Darran

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field.    Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.   Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.   Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.   Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1st start of the prep.   Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.   Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.   Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.   Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2nd in the race Hydro Star was 3rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.   Donna Natalina - Good 2nd at Mildura 1st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.   Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.   Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.   Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m.    Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.   Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.   Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.   Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places) Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places) NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field.    Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.   Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.   Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.   Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1st start of the prep.   Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.   Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.   Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.   Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2nd in the race Hydro Star was 3rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.   Donna Natalina - Good 2nd at Mildura 1st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.   Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.   Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.   Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m.    Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.   Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.   Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.   Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places) Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places) NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field.    Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.   Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.   Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.   Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1st start of the prep.   Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.   Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.   Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.   Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2nd in the race Hydro Star was 3rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.   Donna Natalina - Good 2nd at Mildura 1st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.   Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.   Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.   Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m.    Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.   Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.   Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.   Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places) Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places) NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field.    Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.   Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.   Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.   Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1st start of the prep.   Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.   Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.   Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.   Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2nd in the race Hydro Star was 3rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.   Donna Natalina - Good 2nd at Mildura 1st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.   Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.   Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.   Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m.    Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.   Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.   Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.   Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places) Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places) NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

For the 2nd year running there are no European trained horses in the Caulfield Cup as Racing Victoria's rules continue to limit the amount travelling to Victoria for the Spring Carnival. There has been a lot of rain in Victoria this week causing a few race tracks to be flooded and whilst Caufield didn't miss it the track has taken the rain well. Chances are we will still be in the Heavy range, but they do think the ground will continue to improve so it might sneak into the Soft range by the time the Caulfield Cup gets underway at 5.10pm Australian time (7.10am here). I will take a look at horses who I think have winning chances.
The obvious place to start is the favourite Smokin' Romans. He comes here in flying form having won the G3 Naturalism here over 2000m and then landing the G1 Turnbull at Flemington two weeks ago. Those 2 wins came on a Heavy 8 and a Good 3 so he clearly handles any type of surface. I thought he was especially gutsy here as he had to fight for the win and then at Flemington it was a more comfortable success. The worry I have is that both races saw no horses come from off the pace and whilst that might end up being the same here it is enough to put me off at a short price. He does have a good draw though and has no weight so he has a clear chance of landing a hat-trick. Knights Order was the horse who set the steady tempo in the Turnbull and he ended up finishing 4th. He will likely attempt to front run again as he always does, but he has to get across from stall 18 which as Pat Cosgrave showed on Best Solution in 2018 isn't impossible to win from, but he's going to have to use up a fair bit of energy to get across and that isn't going to help his chances. Quite a few of these ran in the Turnbull and now Gold Trip might be the one who does the best. He showed good form whilst trained in France and has put in three solid races in Australia which includes a 3rd and 5th behind Smokin' Romans the last twice. Up in trip to 2400m will help him in my view.
Montefilia ran really well in this race last year to finish 4th and she is a top class horse on her day as she showed when beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet at Rosehill in March. She was 3rd at Randwick last time when connections blamed the ground. It was a slightly strange excuse as she has won on worse ground, but I think quite a few horses didn't enjoy what the ground was at Randwick that day and it should be more suitable here. She has place claims.
Nonconformist was 2nd in the race last year, but I thought he came into the race in much better form which is a worry about his chances in the race this year. There was a bit more promise in the Caulfield Stakes last time and this is his first time back in a handicap since last year's Caulfield Cup.
No Compromise has been building his form nicely as the prep has gone on for this and he landed the the G1 Metropolitan at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I thought that was a really good performance especially as he suffered a baulk at a key stage. His form at this trip is really good as well and I think he has place claims at least.
He was 6th on his previous start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and that means he was behind Alegron and Benaud who were 1st and 2nd that day. I think that is a key piece of form leading into this. Those two have prior history as well as Benaud was in front of him in the ATC Derby when they were 2nd and 3rd so chances are there won't be much between them here either. For me Benaud showed the strength of the form when he was 6th in the Caulfield Stakes last week when finishing only 2.45L behind Anamoe. The problem Beanaud has here though is that he is drawn in 20 and for that reason I prefer Alegron who should be able to sit nearer the pace from 14. 
The other one worth mentioning for me is Vow And Declare the Melbourne Cup winner from 2019. He has found it tough on the whole since then, but he has come back this prep looking in really good form. He was 3rd in a handicap at Flemington over 2500m last month and then a couple of weeks ago finished a fast finishing 5th after not getting a clear run up the straight. The slight concern is if he will have enough pace over 2400m, but he is a big price and I can see him staying on strongly again to possibly hit the frame.
Verdict - With a couple of bookies offering 5 places I think we are getting some cracking e/w value with only 3 horses in single figures. Knights Order isn't going to find things easy to get to the lead from his draw and as much as Smokin' Romans has an obvious chance I just wonder if the way the races were run suited him the last twice and if things pan out differently here then he could be vulnerable. He is clearly potentially well handicapped though so it might not matter. Beanaud also has a poor draw so I am happy to pass him over as well. 
