KikoCy

CSKA win @ 3.75 is too high in my opinion, throwing some money at that.
Value in Valencia - Juve X @ 3.50 too. BTTS probably safer.

CSKA win @ 3.75 is too high in my opinion, throwing some money at that.
Value in Valencia - Juve X @ 3.50 too. BTTS probably safer.

Shakhtar to beat Hoffenheim at 2.00 bet365
Shaktar are starting their consecutive journey in CL. The Ukrainians were able to get 3 home wins last year in their group and even achieved a prestigious win against Man City (even though the English team played with their reserves). This year the aim will be the same to get out of the group. This game is must win. Shakhtar don't have real competition in the local league and have 5 consecutive wins in the league. From the other side, Hoffenheim started unconvincing with 2 losses from 3 games in Bundesliga. In addition, the Germans have problems with injured and doubtful players. The total number reaches 10 players which most certainly will not play with Kevin Vogt, Lukas Rupp, Amiri, Denis Geiger and others. Hoffenheim are new to CL with last year playing in EL and finishing last in their group. Based on everything written, I see value in home win. GL


 

Champions League is back baby!
Liverpool - PSG
I have to take Liverpool given their confidence, attractive football and playing at Anfield. Don't watch too much of PSG but from what I can tell, they haven't really hit top form yet under Tuchel despite getting the points.
Liverpool & BTTS @ 3.25
 
Inter - Spurs
No Lloris and Alli for Spurs. Over @ 2.5 looks tasty at 2.10. I wonder why. BTTS @ 1.85 too.
BTTS @ 1.85
 
Monaco - Atleti
I am backing Atletico to win the whole thing and this to be another 0-1 standard win for Simeone's men.
Atletico win & U2.5 @ 3.60
 
Treble @ 21.65

I can only offer some historical perspective. Round 1 is the best of the six rounds for draws by big dogs. For away dogs of up to 5.99, the record of the dogs from 2007 to the present is 6-15-18. For home dogs of up to 5.99, the record is 1-7-13.
I'm going to hazard a guess that the reason for all the dropped points by favorites is more on the oddsmakers than on the sides. Meaning, in group play, in the midst of young seasons, where the participants are there because of what they did last season (or in qualifying)...and people are just guessing who is better, who is more motivated, etc. My entire theory is based on the notion that the odds already have everything current baked into them...not that the oddsmakers are always 'right,' but that the market moves match odds similarly based on injuries, weather, h2h, etc. Anyway, the draws are very marked in this case; the better sides are the better sides, and since this is CL group play where the object is to get three points (and there's no second leg to think about), sides don't press to win 4-0 and 'put the tie away'...the matches tend to be close, so dropped points usually means draws and not losses. Except for matches involving Arsenal. Kidding!
Today (as the odds currently stand) that's Brugge, Monaco, Red Star, Loko Moscow.
Tomorrow: Hoffenheim, Valencia, YB
Seven matches, odds around 3.80. If you played them all, you'd need two draws to show a profit. Last year there were three draws in five; the previous year five draws in eight. The year before that it was one draw in seven (with three outright wins by dogs...one of the years when it didn't work, at all).
If you only take two or three draws, take the ones you least expect to happen (or take the draws in the matches where there's a public favorite).
My best advice, though, is if you think a favorite's odds are too low, and you're considering taking the dog double chance at 1.80, take the draw instead at 3.80. You'll kick yourself if the dog wins it outright, but as you can see that doesn't happen that often. And there's no money long-term in taking anything at 1.80.

In a very good game, the two teams score at will at the games of the championship. I expect a game open with many goals and phases, in front of the two goalspot
LIVERPOOL FC vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.45
Without a win, Schalke in the German league has only defeated so far in three games, Porto is an experienced team, we will support the best team, get the victory
FC SCHALKE 04 vs FC PORTO @@ FC PORTO, odds 2.80
Both teams are looking for a positive result to get over them as they come from defeats that have thrown them on the morale. We are essentially expecting their reaction and at least betting on scoring once in the game
INTER MILANO vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

Alright then..

Crvena zvezda - Napoli

So Red Star Belgrade,Rotern Stern or Stella Rossa di Belgrado is back where it`s belong - in top European competition.
It's little strange that journey took so long,but there you go. Better late than ever i guess.

In the first match of the group stage we will face Napoli, runners-up of the two consecutive seasons in Serie A.  A very strong team that you know quite a lot about so I will not waste my time writing too much about them.

Match will be played in amazing atmosphere.
Tickets are sold out for all three home matches so the Rajko Mitic Stadium will be packed with fans. The match will be attended by members of the Zvezda`s golden generation who won the Champions Cup in 1991 such as Dejan Savicevic,Robert Prosinecki, Sinisa Mihajlovic, Vladimir Jugovic,Darko Pancev etc. So it`s going to be quite a spectacle.

