vikki37

1714 result: 2nd. Lost £100
1713 result: W 2-1, L 1-2. Lost £100
Loss to date £90.28
I started with a bank of £2020 almost two years ago and for most of that time I've been in profit, quite a lot at one stage. The thread has gone into the red now but the majority of the bank is still intact. I hope to get back into profit soon. I think I know how to do it but it will probably need less bets and to be more selective. It's been a difficult period this year with the lack of home support taking away a certain advantage. The amount of games in football that have been condensed into a shorter timescale has had an impact on players and results. This will need a bit of thought when choosing bets. 
 

yup. That's done.

can I add a joker to my pick, please? Thank you. 

yeah, I was frustrated with Walden because I knew the accy was there to win. The only loser looks to be Williams and I assumed Williams would win to be honest. He looks a different player at the moment. Could go quite deep here. Saengkham could easily trouble Higgins. That's just kicked off.
16/1 accy comes in 
Scottish Open bets +34.75pts
Snooker 2020 +249.25pts

I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really  well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything  ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement  so I feel all the hard work has been paid off  in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol 
I had this book years ago which had a formula you could do on a calculator ....it was about 7 or 9 stage formula .....I lost the book and couldn't remember the title .....if I could see it again I might try that because it was pretty good at picking winners ....if anyone knows what it is I'd love to know lol

1st 3rd 3rd ...14pts profit on the day 

Couple more for the later matches
Walden looks in good nick at the moment. Playing well and has just beat Junxu 4-0 in his previous match. Reached the latter stages of his last tournament and beat Williams. Speaking of Williams, I think his form has picked up abit recently and he isn't so easy to lay. I'm only taking Dale due to the price. Pengfei looked excellent against Gould. Gould didn't play well atall but Pengfei took advantage of every chance and made him pay. I can see him beating Wakelin today of whom I still think is bang out of form.
Lu Ning is the final bet and it's asmuch as seeing Un-Nooh out of form as it is seeing Ning IN form. Ning is looking like the old Lu Ning who I used to back all the time and that's good for the bank balance.
5pts R.Walden to beat T.Ford 23/20 betfair
4pts T.Pengfei to beat C.Wakelin 3/4 betfair
2.5pts Lu Ning to beat T.Un-Nooh 13/10 betfair
2.5pts D.Dale to beat M.Williams 23/10 willhill
1pt accy - Jamie Jones, Walden, Pengfei & Ning 16/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)
0.5pt outsider accy - Dale, O'Neill, Saengkham 32/1 bet365

Just the one I like for the afternoon matches and I'm taking on the player I backed in the previous round, Matthew Stevens. He is up against Jamie Jones, who is in abit of form right now having reached the Last 16 of the UK Championships last week. He had a favourable draw to be fair but he is scoring well enough having hit a century in his last round and a couple of 50+ breaks. He beat Stevens the last time they met in 2015.
Stevens safety play is actually good and it's what won him the game against Gilbert. Gilbert made alot of mistakes though. Jones should make less.
2.5pts J.Jones to beat M.Stevens 11/10 bet365

Morning All
The International Jockeys Challenge takes place today in Hong Kong at Happy Valley
Should be a fascinating watch [Races 4,5, 7 & 8]
I think two of the European riders have drawn decent horses so will play them both in the Top Jockey market
Ryan Moore @ 5-1 William Hill
Pierre-Charles Boudot @ 11-2 Paddy Power
1pt on each

Chelsea vs Krasnodar
The Champions League group phase wraps up this week and the first game I'm quickly previewing for this round is the Group E clash between group leaders Chelsea and 3rd place Krasnodar in an 8pm GMT kick-off at Stamford Bridge. Top spot is guaranteed for the home side but they'll need to get a win against a Russian team looking to end their group phase on a high after sealing the Europa League consolation place.
Chelsea can look back on this Champions League run so far and be satisfied. 4 wins and 1 draw from their 5 group matches so far has delivered 1st place and a seeding in the last 16 draw. Frank Lampard is expected to make a number of changes to his squad to rest key players. Keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga is set to return to the first team and youngster Billy Gilmour is also pushing for a start. The Blues boast a 100% record against Russian teams in this competition. Krasnodar are in the draw for the last 32 of the Europa League so could also rest players. The 4-0 defeat on home turf against Chelsea earlier in the campaign will give them motivation to make amends.
Even if Chelsea are resting a number of first team players I just can't see Krasnodar having enough about them to get a result. You look at the players coming in for the home team and they are still quality players. Krasnodar are also technically playing for nothing and it's a long trip to come to London for this game. I can see a standard home win with both sides fielding mix and match line-ups.
Chelsea -1 @ 1.72 with Paddy Power
Chelsea HT/FT @ 1.85 with SBK
 
