jtw1 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The purpose of this thread is to try and identify a match where one side has [in theory] a good chance of scoring at least 2 goals. Major leagues only . soccerstats.com is the primary source i'll be using . Bet 1 - Friday - REAL SOCIEDAD to score at least 2 away to Girona. Reasoning - Sociedad have scored 2+ in 3/5 aways this season and have an average of 14 shots on target in those 5 games. They have no serious Injury or suspensions. Girona have conceded at least 2 in 3/6 homes. ODDS - 2.20 from Bet365 10pts staked harry_rag and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 good luck jtw1 might miss 1st bet sociedad my boggie team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Can't keep a good man down - good luck, JTW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Good luck, will follow with interest and no doubt join in after a spectacular run of winners just as you hit your first bad spell! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 (edited) After a 7th minute goal i was thinking this is an easy way to make money...... 1-1 ft .... Anyway after being unable to post for saturday's games here 3 interesting picks for Sunday. SAMPDORIA v juventus ...After 5 homes Samp have scored at least two in all those games whilst Juve have conceded 2+ in 3/5 aways. Juventus have an important CL game at home to Barcelona mid-week so some players may be rested for this . Odds for Sampdoria 2+ goals = 3.75 INTER v atalanta ...4/6 homes have had 2+ while Atalanta have conceded 2+ in 3/5 aways Atalanta have a mid-week Euro qualifier v Everton Odds for INTER 2+ = 1.66 *If Icardi [11 goals this season] does not start then it's a no-bet . utrecht v EXCELSIOR ...The away side have a 100% 2+ record in 5 aways this season Excelsior have a full team to choose from. Odds for EXCELSIOR 2+ - 3.75 Edited November 18, 2017 by jtw1 LEE-GRAYS and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 EXCELSIOR despite having the same amount of shots on target as Utrecht could only muster 1 goal... HOWEVER ...Sampdoria done us proud with a 3-2 win over Juventus and Mauro Icardi netted two for INTER at home to Atalanta. Bets - 4 Wins - 2 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +14.10pts Grex, vikki37 and harry_rag 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 Tuesday - Championship MILLWALL v hull - Millwall have scored 2+ in 4/8 homes [scored in 7/8] They will miss Jed Wallace [3 goals] but managed 2 goals away to Sunderland without him on saturday. They appear to have no other fresh injury/suspension worries. Hull have conceded in 7/8 aways [2+ in 4 of those 8] Both could well do with 3pts as they hover above the relegation zone . Odds - 2.1 [bet365] DERBY v qpr - Derby have scored 2+ in 4/7 [scored in 6/7] homes while Qpr have yet kept a clean sheet away from home this season [2+ in 4/8] Odds - 1.91 [corals] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 DERBY 2-0 MILLWALL 0-0 Bets - 6 Wins - 3 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +15.10pts WOLVES v leeds . Wolves have scored 2+ in 5/8 homes while Leeds have conceded 2+ in 4/8 Odds 1.66 Stake 10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aske Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Good luck. jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 25, 2017 Author Share Posted November 25, 2017 WOLVES 4-1 Bets - 7 Wins - 5 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +21.70pts CRYSTAL PALACE - 2+ goals in 3/6 homes [the last 3 homes actually] v a Stoke side who conceded 2+ in 3/6 and will continue to miss regular keeper Jack Butland. Odds - 2.1 bet365 BRISTOL CITY have scored 2+ in 5/9 aways and have a full squad to take to HULL who could be fancied themselves for at least but the fact they have let in 2+ in 5/9 homes diverts me to the away side at the odds . Odds - 2.20 bet365 SHEFF UTD have scored 2+ in 5/9 homes while Birmingham have conceded 2+ in 6/9 aways and are riddled with injuries in all areas. Odds - 1.73 [corals] INTER have scored 2+ in 4/6 aways [one of those 2 where they didn't was at leaders Napoli] while Cagliari have conceded on twice in 6 homes they failed to keep a clean sheet in 5/6 and have yet to face a side from the top 12 in the league [teams in 13,15,17,18,19 and 20th place have visited] Odds - 1.8 BETIS have scored 2+ in all 6 homes while Girona have conceded 2+ in 2/5 aways [only 1 clean sheet in those 5 ] but the away side will be missing regular central defender Espinosa who has not missed a game all season up until today. Odds - 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 (edited) CRYSTAL PALACE 2-1 BRISTOL CITY 2-3 SHEFF UTD 1-1 INTER 1-3 BETIS 2-2 Bets - 12 Wins - 9 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +48.70pts Edited November 26, 2017 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Germany - HOFFENHIEM - 2+ in 4/5 aways , Hamburg could be short of experienced bodies in midfield - Odds - 2.25 Italy - AC MILAN - 2+ in 3/6 homes [Roma and Juventus were 2 in which AC failed to score 2+] while Torino have conceded 2+ in 4/7 aways. Odds - 1.6 GENOA - 2+ in 3/6 homes but strangely enough those 3 in which they did score 2+ were against JUVE , LAZIO and NAPOLI. Roma are todays opponents and initially i fancied them to net 2+ but odds of 1.67 after being beaten by Atl Madrid over in the Spanish capital only 4 days ago my confidence in them waned .. Odds - a speculative punt on GENOA to score 2+ at 3.4 Spain - REAL SOCIEDAD - 2+ in 4/6 homes while Las Palmas have conceded 2+ in 3/6 aways and have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home [only 1 clean sheet in all games this season] . Although Sociedad played over in Norway mid week past results after a Euro game have been positive. Odds - 1.4 France - LYON - 2+ in 4/6 aways while Nice have conceded 2+ in 4/7 homes . Lyon have scored 15 goals in their last 4 away games [3 league and 1 euro] Odds - 1.83 MARSEILLE - 2+ in 4/6 [scored in all 6] at home to Guingamp who have conceded 2+ in 5/6 aways [conceded in all 6] and will be missing regular central defender/midfielder Lucas Deaux. Odds - 1.44 I'm trying to avoid odds of under 1.6 but the 2 selections under those odds appear to have very strong chances of coming in so , personally i'll be having a 10PT double on MARSEILLE / SOCIEDAD . 10PT win on the others . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Oh dear , back to earth with a very loud bang!!! HOFFENHIEM - 3-0 AC MILAN - 0-0 GENOA - 1-1 REAL SOCIEDAD - 2-2 LYON - 0-5 MARSEILLE - 1-0 Bets - 17 Wins - 10 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +17.00pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Tuesday - LEICESTER 2+ in 3/6 homes will be hosting Spurs who , imho , are weakened by the injury to Toby Alderweireld. Leicester have only once failed to score at least once and that was against the current leaders Man City . Odds - 3.40 WEST BROM 2+ in only 2/6 homes but they face a Newcastle side who were abject in defence on Saturday added to the fact that West Brom no longer have the defence-minded Tony Pulis in charge [Alan Pardew may well be named manager before this game ] and i believe in the short term positive effect of a change of regime . Newcastle have kept only one clean sheet away from St James's Park. Odds - 2.7 daveg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Bad luck at the weekend - but, as you say, "S.H.I.T Happens"..... sometimes. Still, 17 points profit from 17 bets at 10pt stakes is equivalent to a ROI of +10%..... which ain't at all bad !! Good luck with your Tuesday selections. jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 (edited) Wed - STOKE - 2+ in 3/6 and have hit the net in their last 7 league games.Liverpool [conceded 2+ in 4/6 aways] have yet to keep a clean sheet away from Anfield , conceding to the likes of Newcastle and West Ham . Odds - 3.40 Edited November 27, 2017 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Leicester and West Bromwich restore some pride ... for Stoke tomorrow.. Grex and LEE-GRAYS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) LEICESTER 2-1 WEST BROM 2-2 STOKE 0-3 Bets - 20 Wins - 12 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +48.00pts Edited November 30, 2017 by jtw1 LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 Friday - NAPOLI - 2+ in 5/6 homes while Juventus have conceded 2+ in 4/6 aways . Juve will be missing regular defender Stephan Lichtsteiner . H2H - Napoli have scored at least once in this fixture [at home] in all 13 League [11] and Cup games [2] since 2006 ...2+ in 9 of those. Odds - 2.05 ZWOLLE - 2+ in 5/6 [odd one was a 0-1 defeat to league leaders PSV] Utrecht have conceded 2+ in 3/7 aways . Zwolle have a full squad to choose from . Odds - 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Bets - 20 Wins - 12 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +48.00pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just spent over an hour selecting todays selections ...went to post ... must have pressed the wrong button ...GONE !!! So in a very small nutshell here they are , with odds for 2+ goals - EVERTON - 2.00 FULHAM - 2.0 RB LEIPZIG - 1.83 LEVERKUSEN - 1.66 TORINO - 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 A day to forget esp when the wrong choice was made when it was a 50/50 split in a couple of games ... Trying a slightly different approach today. WOLFSBURG V M'GALDBACH - G'ladbach have kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 aways , they have added another couple of players to the injury list . Hermann [midfield] and Jantschke [defence]. WOLFSBURG have improved their shots/shot-on-target and conversion ratio since new manager Schmidt took charge 8 games ago....this has taken their goals per game average from 0.50 per game to 1.65 per game.. Since 1999 there has been 10 previous fixtures where Wolfsburg , at home , have scored 2+ [from 16 games in total] and only once have Wolfsburg failed to score in those 16. Odds - Wolfsburg to score 2+ = 2.10 GETAFE V VALENCIA - Valencia have scored 2+ in 5/6 aways this season while Getafe have conceded in 5/6 homes . Getafe will be missing 2 regular defenders today . Valencia have scored 16 goals away from home and have found the net in the 8 last previous corresponding fixtures [4 times netting 2+] Odds - Valencia to score 2+ = 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 (edited) So heres the scores from