The team is looking good,still without a defeat in season. In play-off round of qualifications we knocked-out Salzburg with 2-2 aggregate result on aways goals with both of my picks (Crvena zvezda AH2 +1  and CZ to qualify) winners.
It is very important to mention that we finally have all players available. Lorenzo Ebicillio is back from injury,so is Jonathan Cafu who we signed from Bordeaux.

On the last day of transfer window we lost Nemanja Radonjic who went  to Olimpique Marseille, but we bought three very good players - Causic, Boakye and Marin (former German internarional and former Chelsea player). All three of them are expected to start tomorrow. In particular, the return of Boakye is a significant reinforcement because Zvezda has stuggled a bit upfront.

I saw Napoli in couple of occasions in this season. Even though they didn't change their squad at all i feel that they are in some kind of transition under new coach,legendary Carlo Ancelotti,trying to adopt to his ideas and football philosophy.
Their backline look a little bit shaky and in this i see some chance for us to keep a tie tight and maybe even avoid a defeat,altough Napoli is stronger side with more quality.

Initially i was going for AH1 (+2/+1,5) because i think this will be much closer than odds suggest,but odds has dropped significantly so i`ll try with more risky pick.
Crvena zvezda to score over 0,5 team goals @1,85 

With Boakye,Marin,Ben&co. i think we have enough firepower to score at least one goal.
GL!
 

Champions League is back baby!
Liverpool - PSG
I have to take Liverpool given their confidence, attractive football and playing at Anfield. Don't watch too much of PSG but from what I can tell, they haven't really hit top form yet under Tuchel despite getting the points.
Liverpool & BTTS @ 3.25
 
Inter - Spurs
No Lloris and Alli for Spurs. Over @ 2.5 looks tasty at 2.10. I wonder why. BTTS @ 1.85 too.
BTTS @ 1.85
 
Monaco - Atleti
I am backing Atletico to win the whole thing and this to be another 0-1 standard win for Simeone's men.
Atletico win & U2.5 @ 3.60
 
Treble @ 21.65

Tottenham vs Liverpool 2-0FT
Bournemouth vs Leicester 1-1 FT
Chelsea vs Cardiff 3-1 FT
Huddersfield vs C.Palace 0-1 FT
ManCity vs Fulham 4-0 FT
Newcastle vs Arsenal 0-2 FT
Watford vs Man U 2-1 FT

Chelsea vs Cardiff
OK, so I'm going to cut to the chase and say that, as a Cardiff fan, I'm not looking forward to this game. An away trip to Stamford Bridge is daunting at the best of times but this 3pm kick-off on Saturday comes at a time when the Blues are defying my own expectations under Maurizio Sarri and sweeping all opposition in front of them to one side.
Chelsea have started their first campaign under the former Napoli boss in emphatic fashion. 4 wins from their first 4 Premier League matches with 10 goals scored during those matches has seen them lead the top flight pack with Liverpool and set tongues wagging about whether they are potential title challengers.
Clean sheets have been kept against Huddersfield and Bournemouth but the fact that Arsenal and Newcastle both found a way through the Chelsea back-line suggests there are areas of weakness that can be exploited. The only problem is that the Chelsea midfield is so good with Willian, Pedro, Hazard, Jorginho, and Kante all providing resilient performances in both the attacking and defensive phases of play.
Cardiff fans are just enjoying the Premier League experience. It was an underwhelming start away to Bournemouth but nothing we weren't prepared for. Performances since have inspired confidence. The most recent game against Arsenal might have ended in defeat but it was a performance that would have secured a win against a lot of other sides in this division.
It appears that Neil Warnock has solved the striker issue. Kenneth Zohore has divided fan opinions with some, including myself, claiming he could be doing more with others claiming he's starved of service. Danny Ward has looked far hungrier and competent in front of goal so deserves his chance.
I'm expecting Warnock to line up with a 4-5-1 or even a 5-4-1 to counter Chelsea's attacking threats so the best we can hope for is a draw. I don't see it happening though. Chelsea will be top four come the end of the season and they're going to get the win here. If we play well we can limit the damage to a one goal loss but I think realistically that Chelsea will come away with a 3-0 or 3-1 win.
Chelsea HT/FT @ 1.70 with Coral
Chelsea to Win & Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 1.65 with Betway
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, and @AndreBR, what bets have you guys got lined up this week? I was going to preview Tottenham versus Liverpool first but not only am I really uncertain about the outcome but enough of you will no doubt do your own previews so thought I'd cover the less high profile games. 

