immortal--

I'll have a pint of whatever you're drinking!  

They have a small chance of beating AM overall, but I just can't see it. Monaco look a huge price to beat Dortmund away, they should never be 5.25!

The draw for the 2016/17 Champions League Quarter Finals took place earlier today. It has left us with a dazzling set of fixtures. The previous round of action saw almost 150 posts from you guys in one of the most hotly discussed topics this forum has seen. So I am very interested to see what you all think here.
@vasilli07, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @LePapo, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @andrewcalo, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, and @WinningAdvice, you all contributed to the last round of action. What are you fancying for these first legs?
Personally, I'm going early and saying Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, and Juventus will get home wins. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to end in a score draw.

Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow.
 
The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc..
 
It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion.  
 
It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else.  
 
Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games.  Hard to think will score against Manchester United.

Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov.  Will force the victory,  maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have.  
 
Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon.  I will wait a little bit.
 
More than that, I will try   -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30  
 
Of course - just my thoughts.  Everybody has to make his own assessment.   
 
 
 
 
 

I would give him a red card in for this.. but on the other hand, referee pretty far away, bad positioned, with view behind the backs.. he didn't see it in same way like we did. When you are watching this situation from more angles, you can see Marquinhos not even watching the ball, just following Suarez and going into him and Suarez was in the mood for diving for whole match, and he succeeded there.
Uefalona is back right?  I seriously don't care, I am just happy to see the comeback. @DrBetter I agree with you that tactical approach was bad. I started saying that as the match started, as it's fuc** hard to defend for 90 minutes in front of 100k stadium supporting other team. After goal of Cavani from nothing I ate my words, and said "ok, he proved me wrong" but after this miracle in last 7 minutes.. My opinion is the same again. Why play so defensively, if you have one of the strongest attacks in the world? And against 3 defenders of Barcelona (which were by the way for 51% of the match on half of PSG!) It's true, they had two 100% chances, but it should be much more of that... I don't know, maybe it wasn't problem with tactics? Maybe they were just to afraid, with shi* in their pants not able to move.. well, they obviously looked like that. But honestly, preparation on Messi was good again. Pretty similar like on match in Paris, but Neymar did it much much better this time than in Paris.. while Suarez? It's better that I am quiet.
And as one of my friends is saying (he is referee): If you are arriving to box 100-times per match, it's logical that there are bigger chances, that referee will make mistake.. 

Rostov will play a tight defensive game tomorrow. I am unsure of Uniteds motivation for this game, but regardless of that they have had enormous difficulties against teams like this during the whole season (or more). United have trouble scoring even when they have all the possesion and create lots of chances. And I dont see them getting that many here, it will probably be a lot of crosses on Zlatan and Fellaini (if he plays) and some long shots from Pogba untill someone strikes luck.

Pitch is in terrible condition, I would not place any money on United even if they maybe get the 1-0.
I think under 2,5 goals for around 1.7 is a great bet, or under 1,5 for above 3.0 with a lower stake.

I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor.

First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona.

The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.


 
Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).

 On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now.

Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….


 
So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…


 
Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds.

As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester)

Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.  

  


 

 

 

An array of fascinating ties for the last 16 of the Europa League coming up in a couple of weeks. APOEL versus Anderlecht is a close one to call. APOEL saw off Welsh side TNS in the qualification stages of the Champions League during the summer months but I wasn't overly impressed by them so I'm amazed they have reached this stage. I expect Anderlecht to win this over two legs.
Celta Vigo should make reasonably light work of Krasnodar but they need a result in this first leg. If they don't get a one or two goal lead then it could be a banana skin waiting to happen in Russia.
FC Copenhagen should be disposed of by Ajax. They could well win this first leg but I wouldn't be surprised if Ajax took a draw back to Amsterdam and finished the tie at home.
The all-Belgian tie is intriguing. Gent are the slayers of Tottenham so they have shown what they can do. Genk have experience of European competition but I think it has to be Gent over the two legs if they can get a win here.
Lyon and Roma is the stand-out tie of the round. Lyon have been a bit inconsistent in Ligue 1 but Roma look impressive this season. They remain the closest rivals to Serie A leaders Juventus and have also won 8 of their last 10 league games. I think Roma will edge it over two legs and could well win this first leg too.
Olympiakos versus Besiktas should be quite an atmosphere! Two sets of fans that love giving it the big one. I expect both teams to win their home legs. Who will prevail? This could go to extra time or even penalties. I think Besiktas edge it for me though.
Rostov are a very pleasing tie for Manchester United. I fully expect the Red Devils to make relatively light work of this tie. United could well win both legs and keep a clean sheet in both.
Finally, the all-German tie between Schalke and Borussia Monchengladbach could be all but decided here. The home side could well win by 2 or 3 if the away side aren't on their game but Borussia have been picking up a few impressive away wins in the league lately. 3.25 is not a terrible price for them.
What do you all think at this early stage?

