He's won 3 races in Oz and I did prefer his trial to his stablemates. Half Mast is interesting as he is a rare horse who has never run in a race before going jumping. His trial wasn't bad last time so he might be OK. Killourney managed a couple of placings in maiden hurdles last year and might be capable of better this time around. 

 

He is quite short, but Teofilo Star does look the most likely winner for me with him being a bit unfortunate not to win at Pakenham. I don't think this race is any stronger so will take him to go one better.

 

Teofilo Star 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Coral

 

Race 3

Impulsar has been the big talking horse ahead of this as Eustace put it up as a horse to follow on Saturday. There was plenty to like in his hurdles trial at Terang as he jumped well on the whole and wasn't extended at all as he allowed the winner to go past him. He did start life in Ireland with Joseph O'Brian and won on his 2^nd start just 12 days after making his debut in October 2021. He went to Australia after that and has done well winning another 3 races in just 6 starts. He's by Frankel and he could turn into a top jumper. His stablemate Carisbrook might be the main danger as he has looked good in his trials, but clearly connections think Impulsar is the one to be with and I think he is going to be hard to beat.

 

Impulsar 2pts @ Evs with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Coral

 

Race 6

The feature race on day 1 is the Brierly and it is a cracking line up. Flying Agent has a cracking record over course and distance as he is 3/4 and he has a great record on a heavy track should they get lots of rain. He landed the Thackeray Chase here last July in really good style. He went on to win the Crisp Steeplechase at Sandown the following month and had Valac back in 3rd. After that he was beaten just 0.85L into 3^rd in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat. He has had a great prep run on the flat at Bendigo early this month and he then put in a very impressive trial here on April 21st. He has a big chance.

 

Inayforhay has only had one start over fences, but that was a win in the 2021 Grand National Chase so it was an impressive one. He then missed the whole of 2022 jumps wise and didn't return until November. He won at Bendigo in December and then he had another spell for 14 weeks. His flat run last month at Stawell looked a perfect prep for going back over fences, but I do wonder if he will need further. Even so he is still a possible winner here.

 

Like Inayforhay, St Arnicca took last season's Grand National Chase on his chasing debut. He had shown good hurdling form prior to that having finished 2^nd in the Grand National Hurdle. He's not shown a great deal so far on the flat this prep and was just fair in a trial on April 21st. Again, another with a chance, but he might need further.

 

Riding High has a very good jumps record winning 5 times for 11 starts and won on his last start over fences which came at Pakenham last April. Obviously injured after that and has had 4 flat starts plus a couple of trials this year to prepare for this. Another one with a chance, but I just wonder if he will be quite good enough.

 

Bee Tee Junior is a gallant old timer who ran well behind Stern Idol at Pakenham last time. I can see him running well, but I would be a little surprised if he was quite good enough.

 

Britannicus ran a huge race in this last year and it was a great battle between him and Vanguard who just got up in the final few yards to beat his stablemate. He build up a big lead and he didn't handle the bend well after the Tozer Road crossing which probably cost him. He won the Australian Chase after that, but then finished lame after the Thackeray so was spelled. He has had a couple of flat runs and a few trials as a prep for this and his last trial here was very good last the other day. I don't think he wants it very wet, but otherwise he has a good chance.

 

Valac is favourite at the time of writing and he was bang in contention in this race last year when falling at out. He then fell again at Sale, but finally won again at Pakenham in testing ground. He was 3^rd behind Flying Agent in the Crisp and then 4^th in the Grand National Steeplechase. I suspect he didn't quite stay in those two races and this trip is much more suitable. Sure to go close again if his jumping holds up, but I'm not sure I would have him as favourite.

 

We saw a fantastic race last year and this looks a wide open and classy affair. I am going to go with Flying Agent to win as he has a great record here and looks to have returned in great form based on his flat run and his trial. I would make him favourite myself. All the horses I have named above have some sort of chance, but I will cover Britannicus as well. It was a huge run in this last year and as long as the going doesn't get too testing I think he will be primed to run a big race.

 

Flying Agent 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill

Britannicus 0.5pts @ 6/1 with most bookies

[MCLARKE]

Thanks for that Darran, could only get a bet on with Britannicus but a nice 6/1 winner !

[Darran]

A cracking 1st day with 3 of the 4 winners and I felt that if the horse in the 1st had been given a better ride he would have won as well. Day 2 sees a very competitive BM120 Chase and the feature hurdle of the week the Galleywood.

 

Race 4

I don't think I have seen a BM120 have a maximum field since I started betting on Aussie jumps racing so this feels a bit unusual for me. Tolemac has been very well backed in the early markets as he makes his chasing debut. He was fairly consistent over hurdles last season just winning the once at Hamilton on a Heavy 10 track so we know he will handle the ground. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat for fitness and he jumped like a pro in his trial here a few days ago. I suspect he has been lined up for this given connections. His train has a strong hand though and Count Zero is next in the betting. He took the opening chase of the season at Terang when I took him on because I didn't like how he jumped in his trials, but he still just about managed to beat So Belafonte. He jumped terribly again to start with in the trial here last month behind Roland Garros, but he did improve as the trial went on. I suspect he will need to improve on that to take this especially off top weight. Speaking of Roland Garros he is also near the head of the market. He won on his chasing debut at Coleraine last August when going well clear and just holding on. It will be interesting to see if similar tactics are used here as I just wonder if he will see the trip out in this ground if he does. He disappointed a couple of weeks after that win when pulling up at Ballarat. 

 

Under The Bridge is the 3rd Wilde runner and I fancied him to win at Hamilton on his chasing return, but in the end he failed to see the race out well enough have travelled nicely into contention having been held up out the back. He should come on for that and he has won here on a Heavy 10 surface as well. I think he has the form to go well in this as well. Lord Pierro looks the other one to consider and he was even more impressive at his fences than Tolemac in the same trial here a couple of weeks ago. The problem is Tolmac did have more speed for him on the flat and I do wonder if he is going to have the ability at this stage to win a race like this. He's only 5 and only had 10 races and the testing ground is an unknown as well, but his jumping will likely take him a long way.

 

I'd be a bit surprised if anything else was able to win. The money for Tolemac is really interesting and I loved the way he trialed so I will have him as the main bet. I will also cover his stablemate Under The Bridge who should come on for the 2nd at Hamilton and at least we know conditions and track will hold no fear for him.

 

Tolemac 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Under The Bridge 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 6

Saunter Boy won all 5 hurdle races he ran in last season including just getting up to win this contest. I thought he would cope with giving a huge amount of weight away to his rivals at Pakenham last month, but he couldn't quite see off Blandford Lad on the run to the line. Given this isn't a handicap he doesn't have to give anywhere near as much weight away to the 6 of the horses who ran that day and are also running in this. Based on that he really ought to have the beating of them. He is odds on, but he deserves to be odds on and I think he is still value at the current odds.