I am liking Palace to win at home @ 1.95 and Watford - Spurs BTTS @ 1.80.
Away this weekend so not a lot of reasoning, sorry.

Excuse the lack of write-ups, it's been a manic week on my end. Incoming research with some potential value picks as I have yet to throw any money on them yet.
Serbia - Switzerland
I find value in Switzerland win simply due to their organization and resistance to conceding goals.
fivethirtyeight have Switzerland at 42% chance of winning and the odds of 3.1 indicate value in backing Switzerland. Of course, this is football and the stats don't always explain the performances (Croatia, Iceland and many more 'upsets'). This is simply sniping for value.
I reckon this game can go either way and it will be a midfield battle. Serbia's midfield edges Switzerland's, personally, and it would be interesting to see how they match up.
Behrami (MOTM for Switzerland vs Brazil) might be out due to a knock vs Brazil. Zakaria is a capable player of filling that role but starting Behrami is a no-brainer. Should he get a yellow card and the Swiss pick up a result here, he will be available for the second round.
Lots of value in the cards here. I personally took Shaqiri @ 3.4 and Kolarov @ 3.6 to be carded any time. Shaqiri can be petulant and of course, we have the historical tension between both teams. Furthermore, both teams attack predominantly on the right (42% for Switzerland vs Brazil) as Xherdan is their talisman and playmaker.
Tadic vs Rodriguez will be a good battle too but unfortunately Tadic has been erratic over the past two seasons. He came into form during the end of the season and I can see him linking up with SMS in midfield nicely. He also is an excellent distributor of the ball into the box but alas, Mitrovic needs to find his scoring boots again.
Lichsteiner made me some money vs Brazil but I think he might be a bit more careful here.
Matic, Dzemaili and Xhaka also candidates to get booked. Dzemaili had the 'destroyer' role vs Brazil, looking to disrupt passing lanes and get into the players. I can see him getting carded again should he be trusted with this role again. Xhaka has made me a decent penny in EPL, with his yellow cards and another booking tonight would not surprise me, @ 2.6 anytime card.
The U2.5 is 1.53 with some of my mates calling it a 'banker' and I would agree. Both teams have solid defenses and poor attacking strengths. I would prefer waiting for the first goal and then playing the U2.5, provided it comes in the first half which is also unlikely.
The average height of the Serbs could very well see them score from a set piece and negate Switzerland.
I like the look of HT X @ 1.83 and @betcatalog's footballing nous speaks for itself; tailing this.
This game can go either way and I will be scrutinizing it mainly due to the score predictor game I am playing where I am currently top 500 in the world and it's games like these that separate the boys from men.
 
Brazil - Costa Rica
Not a lot of value in this game for me so this write up will be short.
I am secretly hoping Neymar doesn't play as predicted due to injury, allowing Coutinho to slot into his role on LW where he thrives for me. He can draw quite a few fouls here and Gamboa and Acosta will have a handful to deal with. Acosta anytime booking @ 2.9 is decent. Looking at the odds, Watson @ 1.8 to be booked is one of the lowest prices I've come across. Finally, Casemiro to be booked is 2.5. This came through last game and he might pick up a card to miss the final game as Brazil should wrap this up in a tidy fashion. Casemiro also made me a lot of money in CL with his tendency to pick up cards but this would depend on Costa Rica possession and as such I may abstain from this.
For me, Brazil are winning this 2-0 with Neymar and perhaps more without him. Their sheer reliance on him is annoying as it's one dimensional and they don't move the ball quick enough. Belgium have the same problem with Hazard. 
No value in EH markets, HT markets or even the over/under as anything could happen but I see Costa Rica parking the bus and Brazil killing off the game between 45-60th minute.
 
 
 

