harry_rag

Still unsure what happened with the odds yesterday (just a big price move on the back of KP having tipped the selection or the original price offered in error) but the bet lost regardless with QPR being out-cornered 8-2. 3 winner from 5 bets this season, profit +0.63 points with a yield of +12.5% and overall +19.71 with a yield of 25.59% from 77 bets.

D'oh. Well done Harry.

Hi Muppet, see my posts above.

Norwich gained 2 yellow cards to Sunderland's one so the bet won. It was a 1 point advised stake again. 1 winner from 2 bets this season, loss -0.15 points with a yield of -7.5% and overall +18.93 with a yield of 25.58% from 74 bets.

Norwich gained 2 yellow cards to Sunderland's one so the bet won. It was a 1 point advised stake again. 1 winner from 2 bets this season, loss -0.15 points with a yield of -7.5% and overall +18.93 with a yield of 25.58% from 74 bets.

Did think about starting a new thread for this season but, for now, will just stick this in here. According to one of my usual sources, today's selection is time of 1st goal 30th minute or before in the Norwich v C Palace game. As they don't tend to post the price, I'll hazard a guess (TBC) that the advised price was 6/5 with Boyles. They now go 21/20 and the evens on offer with PP is the only other place I'm aware of that it's not odds on.

National League There always seems to be a change to the name of the league and this season is the biggest one yet as the Conference has been rebranded (rather pointlessly in my view) and it is now known as the National League. Let’s start with the team I think are going to be going up as Champions. I usually start fancying one team for the title around the beginning of April and that team this time around was Eastleigh. They remind me a lot of Fleetwood. A small team who are well funded and who made the play-offs in their first season in the division. Fleetwood were well beaten by AFC Wimbledon and Eastleigh were comfortably seen off by Grimsby last term. The year after Fleetwood were fairly easy winners of the title and although I doubt Eastleigh have a Jamie Vardy lurking in their ranks, I really do think they can repeat what Fleetwood did. Last season I made plenty opposing Eastleigh away from home during the first half of the season as they really struggled. However in the 2nd half of the season their away form massively improved as they got to grips with the league. If they can perform like that over the whole season then that should see them with enough points to land the title. Their home form dipped a little after being pretty much unbeatable for a fair part of the season, but it provided a solid base. They have signed well over the summer to add to an already strong team and I find it pretty hard to see how they cannot improve on what they achieved last season. Fleetwood needed a year at this level (as most clubs do whichever league they have come from) and Eastleigh clearly did as well. I think there are very few teams who can win the league this season and on that basis I think they are a very solid e/w bet at 8/1 (general) as I would be surprised if they finished outside the first three. I was planning on having a lumpy win single on Eastleigh, but one of the reasons why I have gone e/w way is because I have begun to fancy Grimsby more and more. I have never fancied Grimsby to win the league and it may seem odd to fancy them this time around, given the poor record of play-off final losers in their next season at this level, but there are reasons to think this could be the year that they finally get out of the division. To help get over the upset of losing at Wembley, Grimsby fans have given more than £100k to the club to spend on players. That is a huge amount and how can it not lift the players to want to do well for the fans who have helped play their wages. They have lost a couple of vital players from last season and I must admit I am not sure that £50k signee Omar Bogle is up to making the step up, but they have added well to the squad. They have also been superb in pre-season. Now I am not one to get carried away with pre-season form as it doesn’t mean an awful lot in the grand scheme of things, but in this case I think it is fairly important as it proves the players are in the right frame of mind after play-off heartache in May. They have tended to not be quite good enough to win the title in the last few seasons, but I think they are in the best position they have ever been and they have to be the savers at 5/1. T ranmere are also at the head of the market and they have done well to get Gray Brabin in as manager as he knows the league well, which I always think is crucial. He has got some decent players in as well and I do think they can reach the play-offs, but given Bristol Rovers couldn’t even win the title last season I find it hard to see how a smaller club like Tranmere can. It was Rovers’ slow start which stopped them and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it took Tranmere a while to acclimatise. It is so hard for relegated teams to go up at the first time of asking and if Tranmere are to do it I think it will be via the play-offs. Being a Gloucester City fan I have been desperate for Cheltenham to be relegated back to non-league for years, so naturally I was happy with their relegation. The only snag is I now have to think about them as a punting prospect and thus have to forget about me wanting to lose every game. With that in mind I actually think they might do OK this season and could sneak into the play-offs. Gary Johnson hasn’t been in the league for a while, but he has won the division before and he has made some solid signings. However the same comments for Tranmere apply here and, as Cheltenham are an even smaller club, I struggle to see them doing any better than the play-offs and they are more likely to just miss out. The other Gloucestershire club in the division, Forest Green, are in single figures yet again to win the division, but they have struggled to put money into a proper title bid. They did reach the play-offs last season, however they never really looked like beating Bristol Rovers. I am not overly enthused by the players they have signed and I just think they will be found lacking again. I am not sure they have the right man in charge either, although he does now have a season at this level under his belt. They can go well again, but I just can’t see them winning it. Wrexham are the other team near the head of the betting and they have done well in getting Gary Mills in as manager. I was impressed with what he did at Gateshead and he knows the league very well. I can’t help thinking he will need another season to gain promotion though and they might well be the team I end up backing this time next year. Past these six, it is pretty hard to see any of the others being capable of winning the division. Woking gave us a great run for our money at big odds last season and really should have been in the play-offs. Gary Hill might well be able to find a bit more improvement, but it is hard to see how they can improve enough to get anywhere near a title bid. Barrow just won the Conference North last season and have money, but they haven’t made any eye-catching signings and I don’t fancy them at all. I can’t see Gateshead doing much now Gary Mills has left and Halifax look a shadow of the side they have been the last two seasons and they might struggle to get into the top half. Lincoln have signed well and although the manager is unproven they might well do better than their odds suggest. I think the same can be said about Aldershot and I like the players they have added. Consistency has been their big problem since being back in the division, but if that can be fixed then they might be capable of being in and around the play-offs. Chester could improve under Steve Burr, and Bromley could end up being the best of the promoted sides. They have signed well and usually one of the promoted teams end up doing very well so it could be them. Bet 365 have a handicap market and I think it is worth taking Eastleigh with a +4 start and Aldershot with a +23 start. Betway have a “to finish in the bottom 4” market and it looks competitive. If I had to name three I think will go down it would be Welling, Altrincham and Southport. None of them offer much value though so I will take a couple of chances of finding the fourth team. Braintree could be in for a season of struggle now Alan Devonshire has left and they are a team who have really been punching above their weight being in the division. Their pitch is always waterlogged as well and they could easily have a busy last couple of months to the season if the weather is against them. Their squad doesn’t look that strong either and they look a fair price at 11/4. The other team worth backing are Torquay. That might sound surprising, but they nearly went out of business over the summer and their manager Paul Cox has admitted he has a full-time team on part-time wages. I do like Paul Cox as a manger and he might well be able to see them safe, but with a young squad and little money to strengthen, they could well be in for a long season. At 7/2 they are certainly worth an interest.