Sat/Sun .......with a wee bit of a post mortem on the losers... EVERTON - 2-0 FULHAM - 3-1 No doubt looking at the stats that the red card on the 53rd min cost Fulham the oppotunity of a 2nd , 9 shots on target in the first half with 6 shots turned into 2 shots , none on target in the 2nd half. RB LEIPZIG - 4-0 Both sides have midweek Euro fixtures and possibly affected Leipzig rather than the Hoff..!! LEVERKUSEN - 1-1 Yet another red card [41st min] and some impressive goalkeeping stats cost us . TORINO - 1-1 appears to have a tight game , no excuses. WOLFSBURG - 3-0 VALENCIA - 1-0 Red card for Getafe in the first half on top of 7 other yellows and possestion stats of 32%/68% suggest this was possibly a robust defensive display from the home side !!!! Edited December 3, 2017 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Bets - 27 Wins - 14 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +18.10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Mon - VERONA v GENOA - Only once from 7 home games this season have Verona scored 2+ but when you take a closer look at the opposition they have faced - 9th , 1st , 5th , 6th , 7th , 2nd in the current league table [Rock-bottom Benevento only let in one] ...GENOA are in 17th . Odds for VERONA to score 2+ = 3.00 GIRONA v ALAVES - The home side have scored in 5/7 homes , Barcelona and 5th placed Seville were the 2 they failed to net against...but , ironically the 2 they did score 2 in were against both Madrid sides!! . They have faced 5 of the current top 6 in La Liga at home this season Rock bottom Alaves have only kept one clean sheet in 7 aways and have 3 suspended [inc 1 defender and 1 defensive midfielder] as well as up to 5 injured or doubtful and are on their 3rd manager this season. Odds for GIRONA to score 2+ = 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 hours ago, jtw1 said: So heres the scores from Sat/Sun .......with a wee bit of a post mortem on the losers... EVERTON - 2-0 FULHAM - 3-1 No doubt looking at the stats that the red card on the 53rd min cost Fulham the oppotunity of a 2nd , 9 shots on target in the first half with 6 shots turned into 2 shots , none on target in the 2nd half. RB LEIPZIG - 4-0 Both sides have midweek Euro fixtures and possibly affected Leipzig rather than the Hoff..!! LEVERKUSEN - 1-1 Yet another red card [41st min] and some impressive goalkeeping stats cost us . TORINO - 1-1 appears to have a tight game , no excuses. WOLFSBURG - 3-0 VALENCIA - 1-0 Red card for Getafe in the first half on top of 7 other yellows and possestion stats of 32%/68% suggest this was possibly a robust defensive display from the home side !!!! Nice analysis, JTW. Just shows that unforeseeable external influences (especially red cards) can undermine the best systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 I appear to have had a wee brain-fart and didn't post 2 selections on here from Monday.. [it's an age thing ] Not too much damage as there was 1 win and 1 loss [Girona for a return of 8.30pts and Verona for a 10pt loss , -1.70 on the day] Bets - 29 Wins - 15 Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +16.400pts. Sat - GETAFE v eibar is a 12.00 kick-off over in La Liga Getafe have only failed to score once in 7 homes [2+ in 3] while Eibar have only kept one clean sheet in 7 aways [2+ in 5] Getafe have an average of 10.7 shots-per-game in all matches , 12.4 in home games. Team news - Getafe will miss defensive mid-fielder Arambarri [suspended] but have 2 back from suspension [left back and central defender] Eibar - top goalscorer Charles is out as well as Defender Junca through injury. Odds - 2.25 Despite their lowly league posItion CRYSTAL PALACE have scored 2+ in their last 4 home league games against Chelsea , Stoke , Everton and West Ham with a s-p-g average of 12.2 [all] , 14.9 [home] while Bournemouth have conceded in [5/7 aways] Team news - Hopefully both Cabaye and Mcarthur will pass fit for Palace Bournemouth will miss the defensive strength of regular Adam Smith due to suspension as well as fellow defender Mings Odds - 2.05 DERBY are away to Barnsley today and they have hit the net in 9 of 10 away games they have played [ 2+ in 4 ] with a s-p-g average of 9.4 in away league games . Derby have scored 2+ in 3 of their last 5 games and 4 were against top 10 teams [Fulham are in 15th ] while Barnsley have lost 4of their last 5 games [one other was a draw] and conceded 10 in those 5 . Odds - 2.15 Thats it so afr for the early kick-offs , will be back later with this evenings picks [busy day ahead] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 2/3 this afternoon ..had a close look at the evening fixtures but nothing really stands out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 11 hours ago, jtw1 said: [it's an age thing ] Well done with your 2/3..... as for the "age thing".... I totally agree (I think I have a few more years on you) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 (edited) Sun - StandingsFRANCE: Ligue 1 09.12. Finished Guingamp 4 - 0 Dijon StandingsNETHERLANDS: Eredivisie 09.12. Finished Twente 2 - 3 Den Haag Edited December 10, 2017 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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