Excuse the lack of write-ups, it's been a manic week on my end. Incoming research with some potential value picks as I have yet to throw any money on them yet.
Serbia - Switzerland
I find value in Switzerland win simply due to their organization and resistance to conceding goals.
fivethirtyeight have Switzerland at 42% chance of winning and the odds of 3.1 indicate value in backing Switzerland. Of course, this is football and the stats don't always explain the performances (Croatia, Iceland and many more 'upsets'). This is simply sniping for value.
I reckon this game can go either way and it will be a midfield battle. Serbia's midfield edges Switzerland's, personally, and it would be interesting to see how they match up.
Behrami (MOTM for Switzerland vs Brazil) might be out due to a knock vs Brazil. Zakaria is a capable player of filling that role but starting Behrami is a no-brainer. Should he get a yellow card and the Swiss pick up a result here, he will be available for the second round.
Lots of value in the cards here. I personally took Shaqiri @ 3.4 and Kolarov @ 3.6 to be carded any time. Shaqiri can be petulant and of course, we have the historical tension between both teams. Furthermore, both teams attack predominantly on the right (42% for Switzerland vs Brazil) as Xherdan is their talisman and playmaker.
Tadic vs Rodriguez will be a good battle too but unfortunately Tadic has been erratic over the past two seasons. He came into form during the end of the season and I can see him linking up with SMS in midfield nicely. He also is an excellent distributor of the ball into the box but alas, Mitrovic needs to find his scoring boots again.
Lichsteiner made me some money vs Brazil but I think he might be a bit more careful here.
Matic, Dzemaili and Xhaka also candidates to get booked. Dzemaili had the 'destroyer' role vs Brazil, looking to disrupt passing lanes and get into the players. I can see him getting carded again should he be trusted with this role again. Xhaka has made me a decent penny in EPL, with his yellow cards and another booking tonight would not surprise me, @ 2.6 anytime card.
The U2.5 is 1.53 with some of my mates calling it a 'banker' and I would agree. Both teams have solid defenses and poor attacking strengths. I would prefer waiting for the first goal and then playing the U2.5, provided it comes in the first half which is also unlikely.
The average height of the Serbs could very well see them score from a set piece and negate Switzerland.
I like the look of HT X @ 1.83 and @betcatalog's footballing nous speaks for itself; tailing this.
This game can go either way and I will be scrutinizing it mainly due to the score predictor game I am playing where I am currently top 500 in the world and it's games like these that separate the boys from men.
 
Brazil - Costa Rica
Not a lot of value in this game for me so this write up will be short.
I am secretly hoping Neymar doesn't play as predicted due to injury, allowing Coutinho to slot into his role on LW where he thrives for me. He can draw quite a few fouls here and Gamboa and Acosta will have a handful to deal with. Acosta anytime booking @ 2.9 is decent. Looking at the odds, Watson @ 1.8 to be booked is one of the lowest prices I've come across. Finally, Casemiro to be booked is 2.5. This came through last game and he might pick up a card to miss the final game as Brazil should wrap this up in a tidy fashion. Casemiro also made me a lot of money in CL with his tendency to pick up cards but this would depend on Costa Rica possession and as such I may abstain from this.
For me, Brazil are winning this 2-0 with Neymar and perhaps more without him. Their sheer reliance on him is annoying as it's one dimensional and they don't move the ball quick enough. Belgium have the same problem with Hazard. 
No value in EH markets, HT markets or even the over/under as anything could happen but I see Costa Rica parking the bus and Brazil killing off the game between 45-60th minute.
 
 
 

Excuse the lack of write-ups, it's been a manic week on my end. Incoming research with some potential value picks as I have yet to throw any money on them yet.
Serbia - Switzerland
I find value in Switzerland win simply due to their organization and resistance to conceding goals.
fivethirtyeight have Switzerland at 42% chance of winning and the odds of 3.1 indicate value in backing Switzerland. Of course, this is football and the stats don't always explain the performances (Croatia, Iceland and many more 'upsets'). This is simply sniping for value.
I reckon this game can go either way and it will be a midfield battle. Serbia's midfield edges Switzerland's, personally, and it would be interesting to see how they match up.
Behrami (MOTM for Switzerland vs Brazil) might be out due to a knock vs Brazil. Zakaria is a capable player of filling that role but starting Behrami is a no-brainer. Should he get a yellow card and the Swiss pick up a result here, he will be available for the second round.
Lots of value in the cards here. I personally took Shaqiri @ 3.4 and Kolarov @ 3.6 to be carded any time. Shaqiri can be petulant and of course, we have the historical tension between both teams. Furthermore, both teams attack predominantly on the right (42% for Switzerland vs Brazil) as Xherdan is their talisman and playmaker.
Tadic vs Rodriguez will be a good battle too but unfortunately Tadic has been erratic over the past two seasons. He came into form during the end of the season and I can see him linking up with SMS in midfield nicely. He also is an excellent distributor of the ball into the box but alas, Mitrovic needs to find his scoring boots again.
Lichsteiner made me some money vs Brazil but I think he might be a bit more careful here.
Matic, Dzemaili and Xhaka also candidates to get booked. Dzemaili had the 'destroyer' role vs Brazil, looking to disrupt passing lanes and get into the players. I can see him getting carded again should he be trusted with this role again. Xhaka has made me a decent penny in EPL, with his yellow cards and another booking tonight would not surprise me, @ 2.6 anytime card.
The U2.5 is 1.53 with some of my mates calling it a 'banker' and I would agree. Both teams have solid defenses and poor attacking strengths. I would prefer waiting for the first goal and then playing the U2.5, provided it comes in the first half which is also unlikely.
The average height of the Serbs could very well see them score from a set piece and negate Switzerland.
I like the look of HT X @ 1.83 and @betcatalog's footballing nous speaks for itself; tailing this.
This game can go either way and I will be scrutinizing it mainly due to the score predictor game I am playing where I am currently top 500 in the world and it's games like these that separate the boys from men.
 