 

Saunter Boy 3pts @ 17/20 with Bet365

[Darran]

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.

Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.

Race 1

Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 

Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 

Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 

Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.

I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.

Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill

Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill

Race 7

The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.

Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.

Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.

Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.

Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.

Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.

Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.

Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill

Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.

Cheers Darran, always nice to wake up to a couple of winners

Out of interest I backed Saunter Boy on the exchanges, the price was good (2.03) but the commission was 7% rather than the normal 2% which I wasn't aware of

[paceman]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Cheers Darran, always nice to wake up to a couple of winners

Out of interest I backed Saunter Boy on the exchanges, the price was good (2.03) but the commission was 7% rather than the normal 2% which I wasn't aware of

Yes,just realised the same 6.8% commission,but,well done again Darren

[Darran]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Cheers Darran, always nice to wake up to a couple of winners

Out of interest I backed Saunter Boy on the exchanges, the price was good (2.03) but the commission was 7% rather than the normal 2% which I wasn't aware of

No idea on that one to be honest. Could be something to ask Betfair as to why that is the case.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

No idea on that one to be honest. Could be something to ask Betfair as to why that is the case.

It looks like they have different rates for different countries based on the rules and regulations of each particular country.

[Darran]

Casterton is the venue tomorrow morning. We have two divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle featuring Cheltenham 3rd Bell Ex One and then a handicap chase over their hedge fences.

Race 1

A few of these ran against each other at Warrnambool last week and for me the two to focus on are Quiet Escape and Carisbrook who finished 2nd and 3rd to Impulsar and there was just 0.25L between them. There is an extra 300m to go in this race and the ground wont be so testing, but both horses seemed to stay on well enough and it is hard to split them. I think one of them will win and both are bigger than they should be so I will split my stakes and back them both. Booker Tee was 5th in that race and did stay on, but his jumping was not good and he might need more experience. Killourney was 6th in one of the other maiden hurdles at Warrnambool, but he's starting to look a bit exposed with that being his 5th hurdle start. Abreed made his hurdles debut at Pakenham and didn't really travel at all after knuckling on landing at the 1st. He is probably capable of better, but not sure he can beat the two at the head of the market. A shade of odds on coupled seems fair enough to me.

Carisbrook 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

Quiet Escape 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365

Race 2

Vividredsky is favourite for this, but that surprises me a bit because he was very ordinary at Warrnambool last week and it almost seems as if he's been put in as market leader just because he was short in the betting that day. Obviously there is scope for improvement, but he looks worth opposing for me. A couple who finished in front of him are much bigger in the betting although I'm going to look elsewhere. I thought that Fiorente Lass ran really well on her hurdles debut to finish 2nd at Pakenham. I felt she was running on the worst of the track as well and the front 3 pulled well clear of the rest. I'd have her as favourite for this so will take her to go one place better.

Fiorente Lass 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

Race 3

A slight concern that Bell Ex One wasn't great on the flat last time, but that was his first run since Melbourne Cup day and I suspect he will come on plenty for it. He finished 3rd in the Fred Winter last season and then went to Australia and he was superb on his first start of hurdles at Ballarat where he beat Stern Idol. For me it was the best hurdling performance in Australia last season and whilst he has to give plenty of weight away here he is classy enough to still win. I was very impressed with his young jockey at Warrnambool and the 3kg he takes off will be very handy. Heir To The Throne ran OK on his first hurdles start of the season when 5th and this better ground should help him. Fabalot put a a disappointing run at Pakenham behind him when 2nd to Saunter Boy at Warrnambool last week. A repeat of that makes him the main danger, but I think Bell Ex One can win this despite the weight.

Bell Ex One 2pts @ 15/8 with William Hill

Race 4

Elvision loves this unique course and distance. He won all 3 races over this course and distance last season including this race by 25L. He did come into this having finished 2nd at Warrnambool, but even though he was only 6th last week he was running in the Brierly rather than the BM120 handicap and it was a perfectly good effort. It was a step forward from his return at Pakenham and I would be amazed if his trainer hadn't been working towards this race. Historic often chases Elvision home and he did win last time at Warrnambool back in March, but that race wasn't very strong and I don't see him beating his old rival here. Two chasing newcomers in Armansky and Rudimental are the slight unknowns especially the former who has shown a little over hurdles. If Elvision is in peak form though I don't see him getting beaten as he just thrives over the hedge fences here.

Elvison 2.5pts @ 13/8 with William Hill

[Darran]

Race 2

The Australian Steeplechase is almost a re-run of the Brierly at Warrnambool with the first 4 home all taking each other on again here. Britannicus came out on top that day after a superb move from his jockey when they took the sharp turn back onto the course proper. He won this race last year, but it wasn't a strong contest at all and I'm not sure he's a true stayer at this trip. The ground was pretty quick last year as well and I think it will be a bit softer this time around. He also received 3kg from Flying Agent 3 weeks ago and now he only gets 1kg and there was just 1.75L between them. Flying Agent made the running that day and had a decent lead at one stage before being over taken at that turn. Down the straight he dropped to 3rd behind Valac, but found more on the run to the line to get closer than seemed likely to finish 2nd. I think this trip will bring added to the weight turn around will mean Flying Agent will come out on top here. I also get the feeling he might find more improvement from that run. Valac was 3rd at Warrnambool, but this trip stretches him so he's not for me. 

There is one horse who didn't run in the Brierly who has to be considered and that is the winner of the BM120 Chase at the meeting, Tolemac. This race is obviously stronger, but he was really well backed and bolted up on his chasing debut. At this stage I still fancy Flying Agent to be the better horse, but it wouldn't surprise me if he went close.

Flying Agent 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Race 4

This is a fascinating BM120 hurdle and a really strong contest. The 3 maiden hurdle winners from Warrnambool all line up here and Impulser is the favourite. He was the big talking horse going into the contest and he made all to win comfortably enough. The ex Joseph O'Brian son of Frankel should come on for the experience, but I wasn't as wowed as I thought I would be by his win. Pure Deal won division 1, but he did so in the slowest time of the 3 and he has already finished behind, albeit just, Teofilo Star at Pakenham in April. Teofilo Star actually clocked the fastest time of the 3 winners and I was really impressed with his 8L victory. His jockey can claim which will come in handy and for me he is the one they have to beat.

The other one to consider is another son of Frankel in the shape of Nelson, who won his first 2 starts over hurdles. He was then soundly beaten by Circle The Sun in the Champion Novice though when a 5.25L 2nd. Circle The Sun had just got the better of Teofilo Star at Pakenham so on a line through him he should have the beating of Nelson.

