vikki37

Only £20!? Where has Waggy gone?  

1764 result: Brisbane won by 5 wkts. Won £40
Profit to date £1327.27

Allen got a century early to make the match 1-1 and should have had his 2nd when he was on 94-95 and couldn't be bothered to get the extension out. A good game though and perhaps better than Higgins wins because Allen still has a few issues with his new cue. His long potting looked dodgy at times.
Quarter finals start today. Gilbert takes on Kyren Wilson and tonight Murphy takes on Bingham. In the first match, around 1pm, I'll take Wilson on the handicap. Despite taking Gilbert to beat Perry, I was thinking more of a lay for Perry. I think when Gilbert is pushed today that he is going to come up abit short. 
6pts K.Wilson (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 4/6 paddypower
1pt K.Wilson to pot first ball, most centuries and win match 5/1 paddypower

Just a reminder of how my recent descent down the rabbit hole of player stats bets began. Fair to say I went a bit too far down the said orifice and am being a lot more selective now. Put simply, assists, shots on target, headed goals and goals from outside the box bets are generally rank bad value and to be avoided but, having said that, there will occasionally be value to be had. That 8/1 for Kane against City was clearly a great bet win or lose and some of the 3/1 or more for Kane and Son since then have also been solid bets. In most games though, there is unlikely to be any bet worth taking in any of those markets (unless it involves being the bookie and laying or selling).
Let's deal with Kane first; 11 assists in 8 of his 16 league games this season mean he has been hugely profitable to follow this season. Last season though, he only registered 2 assists in 29 games and it was 5 in 27 the season before that. So let's not place too much reliance on his freakish stats for this season. SPIN quote his assist minutes at 20-23 but SX are only going 16-19. That implies that they see him as around a 2/1 shot to assist a goal tonight, maybe slightly more in SX's case. The best price I have seen is 21/10. For me that's no bet. Value if you look just at this season's stats but poor if you consider the bigger picture, and if you take into account the prices we've been seeing lately.
Son, on the other hand, is much more consistent in terms of assists. 5 in 5 of his 16 games this season, 10 in 28 and 6 in 23 if you go back a couple more years. SPIN go 18-21 and SX go 15-18. Let's equate that to around 12/5 for an assist. When I first started looking at prices he was 14/5 with Ladbrokes which definitely caught my eye but was cut to 13/5 by the time I'd done the rounds. Still, for me, a price worth taking, especially with a daily boost applied.
Spurs v Fulham: 25 points on Son to assist a goal at 11/4 with Lads (5/2 or more acceptable).
Just checked before submitting this and he's down to 5/2 now, so best be quick if you are inclined to follow.

Same old Ding losing his bottle once he gets ahead. I was tempted to go with "both to hit 2 centuries" and obviously wish I did now.  Needed Ronnie to get a century in the last frame to hit the 4/1.
Tonight's match should also be a cracker. Allen takes on John Higgins. I have them both as outright picks so I'm not interested in backing the winner (albeit Allen is value) but I will take Allen to hit 2+ centuries. I think Allen is absolutely brilliant amongst the balls, much like Ding and we should see more centuries tonight
2pts M.Allen 2+ centuries 3/1 paddypower

Strange couple of matches yesterday. Despite my centuries bet not coming in, it's worked out quite well with Robbo AND Selby going out. That top half is wide open now.
Today's see's the final matches of the first round as Ronnie takes on Ding and Higgins takes on Allen. Ronnie played Ding 3 times last year and won all 3 of those matches. I really feel like he has abit of a voodoo hex on Ding because even when Ding was playing at his near best, Ronnie beat him on a decider. Whilst Ronnie is not really one to be backed in smaller events, I think one like this and after Selby and Robertson have done out. No Trump. This is his for the losing really.
6pts Ronnie O'Sullivan (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Junhui 4/6
2pts Ronnie to pot the first ball, most centuries and win 4/1 paddypower
0.5pts Ronnie to have a 50+ break in first 3 frames 16/1 paddypower
0.5pts Ronnie to win 6-2 skybet 11/2 skybet

1763 result: Ronnie won 6-5. Won £26.67
Profit to date £1287.27
Ronnie came back from 3-5 to win the last three frames.