I'm going to take 3 e/w against the field. No Compromise for me looks a good chance to follow up his Metropolitan win last time and looks a big price at 18/1. Alegron could well uphold the form with Benaud especially as he has a better draw and I'm a bit surprised he is a bigger price than him. Vow And Declare was tempting as he's a big price and he could well run a nice prep for the Melbourne Cup, but Montefilia is the other one I will be backing. I am happy to pass over the run last time on bad ground at Randwick and she ran well in this last year so could do so again as I don't think the race is any stronger.
No Compromise e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred 5 places
Alegron e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places
Montefilia e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places

A huge morning in Australia tomorrow with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest at Randwick. My Caulfield Cup preview will follow later but here is my preview for the Everest as Nature Strip bids to win it for the 2nd year running.   Nature Strip - He certainly doesn't need any introduction to racing fans in the UK after his demolition job in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot in June. It was a stunning performance and it certainly came as no surprise to me given what he had been doing in Australia over the last few years, which includes winning this race last year. His trainer resisted the temptation of backing him up in the Platinum Jubilee so he would be in peak shape for his defence of this. He had a nice trial at the beginning of last month and then beat 5 of these when taking the G2 The Shorts over 1100m here a month ago. Given his 1st up record you would have forgiven him if had been beat, but the fact he won so impressively is very noteworthy for me. We know he handles a heavy track and it is hard to see which of his rivals is going to be able to improve past him. The only concern is he has drawn the outside, but it might turn out that you need to be off the rail anyway and he is clearly the best horse in the race.   Eduardo - A good horse who has beaten Nature Strip in the past including in The Shorts last year. He then went onto be 3rd in this before winning a large pot in the Classique at Rosehill. His problem is when he gets to a grand final with Nature Strip, Nature Strip always wins. He was 2nd to him again in the T J Smith back in April for example. This prep he won the G3 Concorde over 1000m, but was then a bit disappointing when leading in The Shorts and only finished 4th. He's so consistent that it isn't hard to see him finishing in the top 4, but I just don't see how he can beat a top peak Nature Strip.   Lost And Running - Was 4th in this last year at huge odds and went onto finish 2nd in the Classique to Eduardo before winning a big pot at Newcastle. I think he is coming into the race in better form this year compared to last year as 1st up he was 3rd in The Shorts where he had to race wide the whole way with no cover. A couple of weeks ago he won the G2 Premiere over course and distance just getting up to beat Mazu and Masked Crusader. It's hard to see him being good enough to beat Nature Strip, but he could easily improve on his 4th from last year given there has been plenty to like in his two runs so far this prep.   Masked Crusader - Blew his chance in this last year when fluffing the start and he was flying late to only be beaten 0.2L by Nature Strip. He had won the Premiere on his previous start, but that remains his last win. He never really got going in 3 starts in the Autumn and was a bit disappointing. This prep he finished 6th in The Shorts before finishing 0.42L behind Lost And Running in the Premiere. He came from a long way back that day and did well to finish as close as he did. As much as he was possibly a little unlucky last year I still don't see him being able to beat Nature Strip, but he should be ready to peak 3rd up and can go well.   Mazu - Won 6 on the bounce between October and May when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Eagle Farm. Was 5th in The Shorts and 2nd in the Premiere in his 2 runs this prep. Clearly improving and his stable knows what it takes to win this race, but he did get the best run last time and I find it hard to see him being good enough to land this.   Private Eye - Brings some different form lines into the contest and his peak effort so far was when he took the G1 Epsom over 1600m here last October. He is 4/5 at this distance though and was impressive when winning the G2 Gilgai at Flemington a couple of weeks ago on his first run of the prep. This is harder though and I would be surprised if he was a good enough sprinter to beat the likes of Nature Strip.   Overpass - Decent sprinter although he has struggled on the whole when against top class horses. He did manage to chase Nature Strip home in The Shorts, but then could only finish 6th in the Premiere last time. Chances are the ground was too heavy for him that day and he hasn't even hit the frame in 4 starts on a heavy track so chances are he will struggle again here in the testing ground.   Ingratiating - Godolphin hadn't filled their spot in the race until earlier in the week and they have decided to take this horse who finished 2nd over 1100m in a G2 at Caulfield last week. He's a useful enough horse but his big odds are a reflection of the sort of task he faces here.   Joyful Fortune - Has clocked some fast times in Hong Kong and bolted up on his Australian debut at Flemington a month ago. The problem is that was just a BM70 contest and as much as a winning margin of 4.25L is impressive in any sprint contest, it would be a massive shock if he went from that to beating the worlds best sprinter.   Shades Of Rose - Hard to knock any horse who has won 7 of their 9 starts. She finished 2nd in one and her saddle slipped in the other. She is clearly progressive and made the leap from handicap company to win a G2 at Rosehill last month where she made all and just held on. Impossible to know where her ceiling is and she could well be capable of out running her odds, but hard to see her being capable of winning at this stage of her career.   