ljmilos

I would be a fool or stupid if I didn't try this treble: Meddy to beat Tsitsi 2.95, over 2.5 sets Kenin/Sakkari 2.43, Struff to beat Schwartzman 2.60 at 18.64 with Unibet

Trungelliti to beat Baez at 5.20 with Unibet
I will try this one at low stakes. Baez is a very talented young player and his results this year are incredible (3 Challengers), but he's only 20 years old and Trungelliti has a lot of experience at these stages. He has won the qualification for the FO 3 times before while Baez has never played here. His results this year are not good but he has achieved some good wins. He beat Alcaraz in a Challenger played in Gran Canarias at similar odds and he also beat Coppejans. Baez is the favorite, for sure, but at these odds I will give Trungelliti a shot.

Thanasi Kokkinakis to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.83 with Bet365
Taking this with Bet365 in case Kokkinakis is carrying an injury, but I have no idea what these odds are about if that's not the case. Kolar is on a good run, though, but Kokkinakis is miles above him in terms of ceiling and skills. 

Feliciano Lopez to beat Taro Daniel at 2.50 with Bet365
Going for this at the very least for tomorrow. Lopez should be better now that he's on clay in Spain and Daniel hasn't impressed me so far in this season - and I did catch quite a few of his matches. I'd make Daniel only a very slight favourite in this one, so 2.50 looks like decent value to me.

Elias Ymer to beat Javier Barranco Cosano at 1.72 with Sbobet
A bit risky given that Ymer has played very little since the AO, but he's leagues above his opponent when he's playing at his standard level. I'm not aware of any injuries and he should beat Barranco Cosano even if he plays to his 80 or something percent.

I think Sanders is way too fresh to be paraded at 9/2 against Pegula who should really be cooling off now after the amount of tennis already played. The WTA is so vast with talents now that most of the middle - top tier players focus on what part of the year to play well. So it is now not about who is better  (maybe to an extent yes) or who is the higher seed, It is more about who is most likely to play well at the current tournament looking back at their season. While Sanders may or may not win, the handicap is way off here @ +5.5 handicap 11/10? I  will certainly have some of that. Other players to watch who are in the groove are Stojanovic/Kalinskaya who should be very competitive.  They should both be listed as win/to win a set materials. Good luck all!

Matthias Bachinger (+4.5) to beat Benjamin Bonzi at 1.72 with Bet365
Bonzi is the better player and there's no doubt that he's the favorite to beat Bachinger, who's been a bit shaky over the last couple of months. He seems to have found some form here, though, and he's been solid ever since he lost against Jaziri in the qualifying to Biella 3. Now, we're in Biella 5 and he's on a run, definitely capable of covering this line given his good serve and the fast conditions. It's worth noting that Bonzi hasn't covered this handicap in his three wins here, against Rodionov, Kamke and Bourgue. 

I'm starting off this week with two WTA matches. In Monterrey, I like the look of Sherif against Davis. The Egyptian has some momentum having come through the qualification rounds and although Davis is a player I like as she always gives best effort, I make her only a marginal favourite to win this. In Russia, I'm having a small stake on Rodionova to beat Zvonareva. Like Sherif, Rodionova has a couple of wins in qualifying which I always think is a bonus and also it's not as though Zvonareva is in particularly good form. She's not the player she used to be and the price on Rodionova is too high.
35pts Sherif to beat Davis @ 2.30 Bet365
5pts Rodionova to beat Zvonareva @ 9.00 Betfair Sportsbook

Something does not feel right about backing Medvedev regardless of his easy victory over Gerasimov. And since Simov himself had played so much tennis prior, he really could not be used as a yardstick. I do not care about what Sinner played against Gaston or Barrere. I am inclined to rely on his pedigree as a man who is going to eventually reside among the top 5 sooner or later. There will be nothing strange if he does a Djokovic on us and finds real form to push into the later stages. Odds movement is positive.

Gerasimov to beat Hanfmann at 1.40 with bet365
I also like this match. The odds are not high but Gerasimov is really good playing on indoors. In Montpellier he beat Murray, Bedene, Davidovich and lost in the SFs against Goffin in a 3 set match. In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round but it was against Tsitsipas and it was tight (7-6, 7-5). The last year here he reached the SFs, beating Ruusuvuori, Novak and Goffin and lost against Aliassime. As I said, I really like him when he plays indoors and here is where he has his best results. Hanfmann best surface is clay. 

I add this one. 
Olmos (+6.00 Gamest) to beat Podoroska at 1.67 with Pinnacle
I think the line is just to big. Olmos has already played 2 matches here and she beat Sherif in straight sets (Sherif was priced at 1.20). Podoroska did not end well her australian season. She lost easily against Vekic in the 2nd round of the AO (6-2, 6-2) and in the 1st round of the Phililp Island Trophy against Begu (6-3, 6-3). Olmos is better known for doubles but I have seen her and she's not a bad player on singles despite her ranking. Podoroska last match was against Begu and it was 1 month ago. Considering Olmos has already played 2 matches here (including a win in 2 sets against Sherif) I think she can cover this handicap. This match starts in 1 hour.