RB Leipzig vs Manchester United
The big game of the night undoubtedly comes up at 8pm GMT when RB Leipzig entertain Manchester United at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in Group H. A draw will be enough to see the visitors through to the next round but they face one of the most attacking teams in European football who know they more than likely must win to progress.
RB Leipzig currently sit in 3rd place in this group but with the top three teams all on 9 points it couldn't be closer. Head coach Julian Nagelsmann will set his team up to play on the front foot and that could play into the hands of United's counter-attacking style. The German side have won both of their home games in this group. Manchester United know a draw will do but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has come out and claimed it is "not in our genes to play for a 0-0". Will he regret that approach? The Red Devils beat RB Leipzig 5-0 in the previous meeting but it was a tight 1-0 until the final 16 minutes when all hell broke loose. One worrying statistic is that United have lost their last two away games against Bundesliga opposition and Solskjaer has also lost 5 of his 9 games in charge of United in the Champions League.
We can expect a frenetic game here with the stakes severely increased. Both teams have the attacking capabilities to give their opponents problems. I can see there being goals and controversy. Eventually, I think it could be United that come away with a dramatic win but this is United. They have made a habit of screwing me over a lot. So the general rule is that if I back United you bet against them! 
Manchester United to Win @ 2.85 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.45 with RedZone

One final bit of potential value tonight is David Grace to beat Shaun Murphy. Murphy went out tamely of the UK Championship to Elliot Slessor, who then went out very tamely to Lu Ning (6-1) I know Slessor had some tip issues but we couldn't say he was in fantastic form with that easy win over Murphy. Grace is always hard to beat and after a long break from the tour you get the feeling that every tournament means alot. I think if the UK doesn't mean a great deal for Murphy, then a home nations tournament probably won't. Murphy has a very good h2h record with Grace and ofcourse he is likely to win here but if he isn't up to it then Grace is certainly value
2pt bet if Zifan doesn't win. 4pt bet if he does.
D.Grace to beat S.Murphy 9/4 paddypower

3rd

2/3 on Saturday with Dulwich and Boreham Wood both winning to keep the profits turning over. Tuesday I have 5 bets and 1 on Wednesday.
Barnet v Stockport
Barnet were better on Saturday against Wealdstone although Wealdstone still had the better chances to win the game and I just don't see how they can keep Stockport quiet on Tuesday night. Stockport had a very good 2-0 victory at Bromley on Saturday in their 1st league game back after their Covid break. John Rooney is on fire this season and he will fancy his chances against Barnet's shaky defence. Regular followers will know I don't often tip up odds on shots, but even at 19/20 and 10/11 they look a good value bet.
Bromley v Yeovil
Speaking of Bromley I think they look a good price to beat Yeovil. Bromley had their chances against Stockport and just couldn't finish them. Against a lesser side in Yeovil you would think they would get more joy. I put up Easteligh to beat Yeovil a week ago and they did so with ease as they continue to struggle in the league. Bromley were in good form prior to the Stockport loss and there was nothing in the performance to suggest there will be a dip in form due. They should be around the Even money mark for me.
Hartlepool v Kings Lynn
I am taking a bit of a flyer here as the price of 9/2 suggests, but I really do think Kings Lynn have a chance here. I mentioned their poor form when opposing them on Saturday and although Kings Lynn have a leaky defence we know Hartlepool are hardly prolific scorers. Even when they do lose they nearly always manage to score at least 1 goal and with Hartlepool only having scored 5 in 8 (3 of them came against Yeovil) I will take a chance that Kings Lynn can outscore their hosts. I would have them around 2/1 myself.
Chorley v Guiseley
They are clearly aren't going to be 18/1 to win this, but hopefully they can still win for us at 11/10 on Tuesday night. Chorley spoiled the welcome home party for Boston on Saturday when winning 2-0 and there wasn't a great deal wrong with drawing with Curzon last Tuesday as they are useful this season. Guiseley did have a good win against Spennymoor two games ago, but apart from that they have struggled for points. Chorley are in a false position in the league for me and they look a solid bet.
Marine v Hyde
Having tipped up two of the 4 FA Cup 3rd round Non-League sides I am going to add Marine to the list. As their FA Cup run has showed they are a very strong side for a Step 4 team this season and could easily hold their own in Hyde's league. These two sides wont be playing league football until January at the earliest, but the FA is carrying on with the FA Trophy which is why this is being played. Marine were allowed to train during lockdown because they were still in the FA Cup and they then obviously have had the Havant game as well. That should be to their advantage and Hyde have only won 1 league game out of 6 so far this season. Quite why Marine are 13/5 for this I don't know and they can have more cup success.
Havant & Waterlooville v Slough (Wednesday)
Havant will be kicking themselves for under performing against Marine in that FA Cup tie and they then followed that up with a poor performance in the league when losing 3-2 to Hemel a week ago. They finally bounced back to their league form prior to the FA Cup loss when beating Chelmsford 3-1 on Saturday and they will fancy their chances of beating an under performing Slough. Slough did manage to stop the rot by coming from 2 down to draw against Chippenham on Saturday, but there were 4 losses on the bounce prior to that draw and they have only managed to beat Bath and Hemel (on the opening day) this season. Havant should have too much for them.
Stockport 4pts @ 19/20 with William Hill and Betway
Bromley 2pts @ 7/5 with William Hill and Betway
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
Chorley 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
Marine 2pts @ 13/5 with Bet365
Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 23/20 with William Hill