Teofilo Star 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365

Race 5

Amazingly given how often he wins Saunter Boy is usually a backable price and he was certainly superb value when winning the Galleywood a couple of weeks ago. Blandford Lad who had beaten him at Pakenham could only finish 4th at Warrnambool, but that race was set weights and this is back into a handicap so in theory that gives him a chance a again. Even so I think Saunter Boy can land this race for the 3rd time running as for me he improved from Pakenham to Warrnambool and he loves it at Sandown. The interesting one is Circle The Sun who jumps up into this company having won his maiden and then impressing in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool. He's only 5 and he might well win one of these one day, but I'm not sure he's quite up to it just yet. Saunter Boy is too short to back on this occasion though so it will be a sit and watch race and hopefully we see another special performance from the grey superstar.

[Darran]

We go to Hamilton on Tuesday morning for the next jumps meeting. There are 5 races on the card with 2 divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle, a maiden steeplechase and a handicap steeplechase. It's not the easiest punting card, but we have some very competitive races. Also as Oddschecker doesn't have the meeting up yet these are all Bet365 prices and bigger might be available elsewhere.

Race 1

Abreed was a bit disappointing on debut, but that was a hot maiden and he was much better at Casterton a couple of weeks ago when a good 2^nd to Killourney having been on the pace for most of the race. Chance the Heavy 10 ground was to blame at Pakenham, but he has won on a Heavy track before so that shouldn't be an issue.

 

Field If Lights made his hurdles debut at Warrnambool 2 years ago and was beaten just 0.4L into 3^rd place. He clearly got an injury because he wasn't seen for 101 weeks. He seems to have been working his way to fitness and was a good 4^th in the Casterton Cup 2 years ago. With that good run behind him he is a chance based on his hurdles debut.

 

Frankenstar is making his hurdles debut and he won a BM58 over 2440m at Geelong a month ago.  He did win a hurdles trial at Terang just before and jumped well in that and although he was 6^th in a trial at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago he wasn't really asked for an effort.

 

King's Charisma ran well to finish 2^nd to Pure Deal at Warrnambool on his hurdles debut and he has won a trial back there since. He lost to Pure Deal that day and whilst he was beaten last week at Sandown I still think that was a good effort.

 

Saint Eustace was 5^th when Pure Deal was 3^rd at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and hasn't been seen anywhere since. His trainer/jockey said he would look to ride him closer to the pace in future and given his flat form it would be no surprise if he improved from that effort.

 

The last one to consider is The Rattlin' Bog who was beaten 8L by Teofilo Star into 2^nd place on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool. That's looking a good run given how impressive Teofilo Star was at Sandown last week.

 

I think this is a tough race to call as you can make a case for any of the above, but I think at the prices Saint Eustace is worth a small bet. He has top class flat form and it was a solid debut at Pakenham last time. If Pateman rides him closer to the pace then I am expecting improvement to come.

 

Saint Eustace 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365

 

Race 2

Australian middle distance flat racing often gets rubbished on Twitter by people who know little about it and they always highlight something like Zaaki suddenly winning Group 1's. What they don't realise is numerous horses go from here to Australia and the vast majority don't do very much and Dashing Willoughby is firmly in the later camp. He won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes in July 2020 at Sandown and was sent over for the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. He was last at Caulfield and beat 2 home at Flemington. In 11 runs since he has been terrible and not beaten very many horses. I watched his last hurdles trial, and he didn't jump well to start with, but got better the longer the trial went on.

 

It will be interesting to see how he gets on, but it is no surprise that True Marvel is the long odds on favourite. 2 starts back he finished 2^nd in the Group 1 Sydney Cup at 150/1. That clearly was a huge run and he was OK last time when 8^th in the Andrew Ramsden. I liked the way he jumped in his hurdle trial at Terang. He's too short to have a bet on, but he really should be winning this based on his flat form.

 

Race 3

I guess there is a chance Bell Ex One has gone the wrong way and I can't be as confident as I was ahead of his Casterton run, but he has to be the bet here. Just to remind people that he finished 3^rd in last year's Fred Winter at Cheltenham and was superb in his hurdles debut in Oz last August. For me the Casterton effort looked a fitness run and hopefully he can show how good he is here. Even with top weight he will win this if at his best.

 

Post Guillaume is favourite, but he's been a bit disappointing the last twice and I want to see more before he is of interest. Twin Spinner is fairly consistent and although he was a well beaten 3^rd behind Teofilo Star last weekend, it was a fair return to hurdles. If Abreed wins the first then that will be a big form boost to Killourney who put in a nice performance to beat him at Casterton. Even so I'm not sure he warrants being so short here.

 

Bell Ex One 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

 

Race 4

There are only 2 maiden steeplechases during the season and this is the first one. There is a few in with a chance in what is an open race and I will take two against the field. Granted Tom Foolery was really pushed out in his trail at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago and Furioso wasn't given as a strenuous ride, but he was still impressive in beating him by 18L. I really like the way he jumped the fences though and I thought he ran a nice race last time when 3^rd behind Killourney at Casterton. Given Furioso is the favourite I think the value certainly lies with Tom Foolery The other one worth a small bet is Mighty Oasis. He was 2^nd behind Historic at Warrnambool in March and then was a bit disappointing when 6^th at Pakenham. The run that caught my eye though was at Warrnambool when he was just getting himself into contention when he fell at 3 out. Obviously hard to know where he would have finished, but that was a strong race and he has run a nice race on the flat since so seems in good form. 

 

Tom Foolery 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365

 

Race 5

Competitive handicap chase this. Riding High has top weight and he ran well to finish 2^nd in the Australia Chase last weekend and he'd run a solid 4^th in the Brierly prior to that. The issue is he has never been placed in 6 starts on a Heavy track and that might stop him along with the weight.

 

Historic won this race last year and having won a weak race at Warrnambool in March he finished 2^nd to Casterton specialist Elvison a couple of weeks ago. For me though this race is stronger than last year's running and he might be a bit too high in the weights to win a race like this now, but he should run his race.

 

Roland Garros would be an apt winner given the French Open is going on at the moment. He has been a bit in and out over fences, but although he was 14L when 3^rd behind Tolemac and Under The Bridge at Warrnambool, I thought it was a nice run for his first start over fences this prep. You would imagine he will come for the run and he has won a trial since.

 

Castrofrancaru won both hurdle starts last season and it is interesting they are going straight over fences with him this season. He comes here in good form as he won a BM58 on the flat at Kyneton earlier in the month. He then had a first steeple trial at Traralgon and whilst he jumped well on the whole he did jump out to his right a bit. It wasn't really bad, but against some experienced chasers it might not help him first up over fences in a proper race.

 

I really liked Hurry Cane's win at Pakenham where he beat Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He was only 6^th behind him at Warrnambool, but he just didn't stay the 5500m trip. He drops back to 3400m here and he thrives on a Heavy track so has plenty in his favour.