Francis Tiafoe vs Nicholas Jarry
well, we all know that Tiafoe is not a natural claycourter compared to Jarry who loves to play on the surface. Tiafoe has already had two matches on clay in Buenos Aires where I would say he played okay against Munar who he lost to. Jarry on the other hand has had 4 competitive matches on clay beating Munar in Cordoba in the process. I really believe that Jarry has had just enough matches to set him up well for his home tournament in Santiago. One thing most tournament organizers always do, is to try to schedule their matches in such a way that their best home representative is put in a prime slot to hopefully provide value for money which they do most times. I took Jarry early yesterday to win a set at a very huge stake. I really believe he has what it takes to go further and win here. Verdict: Jarry to beat Tiafoe

Bolsova vs Juvan +19.5 Games at 1.74 with Pinnacle
I'm not sure if Juvan deserves that big favoritism. Bolsova took a set against Bouzkova after beating easily Raina in 2 sets in the Yarra Valley. After that, she lost easily against Brady in the 1st round of the AO. 4 of 5 Juvan's last matches have been 3 set matches (vs. Yafan Wang, Swiatek, Sherif and Gauff). I do not count her match against Konta cause Konta retired after winning the 1st set. The only match from the last 5 that she has won in 2 sets has been against Cabrera (6-4, 6-3). In the AO, both players lost against Brady with exactly the same result (6-1, 6-3). I expect Bolsova to fight this match more than the odds suggest.
Fiona Ferro (+5.5 Games) to beat Mertens at 1.91 with William Hill
I will go with a safer option. Ferro's last year was really good and she has been productive in her last tournaments (wins over Siniakova and Rybakina in the AO and SFs in Lyon) . The surface favors Mertens but, as has been said, this is her first match after her unexpected loss against Muchova in the AO so I think she can have a slow start.

We've got way too many tournaments on the cards this week.
Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.61 with Pinnacle
Still a difference in quality and I remember RBA liking the courts in the Middle East most of the time. He looked really good two weeks ago and has had enough time off to be ready for this. Unless Opelka fires big time on serve, he'll be in trouble all around. Slight value on RBA I feel.

There's three matches I like today - all WTA. In Dubai, I'm backing Cirstea to beat Tsurenko - both players aren't in great form but Cirstea has the recent scalp of Kvitova so that swings it for me at odds against. Also in Dubai I can't have Ferro as such a big underdog against Mertens. She strung a few wins together last week and Mertens hasn't been seen since the Australian Open. I like Mertens as she's quite consistent and so she should be winning this, but for a small stake I'll take a chance on Ferro. Lastly in Guadalajara, I think Volynets has a chance against McNally. Mostly this is about going against McNally, with the American in no form at all right now. That's also the case for Volynets, but with one player out of the two heavy odds against I know where I'd rather put my money.
30pts Cirstea to beat Tsurenko @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
10pts Ferro to beat Mertens @ 5.50 Bet365
20pts Volynets to beat McNally @ 3.00 Bet365

Tight matches in Rotterdam today but I think some good bets can be placed on them
Tsitsipas-khachanov- Over 19,5 games(can go even over 20/21 but I'll play it safe). Khachanov is in the best form he's been in a long while and tsitsi will always fight hard. Should be quite close and I'm too scared to bet on tsitsipas winning it even though he's got good odds.
Rublev should beat chardy(1,12)- I won't bet on him since his odds are too low IMO in comparation to how dangerous chardy can be for rublev.
Nishikori-coric- I think I'll avoid this one , but I'd go with coric to win it or atleast to take a set. Borna should return kei's serve far easier than viceversa and he is in better physical shape than nishi.
Fucsovis- Paul- I'll go with fucsovis taking atleast one set. He routined paul in australia last year (alas it was a horrible performance from paul after he had a great win over dimitrov much like his win over bublik yesterday).

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

What appealed to me most from your comment above was (1,42 I think) and (He seemed tired) which really does not sound like the Murray that I know. In fact Murray and Djokovic are two players that are experts at communicating reverse body languages in very strange ways. One minute they may look dead, and next minute they are in the 5th set waxing strong. Murray is also one of the craftiest players on court when it comes down to shot shot selection - against Rublev who up to this point in his career has been hindered by good court wisdom. The other player I must mention is Auger Aliassime, who has hitherto been held back by court craft deficiency. They both lead the brainless ball-bashing department. (sorry).