Jacquinot - Was 3rd and 6th in the big 2yo races at Caulfield and Rosehill in the Autumn and looks to have improved on that as a 3yo this prep. He won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up in August and then landed the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Was 10th passing the 400m marker so the visuals back up the times as he finished very fast to get up. He is drawn in 2 which might not help him given his running style although he is clearly progressive and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against the seasoned sprinters.   Giga Kick - Has only had 4 starts, but has won all 4 starting off with a maiden win at Sale in February. He then won a handicap at Flemington before landing a G3 at Caulfield the following month. 2 weeks ago, he stepped up to G2 company by taking the Danehill at Flemington over 1100m and clearly it is impossible to know how good he might be. Obviously this is by far the hardest race he has been in and he is an interesting contender.   Verdict - Whilst this isn't a G1 it clearly is in all but name and a few of these are stepping up into this sort of company for the 1st time, but I think they will be hoping Nature Strip under performs or struggles from his draw to beat him. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world, he looked superb at Royal Ascot and again in The Shorts he looked very comfortable. I'm not sure it matters where he is drawn and it could even be an advantage to not be on the rail anyway given likely ground conditions. It could be argued he is in career best form and at the very least he is still at the peak of his powers and I think he looks a cracking bet even at a shade of odds on. There has been plenty to like in Lost And Running's two runs this prep and he looks to be going better than he was when 4th in this last year so I will take him to follow Nature Strip home. Masked Crusader should be able to go well again and given how impressive Jacquinot was in the Golden Rose last time I will take him to finish 4th.   Nature Strip @ 10/11 with William Hill Lost And Running Masked Crusader Jacquinot

For the 2nd year running there are no European trained horses in the Caulfield Cup as Racing Victoria's rules continue to limit the amount travelling to Victoria for the Spring Carnival. There has been a lot of rain in Victoria this week causing a few race tracks to be flooded and whilst Caufield didn't miss it the track has taken the rain well. Chances are we will still be in the Heavy range, but they do think the ground will continue to improve so it might sneak into the Soft range by the time the Caulfield Cup gets underway at 5.10pm Australian time (7.10am here). I will take a look at horses who I think have winning chances.
The obvious place to start is the favourite Smokin' Romans. He comes here in flying form having won the G3 Naturalism here over 2000m and then landing the G1 Turnbull at Flemington two weeks ago. Those 2 wins came on a Heavy 8 and a Good 3 so he clearly handles any type of surface. I thought he was especially gutsy here as he had to fight for the win and then at Flemington it was a more comfortable success. The worry I have is that both races saw no horses come from off the pace and whilst that might end up being the same here it is enough to put me off at a short price. He does have a good draw though and has no weight so he has a clear chance of landing a hat-trick. Knights Order was the horse who set the steady tempo in the Turnbull and he ended up finishing 4th. He will likely attempt to front run again as he always does, but he has to get across from stall 18 which as Pat Cosgrave showed on Best Solution in 2018 isn't impossible to win from, but he's going to have to use up a fair bit of energy to get across and that isn't going to help his chances. Quite a few of these ran in the Turnbull and now Gold Trip might be the one who does the best. He showed good form whilst trained in France and has put in three solid races in Australia which includes a 3rd and 5th behind Smokin' Romans the last twice. Up in trip to 2400m will help him in my view.
Montefilia ran really well in this race last year to finish 4th and she is a top class horse on her day as she showed when beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet at Rosehill in March. She was 3rd at Randwick last time when connections blamed the ground. It was a slightly strange excuse as she has won on worse ground, but I think quite a few horses didn't enjoy what the ground was at Randwick that day and it should be more suitable here. She has place claims.
Nonconformist was 2nd in the race last year, but I thought he came into the race in much better form which is a worry about his chances in the race this year. There was a bit more promise in the Caulfield Stakes last time and this is his first time back in a handicap since last year's Caulfield Cup.
No Compromise has been building his form nicely as the prep has gone on for this and he landed the the G1 Metropolitan at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I thought that was a really good performance especially as he suffered a baulk at a key stage. His form at this trip is really good as well and I think he has place claims at least.
He was 6th on his previous start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and that means he was behind Alegron and Benaud who were 1st and 2nd that day. I think that is a key piece of form leading into this. Those two have prior history as well as Benaud was in front of him in the ATC Derby when they were 2nd and 3rd so chances are there won't be much between them here either. For me Benaud showed the strength of the form when he was 6th in the Caulfield Stakes last week when finishing only 2.45L behind Anamoe. The problem Beanaud has here though is that he is drawn in 20 and for that reason I prefer Alegron who should be able to sit nearer the pace from 14. 