Good luck with this, will follow with greater interest and some hard cash I think this year!

Shame I didn't only go with McCaw as he was the only one of the trio to score a try! One bet in the later game from the several that made the shortlist. Argentina v USA: 10 points on Ortega Desio to score a try at 8/1 with Betfred or BF Sportsbook Edge of 35.2%.

South Africa v New Zealand: 10 points each on Habana to score a try at 11/4 with Skybet Louw to score a try at 8/1 with Skybet McCaw to score a try at 6/1 with Lads Edges of 22.5%, 70% and 32.2%. Might have just gone with the latter based on price and stats but decided to go with Louw as the edge is so big and someone's keen to get matched at the same price on BF (whereas most other players are easily backable at the best available bookies price). Decided to back him rather than end up regretting not doing so! Habana becomes a bet because Skybet have pushed him out as an enhanced odds special; would have swerved him at the generally best available 9/4.

Betman - I'd encourage you to simply carry on posting your selections. If you don't like someone else's opinions you're perfectly entitled to mentally file them under "idiot" and ignore their posts. That said, if you don't like the modest degree of rough and tumble that comes with posting bets on a public forum, then simply stop posting. I do think you should stop demanding that people be banned or accounts deleted! With regard to liquidglass's post, I do feel that some of it (highlighted in bold) merits comment.
Most of us would generally counsel against expressing opinions in such absolute terms. It can make you look a little foolish and immature, regardless of the result. I'm less likely to take notice of someone's opinions when they're inclined to express them in those terms. No-one will ever get flak for posting a well reasoned losing bet, it goes with the territory. Good bets lose and bad bets win sometimes and odds on "certainties" often get chinned. Probably best, though, not to assume that propositions that are significantly odds against will definitely happen! As a wise man recently said, "I really do not think that you have thought this thing through before writing"! Or, to put it another way, it's perfectly possible to be a Mug' punter without running the risk of being perceived as a "mug" punter!