Do notget me wrong here, Rublev might end up beating Murray 2-0 as you say, but this certainly is the type of match that every punter should want to get on from the multifarious money making angles available. This really in my opinion is similar to the Gerasimov/Tsitsipas match yesterday. Gerasimov was originally priced from suspected tiredness and had ended up negating his price by recovering quickly in the 2 days prior. Murray will remember their only head to head in 2017 and know that he can still beat this guy. I will go the safe route and take Murray @ +5.5 games handicap 1/2. That really seems mouth-watering enough for me. Good luck.  

Lukas Klein to beat Andrej Martin at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I liked Klein in the qualifying and I actually had no idea that he holds a 3-0 record against Martin in the H2H department. That's why I like him at this price here. He's aggressive and he's used to the courts by now after beating 3 solid opponents in Collarini, Seyboth Wild and Escobedo.

Arantxa Rus (-2.5 Games) to beat Xiyu Wang at 1.80 with bet365
At first, I have to say that these odds are influenced by 2 things. The first one is that Rus lost against her recently in Abu Dhabi (6-3, 3-6, 6-4) and the second one is that Rus is still winless in 2021 (X.Wang, Venus and Swiatek). Despite that, I think Rus should win this match. Her game suits really well on hard indoor courts (82-45) while Wang has never won a match on this surface as a professional. Rus beat her easily in December 2020 in Dubai (6-1, 6-3). Rus is better player and IMO the match that reflects the real difference between them is the match they played in Dubai, not the last one. I think proper odds should be 1.40, not 1.60. 

There's plenty of action this week. For ATP, we have Buenos Aires and Rotterdam. For WTA, we have Lyon and Doha. There are three Challenger events as well, though two are more or less re-runs from last week. I'll go ahead with a pick and I hope others will join me soon!
Ramkumar Ramanathan to beat Hugo Grenier at 2.06 with Pinnacle
I think the wrong guy is favoured here, honestly. I have to admit that I didn't see Grenier lately, but I did see Ramanathan twice this season, against Bagnis in the AO qualifiers and against Daniel last week in Singapore. I liked him both times - well, not exactly liked for the ATP level, but for a very decent Challenger standard. When his serve is working, he can trouble even way better players than Grenier. Not a lock by any stretch, but I think Ramanathan should be around 1.75 here.

Koepfer vs Tirante
I do not think the rankings of both players is of any importance in this match up as there are a lot of other angles that we can view this from. First koepfer can be very dangerous on clay as can be seen from his record towards the end of 2020. he has only played one match on clay this year and I believe he can be taken on partially or perhaps fully. Tirante is the young home prospect who mainly plies his trade on clay although it has to be said that he is also a very good hard court player, winning over 80% of his matches last year. He is still only 19 in the developmental stage of his career and I really think he is on the right path. He has already played six matches this year with a 3/3 record. However I think his recent loss to Facundo Bagnis can be used as a yardstick to measure what can be expected from him today. Also I feel as a youngster in the same age bracket, he would have noted what Cerundolo did yesterday and aim to draw inspiration from it. While i very much believe that he is a good bet to win the match, I will opt for Tirante to win a set at 4/9 since the object of this exercise is to ensure that your capital stays in tact. Good luck!!!

I can't see why Cecchinato is favourite to beat Djere in Buenos Aires, bearing in mind that he lost the last time they played each other which is fairly recent. It could be because Djere hasn't won a match so far this year, but then he hasn't played on clay yet which is his favourite surface. Cecchinato is hardly in great form either, with just one win over Dellien last week to show for his efforts this season. Although playing last week might give Cecchinato some sort of advantage, Djere tends to do well during this clay swing so I'll be backing him at odds against. 
One favourite I do like though is Fucsovics against Opelka in Rotterdam. He has a better all-round game than Opelka who is all about serve, and his two wins in qualifying are a plus. He should be able to hold serve easily enough as Opelka is so limited on return, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get some looks on the Opelka serve as he's a better player than many give him credit for. So far this year Opelka has only managed to beat veterans Stakhovsky and Lu and hasn't really got going yet, and although indoor conditions could be just what he needs to start turning a corner I think the only way he wins this is via tie-breaks and so I'd rather back Fucsovics.
15pts Djere to beat Cecchinato @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook
40pts Fucsovics to beat Opelka @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook

Seconding the Fucsovics tip! Getting on that myself - Fucsovics to beat Opelka at 1.73 with William Hill.

Daniil Medvedev to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.00 with Bet365
After thinking about the match again, I don't see much of a reason why Medvedev is the underdog here. Sure, Djokovic has experience on his side. Then again, all the other factors speak against him and I'm not sure that Medvedev is in the same position as Brady was earlier today. He has enough experience against top opposition, he has a 3-4 record against Djokovic, which includes him winning 3 of the last 4 encounters and he has been playing the better tennis so far. There's the injury angle as well. It's probably a bit overrated by now, so I wouldn't read into it that much, but it's there. We should see a cracker of a match and it's arguably the best final we could've gotten, so let's hope for the best. I'd have Medvedev as the slight favorite, not Djokovic.