 

The other one to consider is Under The Bridge who ran a solid race on his chasing return over 3200m here in April. He then went to Warrnambool and was 2^nd to his stablemate Tolemac who franked the form at Sandown last weekend. He was 8L in front of Roland Garros that day and whilst that one does have the scope to improve fitness wise, I still think Under The Bridge has a very good chance of upholding the form.

 

So from those 6 I am going to whittle it down to two. Hurry Cane just didn't stay in the Grand Annual and I think his Pakenham win should make him favourite for this. The other one to back is Under The Bridge who has run really solidly in both starts this season and given what Tolemac did at Sandown, there was nothing wrong in being 8L behind him.

 

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365

Under The Bridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

[Darran]

Tomorrow morning sees the last of the jumps meetings that doesn't take place on a Sunday with 4 races at Sale. The handicaps are pretty low grade stuff although the maiden hurdles have a couple of good flat horses making their hurdles debuts and the 2nd one especially could have some depth to it.

Race 1

Royal Crown is the favourite for this given his flat form is the best of these. So far this prep he has finished 4^th at Warrnambool and 5^th at Cranbourne which were fair efforts. I've watched both his hurdle trials from last month and it was OK, but I wasn't always impressed with his hurdling technique so at even money I will look elsewhere. He has been well backed.

 

The other main hurdling newcomer is Zoffala and he's running at a fair level on the flat albeit he's been quite well beaten the last twice and was behind Royal Crown at Warrnambool. Sometimes he was very good over his hurdles in his trial, but other times he made little errors so again I will look elsewhere.

 

Aquila Volare and Abreed are the pick of those that have run over hurdles. The former's 4^th at Warrnambool was a fair effort on his hurdles debut, but I am going to side with Abreed. He went into his hurdles debut at Pakenham in April on the back of a very good flat run, but he disappointed only finishing 7th. That was a good race though and I think he got stuck in the mud as he was much better last time at Casterton when finishing 2^nd to Killourney. He was in 2^nd place for most of the way and just didn't have enough left late on to repeal the winner. That race was over 3500m so the drop back to 3240m ought to suit. The ground that day should be similar to what he will face here and I will take his hurdling experience over the newcomers.

 

Abreed 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365

 

Race 2

This could be quite a decent maiden. Aquileon easily has the best form of those who have run over hurdles so far with his 3^rd behind Teofilo Star at Warrnambool. The 2^nd ran well enough on his next start before falling and the 4^th won the maiden steeplechase last week. Chance that form might be good enough, but there are a few promising newcomers.

 

Mahamedeis has plenty of class on the flat and has been running in very good races this prep. He showed enough to me that he will make a handy hurdler. 

 

The other newcomers wouldn't be as classy on the level, but I thought their trails all looked decent. Alexander Hamilton's last hurdles trial was 2 months ago, but he jumped well enough and has been in good form at a lowly level on the flat since. Poleaxed looked to enjoy his jumping in his trial last time and then he went onto win a BM58 at Geelong 3 weeks ago. That's Incranibull has some fair flat form as well and he jumped well on his trail last time in behind the top class Wil John.

 

Flat ability doesn't always win out, but given the ground looks like being quick for a jumps meeting in Australia I think Mahamedeis superior flat ability will be key. He jumped well in his trials as well and I think there is still a bit of juice in his price.

 

Mahamedeis 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

 

Race 3

This is a 0-114 hurdle and it is pretty weak stuff. I'm surprised to see Cernan as favourite as his hurdles profile is not great having won once in 8 starts and never hitting the frame otherwise. He has been in good form on the level though and won on his last start so I'm guessing that's why he heads the betting, but I'm happy to look elsewhere.

 

El Diez is interesting as I think he is in a race he is actually capable of winning which doesn't happen very often. He was a staying on 3^rd at Hamilton last time and his jockey didn't really ask him for an effort until late on. A repeat of that effort though should see him go close.

 

The other one I like is Tom Foolery. I put him up at Hamilton last week in the maiden steeplechase and he never really got the ideal run as he wanted lead and couldn't. He then also wasn't able to get cover and he was pulled up after the 2^nd last. Quicker ground here might well help him and I think in this lesser field that he can dictate things from the front. His Casterton 3^rd in a maiden gives him a chance in a handicap like this.

 

El Diez 0.5pts @ 18/5 with Bet365

Tom Foolery 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

 

Race 4

It is no surprise that Castrofrancaru is odds on for this because he was really impressive on chasing debut at Hamilton last week. A few of these were in behind as well and whilst the ground will be very different, he did win on this sort of ground at Coleraine last August. He's 3/3 over jumps now and this race is easier then last weeks so it is hard to see him being beaten.

 

Historic apparently didn't handle conditions, but he won that race last year on a Heavy 10. He is usually pretty solid though so has place claims. Not Usual Dream has been running OK in better races than this including in the Australian Steeplechase last time when 4th. He is yet to win though in 15 starts over jumps and whilst he has place claims it is hard to see him winning.

 

I am going to have a small bet on So Belafonte to place. He was a good 2^nd on chasing debut at Terang in March and then he was pulled up last time in a much better race at Warrnambool in very testing ground. On this better ground he is capable of hitting the frame and is value to do so.

 

So Belafonte 0.5pts to place @ 3/1 with Bet365

 

[Bedlam]

👏👏👏 4/4 Great tipping Darran.

[MCLARKE]

Cheers Darran, a nice £100 profit to wake up to

[Darran]

Well last Wednesday could hardly of gone any better with 4 winning bets from the 4 races. Hopefully we can have a similar story on Sunday morning as we head back to Warrnambool for 3 races. There is plenty of interest from an ex UK and Irish point of view with Kings Charisma, Dashing Willoughby and Nelson all in action.

Race 1

There are a handful you could give a chance to here although I do think it is mainly between the top 2 in the betting. Quiet Escape ran well over course and distance in May and looked like she didn't really stay last time at Casterton so she has a chance. Carisbrook was an even bigger disappointment at Casterton finishing 8^th having been just behind Quiet Escape when 3rd here the time before. and a return to that form would give him a squeak. His stablemate Kings Charisma is currently favourite and he started life off over here. He's run really well on both hurdles start to date having finished 2^nd over course and distance and then 2^nd again at Hamilton behind the impressive Frakenstar. A repeat of those two efforts might well be good enough and give the Maher & Eustace a winner ahead of Coolangatta's run at Royal Ascot on Tuesday. I am however going to oppose him another ex UK horse in the shape of Dashing Willoughby. I didn't really fancy him on his hurdles debut at Hamilton last month as he's not shown his ability from the UK on the flat in Australia, but I thought it was a really promising effort behind a top class flat horse in the shape of True Marvel. That horse had finished 2^nd in the Sydney Cup and last week he was 3^rd in the Brisbane Cup so I think to finish as close as he did, especially as he didn't get a clear run, was a really good effort. Therefore I will take him over Kings Charisma.