Brazil - Costa Rica
Not a lot of value in this game for me so this write up will be short.
I am secretly hoping Neymar doesn't play as predicted due to injury, allowing Coutinho to slot into his role on LW where he thrives for me. He can draw quite a few fouls here and Gamboa and Acosta will have a handful to deal with. Acosta anytime booking @ 2.9 is decent. Looking at the odds, Watson @ 1.8 to be booked is one of the lowest prices I've come across. Finally, Casemiro to be booked is 2.5. This came through last game and he might pick up a card to miss the final game as Brazil should wrap this up in a tidy fashion. Casemiro also made me a lot of money in CL with his tendency to pick up cards but this would depend on Costa Rica possession and as such I may abstain from this.
For me, Brazil are winning this 2-0 with Neymar and perhaps more without him. Their sheer reliance on him is annoying as it's one dimensional and they don't move the ball quick enough. Belgium have the same problem with Hazard. 
No value in EH markets, HT markets or even the over/under as anything could happen but I see Costa Rica parking the bus and Brazil killing off the game between 45-60th minute.
 
 
 

Nigeria vs Iceland
Well, this has suddenly become a very interesting group after the first round of games. Nigeria come into this game against Iceland at 4pm BST on Friday afternoon at the Volgograd Arena in Volgograd needing to avoid defeat to keep their realistic hopes of qualification for the last 16 alive.
Nigeria fell severely short of expectations in their opening game against Croatia as they suffered a 2-0 loss in a very poor game in terms of quality. The Super Eagles had been praised for their attacking threat coming into this tournament but it was effectively nullified by a Croat side that showed every bit of their experience to get the win and the clean sheet.
Iceland entered World Cup folklore with the 1-1 draw against Argentina in their opening game. Yes, Heimir Hallgrimsson's team only had 22% possession and were fortunate that Lionel Messi missed a penalty but it was a draw their efforts and defensive organisation deserved. It now means that a win here could potentially put them on the brink of a place in the last 16.
This will be a fascinating game. Iceland will undoubtedly sit back and look to hit Nigeria on the counter. It's a tactic that has seen them get this far. Nigeria will not have the same attacking threat as Argentina so Iceland can be quietly confident that they can sneak the win here by being patient.
I wasn't sure Iceland's defensive strategy would cope against Argentina and Croatia but I did feel they could win against Nigeria. I think Nigeria lack the discipline and cutting edge needed to get out of this group. Self control, discipline, and patience is where this game will be won and lost. My gut instinct was tempted to back a draw but I actually think Iceland could get the win here because they are the better team unit.
Iceland to win @ 2.83 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.69 with Blacktype

Very happy! Congrats on your predictions, you were spot-on with your bets on this game!
It was nice to finally see a cohesive midfield on our team and I personally am glad to see Sergej Milinković-Savić put a solid performance and work well with Matić and Milivojević, being a very late addition to this squad (due to the issues with the former manager, unfortunately). It's been a long time since we've had a solid midfield lineup, and our defense seems solid as well, though not ideal. Overall, people here are very happy with our first performance, though most of us have been preparing for a much worse outcome, so there's also that. The biggest problem in my opinion (which I mentioned in my first post) still remains an issue, however - our striker isn't the brightest fish in the sea, and he needs plenty of chances to make one count, and there won't be plenty versus the much tougher Brazil and Swiss squads. For this reason, one of the guys behind him will need to step up and shine in those two games if we're to hope to get something out of them. Some of them definitely have the potential to do so, and it will definitely be interesting to see if they will.
However, that draw between Brazil and the Switzerland was a rain on our parade.
It all comes down to the Friday clash with Switzerland now which, from what we've seen so far, could be anyone's game, and will likely be a tight contest with only a few opportunities to make a difference.
I am undecided on what to bet on at the moment. However, for those interested in doing so, it is worth noting that this will be an emotional match for both sides. This is because of the well-known Kosovo dispute. As some of you may have noticed, plenty of players on the Swiss team were born in, or originate from Kosovo (and some from Albania), and will surely be extra motivated for this game. On the other hand, Kosovo is, obviously, a very emotional topic for the Serbs as well, so any good result in clashes versus any team related to Albania or Kosovo always counts as a double.
I am certain that this will be almost as big motivator for both sides as points and the prospects of advancing to the next round for those who snatch a win. The atmosphere in the stands could likely be heated and not short of provocation from both sides. We are likely to see plenty of Kosovo and some greater Albania flags among the Swiss fans (as was the case in quite a few events in the past, probably the most famous one being the drone incident in the Euro 2016 qualifiers). Serbs, on the other hand, will likely respond with some well-known chants, backed by the local Russian fans with whom we have brotherly relations.
Our first-choice striker Aleksandar Mitrović has a reputation for being hot-headed and being prone to doing something stupid out of nowhere, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he allows some attempts at provocation to get to his head. I haven't checked the odds yet, but having a small stake on a red card in this game might be a worthwhile consideration, with him being the first choice.
Other than that, I'll let the things settle some more before deciding on any serious bets on this game. I'm inclined towards a low-scoring game, but that could be risky if our team decides to risk and go all in instead of hoping for a result from a game vs Brazil, which I'm sure will try to step up their game in the next two fixtures. So, perhaps a goalless first half instead.
I'll post my picks at a later date, should I find anything worthwhile.

