harry_rag

Great start to the new season, Leeds to good to miss at that price.  St Helens to beat Castleford at 1.8 and doubled with Wigan to beat Salford at 1.44
Good luck

Let's get the thread ready for the first selection when it arrives.
Similar to the previous attempt, value fixed odds bets based on my view of the spread price. Objective criteria, no opinion.
Football, Rugby Union and Rugby League, anytime goalscorers and anytime and 2 or more tryscorers.
Maximum four players per game, the aim is to arrive at a sample of at least 500 bets, with at least 100 from each of the 3 sports.

Trimmed to 11/4 but 7/2 available if you have a Spreadex account,

Good luck
Top 20 Finish
Harris English @ 100-30  Betfair Sports
Like the way he has progressed the last 3 weeks, and has finished inside the 20 in three of the last 6 years here

2 winners since the last update.
14 winners from 21 selections, +10.2 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 45.33%. +9.25 points to level stakes with an ROI of 44.05%.

The plan is to go again with a new thread starting 1st Feb, criteria to be confirmed when I've resolved the last few details.
I won't go into chapter and verse but, based on strike rate and ROI, rugby league was the most profitable sport, albeit based on a smaller sample than football and Union. The latter 2 had very similar figures for all metrics. American Football results were very poor but based on a very small sample, as the season's all but over I can forget about that sport for the time being.
"2 or more" bets were profitable on both codes of rugby but not on football. I'll be taking that at face value and continuing with them for the oval ball sports but not the spherical one!  Makes sense as the anytime price is likely to be prohibitively short more often in RU and RL than it is in football.
Will aim to record 500 bets with at least 100 from each of the 3 sports and see what the results look like.

Can only echo my response re the 6 Nations, looking forward to the betting on tryscorers, will no doubt take a closer look at the markets over the next week or so.

LEICESTER 2-0

QPR - 0-3 13 attempts , 2 on target

MAINZ - 3-2

STRASBOURG - 3-2

DEN HAAG - 1-1 only 7 attempts , 2 on target..

VITESSE - 1-1 16 attempts , 4 on target

Which would have been a small profit of 3.30pts..

Will continue to monitor up till Friday and hopefully go 'Live' for the weekend.

I can't help in anything but this was a great thread and sadly closing. It was doing pretty well. Actually, did the thread seem to go better before you changed how you decided to choose which player to bet on? Sorry, I can't seem to find that post. Good luck with your other threads. 

I've been looking in from time to time - haven't been following though. If I had been then posting 5 minutes before a football match starts would make it harder to get on, but I appreciate that it's difficult to put up picks for lots of matches if you aren't doing it until very close to kick-off given that you're waiting on team news. As far as advice on how to take this forward goes, if you aren't already then I'd suggest focusing on hotshot players only. Not only would doing this drastically reduce the amount of time spent researching matches, it should also help to smooth out the variance that inevitably comes with higher prices as the hotshot players should be more regular scorers. I'd also consider dropping two and three goal bets - you get the occasional win obviously but in the long run is it worth it. I'm not sure.

Slight correction to the above post, there were actually 164 winners so the strike rate was 30.15%.
I can confirm this thread is closed but there'll be a brief "end of term" report to follow shortly in terms of which sports scored A+ and which earned a "must try harder".
I'm still debating if/when/how to go again with this but, if I do, it will be in a new thread for this year's bets. The new Superleague season starting on 1st of February is certainly an interesting opportunity.
I'm considering a slightly different approach to how I assess the minimum acceptable odds and also reviewing my approach to recording the bets,
In the meantime I'd welcome any feedback from anyone who followed the thread at all, e.g. what worked, what could have been better, which sports were of most interest and what sort of deadline I should set for posting (was 5 minutes too close to kick of to be of any use or interest?).

Had a tickle, as it were!

Money List [4 places @ 1/4]
Brooke Henderson
Each Way @ 35-1  Betfred
Finished 6th last year, and is a proven winner. Plays a lot of tournaments so should get decent run for our money.
 
 

Another nilling! Beginning to defy probability now! 
442.5 points risked and 224 returned, -218.5 points with an ROI of -49.38%.
5 winners from 22 bets.
I think I might have said I'd stop this if the losses hit 200 points but where's the fun in that! As these are bets I'm having anyway let's press on to 100 to see if, by that time, the results I post in here start to more accurately reflect my overall returns.
One for tonight's rugby to follow shortly.

!lacipot gnhitemos rof debbir gnieb ekil gnihtoN 

For the avoidance of (my) future doubt, I've had a small interest in this one, with the same firm.
Trying to keep better records this year, after previous "did I or didn't I" quandaries!

Good luck. Feels like a fun/lottery bet to me unless you're capable of beating the odds long term in this market (e.g. showing a profit if you'd backed singles to level stakes). 
Interesting to note that your returns were boosted by the 0-0 being treated as a non-runner in 2 doubles with the 1-1 so an extra 1.20 x 2 on your return.
The question for me is would you be better off taking the best available odds wherever they may be rather than rely on the occasional boost from this offer (e.g. if you could have obtained a 1 point better price for both winners you'd have got more back from that than with 365)?
Not something I'd expect you to track here but, in general terms, how often do you think you could get better prices by shopping around?

New season starts in a couple of weeks
Money List [3 places.1/4]
Brandt Jobe
Each Way @ 50-1 Skybet
Had first win last year and a class act who should figure in all five lucrative Majors

6-3 to West Ham on corners so another winner.
10 winners from 16 selections, +7.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 41.67%. +5.4 points to level stakes with an ROI of 33.75%.

Seem to be treading water a bit but small profit since the last update. That seasonal break beckons I think but we'll see what this weekend brings.
164 winners from 533 bets (30.77%), +77.15% points with an ROI of 14.48%

As I understand it, it's based on any set of bets with around a 15% probability of success which is roughly in the middle of the probabilities of correct scores priced at 6 to 7. The fact you are only betting when there is perceived value in a correct score price relative to SAM's calculations might help to bring down any losing streaks a little, but as an example even if you're betting correct scores priced between 6 and 7 when they should be 5 you will still likely encounter a run of 30 losers or so. From that perspective, it's probably best to be cautious and factor in a losing run of 40 when deciding what bank percentage should be invested in each correct score bet. For correct scores priced 7 to 8, a losing streak of about 50 could occur and again that would need to be taken into account so that the right stake is used.

Stick at it Harry. The sample is way too small to draw any conclusions - you could have an ROI of +47.67% and it wouldn't really mean anything. 

Seem to be treading water a bit but small profit since the last update. That seasonal break beckons I think but we'll see what this weekend brings.
164 winners from 533 bets (30.77%), +77.15% points with an ROI of 14.48%

Nice

"No goalscorer" the winning pick in that game, a stark reminder that even the best bets can lose. (I believe this was probably the best value bet in this thread so far but, as ever, the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen.) Hopefully I can turn this round but I'll set a "stop loss" of 200 points for the thread. If the loss hits that mark I'll call it quits and scurry off into the corner.
268.5 points risked and 174 returned, -94.5 points with an ROI of -35.2%.
4 winners from 14 bets.