 

Dashing Willoughby 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill and Betfred

 

Race 2

A handicap hurdle where St Leger 7^th and Arc 8th, Nelson bids to get his hurdles career back on track. He won on debut and then was 2^nd to Circle The Sun over course and distance last month. He then went to Sandown where he puled up, but the vet discovered a cardiac arrhythmia so he has an excuse for his poor run. On his previous hurdles runs he has a strong chance. Twin Spinner also ran in that Sandown race and he finished a well beaten 3rd. Interestingly he was behind Cleaver that day and Nelson beat Cleaver at Pakenham. I did think Twin Spinner did well last time though having just about made all to win and he battled very hard to beat Rising Renown. Cleaver has finished 2^nd on the flat since the Sandown effort. He was only beaten a length by Nelson at Pakenham off level weights and now he gets 2gks from Nelson so he has a solid chance. Rising Renown is also in this race although I don't think he can reverse form with Twin Spinner or Nelson. El Diez was 3^rd in that Hamilton race and did us a nice turn at Sale last week, but this race is much stronger and I can't see him following up. The one horse I haven't mentioned yet is the favourite Frankenstar who as mentioned above was impressive in beating King's Charisma and clearly if that one wins the 1^st it will be a good form boost. This looks a decent handicap, but I'm going to go with Nelson. Given what Circle The Sun did in the Australian Hurdle I think the 2^nd to him over course and distance is the best form in the race. Clearly we can put a line through his last effort and we know he loves a heavy track.

 

Nelson 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill

 

Race 3

A 0-114 Steeplechase and this is pretty weak stuff mainly featuring horses who get stuffed all the time. The fact that Contredeel is 3^rd in the betting despite never having placed in 3 hurdles starts and then was pulled up in a maiden chase last time tells you all you need to know. The horse who finished 2^nd in that race, Gunaluva is one of the two possible winners. It was a solid run although the form is yet to be really tested. He had previously finished 2^nd over hurdles at Casterton and he is the horse that has been backed in the early markets. Also running at that Casterton meeting was Armansky and I thought he ran really well to finish 3^rd to Elvision on his chasing debut. That horse loves it at Casterton so to finish 3^rd to him was a good effort and he would have finished 2^nd had he not been hampered by a horse stumbling at 2 out because he was flying late and just failed to get up for 2nd. He has finished 2^nd in a flat race at Bendigo since so he clearly continues to be in good form. As long as he brings the Casterton performance over their hedge fences to the normal fences here then he is the one to beat for me because I rate that form higher than Gunaluva's. If anything else wins then fair play to anyone who finds it because I find it hard to give them any sort of chance.

 

Armansky 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill

[MCLARKE]

Hi Darran, do you get BOG with Betfred and WH on Australian racing ?

[Darran]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Hi Darran, do you get BOG with Betfred and WH on Australian racing ?

Pretty sure you don't although I don't get BOG with them anyway so I've never actually checked.

[Torque]

On 5/3/2023 at 5:48 PM, MCLARKE said:

It looks like they have different rates for different countries based on the rules and regulations of each particular country.

Australian bets have always been different. Years ago Betfair operated a separate wallet which you had to move money into to bet on anything taking place in Australia. Now that's gone but as you previously alluded to, the commission for Australian bets remains higher than other bets. My understanding is it has to do with betting tax, although I might be wrong about that.

[Darran]

Back to Casterton on Sunday morning and one of the best sights in racing, Elvison jumping over the hedge fences, is the highlight of the 3 races over jumps.

Race 1

We start as ever with a maiden hurdle and this looks a pretty weak affair which is likely to be won by either That's Incranibull and Zoffala who both ran on the Sale card at the start of the month in different divisions of the maiden hurdle. Zoffala was 2nd having made the running and it was a good effort, but his form on heavy ground isn't great and I think the maiden That's Incranibull was 3rd in was the stronger of the two races. The winning time was quicker and he has won on a heavy track before so I give him the edge and make him the selection.

I'm not too worried about anything else in the race, but I will be having a small e/w bet on the top one, Capellini. He hasn't beaten a horse in 4 flat starts this year so that is clearly a concern, but he showed ability over hurdles last season finishing 3rd 3 times on the bounce including in this race. The form of those efforts are good enough to see him involved and the only reason we are getting the price we are is because of the shocking flat form. I should add though that a couple of those runs were over 1400m which clearly wouldn't have suited and I have to have a little on in the hope a return to hurdles will kick him back into gear.

That's Incranibull 1.5pts @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfred

Capellini 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Race 2

If Zoffala does happen to win the first race then it would be a big boost to Abreed's chances in this BM120 hurdle. I put him up in that race and I can see why he's favourite in this as he was 2nd on debut over C&D before that Sale victory. He might well be good enough to win and it isn't an overly strong race, but at around even money the price is tight enough so I will look elsewhere.

Lucky Plutus won the other division of the maiden hurdle over C&D last month and he's run solid on the flat since then. Gunaluva was 2nd that day and he's done well in two races over fences since so the form looks OK and he has a chance. The one I am going to side with though is Count Zero. Not surprisingly he was outclassed in the Australian Hurdle last time, but there was plenty to like in his other 2 runs over jumps this year having won the first chase of the season at Terang and then finishing a 0.1L 2nd in the handicap over C&D last month. The jockey said he didn't like the ground at Sandown, but he finished 2nd in worse at Warrnambool last year so that doesn't concern me.

Count Zero 1pt @ 10/3 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

Race 4

I'm obviously going to be with Elvision here as his record round this unique course speaks for itself, I will add though that this is probably the best field he has faced round here. Roland Garros is a solid horse and has finished 3rd and 2nd in his two chase runs this season. At Hamilton last time though he jumped out to his right and given how well Elvision jumps round here that is surely going to hinder him. I do like Elvision's stablemate Under The Bridge, but he was a bit disappointing behind Roland Garros at Hamilton. He had finished in front of him at Warrnambool though so he is capable, but I don't think he's good enough to beat Elvision. 

I still can't believe what Armansky did last week at Warrnambool. He was really backed and he decided to run out at the 9th. I think he would have won, but he was 3rd to Elvision here last month and I can't see him reversing that form. Unusually Elvision isn't even top weight as Riding High is and he was 3rd in that Hamilton race mentioned above. He's a solid horse and runs in the big races, but as much as he ran well on a Heavy track last time he usually likes it quicker. He would well end up being the main danger though.

So I am firmly with Elvision to make it a 6th victory at the track.

Elvision 2pts @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred

[Darran]

Shame we lost Casterton last week, but we have a fantastic card to look forward to at Warrnambool on Sunday morning with a few ex UK horses in action across the 6 races.