The other one worth mentioning for me is Vow And Declare the Melbourne Cup winner from 2019. He has found it tough on the whole since then, but he has come back this prep looking in really good form. He was 3rd in a handicap at Flemington over 2500m last month and then a couple of weeks ago finished a fast finishing 5th after not getting a clear run up the straight. The slight concern is if he will have enough pace over 2400m, but he is a big price and I can see him staying on strongly again to possibly hit the frame.
Verdict - With a couple of bookies offering 5 places I think we are getting some cracking e/w value with only 3 horses in single figures. Knights Order isn't going to find things easy to get to the lead from his draw and as much as Smokin' Romans has an obvious chance I just wonder if the way the races were run suited him the last twice and if things pan out differently here then he could be vulnerable. He is clearly potentially well handicapped though so it might not matter. Beanaud also has a poor draw so I am happy to pass him over as well. 
I'm going to take 3 e/w against the field. No Compromise for me looks a good chance to follow up his Metropolitan win last time and looks a big price at 18/1. Alegron could well uphold the form with Benaud especially as he has a better draw and I'm a bit surprised he is a bigger price than him. Vow And Declare was tempting as he's a big price and he could well run a nice prep for the Melbourne Cup, but Montefilia is the other one I will be backing. I am happy to pass over the run last time on bad ground at Randwick and she ran well in this last year so could do so again as I don't think the race is any stronger.
No Compromise e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred 5 places
Alegron e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places
Montefilia e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places

A huge morning in Australia tomorrow with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest at Randwick. My Caulfield Cup preview will follow later but here is my preview for the Everest as Nature Strip bids to win it for the 2nd year running.   Nature Strip - He certainly doesn't need any introduction to racing fans in the UK after his demolition job in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot in June. It was a stunning performance and it certainly came as no surprise to me given what he had been doing in Australia over the last few years, which includes winning this race last year. His trainer resisted the temptation of backing him up in the Platinum Jubilee so he would be in peak shape for his defence of this. He had a nice trial at the beginning of last month and then beat 5 of these when taking the G2 The Shorts over 1100m here a month ago. Given his 1st up record you would have forgiven him if had been beat, but the fact he won so impressively is very noteworthy for me. We know he handles a heavy track and it is hard to see which of his rivals is going to be able to improve past him. The only concern is he has drawn the outside, but it might turn out that you need to be off the rail anyway and he is clearly the best horse in the race.   Eduardo - A good horse who has beaten Nature Strip in the past including in The Shorts last year. He then went onto be 3rd in this before winning a large pot in the Classique at Rosehill. His problem is when he gets to a grand final with Nature Strip, Nature Strip always wins. He was 2nd to him again in the T J Smith back in April for example. This prep he won the G3 Concorde over 1000m, but was then a bit disappointing when leading in The Shorts and only finished 4th. He's so consistent that it isn't hard to see him finishing in the top 4, but I just don't see how he can beat a top peak Nature Strip.   Lost And Running - Was 4th in this last year at huge odds and went onto finish 2nd in the Classique to Eduardo before winning a big pot at Newcastle. I think he is coming into the race in better form this year compared to last year as 1st up he was 3rd in The Shorts where he had to race wide the whole way with no cover. A couple of weeks ago he won the G2 Premiere over course and distance just getting up to beat Mazu and Masked Crusader. It's hard to see him being good enough to beat Nature Strip, but he could easily improve on his 4th from last year given there has been plenty to like in his two runs so far this prep.   Masked Crusader - Blew his chance in this last year when fluffing the start and he was flying late to only be beaten 0.2L by Nature Strip. He had won the Premiere on his previous start, but that remains his last win. He never really got going in 3 starts in the Autumn and was a bit disappointing. This prep he finished 6th in The Shorts before finishing 0.42L behind Lost And Running in the Premiere. He came from a long way back that day and did well to finish as close as he did. As much as he was possibly a little unlucky last year I still don't see him being able to beat Nature Strip, but he should be ready to peak 3rd up and can go well.   Mazu - Won 6 on the bounce between October and May when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Eagle Farm. Was 5th in The Shorts and 2nd in the Premiere in his 2 runs this prep. Clearly improving and his stable knows what it takes to win this race, but he did get the best run last time and I find it hard to see him being good enough to land this.   Private Eye - Brings some different form lines into the contest and his peak effort so far was when he took the G1 Epsom over 1600m here last October. He is 4/5 at this distance though and was impressive when winning the G2 Gilgai at Flemington a couple of weeks ago on his first run of the prep. This is harder though and I would be surprised if he was a good enough sprinter to beat the likes of Nature Strip.   