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Champions League Predictions > Sep 18th & 19th

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The first round of matches from the 2018/19 Champions League group stage are set to take place after the international break. The odds are posted above. No ELO ratings until after a couple of group matches so do your best to post your tips and recommended bets for this first set of games. :ok

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Liverpool - PSG will be interesting, i reckon goals, over 3,5+bts asking too much?

Spurs Milan also goals, I can see Spurs winning, but wouldn't bet on them.

Schalke maybe?

Brugge - Dortmund goals?

Hoffenheim seems like a decent price

Roma could score vs RM

Juventus seems like a good value as well

 

Thoughts?

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3 hours ago, newjack said:

Schalke maybe?

Be careful here, Schalke lost key midfielders Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka in the summer and have started badly in the Bundesliga this season with 3 defeats from 3 games. I don't think you should back a team just because it's in a superior league either, Porto are no muggs and if anything have underachieved in UCL in recent seasons.

On the flipside, one of Porto's main weapons are crosses in the box, balls over the top and set-pieces. Naldo and Salif Sane (Schalke's centre-backs) are pretty good at dealing with this sort of thing as they are physically strong and very good in the air. If Schalke then also play a low block it can help negate the pace of Marega and Aboubakar (Porto's strikers).

I think odds are fairly well set in this game, Porto +0.50 line is currently 1.52; I would want 1.70 before getting involved or Schalke's main CB's would have to be unavailable to take away team on +0.25 line at current prices.

At the moment it's a no bet for me.

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Barca v PSV: Probably the easiest to call, Barca and over 3.5 goals at 8/11 makes sense. PSV on fire in Dutch league but no comparison to La Liga but may contribute to the scoring, but Barca can score 4 anyway.

Inter v Tottenham: Spurs loss of form and making costly mistakes is a bad sign going to the San Siro to lock horns with a ‘storied’ club from the past eager to test themselves at this level again. Keeping it simple with a draw no bet on Inter at around Evens.

Club Brugge v B. Dortmund: Dortmund back in form and should win here despite Brugge killing it in the Belgian league, again chalk and cheese with the Bundesliga. 8/11 on Dortmund win.

Galatasaray v Lokomotiv Moscow: Gala at a shade under Evens is the bet, with the wealth of experience at this level and the home advantage.

Liverpool v PSG: Needs no explanation, two rampant attacks, btts and over 2.5 goals at 4/6 is a Nap/Lock.

Monaco v Atletico Madrid: 8/11 for the away win as Monaco has lost many star players and Atletico are wiley old campaigners.

Red Star Belgrade v Napoli: Odds a bit low on the away win, so not bet for me. Red Star an unknown quantity at this level and lack of supporters in the ground is another confounding variable.

Schalke v Porto:  Another tricky call, if pushed Btts at 3/4 might be a play.

Ajax v AEK Athens: AEK have already dumped Celtic out but a rampant Ajax side with a mixture of youth and experience is a step too far so chancing -1.5 AH at 6/5.

Shakhtar v Hoffenheim: Not the Shakhtar of old when they were super competitive at this level, makes this a tricky call. On balance no bet, even both teams to score is a bit short.

Benfica v Bayern Munich: Bayern are built to challenge in this competition perennially and are strong enough to get the job done away to a Benfica side far from convincing lately, 4/9.

Man City v Lyon: When Man City are motivated they can score for fun and Lyon are susceptible at the back whilst able to also contribute to the scoring so Man City and over 3.5 goals at around Evens.

Real Madrid v Roma: Real live and breathe the Champions league and will again try to create history despite the loss of CR7. They will be focussed and too much for a Roma side leaky and inconsistent. -1.5 AH on Real at a shade under Evens.

Valencia v Juventus: Again a side built for the champions league and destined to go very deep, will be too strong for a disappointing Valencia side, so straight win on Juve at 4/5.

Viktoria Plzen v CSKA Moscow: A slight lean to the home side but too many unknowns so no bet.

Young Boys v Man Utd: When focussed Utd are a decent team but more leaky at the back than recent seasons so a high scoring Young Boys team can get on the score sheet. Btts at 4/5 is therefore preferred to the Utd win (3/4).

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11 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Be careful here, Schalke lost key midfielders Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka in the summer and have started badly in the Bundesliga this season with 3 defeats from 3 games. I don't think you should back a team just because it's in a superior league either, Porto are no muggs and if anything have underachieved in UCL in recent seasons.