Race 1

In the 3 and a bit seasons I have been punting on Aussie jumps racing I don't remember seeing a 3yo run in a race, but that happens in the 1^st division of the maiden hurdle. Gwem Goes Further has only had 4 starts on the flat and has had a couple of hurdle trials last month and it is the one here that interests me. Whilst you can never go overboard about the form he did have Bee Tee Junior and Wil John behind as well as Hogan who runs in this. What I liked about the effort is he jumped and well and given he was a bit keen early on his jockey let him stride out and he was still strong over the line. In a proper race he will want to settle a bit better, but he seemed to enjoy his jumping which is crucial. Hogan has been running OK on the flat and jumped well also but I prefer the 3yo.

 

The Rattlin' Bog is the market leader based on the 2^nd to Teofilo Star over course and distance in May. The ground is going to be very different though and he looked booked for only 3^rd when falling at 2 out at Hamilton. He was 6^th in a flat race last week at Werribee.

 

Praise The Power has shown some ability so far with a 3^rd at Casterton and then a 4^th at Hamilton, but he will probably have to improve again to land this. Raise Your Sights bled on hurdles debut last year so we can ignore that effort, but he came into the race in better form on the flat than he does now. He was 2^nd in a trial behind Stern Idol last time and jumped well, but the rest never really tried to catch him up so he might be flattered by that a bit.

 

I put up Capelliani last week and I have to do so again at a massive price. As I said then the concern is he's just lost his form totally, but on his hurdles form last year he would be a single figure price for this so I will take a chance and this doesn't look a strong race. Annoyingly we are down to 2 places though. The Rattlin' Bog is the right favourite, but as well as Capelliani I will be backing Gwem Goes Further as there was plenty to like about his hurdles trial last time and he had some good horses behind him.

 

Gwem Goes Further 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Capelliani 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill

 

Race 2

Le Baol is another ex-European horse going hurdling. He started life in France and won a listed race before having one start and well beaten by Trueshan in the Old Rowley Cup in October 2019. Just under a year later he won on his first start in Australia, but he hasn't won since. He has been in good form on the flat though as he was 4^th in the Warrnambool Cup in May and then he ran really well at Flemington last time when 4^th behind Port Guillaume. There was a really strong wind that day and he was stuck on the outside feeling the full force of it so he comes out with plenty of credit. He jumped well in his last trial so that shouldn't be an issue.

 

Dashing Willoughby has another go over hurdles, but I was a bit disappointed with him over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and I don't think here was any improvement from his Hamilton 2nd. I think he might need a weaker race. 

 

Mount Stewart is interesting as he landed a bumper for Shaun Crawford at Newcastle in November 2020 beating Tommy's Oscar into 2^nd place. They then sold him for £80k to current connections and he won on debut in Oz at Coleraine in August 2021. Not surprisingly he was sent off an odds on fav on his hurdles debut at Ballarat, but after travelling really well into the race he didn't respond to pressure. However he was found to be lame after the race and he wasn't seen again until a jumpout in May so clearly it was a bad injury to keep him off for so long. He only beat one home on the flat at Geelong last month, but it wasn't a bad run for his first proper race back. I thought he trialled nicely 4 days later as well as he saw the trial out well and jumped well. He might need the run, but I think it is very interesting that they are going straight back over hurdles with him rather than give him another flat run.

 

Nothin' Leica High ran well at Sale last time in handicap company when 2nd, but that was a weak race and this is stronger on paper. South Pacific ran well enough to finish 3^rd at Hamilton just behind Dashing Willoughby. He landed the 2019 King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and whilst he isn't as good now if he improves for that first hurdles run he's not without a chance.

 

I can fully understand why Le Baol is odds on for this and he's the most likely winner, but I think Mount Stewart is worth backing e/w. He was looking very good before going lame at Ballarat and whilst he might need another run, he has the potential to be a really good horse over jumps so I will take a chance on him at a fair price.

 

Mount Stewart 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Race 3

This is a handicap for horses that have won once over hurdles. That usually is a maiden win, but Bedford won a 0-114 hurdle at Coleraine last August. He'd need to improve on tat and has yet to be seen over hurdles this season, but to be fair he did run well on the flat 3 weeks ago at Mornington. Speaking of the flat Frankenstar ran over 3600m on Thursday at Bendigo when finishing a good 4th. He beat King's Charisma at Hamilton on his hurdles debut and then was a little disappointing over course and distance when 4th. I'm not sure that form is good enough although you could argue that Rising Renown is overpriced based on it. King's Charisma went onto win a course and distance maiden a couple of weeks ago although I'm not sure how strong the form is.

 

The favourite is Impulsar and he was well touted ahead of winning a maiden here in May in decent enough style. He then went into handicap company at Sandown and was a big disappointment finishing a well beaten 6th. Clearly you need to forgive that effort to want to back him here, but I think it is worth doing so as I suspect he is the best horse in the race and outside of him I think the race is quite trappy.

 

Impulsar 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

 

Race 4

The Lafferty Hurdle sees the return of Wil John who turned out to be a superb hurdler in 2021 when he won 3 including the previous race on this card. The final win came in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown when beating Inayforhay and Instigator who both reoppose here. After that he won a good race at Caulfield and took out the longest flat race in Australia, the Jericho Cup, over 4600m at Warrnambool. He sadly got injured which meant he had to miss last year. He has been working his way back to fitness with trials and runs on the flat since the end of February and I liked the way he trialled last week here. For me the only question if he will be fit enough because I think he's the best horse in the race. 

 

His main rival ought to be Circle The Sun who has looked really impressive this season by winning 3/3 over hurdles including the Australian Hurdle last time. A couple of weeks ago he went back to the flat here and was just beaten into 2^nd place so he continues to be in good form. Still that was a 0-58 and it is nowhere near the level Wil John has shown on the flat. Clearly though he is a much better hurdler and will have the fitness edge.

 

Instigator, Blandford Lad, Fabalot and Cleaver are all just behind in the betting, but I would be surprised if any of those were good enough. They are all solid horses who have been running well this season, but they all have a bit to find to beat either of the other two.

 

The other interesting runner for me though has to be Bell Ex One. I've done my money on him both hurdle starts this season as he ran a shocker 1^st up and then unseated at the7^th when still going well at Hamilton. He's had a flat run since where his jockey kicked for home plenty early enough and he got caught in the closing stages by San Remo who has won again since. As I keep saying after his 3^rd at Cheltenham last year I thought he had the potential to be the best hurdler in Australia and so he proved by beating Stern Idol in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat. Clearly he's not run up to that level over hurdles this season, but if he shows that form he's got a huge chance of winning this and I can't let him go unbacked at a double figure price.

 

The main bet though will be Wil John as I'm such a big fan and I think he will be fit enough to take this.