Good ting backed into 9/2 fav and wins ...iesha backed into 7 and finishes 3rd ......they are not always going to win but its pretty obvious it's doing a good job of measuring the value and  the rest is luck but I'm looking forward to tackling some big races once things settle.....certainly worth the effort 
Just for the record I used 
30% recent form 
30% form rating 
10 % dist 
10% ground 
20% handicap 
 

Thanks Gooner! I've managed to keep the stakes in check up to now and it seems to be working. 
1763.  £60 Ronnie O'Sullivan @4/9 (v Ding Junhui, Masters Snooker 13.00)
 

Had a go at 415 kemp tomorrow ....used recent form ...form rating ....going ...dist ...
Iesha   should be 8/1 ....can get 16.0 betfair 
The good ting should be 6/1 ...can get 9.0 betfair 
I

1762 result: Heracles won 4-0.  Won £64
Profit to date £1260.55

Prince Khalid has died at the age of 83. Owner of Dancing Brave, Enable, Frankel - 3 horses whose names will live forever- as well as Warning, Kingman, Rainbow Quest etcetera etcetera. Breeder of many of them as well. Owned so many great horses and chose to have them trained and raced mainly in England. In doing so he provided racing fans here with many unforgettable moments.
He will be greatly missed.

A few outsiders 
12.30 wetherby phantomoftheoscar 20/1 placed 3rd
12.30 wetherby early morning dew 25/1 5placed 
13.30 wetherby Henrygondoff 8/1 winner
14.45 wetherby Sakhee city 16/1
15.10 wetherby smiths cross 10/1
12.40 lingfield in the cove 14/1 
13.45 lingfield king robert 10/1
14.50 lingfield verenna storm 18/1 4 places
15.20 lingfield utter pendragon 11/1 placed 3rd
11.50 fairyhouse ardhill 28/1 6places 
12.20 fairyhouse rightback atya 33/1 4 placesplaced 4th
13.55 fairyhouse daphenne moon 20/1 plaed 33/1 2nd bog
15.00 fairyhouse get home 14/1  placed 2nd
15.25  Newcastle jorgie 11/1 
16.00 Newcastle fancy footing 30/1 6places
18.00 Newcastle mollys brother 30/1 5places
18.30 Newcastle tommy g 45/1 4places 
all bets 50p e/w bet365 ???

Rough Tide ........ WON 40/1
think I'll retire now ....... ?

It was up here the night before the match, Charlie
Robertson takes on Bingtao at 1pm today. Selby takes on Maguire. I'm not going to go too mad today, as I have a 4-fold still running on Robbo and Selby. I'm hopeful of that coming in after the two hardest to call matches have come through.
Robertson was actually beaten 6-1 by Bingtao the last time they met, back in 2019. Robertson was well off that day though. He didn't even make one 50+ break. Robertson is coming off of a fantastic win at the UK Championship but has since gone out in the first round of the Grand Prix (Vs Milkins) and the German Masters (Woollaston) Those events are small fry for Robertson though. I fully expect him to turn up today and win. 
Bingtao is actually quite out of form right now. He has 4 of his last 6 since making the Quarter finals of the Northern Ireland Open. That includes going out in round 1 of the UK Championship to Zifan and surprising defeats to Jak Jones and Sam Craigie.
2pts 2 or more centuries in both matches (Robertson Vs Bingtao & Selby Vs Maguire) 3/1 paddypower
2pts Selby, Robertson and R.O'Sullivan all to have the most centuries in their individual matches 5/1 paddypower
 

Murphy wins a tight match. The 7/2 comes in. Nobody won 3 frames in a row. Robertson and Selby in action tomorrow
Masters bets +11pts
Snooker 2021 +17pts