Overpass - Decent sprinter although he has struggled on the whole when against top class horses. He did manage to chase Nature Strip home in The Shorts, but then could only finish 6th in the Premiere last time. Chances are the ground was too heavy for him that day and he hasn't even hit the frame in 4 starts on a heavy track so chances are he will struggle again here in the testing ground.   Ingratiating - Godolphin hadn't filled their spot in the race until earlier in the week and they have decided to take this horse who finished 2nd over 1100m in a G2 at Caulfield last week. He's a useful enough horse but his big odds are a reflection of the sort of task he faces here.   Joyful Fortune - Has clocked some fast times in Hong Kong and bolted up on his Australian debut at Flemington a month ago. The problem is that was just a BM70 contest and as much as a winning margin of 4.25L is impressive in any sprint contest, it would be a massive shock if he went from that to beating the worlds best sprinter.   Shades Of Rose - Hard to knock any horse who has won 7 of their 9 starts. She finished 2nd in one and her saddle slipped in the other. She is clearly progressive and made the leap from handicap company to win a G2 at Rosehill last month where she made all and just held on. Impossible to know where her ceiling is and she could well be capable of out running her odds, but hard to see her being capable of winning at this stage of her career.   Jacquinot - Was 3rd and 6th in the big 2yo races at Caulfield and Rosehill in the Autumn and looks to have improved on that as a 3yo this prep. He won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up in August and then landed the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Was 10th passing the 400m marker so the visuals back up the times as he finished very fast to get up. He is drawn in 2 which might not help him given his running style although he is clearly progressive and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against the seasoned sprinters.   Giga Kick - Has only had 4 starts, but has won all 4 starting off with a maiden win at Sale in February. He then won a handicap at Flemington before landing a G3 at Caulfield the following month. 2 weeks ago, he stepped up to G2 company by taking the Danehill at Flemington over 1100m and clearly it is impossible to know how good he might be. Obviously this is by far the hardest race he has been in and he is an interesting contender.   Verdict - Whilst this isn't a G1 it clearly is in all but name and a few of these are stepping up into this sort of company for the 1st time, but I think they will be hoping Nature Strip under performs or struggles from his draw to beat him. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world, he looked superb at Royal Ascot and again in The Shorts he looked very comfortable. I'm not sure it matters where he is drawn and it could even be an advantage to not be on the rail anyway given likely ground conditions. It could be argued he is in career best form and at the very least he is still at the peak of his powers and I think he looks a cracking bet even at a shade of odds on. There has been plenty to like in Lost And Running's two runs this prep and he looks to be going better than he was when 4th in this last year so I will take him to follow Nature Strip home. Masked Crusader should be able to go well again and given how impressive Jacquinot was in the Golden Rose last time I will take him to finish 4th.   Nature Strip @ 10/11 with William Hill Lost And Running Masked Crusader Jacquinot

For the 2nd year running there are no European trained horses in the Caulfield Cup as Racing Victoria's rules continue to limit the amount travelling to Victoria for the Spring Carnival. There has been a lot of rain in Victoria this week causing a few race tracks to be flooded and whilst Caufield didn't miss it the track has taken the rain well. Chances are we will still be in the Heavy range, but they do think the ground will continue to improve so it might sneak into the Soft range by the time the Caulfield Cup gets underway at 5.10pm Australian time (7.10am here). I will take a look at horses who I think have winning chances.
The obvious place to start is the favourite Smokin' Romans. He comes here in flying form having won the G3 Naturalism here over 2000m and then landing the G1 Turnbull at Flemington two weeks ago. Those 2 wins came on a Heavy 8 and a Good 3 so he clearly handles any type of surface. I thought he was especially gutsy here as he had to fight for the win and then at Flemington it was a more comfortable success. The worry I have is that both races saw no horses come from off the pace and whilst that might end up being the same here it is enough to put me off at a short price. He does have a good draw though and has no weight so he has a clear chance of landing a hat-trick. Knights Order was the horse who set the steady tempo in the Turnbull and he ended up finishing 4th. He will likely attempt to front run again as he always does, but he has to get across from stall 18 which as Pat Cosgrave showed on Best Solution in 2018 isn't impossible to win from, but he's going to have to use up a fair bit of energy to get across and that isn't going to help his chances. Quite a few of these ran in the Turnbull and now Gold Trip might be the one who does the best. He showed good form whilst trained in France and has put in three solid races in Australia which includes a 3rd and 5th behind Smokin' Romans the last twice. Up in trip to 2400m will help him in my view.
Montefilia ran really well in this race last year to finish 4th and she is a top class horse on her day as she showed when beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet at Rosehill in March. She was 3rd at Randwick last time when connections blamed the ground. It was a slightly strange excuse as she has won on worse ground, but I think quite a few horses didn't enjoy what the ground was at Randwick that day and it should be more suitable here. She has place claims.