 

Wil John 1.5pts @ 13/5 with Bet365

Bell Ex One 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

 

Race 5

Duke Of Bedford is favourite for the BM120 Steeplechase, but I am happy enough to take him on. Don't get me wrong he was impressive when winning a maiden at Hamilton a month ago and he beat Gunaluva who did come out and win over this course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but that was a really poor contest and we have some battle hardened chasers so this will be a much stiffer test for the favourite. I'm surprised how short Gunaluva is as well.

 

Brungle Bertie is just 2^nd in the betting and he did pretty well last season winning over hurdles and on his final start of the season winning a BM120 on the final day at Ballarat. He did it well that day, but Laylite was in 2^nd and the form isn't overly strong although I would rate him above the other two mentioned above. He might need this though as he's only had two flat starts in May and June plus 2 trials so I suspect he will come on for the run.

 

Roland Garros is solid and the 2^nd last time at Hamilton was good in the context of this race even if he was beaten 7L, but I am going to side with my old favourite Under The Bridge. He under-performed in that Hamilton race last time, but he's better than that and the 2^nd to Tolemac over course and distance in May was a really good effort and he had Roland Garros in behind that afternoon. I think he does particularly well at Warrnambool so I am hopeful he can run up to his best here and if he does I think he can win this. Hopefully at the very least he is a solid e/w bet.

 

Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with everyone

 

Race 6

The feature steeplechase is the Thackeray and it looks a cracking renewal. Flying Agent was a great 2^nd in the Brierly here in May and I do think this track is where he is at his best. He went to Sandown for the Australian Chase after that and he was a disappointing 5^th behind Tolemac. He had a solid run on the flat last week at Werribee and he should be a big player here.

 

Rockstar Ronnie won a hell of a lot more money when he landed the Grand Annual than he did when winning at Warwick for Dan Skelton last May and he has been a superb purchase for connections. I suspect though this will be a prep run for him ahead of the Crisp and the Grand National next month which are both over longer than this. Clearly though if he did win it wouldn't be a huge surprise. 

 

It was a real shame we lost Casterton last week and Elvison runs here instead, but I can't have him away from his favourite track, especially in a field as strong as this. I do fancy the Wilde stable to win this though in the shape of Tolemac. He was punted heavily ahead of his chasing debut and duly bolted up over course and distance in May beating Under The Bridge by 8L. He then went to Sandown in the Australian Chase and bolted up there as well beaten Riding High by 12L. He was really impressive in both victories and clearly a return to Warrnambool on a Heavy 10 holds no fears for him. Over this trip I think he looks the best chaser in Australia this season so I think he can win this. I will have a small saver on Flying Agent though as he looks the main danger to me and a bit over priced.

 

Tolemac 1.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365

Flying Agent 0.5pts @ 10/3 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair

[MCLARKE]

Thanks Darran for Bell Ex One

[Darran]

About the only thing I got right, but at least at big odds and glad I kept the faith. I also got paid out the e/w part on Under The Bridge despite their being 7 runners. Some cracking racing though and sets things up nicely for the big races still to come.

[Darran]

Race 1

That's Incranibull sets the standard of those who have already raced over hurdles. He was 3^rd on debut at Sale and it was a solid performance which suggested he could pick up a maiden at some stage. I suspect Saint Eustace might show an improved performance on this better ground as he showed a bit of ability over course and distance when 5^th behind Circle The Sun in April. Things didn't go to plan next time at Hamilton and both those races were on a Heavy 10. Platinum Spirit certainly has the flat form to run well in this, but I wasn't overly impressed by his hurdles trial last time. 

 

The odds on favourite though is Cadre Du Noir who started out over here for Martyn Meade. Just under a year ago he won a Listed Race at Randwick and was then 2^nd in a G3 at Rosehill. Things haven't gone well on the since though and he has struggled to even beat a horse home. I do think he looks the type to find his form again over hurdles and is the type that the yard do so well with. He did jump his hurdles a bit big in the trials, but in his last but one I did notice when they went a bit quicker he was much slicker. I think he's the most likely winner, but the price is short enough so it is a no bet race for me.

 

Race 2

Botti is an interesting runner having run 4 times over hurdles last year in New Zealand, the last of which he came 2^nd in. We know he will stay this 3500m trip well as he was a very good 2^nd in the Jericho Cup over 4652m at Warrnambool in November. This prep he has struggled on the flat and they haven't really asked him for an effort in his hurdles trials either, but he does jump well. He ran on the flat on Wednesday at Sandown as a prep for this and he should be a leading player.

 

Contradeel hasn't shown too much over hurdles so far and has been priced up on his 2^nd to Gunaluva in the maiden chase at Warrnambool last month. That was a weak race though so he's not for me here.

 

I put up Newcastle bumper winner Mount Stewart last time on his 1^st hurdle start for nearly two years, but he drifted like a barge and ended up finishing lame after the race. He clearly needed the run and he showed over here and in his first hurdle run at Ballarat in 2021 that he has the talent to win races over hurdles. I'm expecting a big improvement here.

 

Nothin' Leica High and South Pacific pretty much finished upsides each other when a well beaten 3^rd and 4^th at Warrnambool 2 weeks ago. I think South Pacific will reverse the form as he has the flat class and I suspect this quicker surface will help him. Thinking Man was just in front of them in 2^nd and that was 2 2nd's on the bounce which were big improvements on what he had shown to date over hurdles. He has a place chance if he runs up to that form again.

 

Zoffala was 2^nd on his hurdles debut at Sale last month and it was a solid effort from the front. I am slightly surprised to see him stepping up in trip though as he tired late on and whilst I can understand why he is the market leader that does put me off a bit. He also ran poorly on the flat last time.

 

I like the chances of Botti here so he is the main bet. I have to back Mount Stewart again as if he is now in peak form he could well be the best of these.

 

Botti 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

Mount Stewart 0.5pts @ 12/1 with everyone

 

Race 3

A BM120 Hurdle with 6 runners and the biggest price at the time of writing is just 13/2. It's like a well graded greyhound race and any of them winning wouldn't surprise me. You have some on their best form would have a strong chance, but need to bounce back and then Abreed and The Rattlin' Bog who come here on the back of maiden wins. I just don't have a strong view at all and am quite happy to leave the race alone from a punting point of view.

 

Race 4

The feature hurdle on the card is the Brendan Drechsler and what a race we have on the cards. It is a set weights race so that does suit Saunter Boy who would be giving more weight away to his rivals if it was a handicap. He has been a cash machine on the whole for the last 2 seasons, but over hurdles so far this season he has only won once from 3 starts. That came in the Galleywood which is also a set weight race. He then went to Sandown for the Australian Hurdle where he ran his worst race for a long time over hurdles as he only finished 4^th behind Circle The Sun and San Remo, but he did have a lot of weight to carry. He has just had the one trial since which he won easily a couple of weeks ago. Obviously, he has a leading chance.