Ok, fair enough, come on for the trash talk... I'm disgusted... I don't know what to say... I even cannot talk about "what if".. cavani and di maria's chances, suspect penalties (meunier's though is a penalty)... And the forgotten red card for Piqué, the constant diving of braca's players... And what about those ugly goals... bad referee ultimately...
But overall... PSG lost much more than a game... it's an humiliation... i'feel raped guys... I have ni idea what in the world could console me... i'll never get over it.. I don't understand why we played in defense, why we abandoned our pressing... if only cavani had score his 1vs1... 
Sorry if some of you followed me on my blind bets, at least BTTS was ok, mea culpa...But, this match is out of this world... At 3-1, 15 min left, and then 2 penalties... insane...

Long time no speak..been a while.
PSG to score looks a must tonight – although the odds are garbage now so prob in-play. Barca aren’t playing a Spanish minnow tonight, PSG are much better when playing sides that attack them – see their struggles against sides that put 11 behind the ball – Di Maria/Moura/Draxler are all rapid and they will create chances on the counter. I couldn’t confidently predict an outcome in the game but talk of Barca going through sounds fanciful to me, they haven’t convinced me this season and beating sides like Celta Vigo 5-0 doesn’t mean anything. PSG are a better team overall and I can see them scoring here as Barca will have to push forward in numbers at some point. Mascherano playing again is a blow for the bet as he is the brains in that backline.
Dortmund look like a banana skin in general, someone with a decent gameplan will knock them out. I admire Benfica as they seem to retain the same level while losing all their best players, Jonas is past his best but Mitro has stepped up to the plate this year. I don’t really think Benfica should go through but wouldn’t be confident enough about Dortmund to back them on a handicap.
Personally my big bet to win at the start of the comp was At Madrid at 15 and backed R.Madrid at 6.5 later on. Tempted by Juve at 9 now too.
 

Made a decent profit of a BTTS/Win double yesterday.
For today, you guys seem to have done the mental gymnastics so I will chime in with my selections:
Barca - PSG
Verratti anytime card @ 2.25
Busquets anytme card @ 2.25
Barca win & BTTS @ 2.4
Dortmund - Benfica
O2.5 @ 1.44
Dortmund & BTTS @ 2.7
 
BTTS/win double  @ 6.48

Wow @Notorious how can you say that France isn't one of the best when it comes to youth potential right now?  '93 till '98 are one of the best if not the best generations in history of France. It's true that we can not know into what kind of players they will grow.. but
Varane, Kimpembe, Mendy, Laporte, Zouma, Alm. Toure, Blas, Pogba, Bakayoko, M. Dembele, O. Dembele, Tousart, Nkunku, Diop, Harit, Mbappe, Lemar, Tolisso, Thauvin, Fekir, Rabiot, Cornet, Coman, Martial, Augustin,... maybe I missed some of them, but I think that list is wide enough already. Unfortunately Verratti is not French, even though I thought on start (when he arrived to PSG) that he is.  
Don't get me wrong, I agree that there is lot of potentials in Portugal as well (I would add Bernardo Silva, Jota, Horta to your players), but right now I think that not Spain (Asensio, Saul, Torres, Munir, Deulofeu, Inaki Williams, Suarez, Mayoral, Gaya, Vallejo, Manquillo,...) not Portugal cannot compete with young talents with France. Besides U19 won final of Euro with 4-0 against Italy, while they've beaten Portugal 3-1 in semis. 
 
p.s. Praise to all of you, kicking bookies today.

Yes, the red card turn the match to Bayern side... but a win is a win!

I guess we have to disagree then. With such a big lead, teams will be playing not to lose or lose big rather than trying their 101% to win.
Bayern has never done the double against Arsenal too. Pep Guardiola failed twice and even the great Jupp Heyckes whose Bayern thrashed Barca 7-0 on aggregate failed in 12/13 too.

Because when u have just %30 ball possession u need to defend very well, but Arsenal can't defend... Arsenal is out of form, on other hand Bayern is in superb form. Yes, they won the first match and have big advantage, but they are germans... Ozil is out too.
How many times these year you can double your money if you take Bayern win?

I said many times here i was a PSG fan and not entirely objective... And i've never asked anyone to trust me blindly, and always stated facts... I know we're trying to make money, that's why i'm saying PSG isn't as bad as you think, and if you had listen to me last time, you would have make money on at least a double chance for PSG, or an over1.5 for paris...  i've said before PSG-Barca that people shouldn't underestimate Paris, that they had previous record of great games. Actually, i'm trying to help people to avoid losing money by blindly betting on Barca like some did last time, and i give them facts to decide.. What are you doing beside calling me for BS when i say PSG became a serious contender...? Have you made money backing a Barca win last time?
Facts, history and previous games analysis is bullshit for you? really mate? I didn't say PSG would surely win Wednesday, i said they won't be crushed, and will score, probably more than once, since Barca is forced to play full attack with a leaky defense... How is that fiction/novels? You're as biased as me then my friend, not seeing that, i'm just saying there's some value on betting a PSG win or an PSG over 1.5 (short stake of course), as Bayern did 2 years ago after their 4-0 win.. You're backing Barca win and BTTS, but IMO, yes for BTTS, but a Barca win is risky, maybe i'm wrong, we'll see..
"Real Madrid, Bayern, and Athletico would all rock you guys. Juventus as well" > Don't think so... It's just my opinion + some facts...  You don't rock a team who crushed 4-0 Barca, that's it...
"As far as Real Madrid is concerned I hope we draw psg, you'll learn real quick what's an easy draw or not."  I hope so too... Not sure who will learn from who though..  Last times someone wish to meet PSG, they lost each time (Hi José !) ...  I still think Real is totally overrated this year (and a bit last year) and they didn't deserved to win at least one of their two last CL.. Atletico deserved to win one.. at least... And let me tell you I love Real Madrid, but Real today (last 2 months) is not really enjoying to watch, saw them against Valencia, Napoli and Celta lately, las palmas also, they're not safe to bet on either.. You obviously can't argue with that mate.. But don't worry, you'll avoid big teams in quarter like every time..     But Real-PSG would be a nice quarter though!

I watched the first match. Benfica was completely outplayed. They only had one shot on target,from which they've scored. A pretty much lucky goal,if you ask me.
On the other hand - Borussia was excellent, completely dominated the game. Benfiika's goalkeeper has done some wonder saves and Dortmund even missed a penalty.
I have no dilemma here. I think that Borussia will win for sure.

Sorry for my bad English. 

You're just doing basic french bashing... how original.. don't worry, i'm used to it from Brits!  
But this argument.. Tell me smart ass, how is your football national team performing lately in international competitions? ... Choking at some point? 

What is everyone's feel on Arsenal-Bayern? I've watched both clubs for the past 3 weeks now. I think it's safe to say Arsenal is in really bad shape right now, where Bayern is high on life. The Germans are playing really well. Even though Bayern is 99.99% sure of next round, I really feel like theyre going to outplay Arsenal on every front. I just cannot see Arsenal putting up any fight, even a half decent Liverpool overran them.
Im taking Bayern win @2.3 10/10
And a cheeky bet of Bayern -1 @3.3 5/10

I personally like unders in St Etienne v Man Utd. 
St Etienne are usually good for unders, and the fact this is 0-3, surely both teams will look to take it easy?! That would be my hope anyway.

Here some information about the Belgian teams:
Genk: under their new coach, Stuivenberg, who was the assistent from Van Gaal in Manchester, they are doing quite well. Although they lost Bailey (to Leverkussen) they still have some attacking power even without Karelis who is injured. Under their previous coach, Maes, they played good in Europe, but the results in Belgium were bad. One week they played excellent, the other week bad. I don't know much about Astra, but the Belgian league is class above the Romanian that's for sure. I see them qualify with quite an ease, although they have some important matches ahead of them to qualify for PO 1.
RSC Anderlecht: first of all, I am an Anderlecht supporter. They have very good results the last 2 months, although their play isn't fantastic. Personally, I think the Belgian press is too hard for them and their coach. I like their team more than I did last year. This match is quite difficult to predict as Zenit is without competition for a couple of months now. I read in Belgian newspapers that they played 11 friendly games and that they are already in Brussels for quite a while. I think it will be a hard battle for qualification as Zenit lost Witsel and Hulk don't play for them anymore. Maybe I go for a little bet on Anderlecht, but other opinions are welcome.
Gent: if they are in form, for me it's the best playing team in Belgium. But they are struggling a lot and are 8th in the Belgian Championship. They strengtened their squad a lot during winter transfer window and have with Kalinic the best keeper in Belgium.  Tottenham is for sure the favorite in this one, but Gent can make it very hard for them as Tottenham maybe isn't focussed on Europe League. Last year, Anderlecht won at home against Tottenham and lost with small margin in England. With wich team will Tottenham play? Also English teams are overrated when playing in Europe in my opininion (sorry guys).
Would love to hear some more info about their opponents  Best of luck!
 

