harry_rag

Gone 6/1 for >0.5 1st half goals, btts to score in the 2nd half and Simms (easily the hottest player) to score.
Bit of an interest for all of the above digging and uses the freebie before it expires. Scorer prices looking a bit skinny at the moment but see what the line-ups bring.

Done a quick "heat map" for tonight's game (basically seeing who's scored each team's last 25 goals to get a feel for who's hot and not).
Coventry scored 28 goals in their last 13 games, scored in 11 of them with BTTS landing in 9. For Ipswich it's 27 in 12, scoring in 10 and BTTS in 7.
Looking at the bets mentioned in the previous posts, BTTS in the 2nd half landed 9 times in those 25 games so 13/8 would've made a small loss but might be ok tonight given both teams' ability to score (there are some 1 sided matches in the sample). 2nd half was the highest scoring 8 times but >1.5 landed 15 times so I think I prefer that option despite the shorter odds. Got a Betbuilder freebie that needs using so might bear all that in mind!
In terms of who's hot it's very much Simms (13 goals including 2 braces and 2 hat tricks) and Wright (7, 1 brace, 3 pens) for Coventry with Tavares the only other player to score 3 goals.
Less dominance for Ipswich; Hutchinson 6 goals including 2 braces, then just Chaplin, Moore and Hamadi managing 3 apiece.
Players in bold expected to start according to the RP preview. Now to see if that suggests any actual bets!

We've (I use the word cheekily perhaps) split this race into 3 clear divisions.
It would be hoped we find the winner from our top 4 given it includes the odds on fav, or a couple of decent priced placed selections at least.
We have a clear bottom 6 so it would be nice if they all fell short of the places.
That leaves the midfield 4 of Henry L, Rosallion, Task Force and 10 Bob Tony where opinion is fairly divided. Rosallion too short to like given it's so-so showing, 
Let's hope most of them go to post and see how it all unfurls.

Good, saves me having to rate him !

Going to take a break before I disappear up my own rabbit hole but here's a couple of tables that may be of interest (or not).
# Horse Odds BF MaxAv 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 113.0 2 Henry Longfellow 26 26 110.8 3 Task Force 21 23 110.3 4 Haatem 34 38 109.0 5 Ghostwriter 17 20 107.6 6 River Tiber 41 130 107.6 7 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 106.3 8 Rosallion 5 8.2 104.9 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 101.0 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 100.7 11 Diego Velazquez 51 100 100.7 12 Notable Speech 11 14.5 98.3 13 Inisherin 34 55 97.9 14 Iberian 26 48 97.5 Sorted by best individual rating (shows you all agree the bottom 6 are bang average or worse).
# Horse Odds BF MinAv 1 Ghostwriter 17 20 105.6 2 Haatem 34 38 103.9 3 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 103.1 4 River Tiber 41 130 100.7 5 Rosallion 5 8.2 97.9 6 Alyanaabi 21 29 96.7 7 Night Raider 17 17.5 94.6 8 Task Force 21 23 94.3 9 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 92.1 10 Notable Speech 11 14.5 92.1 11 Henry Longfellow 26 26 91.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 86.3 13 Iberian 26 48 83.3 14 Diego Velazquez 51 100 75.9 Sorted by worst individual rating (shows you all agree the top 4 are at least slightly better than average).

We've (I use the word cheekily perhaps) split this race into 3 clear divisions.
It would be hoped we find the winner from our top 4 given it includes the odds on fav, or a couple of decent priced placed selections at least.
We have a clear bottom 6 so it would be nice if they all fell short of the places.
That leaves the midfield 4 of Henry L, Rosallion, Task Force and 10 Bob Tony where opinion is fairly divided. Rosallion too short to like given it's so-so showing, 
Let's hope most of them go to post and see how it all unfurls.

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Yes I e managed to get the epic boost 66/1 ...cmon you beauty 🤩 

I think for me .....ghostwriter has always been up there ....I can see him placing and being a better horse in the derby later on .....and haatem is also looking overpriced at 33/1..,.so I'm very happy to have 5pt Ew on both ....just a shame only 3 places 

I can only watch one horse in a race so I'll go with HAATEM who looks the best value. I would probably have £10 EW but would wait until the day of the race as there will probably be 4 places available somewhere and BOG would be available.

I'll go first with my less informed view. Might as well try and extract some sense from my frantic spreadsheeting! 
There's a clear top four with the fav rightly the fav but too short for now. River Tiber is 4th but drifting quite a bit on the exchange suggesting it has maybe lost a leg or is about to be withdrawn. Haatem and Ghostwriter the other two. If I had to burn that £20 now:
£4 e/w Haatem 66/1 (using my weekly "Epic Odds" boost)
£5 e/w Ghostwriter 16/1 
£2 win River Tiber at 220
 

£6.50 win Ghost Writer       16/1
£2.50 ew   Haatem               28/1
£2.00 ew   Ten Bob Tony    50/1
6 x 50p      Forecasts
6 x 25p      Tricasts

A first cut for one option of combining your collective wisdom. This sets each of your top rated as 100 and adjusts everything else based on it's rating as a % of the top rated. (e.g. Zil's top rated is Ghostwriter on 134, Haatem on 130 is adjusted to 97. If you all top rated the same horse it would have the perfect 100 score.
# Horse Odds BF Av100 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 97.8 2 Haatem 34 38 97.0 3 Ghostwriter 17 20 96.4 4 River Tiber 41 130 93.9 5 Henry Longfellow 26 26 93.0 6 Rosallion 5 8.2 93.0 7 Task Force 21 23 92.5 8 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 90.3 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 89.9 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 89.1 11 Notable Speech 11 14.5 86.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 83.3 13 Diego Velazquez 51 100 82.5 14 Iberian 26 48 81.8  