1761 result: Bingham won 6-4. Won £26.67
Profit to date £1196.55
 

Mr Unreliable, Stuart Bingham wins 6-4. Lucky for Bingham, Un-Nooh goes for everything.
Tonight's match could be a real cracker as Mark Williams takes on Shaun Murphy. Murphy has taken the last three head-2-heads between the two but two of those have been deciding frames and both in 2019. Both of these players seem like they're winding down now in their careers and in my eyes, Snooker isn't at the forefront of their minds. I can see a close match. I can see why anybody would take a punt on Williams here but I have a 4-fold with Murphy involved and I'll stick with that.
One bet I do think is worth going for is with the consecutive frame market at bet365. I can't imagine this being anything more one-sided than a 6-3.
2pts Either player to win 3 frames in a row? No! 7/2 bet365
Masters bets +4pts
Snooker 2021 +10pts

Just catching up with this. Ford got to the Semi-finals. Went 2-0 up against Higgins and lost 3-2. Higgins wins the group. That means all 3 winners are outright picks in the final group of 7. With Maflin still to come in the final group. 
CL Snooker +6pts

0.5pts A century break in the first 2 frames 22/1 paddypower
0.5pts each player to hit a 1+ century in the first 4 frames 7/1 paddypower

1760 result: Espanyol won 2-0. Won £20
Profit to date £1169.88

I'm hearing strong rumours that horse racing will be locked down again for three weeks within the next couple of days. I hope that that they're all false but do believe the BHA are meeting with the Government tomorrow.
I don't think it helps that we are bracketed together with football as an elite sport and there seems to be an awful lot of flouting of the law by some of the players. Watching Chorley celebrate in their changing room all singing after the game yesterday didn't look good on the same news bulletin as yet more people are dying and new cases reported. Likewise scenes at the Marine game today outside the ground.
Unfortunately we as an elite sport may well be tarnished by the antics of others. A shame really. Lets hope the rumours are unfounded.

Yeah, Perry's lack of match practice was evident. +2pts
Tomorrow's matches are Bingham against Un-Nooh and Murphy takes on Mark Williams. The later match could be a real 50/50. It will really depend on how much practice the pair have had.
Bingham played Un-Nooh in the Championship League and won 3-0 in that match. Bingham hit a 147 and has hit five centuries in his 12 matches. Bingham was in alot of deciding frame matches in Group 1 and then in Group 2 he came last. Only beating Selt. Once again though, he had many matches that were quite tight. Un-Nooh hit 4 centuries in 6 matches. If you take out all the gimmicky tournaments then we'd see Bingham beat Un-Nooh 4-3 at the 2018 English Open and 4-2 at the 2014 Welsh Open. 
I think Bingham comes through this 6-3 or 6-4. I couldn't decide between the over 9.5 frames in this match or Bingham to win on the -1.5 handicap. In my mind, I think Bingham wins this and at similar odds, I think it's more likely he win without needing a deciding frame than he is on getting 4 frames.
3pts S. Bingham (-1.5 frames) to beat T. Un-Nooh 5/6 bet365 
2pts Bingham, Murphy, Robertson & Selby all to win 4/1 paddypower
Masters bets +2.5pts
Snooker 2021 +8.5pts

1759 result: Barnsley won 2-0. Won £50
Profit to date £1149.88

Wilson covers the handicap but Gary potted the 1st ball for a small 0.5pt profit. A hard one to call tonight as Joe Perry takes on Dave Gilbert. Both players are pretty much out-of-form but I will side with Gilbert tonight. Perry comes into this at the last minute after taking Judd Trumps spot. Gilbert has been practicing alot where as Perry openly admits that he only started practicing on Wednesday. I think Gilbert is a better player but his form has let him down. I'm hoping tonight that the good fortune of playing Perry instead of Trump will energize him and more importantly, get him focused.
2.75pts D. Gilbert to beat J. Perry 8/11 bet365