 

Bell Ex One did me a huge favour when winning the Lafferty a couple of weeks ago just getting the better of Circle The Sun. I thought it was a good performance and whilst possibly not as good as his win over Stern Idol last August, I do think the Cheltenham Festival 3rd will improve from that run and he looks the value play in the race to me.

 

Bedford won a winner of 1 Hurdle at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago, but as much as I was impressed with the performance, this race is a fair bit tougher. I'm surprised he's so short in the betting. On hurdles form San Remo has a fair bit to find although he did run well to finish a 6L 2^nd to Circle The Sun in the Australian Hurdle. He's been good on the flat since though winning twice over 3600m at Bendigo including beating Bell Ex One on the first occasion. I still find it hard to see him being good enough to win this though, but I'm not sure he should be a double figure price.

 

I have to be with Bell Ex One again here. I think he will improve again for the win at Warrnambool and if any horse is going to be good enough to beat Saunter Boy in a set weight contest, then it is him and he's a big price to do so. Saunter Boy is clearly a big danger thought.

 

Bell Ex One 1.5pts @ 9/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 5

I'm not sure there will have been too many horses that have run in the Arc and ended up over fences and certainly I'd imagine Nelson is a first to end up over fences in Australia. He hasn't run his race the last twice. At Sandown he pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia and then last time at Warrnambool he was disappointing on the face of it, but he was put under restraint given the strong early tempo and he didn't really see the race out. He might improve for the run as his jockey said he would. I certainly think he will be better to be allowed to stride out because I watched his steeple trial and he wasn't great when being held on to, but jumped better when allowed his head. He's certainly got the best flat form and class might win the day, but I don't think he offers much value.

 

Twin Spinner won well at Hamilton in May and was then just 5^th at Warrnambool. He was a fair way behind Nelson in the trial last time, but he seemed to jump well enough and wasn't asked for an effort. He has a chance, but I think he might need softer ground. Sky Hero was very novicey at the start of his steeple trial, but did look to get better as it went on. He was a long way behind Nelson over hurdles then back in April. Annoyingly Killourney's steeple trial isn't available to view from back in April and he did win a maiden hurdle at Casterton the following month. He was very poor next up though and has run OK in two starts on the flat since.

 

Quiet Escape made a very promising hurdle debut at Warrnambool in May, but hasn't really gone on from that. He wasn't asked for much in his steeple trial. If Tom Foolery gets in he has looked very good in his steeple trials, but that did not transfer to his run at Hamilton where he failed to finish. The 3^rd at Sale back over hurdles was nothing special either as he was well beaten. He beat Nelson 20L in his last trial, but he was certainly asked a lot more than the 2nd.

 

I put up So Belafonte as a place only bet at Sale and he duly ran well to finish 3rd. He had previously run well when 2^nd on the opening day and then hated the ground at Warrnambool in May. He should get his ideal ground here and has ticked over for this with a run on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He's a massive price again and I just don't understand why as I think he can show a bit of improvement from the Sale 3rd. He might not be good enough to win, but we know he is solid and handles fences so at massive odds he's worth a shot that he can at least be in the top 3 again.

 

So Belafonte 0.5pts e/w @ 30/1 with Bet365

 

Race 6

The feature chase on the card is the Mosstrooper and it should see the return to the winners enclosure of Stern Idol. He bolted up over course and distance in April and then just didn't stay in very testing ground in the Grand Annual when failing to finish. If he doesn't win this with ease I would be very surprised as he has a fair bit in hand and has looked good in 2 trials since. Valac is decent, but he had an issue when disappointing in the Australian Steeplechase last time so might need this. Bee Tee Junior might end up chasing him home again as he did here in April. It wouldn't surprise me if Stern Idol ends up going off even shorter than the 2/5 available at the moment.

[Darran]

Race 1

Not a strong looking maiden. Field Of Lights is odds on fav and on his hurdles debut in 2021 when he was a close 3rd I can see why, but he was well beaten on his first hurdles run since when 4th at Hamilton. Possibly the better ground might help, but he's won on a heavy track before. He did run well when 3rd on the flat a week ago so does come here in good heart. I'm going to have a small bet on Resolutions though she jumped well in her  hurdles trial last time. She ended up winning it although she was asked to quicken up after the last unlike the 2nd who had been well clear, but I still thought it was a nice effort and it would be no surprise if she was to improve on her flat form for a trainer who is good with this type of horse.

Resolutions 0.5pts @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

Race 2

Dashing Willoughby is back over hurdles having run in a good race at Flemington a week ago, but he was well beaten again. He does seem to be going backwards over hurdles as well having finished a good 2nd on debut at Hamilton, but he was then 3rd at Warrnambool and followed that up with a 31L 5th at the same venue. All 3 races were on a Heavy 10 so I don't think that was a factor, but he probably will enjoy the better ground here.

I'm going to side with Praise The Power though who has been more consistent over hurdles so far. He was a good 3rd over course and distance back in May and then was 4th not far behind Dashing Willoughby at Hamilton. He then had a break of 5 weeks before being beaten a length by The Rattlin' Bog at Warrnambool which was a good effort in the context of this race. He has the ability to win a maiden hurdle and it could well be this one. Once Were Lost isn't without a chance, but he's not run for a long time and might just need it, but his trials have been decent.

Praise The Power 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Race 3

That's Incranibull did well to beat Platinum Spirit last week in a maiden and that built on his 2nd on hurdles debut. He has a chance here. Frankenstar was 2nd on the same card in the BM120 Hurdle where the race ended up being every bit as close as it looked like on paper. They are the two dangers to the selection who is King's Charisma. He's been very consistent over hurdles and was 2nd to Frankenstar in a maiden at Hamilton back in May. He then won at Warrnambool before running a solid enough 3rd in the winner of 1 at Warrnambool which was won by Bedford, who of course won the big hurdle last week. This is easier and it looks a good chance for him.

King's Charisma 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred

Race 4

It was a hell of a performance from Mighty Oasis to win the Thackeray at Warrnambool last time where he just got the better of Rockstar Ronnie in a great battle down the straight. It was hard to know where that performance came from because he was stuffed in a maiden chase prior to that. If he can repeat his run last time he's a chance. Roland Garros was the BM120 on the same card when he led all the way, but I do think the front runners were favoured on the jumps course that day. He is a good horse though, but I'm not sure he should be heading the market.

He was set to run here against Elvision a month ago when the meeting was called off and I put Elvision up as a bet at 7/4, yet now he is a much bigger price and I have no idea why. He was never going to win the Thackeray because the hedge fences at Casterton is where he produces his best and he's now won 5 times round here. He's even better off at the weights than he would have been a month ago and whilst Roland Garros is probably the best horse he has come up against I strongly believe Elvision should be the market leader so I rate him a strong bet at the odds.

Elvision 3pts @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred