Grex Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 (edited) I have been around on this Forum for a long time – and have published various systems with varying degrees of success Previously, I have usually tried to develop my own statistical system for predicting the results of matches. However, this system is different in that it “piggy-backs” on the predictions of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) – developed by Ian McHale, a professor at the University of Liverpool. The predictions apply only to the English Premier League. As SAM’s predictions are published on the BBC website, I hope that I am not infringing any copyright rules by using them. Basically, my system takes SAM’s predictions for 1-X-2 and compares the projected probability with published odds on Bet365 in order to calculate odds “value”. Then, by applying cut-off limits to the “value” and to the odds themselves, the system selects games on which to bet 1-X-2. SAM also predicts the most likely score-lines, and I have included these in the system as a test. I have followed the system for a very limited number of games in the EPL this season – there are gaps in the coverage, when I failed to get access to SAM’s predictions. The performance is good, but obviously with limited data. The table below shows the results to date, and the selections for Saturday’s games. I stress that this is still very much in the testing phase, and I recommend that nobody risks their hard cash until the system demonstrates profit (if any) over a longer period. I will update the table after Saturday’s games, and include selections for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday (SAM’s predictions are not yet available). Wish me luck Edited April 30, 2018 by Grex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Good luck. Have been struck by a sense of deja vu, have you posted a similar system before, or proposed doing it? Grex 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 (edited) Thanks, Harry. I recently mentioned the possibility of starting a new system in my old "HOMES" thread, but I have never used SAM's predictions before. By the way, I apologise for the poor definition of the graphic in my first post - I will have to work on this - possibly, using another image hosting site. Edited November 17, 2017 by Grex harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Cheers, I was thinking of a thread started by the Curlyone1 called "Sam Says" in Glory Hunts last year. Nice to know I'm not imagining things! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 It's only people of my age that imagine things - it's called senile dementia One clarification..... in the red "BET" column, "NB" = No Bet - so, there are only 5 selections for Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 (edited) A good start for the 1-X-2 selections - 52% ROI. A marginal profit for the "correct score" system - only one winner out of eight. I suppose this is to be expected with odds of 5.5 to 8.5. It will be a roller-coaster ride - but let's see how it goes. Summary of results in the table below, plus a selection for Sunday. Unfortunately, SAM's predictions for Monday's game are not published yet, so I will post again on Monday morning. Edited November 18, 2017 by Grex English !! Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Nice start Grex , expected nothing less !! Grex 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 It doesn't look as if BBC is going to publish the SAM predictions for the Monday game So, I post the update including Sunday's Watford v West Ham game - the correct result, but not the correct score. I have adjusted the font - so, I hope it is easier to read. The ROI on 1-X-2 system moves up slightly to 62% - but still VERY early days. only1woz and jtw1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 24, 2017 Author Share Posted November 24, 2017 Selection for the weekend, including West Ham tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Not much joy with the 1-X-2 selections - into negative territory - overall ROI -3% Better for the correct score selections, with 3 out of 10 correct - overall ROI +58% Let's see if BBC publish the SAM predictions for the mid-week round of games. jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 It looks as though BBC are NOT going to publish SAM's predictions for the mid-week games so, we will have to wait until the weekend for the next "exciting" installment. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Selections for the weekend..... including United to beat Arsenal (unlikely) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 On 01/12/2017 at 3:44 PM, Grex said: Selections for the weekend..... including United to beat Arsenal (unlikely) Oh, ye of little faith thecurlyone1 and vikki37 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 A good weekend....... 1-X-2 selections into positive territory again - 18 bets - overall ROI +10% Correct score selections - 29 bets - overall ROI +76% vikki37, thecurlyone1 and jtw1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Selections for Saturday - a lot of home wins - let's hope they oblige I will post Sunday's selections tomorrow morning based on up-to-date odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Status quo maintained for the 1-X-2 selections (ROI +10%) No winners for the correct scores Sunday's selections below..... personally, I hope the last one fails Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 6 hours ago, Grex said: Status quo maintained for the 1-X-2 selections (ROI +10%) No winners for the correct scores Sunday's selections below..... personally, I hope the last one fails Called off I like your hope. Same here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 The status quo for 1-X-2 continues - 25 bets - ROI +10%...... unfortunately, the last selection won Only one winner for the correct scores - 39 bets - ROI +49% I don't think BBC will publish the SAM predictions for the mid-week games - so, until next weekend vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Sam has made predictions for tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotherpunter Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Can you provide a link to where the predictions are published on the BBC website - I seem to be wearing blinkers when hunting on the BBC site for this. Thanking you in advance if this is available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 9 hours ago, thecurlyone1 said: Sam has made predictions for tonight You were right, Curly One - but, unfortunately, I was travelling and missed them Hi, Justanotherpunter - you can find the predictions at the bottom of each analysis page on BBC Sport, e.g. for tomorrow's Newcastle v Everton game, the link is http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/42247118 1-X-2 selections for Wednesday evening are few - but they do include the first "X" selection. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Arsenal's draw rescued what would, otherwise, have been a disappointing evening. 1-X-2...... 28 bets - ROI +14% Correct scores...... 46 bets - ROI +39% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesitsme Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Are people tending to put bets on just 1x2, just correct score, or both? And level stakes, or vary it based on the odds? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Haven't got a clue what people are putting their money on (if any). I did say in my first post "I recommend that nobody risks their hard cash until the system demonstrates profit (if any) over a longer period"......... and this still applies. It is still VERY early days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesitsme Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Understood. I'm toying with it, albeit tiny stakes (1 or 2£) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, yesitsme said: Understood. I'm toying with it, albeit tiny stakes (1 or 2£) You have been warned But, if you are going to go for it, I suggest you bet on the 1-X-2. Although SAM uses unknown algorithms to predict "correct scores", they are still an absolute lottery - OK, it's providing a good ROI at the moment, but with odds of 7.0 - 8.0, there could be very L - O - N - G losing streaks Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Sound advice Grex. Very roughly, the correct scores could conceivably see 40 or so losers in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Thanks, Torque. A losing streak of 40 would kill most bettors. Presumably this figure is based on random betting. Perhaps SAM's more informed analysis will reduce the risk of having such long losing streaks - but it should still be avoided. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesitsme Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Grex said: You have been warned But, if you are going to go for it, I suggest you bet on the 1-X-2. Although SAM uses unknown algorithms to predict "correct scores", they are still an absolute lottery - OK, it's providing a good ROI at the moment, but with odds of 7.0 - 8.0, there could be very L - O - N - G losing streaks Cheers - don't worry, I won't blame you if I lose money! I agree. The correct score looked tempting at first, but hasn't won in several bets. The 1x2 ought to be more consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, Grex said: Thanks, Torque. A losing streak of 40 would kill most bettors. Presumably this figure is based on random betting. Perhaps SAM's more informed analysis will reduce the risk of having such long losing streaks - but it should still be avoided. As I understand it, it's based on any set of bets with around a 15% probability of success which is roughly in the middle of the probabilities of correct scores priced at 6 to 7. The fact you are only betting when there is perceived value in a correct score price relative to SAM's calculations might help to bring down any losing streaks a little, but as an example even if you're betting correct scores priced between 6 and 7 when they should be 5 you will still likely encounter a run of 30 losers or so. From that perspective, it's probably best to be cautious and factor in a losing run of 40 when deciding what bank percentage should be invested in each correct score bet. For correct scores priced 7 to 8, a losing streak of about 50 could occur and again that would need to be taken into account so that the right stake is used. Edited December 14, 2017 by Torque harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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