1708 result: 3-1. Won £40
1709 result: Mallorca won 3-1. Won £32
Profit to date £404.72

I don't know how much snooker is going to be played tonight. They're already quite far behind because they're waiting on test results for Covid, from all the players. I have no idea why they leave these things so late. All seems abit amateurish. I do know that Trump is now playing tomorrow against Ursenbacher and not tonight. Whilst that means Trump will be more fresh, he's probably worth taking on. Ursenbacher is plenty capable as we saw with him beating Ronnie.
One tonight that looks overpriced is Zifan to beat Mark King. Zifan made the last 32 of the UK Championships, but got beaten easily 6-1 by McGill. McGill is pretty underrated though. He led Robbo 4-2 in the last 16 and had a brilliant worlds. He then got beat easily by Murphy but when Murphy turns up that can happen to anybody. Prior to that though he beat Bingtao and hit hit a century and a couple of 50+ breaks. He also beat Sijun with 3 50+ breaks. He beat King in their only head-2-head a while back. It's not like Mark is playing out his skin. He beat Lilley on a decider and then went out to Dott at the UK. He went out tamely to Surety at the Northern Ireland Open and also went out early at the English Open and Euro Masters. He is a battler but if he comes up against a scorer, they beat him. Kings highest break this year has been 76!! That's in 11 matches. I can see it being a bitty, boring match but I think ZIfan can take it 4-2/4-3.
2pts C.Zifan to beat M.King 9/4 paddypower

Another one of these this morning and short on time because up all night watching snooker. very low stakes just waiting on the worlds
0.5pts C.Wilkinson to win group 30/1 paddypower

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

Reading (1) @ 2.40
£20, please. good luck all. 

That was one intense final. Wow, Judd should have won it but Robbo did well to win when he had the chance.
The 15/2 comes in for me but betting only a point on it means a pretty even night 
onto the next one in 8 hours
UK Championship +15pts
Snooker 2020 +214.5pts

4pts A.McManus to beat Guodong 6/4 bet365
4pts M.Stevens to beat D.Gilbert 5/4 paddypower 

Starts in a matter of hours really if you think about it  
I'm thinking Trump and Robertson will both withdraw. I'm only guessing but even if they don't it's not going to be a priority event for them now.
alot of selections but 14pts staked and I think if my hunch does come true it will be worth having one of these big prices on board
2pts E/W K.Wilson to win Scottish Open 11/1 paddypower
1pt E/W J.Higgins to win Scottish Open 18/1 betvictor
1pt E/W G.Dott to win Scottish Open 50/1 betvictor
-------------------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts E/W Yuelong to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W A.McGill to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower 
0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win Scottish Open 125/1 paddypower
0.5pts E/W L.Brecel to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
 

Ten Pointers to better punting 
Having been a punter for the best part of 40 years and finally now become successful at it I thought it would be interesting and hopefully of some use to share some of my thoughts/ideas. So here are ten points that you can digest and then agree or disagree with.
 
1.         Keep a figure of EVERY bet you have. Be it on a spread sheet or in a pocket notebook. It really does make you become more disciplined as to how much you’re actually winning or losing. We’ve all got that friend who has told us or gone to social media to show us their big win which is fantastic, we all love to see these bookie bashing bets but what about the losers? You’ll be surprised how easily it is to whittle away winnings without realising. I actually work on a week to week basis in that I try and win every week and will do a figure at the end of the week to run forward to the yearly one and then start afresh on the next Monday.
 
2.         Watch as much racing as you can. It’s not like the (good?) old days when you needed reels of video tape to record races you can access replays of the day’s races in various ways. There’s nothing like watching the race with your own naked eye and making your opinion rather than someone else’s. I personally subscribe to the Racing Post ultimate monthly service which for £34.95 monthly gives me access to all the race replays as well as access to the digital paper the night before which actually breaks down to just over a pound a day which if you’re serious about making money at the game is nothing.
 