Nonconformist was 2nd in the race last year, but I thought he came into the race in much better form which is a worry about his chances in the race this year. There was a bit more promise in the Caulfield Stakes last time and this is his first time back in a handicap since last year's Caulfield Cup.
No Compromise has been building his form nicely as the prep has gone on for this and he landed the the G1 Metropolitan at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I thought that was a really good performance especially as he suffered a baulk at a key stage. His form at this trip is really good as well and I think he has place claims at least.
He was 6th on his previous start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and that means he was behind Alegron and Benaud who were 1st and 2nd that day. I think that is a key piece of form leading into this. Those two have prior history as well as Benaud was in front of him in the ATC Derby when they were 2nd and 3rd so chances are there won't be much between them here either. For me Benaud showed the strength of the form when he was 6th in the Caulfield Stakes last week when finishing only 2.45L behind Anamoe. The problem Beanaud has here though is that he is drawn in 20 and for that reason I prefer Alegron who should be able to sit nearer the pace from 14. 
The other one worth mentioning for me is Vow And Declare the Melbourne Cup winner from 2019. He has found it tough on the whole since then, but he has come back this prep looking in really good form. He was 3rd in a handicap at Flemington over 2500m last month and then a couple of weeks ago finished a fast finishing 5th after not getting a clear run up the straight. The slight concern is if he will have enough pace over 2400m, but he is a big price and I can see him staying on strongly again to possibly hit the frame.
Verdict - With a couple of bookies offering 5 places I think we are getting some cracking e/w value with only 3 horses in single figures. Knights Order isn't going to find things easy to get to the lead from his draw and as much as Smokin' Romans has an obvious chance I just wonder if the way the races were run suited him the last twice and if things pan out differently here then he could be vulnerable. He is clearly potentially well handicapped though so it might not matter. Beanaud also has a poor draw so I am happy to pass him over as well. 
I'm going to take 3 e/w against the field. No Compromise for me looks a good chance to follow up his Metropolitan win last time and looks a big price at 18/1. Alegron could well uphold the form with Benaud especially as he has a better draw and I'm a bit surprised he is a bigger price than him. Vow And Declare was tempting as he's a big price and he could well run a nice prep for the Melbourne Cup, but Montefilia is the other one I will be backing. I am happy to pass over the run last time on bad ground at Randwick and she ran well in this last year so could do so again as I don't think the race is any stronger.
No Compromise e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred 5 places
Alegron e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places
Montefilia e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred and William Hill 5 places

A huge morning in Australia tomorrow with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest at Randwick. My Caulfield Cup preview will follow later but here is my preview for the Everest as Nature Strip bids to win it for the 2nd year running.   Nature Strip - He certainly doesn't need any introduction to racing fans in the UK after his demolition job in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot in June. It was a stunning performance and it certainly came as no surprise to me given what he had been doing in Australia over the last few years, which includes winning this race last year. His trainer resisted the temptation of backing him up in the Platinum Jubilee so he would be in peak shape for his defence of this. He had a nice trial at the beginning of last month and then beat 5 of these when taking the G2 The Shorts over 1100m here a month ago. Given his 1st up record you would have forgiven him if had been beat, but the fact he won so impressively is very noteworthy for me. We know he handles a heavy track and it is hard to see which of his rivals is going to be able to improve past him. The only concern is he has drawn the outside, but it might turn out that you need to be off the rail anyway and he is clearly the best horse in the race.   Eduardo - A good horse who has beaten Nature Strip in the past including in The Shorts last year. He then went onto be 3rd in this before winning a large pot in the Classique at Rosehill. His problem is when he gets to a grand final with Nature Strip, Nature Strip always wins. He was 2nd to him again in the T J Smith back in April for example. This prep he won the G3 Concorde over 1000m, but was then a bit disappointing when leading in The Shorts and only finished 4th. He's so consistent that it isn't hard to see him finishing in the top 4, but I just don't see how he can beat a top peak Nature Strip.   Lost And Running - Was 4th in this last year at huge odds and went onto finish 2nd in the Classique to Eduardo before winning a big pot at Newcastle. I think he is coming into the race in better form this year compared to last year as 1st up he was 3rd in The Shorts where he had to race wide the whole way with no cover. A couple of weeks ago he won the G2 Premiere over course and distance just getting up to beat Mazu and Masked Crusader. It's hard to see him being good enough to beat Nature Strip, but he could easily improve on his 4th from last year given there has been plenty to like in his two runs so far this prep.   