i would like to thank our foreign contributors for their insight and in depth analysis:
@DrO  @Pep004 @AlexD @Marek76 @betcatalog
apologies if I've missed anyone

Hi all, as you can imagine I haven't had a lot of time to post write ups.
For Argentina - Croatia, bets that stand out to me:
Ever Banega anytime card @ 2.4
HT X @ 1.95
Croatia +1 @ 1.727
Croatia X @ 3
BTTS is also promising @ 2.00
I co-sign the excellent, detailed analysis above.
 

Argentina vs Croatia
I, personally, am super excited for this one!
This is, in my opinion, one of the three biggest fixtures in this round of the group stages, the other two being Serbia vs Switzerland (bias or not, this one will be bloody!) and Colombia vs Poland (because one of the two will be packing their bags early after this one).
I'll start off by saying that this game is really hard to predict, as I believe we haven't seen the true potential of neither of the teams involved in their opening fixtures. Argentina was held to a draw by the brave Iceland team, who have once again demonstrated how disciplined and hard working they are able to be, especially in the games against huge favorites. On the other hand while the Argentinian team didn't necessarily play that bad, I felt like some of the players were seriously hindering the play - rare, well-built plays that had the potential to throw off the opposition's defense and create a chance for a goal were frequently sabotaged by the moments of individual silliness, causing further frustration for the Argentinians as the game progressed. Ever Banega was leading the pack in this, and I don't know whether it was lack of flair or play vision or just plain frustration caused by the disciplined Iceland players, but in my opinion, his playtime should be seriously reconsidered after that performance, as now Argentina do not have the luxury to waste goal opportunities. I also wonder why Paulo Dybala wasn't given a chance to play in place of (or as a substitute for) Mazza, but then I've heard that there's some disagreements with Messi (which I am yet to confirm to be true). If this rumor turns out to be true, it could mean that the atmosphere in the Argentinian team is not ideal, and that could cause problems later on, especially if the team starts underperforming. Could Argentina turn out to be a loose cannon?
It should be noted that disciplined defensive teams like Iceland and Iran are a nightmare to play against and demand an entirely different approach to the game for the favorites, as was demonstrated by Argentina, and Spain last night (and will be by Portugal next week, but that's another topic). If they're not opened up early, the attackers will get more and more frustrated causing their chances of snatching a win to drop as the game progresses. The game vs Iceland may turn out to be the hardest pill to swallow for the Argentinians, or any other team in Group D for that matter, and they may end up being happy they got to do so early on.
Speaking of loose cannons, let's move on to Croatia, a team of amazing individual quality with one serious drawback - they're a team from the Balkans. Trust me, as a person from another Balkan nation, every single team from this region suffers from the same illness, which is oscillatory mental approach to the games by the players. You just never know if and when a fight between some of the players on the team may break out, leading to forming of the several groups in the national team, which shows on the pitch and hurts their play. Or, the team may win and decide to spend the night in a club getting drunk and partying with escorts. Another recognizable trait for this region is that teams tend to get extra motivated and perform great in big games where they're labeled as the underdogs or even given no chance, while they can every now and then get complacent against weaker opposition, expecting that they'll win just by showing up and dropping points as a consequence. This means that the form (perhaps consistency is a more appropriate term) of the teams may be very unpredictable. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Croatia was to beat Argentina with relative ease, only to lose to Iceland (or Nigeria, but this didn't happen) the next day. On a good day, they're more than capable to cause all sorts of upsets vs any given opposition. This is why people from the Balkans believe that their team needs a safety factor of 2.0 when it comes to the quality of their team, if they're to expect a result with confidence.
Nigeria was a team which I almost labeled as the potential dark horses in my books based on their squad and form before the World Cup, but seeing them play against Serbia (who, at the time, just appointed an inexperienced coach and were struggling with choice of a formation and lineup from game to game) gave me an insight in what was likely to happen in their WC campaign, and was later confirmed in their game against Croatia - they're uninspired and not very creative, and I see them struggling to do well in this group. Actually, Nigeria finishing with 0 points in this group wouldn't surprise me at all, unless something changes drastically in their subsequent games. One drawback from this is that we cannot be certain how strong and cohesive Croatia is in this tournament yet - a similar case to Argentina, but for different reasons.
As I've already mentioned, Iceland and Nigeria aren't really representative measurements of what Argentina and Croatia are able to do. However, I do believe that the current prices given by most of the bookies favor the Argentinians too much over Croatia with no arguments to back that up yet. I'd be surprised if Croatia didn't put in a good effort, just like they tend to usually do against the biggest teams.
I see both teams scoring in this game. The hardest battle will be fought in the midfield and will be exciting to follow, but both sides have players who are more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance, which in these games is often enough to lead to a goal. I expect Croatia to be stronger on the defensive end, and Argentina up front. Argentina will be looking for a win, which would allow them to enter their final game vs Nigeria more relaxed and play their game to the fullest, while Croatia will be satisfied even with a draw, but do not be fooled for a second to think that they'll settle for it if they're given a chance to grab all three points. Plus, they have played Iceland twice in their qualifying group and are, by now, most certainly aware of how tricky that game could be if they end up needing to fight for their playoff spot in their final game.
I think I'll stay away from betting on a winner on this game, but if I had to, I would take the value in odds on Croatia DNB or double chance.
BTTS @ 2.0 sounds too good not to take.
To make it an even more interesting game to watch, I'm considering HT CS 0:0 and BTTS in the 2nd half