Coventry v Ipswich tonight interests me. In the EFL Championship this season, Leicester top the league for goals in second half. 2nd and 3rd is Ipswich and Coventry and now they go up against each other.
5pts Half with most goals (2nd) evens paddypower

This is bang on the money "as long as no one laughs at my stakes. (it's what keeps it fun and not really gambling in my eyes)" having said that i would have pissed myself laughing if it was 10p EW 🤣

Now each of us (inc Harry) have to decide where/what the best bet is out of this lot.
@MCLARKE @harry_rag @richard-westwood lets say we all have £20 quid to waste.

Going to take a break before I disappear up my own rabbit hole but here's a couple of tables that may be of interest (or not).
# Horse Odds BF MaxAv 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 113.0 2 Henry Longfellow 26 26 110.8 3 Task Force 21 23 110.3 4 Haatem 34 38 109.0 5 Ghostwriter 17 20 107.6 6 River Tiber 41 130 107.6 7 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 106.3 8 Rosallion 5 8.2 104.9 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 101.0 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 100.7 11 Diego Velazquez 51 100 100.7 12 Notable Speech 11 14.5 98.3 13 Inisherin 34 55 97.9 14 Iberian 26 48 97.5 Sorted by best individual rating (shows you all agree the bottom 6 are bang average or worse).
# Horse Odds BF MinAv 1 Ghostwriter 17 20 105.6 2 Haatem 34 38 103.9 3 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 103.1 4 River Tiber 41 130 100.7 5 Rosallion 5 8.2 97.9 6 Alyanaabi 21 29 96.7 7 Night Raider 17 17.5 94.6 8 Task Force 21 23 94.3 9 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 92.1 10 Notable Speech 11 14.5 92.1 11 Henry Longfellow 26 26 91.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 86.3 13 Iberian 26 48 83.3 14 Diego Velazquez 51 100 75.9 Sorted by worst individual rating (shows you all agree the top 4 are at least slightly better than average).

Is that with or without Occams Razor applied? 😁
I think the adjusted column shows up the Missing Clarkey horse Henry Longfellow and its significance and his problem going forward quite well. 12th to fourth.

A first cut for one option of combining your collective wisdom. This sets each of your top rated as 100 and adjusts everything else based on it's rating as a % of the top rated. (e.g. Zil's top rated is Ghostwriter on 134, Haatem on 130 is adjusted to 97. If you all top rated the same horse it would have the perfect 100 score.
# Horse Odds BF Av100 1 City of Troy 1.666 1.73 97.8 2 Haatem 34 38 97.0 3 Ghostwriter 17 20 96.4 4 River Tiber 41 130 93.9 5 Henry Longfellow 26 26 93.0 6 Rosallion 5 8.2 93.0 7 Task Force 21 23 92.5 8 Ten Bob Tony 51 190 90.3 9 Alyanaabi 21 29 89.9 10 Night Raider 17 17.5 89.1 11 Notable Speech 11 14.5 86.1 12 Inisherin 34 55 83.3 13 Diego Velazquez 51 100 82.5 14 Iberian 26 48 81.8  

These are my weighted ratings for the "missing" horses. Based on what % their rating was of the top rating and average rating for each of the other sources. I think it's a more reasonable guess at what their numbers might have been! 

Totals adjusted column has averages for the omissions In the MCLARK column (Henry Longfellow) and the Stopwatch column (Night Raider & Notable speech) one could add these on in the respective columns if you don't like the omissions.
The omissions are as follows
Henry Longfellow    87 MCLARK (MR)
Night Raider             67 Stopwatch (SR)
Notable Speech       67 Stopwatch (SR)
@harry_rag

Fair points that illustrate “what type of punter are you” is yet another variable to throw into the mix generally!
I’d have said there are theoretical extremes where most punters would go one way or the other (a tiny difference in price for a couple of extra places or only getting half the odds for a single extra place) but everything in the middle is harder to call.
I might knock a spreadsheet together and perhaps @The Equaliser and anyone else who experiences the dilemma can try it out. I might get some use out of it in other sports. At least I can get the idea out of my head then and fully concentrate on the stuff I actually bet on day in day out!

I'm getting a bit lazy in my old age, I enjoy the analysis of my data but don't really enjoy manually inputting data which is what I would have to do for the foreign races.

Rather than start another thread I've had time to rate another Newmarket race on the card ...the will hill extra place hcap 1.45 .....not sure how many will actually run ... Currently 24 runners .....I doubt no where near that will run but after rating it .....3 horses clear of rest 
Rohaan.   8.9 12/1 ( bet 365 go 7/1!!)
Aberrama gold. 8.6 14/1 
First folio. 8.5 20/1 
Generous prices currently on offer .....there's a risk that some horses may drop out but I'll risk 5pt on all 3 as come Saturday if they run the prices could look huge 

Much as I’d love to say I’ve got better things to do I’ll definitely give it a once over. I sometimes do similar things when looking at antepost bets on World Cups and Euros etc. where there are 2 or 3 sets of rankings. Sometimes converting them to an index works, where the top rated in an index is set at 100 and everything else the appropriate proportion. Give me the various sets of ratings and I’ll have a butchers.