Masked Crusader - Blew his chance in this last year when fluffing the start and he was flying late to only be beaten 0.2L by Nature Strip. He had won the Premiere on his previous start, but that remains his last win. He never really got going in 3 starts in the Autumn and was a bit disappointing. This prep he finished 6th in The Shorts before finishing 0.42L behind Lost And Running in the Premiere. He came from a long way back that day and did well to finish as close as he did. As much as he was possibly a little unlucky last year I still don't see him being able to beat Nature Strip, but he should be ready to peak 3rd up and can go well.   Mazu - Won 6 on the bounce between October and May when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Eagle Farm. Was 5th in The Shorts and 2nd in the Premiere in his 2 runs this prep. Clearly improving and his stable knows what it takes to win this race, but he did get the best run last time and I find it hard to see him being good enough to land this.   Private Eye - Brings some different form lines into the contest and his peak effort so far was when he took the G1 Epsom over 1600m here last October. He is 4/5 at this distance though and was impressive when winning the G2 Gilgai at Flemington a couple of weeks ago on his first run of the prep. This is harder though and I would be surprised if he was a good enough sprinter to beat the likes of Nature Strip.   Overpass - Decent sprinter although he has struggled on the whole when against top class horses. He did manage to chase Nature Strip home in The Shorts, but then could only finish 6th in the Premiere last time. Chances are the ground was too heavy for him that day and he hasn't even hit the frame in 4 starts on a heavy track so chances are he will struggle again here in the testing ground.   Ingratiating - Godolphin hadn't filled their spot in the race until earlier in the week and they have decided to take this horse who finished 2nd over 1100m in a G2 at Caulfield last week. He's a useful enough horse but his big odds are a reflection of the sort of task he faces here.   Joyful Fortune - Has clocked some fast times in Hong Kong and bolted up on his Australian debut at Flemington a month ago. The problem is that was just a BM70 contest and as much as a winning margin of 4.25L is impressive in any sprint contest, it would be a massive shock if he went from that to beating the worlds best sprinter.   Shades Of Rose - Hard to knock any horse who has won 7 of their 9 starts. She finished 2nd in one and her saddle slipped in the other. She is clearly progressive and made the leap from handicap company to win a G2 at Rosehill last month where she made all and just held on. Impossible to know where her ceiling is and she could well be capable of out running her odds, but hard to see her being capable of winning at this stage of her career.   Jacquinot - Was 3rd and 6th in the big 2yo races at Caulfield and Rosehill in the Autumn and looks to have improved on that as a 3yo this prep. He won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up in August and then landed the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Was 10th passing the 400m marker so the visuals back up the times as he finished very fast to get up. He is drawn in 2 which might not help him given his running style although he is clearly progressive and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against the seasoned sprinters.   Giga Kick - Has only had 4 starts, but has won all 4 starting off with a maiden win at Sale in February. He then won a handicap at Flemington before landing a G3 at Caulfield the following month. 2 weeks ago, he stepped up to G2 company by taking the Danehill at Flemington over 1100m and clearly it is impossible to know how good he might be. Obviously this is by far the hardest race he has been in and he is an interesting contender.   Verdict - Whilst this isn't a G1 it clearly is in all but name and a few of these are stepping up into this sort of company for the 1st time, but I think they will be hoping Nature Strip under performs or struggles from his draw to beat him. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world, he looked superb at Royal Ascot and again in The Shorts he looked very comfortable. I'm not sure it matters where he is drawn and it could even be an advantage to not be on the rail anyway given likely ground conditions. It could be argued he is in career best form and at the very least he is still at the peak of his powers and I think he looks a cracking bet even at a shade of odds on. There has been plenty to like in Lost And Running's two runs this prep and he looks to be going better than he was when 4th in this last year so I will take him to follow Nature Strip home. Masked Crusader should be able to go well again and given how impressive Jacquinot was in the Golden Rose last time I will take him to finish 4th.   Nature Strip @ 10/11 with William Hill Lost And Running Masked Crusader Jacquinot

A huge morning in Australia tomorrow with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest at Randwick. My Caulfield Cup preview will follow later but here is my preview for the Everest as Nature Strip bids to win it for the 2nd year running.   Nature Strip - He certainly doesn't need any introduction to racing fans in the UK after his demolition job in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot in June. It was a stunning performance and it certainly came as no surprise to me given what he had been doing in Australia over the last few years, which includes winning this race last year. His trainer resisted the temptation of backing him up in the Platinum Jubilee so he would be in peak shape for his defence of this. He had a nice trial at the beginning of last month and then beat 5 of these when taking the G2 The Shorts over 1100m here a month ago. Given his 1st up record you would have forgiven him if had been beat, but the fact he won so impressively is very noteworthy for me. We know he handles a heavy track and it is hard to see which of his rivals is going to be able to improve past him. The only concern is he has drawn the outside, but it might turn out that you need to be off the rail anyway and he is clearly the best horse in the race.   