Wise words from [uSER=45015]harry_rag[/uSER] :ok [uSER=9333]bet_man[/uSER] - I think you need to calm down and get over yourself a little. Nobody will be getting banned, deleted, hung from a cliff or savagely beaten round the head with a 6 foot dildo, so just relax and post. ;) [uSER=80575]liquidglass[/uSER] - Would be better to form your opinion in the form of your own post with your own bets, rather than dismantling somebody else's who you know is a little fragile, so do all us a favour please. ;)

Possible value on today's UK friendlies I have simply looked at the gap between the two sides divisions. For example, Havant & Waterlooville are in the National North, level 6 and Portsmouth are in League Two, level 4, so it's a TWO level gap (6-4 = 2). I have looked at odds on teams with the same gap in levels (e.g. all those with a two level gap), and simply picked the best odds for each level - Gap and value on odds for straight win for higher ranked club Havant & Waterlooville v Portsmouth TWO Portsmouth @ 1.7 Marathon Guiseley v Huddersfield THREE Huddersfield @ 1.6 Marathon Tonbridge Angels v Gillingham FOUR Gillingham @ 1.45 Marathon Lancaster City v Blackpool FIVE Blackpool @ 1.36 Boylesports

Viborg - Randers Viborg to win 2.05 Ladbrokes 3/5 units. The Price is dropping an in asia we have a Price around 1,65. This is becasuse Randers will mostly use reserve players today. They played EL the other night and in the coming week have another EL match and the start of the League. In Denmark the national bookie have Viborg as low as 1.62. Nice value here!

Women's World Cup Final: US- Japan We have a repeat of the 2011 final and the extremely well conditioned and prepared Japanese team have proved that win was no fluke and that they are perhaps the best team in the world and few will doubt that if they win this evening. In that previous final they twice came from behind to tie the US, including once in extra time and showed incredible mental strength to do so, I do not think that any other team in world football , would have been able to do so under similar circumstances. My preview of their quarter final win over Australia is reproduced below, that includes my pre tournament notes about how well prepared the Japanese were and how seriously they have taken their role as world champions and they have loved the four years since and I feel that once again they have been seriously underestimated by the oddsmakers and that there is no huge gulf between the two. Of course, this is not a coinflip as the US will have massive support in Vancouver, but Japan have already played here three times and will feel very much at home in stadium and city.They were disappointing against England in the semis, but I think that was the match in which all the pressure was on them, now it is very much on the US, they are going to have to make the running and they will be very vulnerable to the speed and technical ability of the Japanese. I think we might well see extra time again and I am happy to take ..... Japan +0.5 at 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

Bought bookings at 57 with Star Spreads and backed >30 points in the 1st half at 9/2 with PP The latter of those is another example of a fixed odds bet that offers good value if the spreads are right in their assessment of the game (it would be around 4.75 based on an expectation of 21 points in the 1st half). Would have won in 2 of Peru's 5 games so far and 1 of Paraguay's. Today's ref (Orozco) handled the Peru v Venezuela game where 45 of the 65 points came before the interval. Conversely, I can't find a way of backing total bookings in the match that appears to offer better value than a straight buy at 57. It might seem a bit perverse when the teams' average are only 54 and 52 but the ref's average in 4 Copa games is 60, the same as the last 4 meetings between the teams (2 friendlies and 2 World Cup qualifiers). Ref's average in Internationals since the 2011 Copa is 62.86 points. The last 4 3rd place games have seen make ups of 75, 75, 60 and 60 (average 67.5) which compares favourably to the last 4 finals (60, 70, 60 and 100, average 72). Best fixed odds options if you're inclined to get involved that way are 11/10 for >5.5 cards with 365 or 17/10 for >60 points with PP. 2-3 cards in the 1st half at 23/20 with Hills merits a mention as it would have landed in 9/10 of the games these 2 teams have played so far.