ehh? Ter Stegen was the best player on the pitch, it's said everywhere, everybody agrees in the press, some brillant saves, i've watch the match, he did 3 incredible saves... and can't do anything on the 4 goals...  
PSG are not so good? Come on, they're in quarter every year, and with more luck and less Barca these past years, they could have reached semis or final no doubt, they're 5 or 6 in the UEFA ranking over last 5 seasons... PSG is one of the best team in the world easily.. You're blind my friend... ;-) When you crush 4-0 the best team in Europe, it's not one lucky match, it means that you're solid, consistent, brillant, with talented players... But if it was a nightmare for you i understand your frustration and blindness ;-)

Im sorry @DrBetter but im not sure what makes you think PSG are the best side in Europe. They aren't even the best side in France this season.
You also said 'when you crush the best team in Europe' well as far as I know Real Madrid are the best team in Europe (holders of the Champions League and to add to that, they're ahead of this Barcelona side in La Liga.
 

Without Ter Stegen, it would be 7-0. I wrote a longer post few weeks ago. With Rossel, Bartomeu, Enrique, this Barcelona is becoming Real Madrid. La Masia is drawning, our youth potentials are leaving, and it's interesting that they are able to play key roles in clubs as Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Villarreal, Valencia... but they are not good enough for Barcelona. On the other hand, we are taking players as Mathieu (20M), Gomes (40M), next one is Cancello (30M), who is by the way backup for Montoya in Valencia, but Montoya is from La Masia and he is not good enough to be in Barcelona. That's why highly intellectual Enrique decided that Sergi Roberto (one of the best midfielders produced by La Masia in last 10 years will become right full back, that we will be able to buy 40M Gomes, who is overrated as shit. Thiago left for 18M, Gomes came for 40M. Thiago is by far the best player of Bayern, while Gomes is by far the biggest disappointment of Barcelona this season.
 
Neymar was trying to do something, true. But take a look of some things: 
- right side of Barcelona is crazily open to opponent.. and than everyone are blaming Sergi Roberto (Barca player with most tackles by the way).. I want to see one full back able to cover all of that. If Rakitić is not playing, no one is covering space behind Leo, and than Roberto is left alone and exactly that happened yesterday and is happening for whole the season. 

- Gomes tried, but he failed. He lost so many balls, he had only 1 tackle in whole game, he didn't create anything, he was lost in galaxy.
 
- Emery simply raped Enrique. He had five players, able to cover Leo and at least three of them were all the time able to press him every single time when he received the ball. Team played with high pressure and they're three midfielders had almost as many tackles as whole team of Barcelona. They also outran them with aprox. 8km more.

- Emery focused totally on Leo, while he actually left Neymar little bit more of space, covered only by Meunier and Verratti/later Nkunku, while Marquinhos was helping with closing down the space on both sides actually. Another player who was trying to make it harder for Ney was Di Maria, who was helping in defence a lot yesterday. Another problem was Jordi Alba who was far from being dangerous in this match.

- Both teams were mainly focused on attack over left flank, but Emery stopped main player of Barcelona, from who almost all dangerous balls are coming (Leo) and because of that Suarez was totally cut out of the match. On the other hand Barcelona didn't stop anyone from PSG. They were too late in duels, they were to slow in attack, Neymar even if he was trying, was holding the ball to long, and that's why only two players were needed to stop him and when he saw that it's not his day, everything was easier for Meunier.

In my opinion, high pressing won the game. And Enrique's thinking about Barca being a counter-attack team is a total shame. Leo is reason that he is still here. Without Messi and with his tactical knowledge, this would be mid-table team.

Winner this week,
This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.

What would you back if you had a gun to your head? I think I would go for a narrow Napoli win but I would be half tempted on backing Fiorentina to get a draw. The Champions League and Europa League are fast approaching and both sides have interests in those competitions. Will that affect their approach to the game?
@Tanktop, sometimes, I find backing a team playing poorly but still getting the results can turn over decent profit. At the end of the day, it's a results game. Winning is a habit and if they can do it playing badly then they are as worthwhile backing as a team flying.