Agree with Pep.
Really fancy Croatia here especially given the Argies result. Wouldn't surprise me if they win the group.
I just don't see it with Nigeria. Nothing to suggest they will get more than a draw here if lucky. Croatia can take control of the group with a win and fancy them to.
Took Croatia with a boost of WilliamHill @1.75.

Croatia -0.5 @1,80
We were able to see that there will be no easy match. Especially in the first round, where especially those well-disciplined teams, with defensive approaches, are capable of surprising much much better opponents. After all, it is only 90 minutes and everything can happen. Here, two very talented squads will meet. Nigeria has some very interesting individuals, some very physical players, capable also of running a lot, but on the other side, we have Croatia with some extremely experienced players, used to play Champions league finals almost every year and tactical advantage is the one, I think will decide the winner on this match. Comparing player to player, Croatia is without a doubt a better side, but Iran, Australia, Iceland have already shown that everything is possible. I think that in overall, odds on Croatia are too high and very valuable. I would set Croatia max at 1,60 as in my eyes they are right behind all those top favorized countries (Brazil, Germany, France, Spain). With Modrić, Rakitić, Kovačić, Badelj, etc... their midfield will be amongst the best on this tournament, they have experienced defensive line and some very good players higher on the pitch (especially Perišić). I expect, that they will get the job done here and start the World Cup with three points. As said at the start of the World Cup, I quietly expect Croatians in the first place in this group. 

Argentina vs Croatia
One of the stand-out games in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup comes this Thursday evening at 7pm BST from Nizhny Novgorod Stadium in Nizhny Novgorod when Argentina play Croatia. The game now has an extra bit of spice after Jorge Sampaoli's faltered unexpectedly against Iceland in their opening match.
I had tipped Argentina to struggle at this World Cup. I still thought they would sneak a win against Iceland though. It appears they now have an over-reliance on Lionel Messi and that's disconcerting. Unless he has a magic moment then I'm not sure where the goals will come from because the current tactics are being too easily stifled.
Croatia are a step up from Iceland. Zlatko Dalic's side made a business-like start to their tournament with a 2-0 win over Nigeria. However, that might suit Argentina more. Croatia will certainly be more confident about taking the game to Argentina but that might well hinder them at the same time.
The more I think about this game, the more I feel that both sides would take a draw. Argentina will fancy their chances against Nigeria in their last game. A draw here and win there would give them 5 points and that should be enough to qualify. Is that Sampaoli's mentality though? Or will he demand a win here?
Funnily enough, even though Croatia won their first game and are in the superior position it might be the Croats that take the initiative. They know how hard Iceland are from their qualification group. That said, they did beat Iceland 2-0 at home and only lost 1-0 to a 90th minute goal in the away match. So maybe they will fancy their chances. Dalic will certainly be keen to get the job done as soon as possible though.
I think on the face of it that a draw is the most likely outcome here. Argentina are missing something. I'm not sure what it is but it's just not clicking. Maybe it'll happen at the right time. They could amble through the group stages then get progressively better as the tournament goes on. I'm not seeing anything right now that has me thinking they have what it takes to go further than the 2nd Round and they'll be lucky to reach that stage. They need Messi to pull them through but even he looks short of something special.
It's a tough game to call. Croatia remain hard to judge based on their game with Nigeria. It was a typical inconsistent display by the Super Eagles. Argentina might well feel like a wounded animal. I still think they have talented attacking players and a quality head coach. It has to click at some point, surely? Will it click on Thursday though? I just think Croatia have the quality to suffocate them. I'm keen to see how much influence Ivan Rakitic will have over how Croatia play against Messi. Being a player that plays close to Messi at club level, is there a better scout and informant to have?
BTTS @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes
Draw @ 3.45 with Unibet