Copa America: Paraguay - Peru These 3rd and 4th place playoff games almost always produce goals, it is easy to see why, there is usually one side a little more motivated than the other and both can easily let intensity slip for what seems largely a meaningless fixture at the end of a long competition, coming after a gruelling domestic campaign for many. I do suspect that both would have taken 3rd or 4th spot if you had offered it to them pre tournament , so maybe we will see both going for it this evening, but each suffered a very disappointing semi final result, albeit for different reasons and they could let things slide if falling behind. However, both teams have players, Lucas Barrios of Paraguay and Peru's Paolo Guerrero who have a good chance to become the competition top scorer, that would be an honour both individually and for the nation and we can expect that to motivate both offensively. Paraguay are hard hit by injury and could be missing four players who started the semi final against Argentina in Roque Santa Cruz, Derlis Gonzalez, Bruno Valdez and Nelson Valdez, which would weaken them up top and especially on the right flank. Peru will be without suspended Carlos Zambrano from the backline and did have to play 60 minutes down to ten men after his sending off against the hosts, but that is counter balanced by having an extra day's rest and recovery time. Peru have impressed me more, I think they have a little more about them, look stronger defensively and at the ned of the day, Paraguay have only beaten Jamaica inside 90 minutes at the Copa and no team other team in nine starts and I have to suggest ....... Peru -0.25 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

3rd place preview: 4pts Peru vs Paraguay - Over 3 goals 2.05 BetVictor Usually these sort of matches are always open with both sides looking to put on a show with little to play for and the way Peru play anyway I’m pretty confident that will be the case here too. The last two third placed playoffs have finished 3-1 and 4-1 and I’m expecting another high scoring match here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/peru-vs-paraguay-betting-third-place-up-for-grabs-for-these-two

Copa America: Chile- Peru With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that. They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile and I have to take ..............1 Peru +1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket. Gary Medel and David Pizzaro ended the Bolivia game in the middle of the backline for Chile, they are each 1.71m tall, Guerrero and Claudio Pizzaro are both 1.84m + and this could be a real route to goal for Peru, who are a very tempting 6.5-7.0 general quote to score twice ("over" 1.5 goals) , how about something small on that.....

Semi final 1 preview: 4pts Chile vs Peru - Over 2.5 goals 7/5 Betfair Instead I’ll look to the goals market where over 2.5 goals looks a big price. These two have probably been the two most attacking sides in the competition and both have shown vulnerabilities in defence. Four of their last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and we could well be set for another one here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-peru-betting-hosts-chile-look-to-progress-to-their-own-final

Good luck with that bet, I may be tempted to follow, just having a closer look at the game. 16/5 available now. French Goal Rush can be bought at 11 and their 2nd goal time sold at 82 if the spreads are your preferred punting medium. If there's a half decent price on offer, I'll probably back Renard to score, if only because she inevitably will net if I choose this game to not back her!

Germany-France. France Women to score 2 or more goals. 11/4 B365 I think this game is much closer than the layers suggest. Initially I was going to plop for France at 3/1 to win the game, but I believe if they are going to do so they may well have to score more than one goal. The French performance against England doesn't look so bad now given England's progress in the competition. Their game against Columbia was to bad to mention. the riot act was clearly read and the French girls responded in style, shredding Mexico and cruising past South Korea. The last three meetings have seen two draws and a 2-0 win to France, that being last October in the most recent game. France play a good brand of attacking football and have more than one capable goalscorer in Eugenie Le Sommer and Marie-Laure Delie Germany are a strong team and have progressed as expected, however they have conceeded to France in the past five meetings and more than once in three of those games. Based on that and a hungry, resurgent France, I will op for them to score at least two, but wouldn't be totally surprised to see a French victory.

Group A final group games Tuesday 24th June 19.45 All four teams can qualify. This should make for some exciting games, and there could be quite a few goals. I think odds for 'overs' are worth taking at current odds. UEFA preview: http://www.uefa.com/under21/news/newsid=2260091.html Czech U21 - Germany U21 3rd v 1st Germany need a DRAW OR WIN to be sure Czechs need a WIN to be sure and are out if they lose The two sides have averaged 3 goals per game in their four group matches so far Over 2.5 1.73 188Bet Stake: 5 points Denmark U21 - Serbia U21 2nd v 4th Denmark need a WIN to be sure and are out if they lose Serbia need a WIN to stand any chance The two sides have averaged 3 goals per game in their four group matches so far Over 2.5 2.03 188Bet Stake: 5 points

The late game i made four bets and 8 units played. Two out four bets won which meant 13,7 in return and 5,7 units profit. Made 8 bets today here in the forum and made a profit of 8,4 units. Hopefully somebody joined? Will post more bets next round if there is anybody interested, let me know.