3.         Follow Twitter !! If you don’t already sign up and follow as many trainer, jockeys, punters, journalists etc. that are horse racing related. You’ll be surprised how many gems you actually pick up about a horse’s well being or not. Nowadays many trainers use this medium to break news of injuries and have columns with bookmakers. Absorb as much information as you can, you’ll never know when it may come in handy.
 
4.         Become a weather forecaster! The most important factor in finding winners in my opinion is the ground. I don’t believe the old saying that good horses go on any ground. To me that’s nonsense! Most horses have a preference and if you can find that through the form book, or breeding, or trainer stable files then use it to your advantage. With 48 hour declarations here to stay by the looks of things just remember when placing a bet does this horse handle/like the likely ground conditions? One of my most used website's is the Met Office one !!
 
5.         Stable form can be so important. A bit of an obvious one this but if a trainer is on the cold list then I would seriously be shying away from having a go on one of his or hers. On the flip side if a trainer has hit a streak of form then we can bet with much more confidence. Oh and its not just winners we should be looking at as trainers can be in form without hitting the number one spot all the time. I like to look at the Racing Post trainers last 14 days runners and dismiss any big price runners but look closely at their runners under 8/1 and how they have they run. If a trainer has had 0 winners from his last 20 runners but 14 of those were 20/1 or bigger but the 6 that were prominent in the betting were all placed I think you could safely say that they are in good form. 
 
6.         Official Handicap ratings are important. I love analysing each horse’s handicap mark and its fascinating when they find a winning mark that he or she can win off. We may find that they then struggle off of their new marks for a while (or even longer) but when they find themselves slipping back down to their ’winning’ mark and conditions suit then that’s the time to be very interested in them especially if they’ve shown enough in their previous run to give you encouragement.
 
7.         Take the very best price. Again an obvious one but you’ll be surprised how many punters have just the one account who they’re very loyal to. Open as many accounts as possible and when having a bet use an odds comparison site (I personally use Oddschecker although bear in mind that two of the biggies in Ladbrokes and Corals have now left that site). For example constantly taking that extra half a point here and there will make a difference to your overall figure (see pointer 1.) and could make the difference from a winning day or a losing one. Also take advantage of the firms enhanced place terms with many offering these nowadays. I’m a bit torn whether to take 1-4th odds 1-2-3 or 1-5th odds 1-2-3-4 as the difference between 1-4th and 1-5th is surprisingly quite high. If I have the choice I tend to split my bet half and half so covering my stake if the horse does finish in the enhanced extra place spot.
 
8.         Check collateral form. When analysing a race it’s always worth checking how their previous race/s have worked out especially in maidens. You may find a Newmarket maiden for example where five have run since and come nowhere near troubling the judge whilst in contrast at a lesser track say Lingfield may have a maiden where three winners have come out of the race.
 
9.         Become an odds compiler! It’s not for everyone but I’ve been pricing races for 35 years plus now and it gives you a real feel for the race. If you havn’t tried before give it a try (I’ll do a further piece in the future on how to price a race). The benefit of it is that you are basically pitting your expertise against the major bookmaker’s odds compilers who have so many races to price nowadays that if you specialise on a particular race you may just find an edge. As an example If you believe Horse A is a 6/4 chance in your opinion and the bookmakers price him up at 2/1 then if you’re confident in your own ability you’ll be more than happy to take half a point over your price. It’s worth doing if you havn’t done it before.
 
10.       Read as much as you can. Nowadays there’s so many publications that can help punters none more so than the excellent Stable files that can be found in the Racing Post or Weekender. The Attheraces website also has several features on trainer’s thoughts on their horses. Professional punter Mark Holder recently tweeted that he thought that these ‘stable files’ should be dismissed but I totally dis-agree and have backed many a winner on something a trainer has said in such copy about a certain horse’s ability. 
 
As I mentioned at the beginning of this piece, I’ve been a punter for over 40 years (my first ever bet was a £1 win ante-post bet placed by my Mum on my behalf when I was 16 on an unraced Vincent O’Brien 2yo called Try My Best for the 2000 Guineas that I had read about in the Sporting Life at 66/1! And for those of you that don’t know the horse he went unbeaten through his 2yo career and ended up at Newmarket on 2000 Gns day an odds on shot only to trail in last and be retired! I think the anticipation throughout the Winter of him winning is probably the reason why I still love an ante-post bet to this day). 
Everyday I learn something new about this great game and the day I think I know everything is the day I’ll give it all up. 
I hope you enjoyed this feature on better betting and feel free to comment below on anything you agree or disagree about.
The Brigadier
 
 

1705 result: Both scored. Won £87.75
Profit to date £482.72

1704 result: Leicester 2-1. Won £105
Profit to date £394.97

2pts N.Robertson Highest break, most centuries and Trump most 50+ 11/4 skybet