Eduardo - A good horse who has beaten Nature Strip in the past including in The Shorts last year. He then went onto be 3rd in this before winning a large pot in the Classique at Rosehill. His problem is when he gets to a grand final with Nature Strip, Nature Strip always wins. He was 2nd to him again in the T J Smith back in April for example. This prep he won the G3 Concorde over 1000m, but was then a bit disappointing when leading in The Shorts and only finished 4th. He's so consistent that it isn't hard to see him finishing in the top 4, but I just don't see how he can beat a top peak Nature Strip.   Lost And Running - Was 4th in this last year at huge odds and went onto finish 2nd in the Classique to Eduardo before winning a big pot at Newcastle. I think he is coming into the race in better form this year compared to last year as 1st up he was 3rd in The Shorts where he had to race wide the whole way with no cover. A couple of weeks ago he won the G2 Premiere over course and distance just getting up to beat Mazu and Masked Crusader. It's hard to see him being good enough to beat Nature Strip, but he could easily improve on his 4th from last year given there has been plenty to like in his two runs so far this prep.   Masked Crusader - Blew his chance in this last year when fluffing the start and he was flying late to only be beaten 0.2L by Nature Strip. He had won the Premiere on his previous start, but that remains his last win. He never really got going in 3 starts in the Autumn and was a bit disappointing. This prep he finished 6th in The Shorts before finishing 0.42L behind Lost And Running in the Premiere. He came from a long way back that day and did well to finish as close as he did. As much as he was possibly a little unlucky last year I still don't see him being able to beat Nature Strip, but he should be ready to peak 3rd up and can go well.   Mazu - Won 6 on the bounce between October and May when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Eagle Farm. Was 5th in The Shorts and 2nd in the Premiere in his 2 runs this prep. Clearly improving and his stable knows what it takes to win this race, but he did get the best run last time and I find it hard to see him being good enough to land this.   Private Eye - Brings some different form lines into the contest and his peak effort so far was when he took the G1 Epsom over 1600m here last October. He is 4/5 at this distance though and was impressive when winning the G2 Gilgai at Flemington a couple of weeks ago on his first run of the prep. This is harder though and I would be surprised if he was a good enough sprinter to beat the likes of Nature Strip.   Overpass - Decent sprinter although he has struggled on the whole when against top class horses. He did manage to chase Nature Strip home in The Shorts, but then could only finish 6th in the Premiere last time. Chances are the ground was too heavy for him that day and he hasn't even hit the frame in 4 starts on a heavy track so chances are he will struggle again here in the testing ground.   Ingratiating - Godolphin hadn't filled their spot in the race until earlier in the week and they have decided to take this horse who finished 2nd over 1100m in a G2 at Caulfield last week. He's a useful enough horse but his big odds are a reflection of the sort of task he faces here.   Joyful Fortune - Has clocked some fast times in Hong Kong and bolted up on his Australian debut at Flemington a month ago. The problem is that was just a BM70 contest and as much as a winning margin of 4.25L is impressive in any sprint contest, it would be a massive shock if he went from that to beating the worlds best sprinter.   Shades Of Rose - Hard to knock any horse who has won 7 of their 9 starts. She finished 2nd in one and her saddle slipped in the other. She is clearly progressive and made the leap from handicap company to win a G2 at Rosehill last month where she made all and just held on. Impossible to know where her ceiling is and she could well be capable of out running her odds, but hard to see her being capable of winning at this stage of her career.   Jacquinot - Was 3rd and 6th in the big 2yo races at Caulfield and Rosehill in the Autumn and looks to have improved on that as a 3yo this prep. He won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up in August and then landed the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Was 10th passing the 400m marker so the visuals back up the times as he finished very fast to get up. He is drawn in 2 which might not help him given his running style although he is clearly progressive and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against the seasoned sprinters.   Giga Kick - Has only had 4 starts, but has won all 4 starting off with a maiden win at Sale in February. He then won a handicap at Flemington before landing a G3 at Caulfield the following month. 2 weeks ago, he stepped up to G2 company by taking the Danehill at Flemington over 1100m and clearly it is impossible to know how good he might be. Obviously this is by far the hardest race he has been in and he is an interesting contender.   Verdict - Whilst this isn't a G1 it clearly is in all but name and a few of these are stepping up into this sort of company for the 1st time, but I think they will be hoping Nature Strip under performs or struggles from his draw to beat him. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world, he looked superb at Royal Ascot and again in The Shorts he looked very comfortable. I'm not sure it matters where he is drawn and it could even be an advantage to not be on the rail anyway given likely ground conditions. It could be argued he is in career best form and at the very least he is still at the peak of his powers and I think he looks a cracking bet even at a shade of odds on. There has been plenty to like in Lost And Running's two runs this prep and he looks to be going better than he was when 4th in this last year so I will take him to follow Nature Strip home. Masked Crusader should be able to go well again and given how impressive Jacquinot was in the Golden Rose last time I will take him to finish 4th.   Nature Strip @ 10/11 with William Hill Lost And Running Masked Crusader Jacquinot