Denmark vs Australia
I was somewhat disappointed with the way Denmark performed in their opener game, but then again, first round matches tend to be more rigid and a lot of teams are inclined to play play it safe, so to speak. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game, and lived up to their reputation of being a tough nut to crack on most days. It's their attack that I expected to perform better and show more creativity in the final third of the pitch. I believe that this could change on Thursday, as the team should now be past the anxiety surrounding their first World Cup game, and with three points in the bag, they should be more relaxed and will be looking to secure their spot in the playoffs instead of looking for their ticket in the final game vs France.
On the other hand, Australia did better than most have expected in their game vs France, but in my opinion it is more thanks to the uninspired performance by the French than their own. They've been known to put on a good fight and show even when they've been eliminated in the group stage, so they'll certainly be no pushovers. That being said, Aussies tend to be very physical and not afraid of full-contact play in pretty much any sport, and football is no exception, even if they team may be lacking quality compared to some. This means that they're more than capable of frustrating the opposition with strong marking and aerial duels, and they've demonstrated that vs France who, for some reason, chose to play more long passes than I would've expected.
In the end, I think that Denmark should have enough quality in the back to prevent any upsets from the Aussie team, and, depending on how inspired Eriksen & Co. will be up front with their ball movement and distribution, they should be able to bag 2 or 3, and secure their playoff spot, should there not be any upsets in the other game of Group C.
Unfortunately, it seems that I'll be forced to bet locally for the remainder of the World Cup, so posting odds will be of little use here.
That being said, I'm inclined towards Denmark to win and total goals scored between 2 and 4.
France vs Peru
France had an uninspired performance vs Australia in their first game, which led to a very frustrating game for them, and they'll be happy with their three points as they could've easily been held to a draw by the Aussies. If they intend to live up to their expectations from this cup, as well as expectations of their fans, they'll need to step it up in their subsequent games. On the other hand, France is often one of those teams who build their form as the tournaments progress, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform much better in their second game of the World Cup, even though Peru should be a much tougher opposition on paper, and in their first game they've definitely shown that there is quality in their squad.
On the other hand, for the majority of the match, Peru vs Denmark was anyone's game, and Peru will be kicking themselves over that missed penalty, but also over not starting their aging legend Paolo Guerrero, who demonstrated that he still has a lot to offer to his national team even after a lengthy suspension. In my opinion, Peru put on a solid game against Denmark, and had shown that their reputation of being a hard team to score against is well-founded. After that loss, however, they've got nothing to lose as the defeat against France will send them packing their bags early.
If Peru changes their lineup somewhat and starts Guerrero, and if France ups their game after managing to snatch the important three points off their nervous first game performance, both of which I expect to happen, we should have an exciting game to watch. Peru will be looking to survive in this tournament, and France will be looking to secure another 3 points. I think that France will be able to put on a good display and secure their playoff spot, allowing them to rest some players in the third game, possibly even do some calculations (both of which wouldn't be the first time we see them do) because winners of the Group D are all but unknown after Argentina failed to secure three points vs Iceland.
This win won't come without a fight, however.
France to win and BTTS
Just for fun - a small-stake bet on CS France - Peru 2:1.

It's the Portugal way.
Play badly against teams worse than them and absorb their attack. Play well against equal/better teams and counter really well.
Guedes needs to be benched for Andre Silva I reckon. Guerreiro had a shocker too.
Portugal will pull a Euro 2016 again but probably only reach 1/4s this time.

Ah I am glad it was an early goal to get it out of the way.
My 12/1 treble is still alive at least!
Portugal - To Win Either 1-0 - 2-0 @ 3.300
Uruguay 2 - 0 @ 1.775 (Anytime Correct Score - 90 Mins)
Spain - To Win Either 1-0 - 2-0 - 3-0 @ 2.050
Also have a double of both Spain and Uruguay to win to nil, holding thumbs...

Good luck Stevie!