On the flipside, one of Porto's main weapons are crosses in the box, balls over the top and set-pieces. Naldo and Salif Sane (Schalke's centre-backs) are pretty good at dealing with this sort of thing as they are physically strong and very good in the air. If Schalke then also play a low block it can help negate the pace of Marega and Aboubakar (Porto's strikers).

I think odds are fairly well set in this game, Porto +0.50 line is currently 1.52; I would want 1.70 before getting involved or Schalke's main CB's would have to be unavailable to take away team on +0.25 line at current prices.

At the moment it's a no bet for me.

Very nice write up on this. Yeah it's a tricky bet, thus far all i'm liking is "the main game" which is Liverpool and PSG for goals and BTS as mentioned before, others are just not there. Even this game odds are slammed down to hell, I do fancy Liverpool & Over 3.5 @4.50 Bet365 since the home side hasn't lost at Anfield in ages, but with the firepower and talent of PSG it's gonna be tough. I don't need to be right often to make this a good bet tho

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Hi guys,

 

This is my ticket for the middle of the week:

Monaco - Atletico Madrid : Monaco AH 1.5 @ 1.34

Red Star Belgrade - Napoli: Red Star AH 2 @ 1.30

Real Madrid - Roma : Roma AH 2.5 @ 1.38

Villarreal - Rangers : Rangers AH 2.5 @ 1.30

Sporting Lisbon - Qarabag : Qarabag AH 2.5 @ 1.29

TOTAL ODDS: 4,03 with 10 units

 

Good luck !

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Champions League is back baby!

Liverpool - PSG

I have to take Liverpool given their confidence, attractive football and playing at Anfield. Don't watch too much of PSG but from what I can tell, they haven't really hit top form yet under Tuchel despite getting the points.

Liverpool & BTTS @ 3.25

 

Inter - Spurs

No Lloris and Alli for Spurs. Over @ 2.5 looks tasty at 2.10. I wonder why. BTTS @ 1.85 too.

BTTS @ 1.85

 

Monaco - Atleti

I am backing Atletico to win the whole thing and this to be another 0-1 standard win for Simeone's men.

Atletico win & U2.5 @ 3.60

 

Treble @ 21.65

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Young Boys V Manchester Utd

Manchester Utd @ 1.75 Betfair

I'm going to back Utd once again as I feel reports of their demise are overblown. Mourinho's men gained a morale boosting victory at Watford on Saturday and should be further boosted by the return of LB Shaw and ST Rashford for this game.

We know that Swiss teams are generally hard to beat and I feel Young Boys will prove to be gritty opponents. Despite this, Utd have an overwhelming firepower advantage and a team full of match winners.

Young Boys game in the Swiss Cup on Saturday night went to extra time and this wont of helped their legs for the Utd game. Young Boys also have a number of injury concerns for Utd game including key centre-back Gregory Wuthrich, if he doesn't make the game it will be a big miss for them.

Managed to get Utd -0.50 @ 1.78 last night but 1.75 is still good value in my view. I give them around 60-66% chance of winning this encounter so odds should really be in the 1.67 - 1.52 region.

Edited by Mindfulness

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Liverpool vs PSG

The Champions League is back and one of the pick of the matches from the first round of action is set to be played at Anfield in an 8pm kick-off tomorrow night when last season's beaten finalists Liverpool take on reigning Ligue 1 champions PSG. It is arguably a battle of the two best attacking forces in European football.

Jurgen Klopp's side have started the season as well as they could have hoped. 5 wins from their first 5 league games of the season has seen them move to joint top of the Premier League with Chelsea. Both sides with a 100% record and the 2-1 win away to Tottenham last weekend will have boosted morale within the Reds camp.

Former Borussia Dortmund manager Thomas Tuchel has taken over at the helm at PSG. It has been a very solid start to the domestic season for the champions. A convincing 4-0 win over Monaco in the French Super Cup has been followed up by 5 wins in the league. Each victory coming by at least a two goal margin showing the dominance of Les Parisiens.

This is a tough group for both sides. They are joined by Italian Serie A title contenders Napoli and reigning Serbian champions Red Star Belgrade. The pressure is perhaps more on Liverpool to take all three points here because it's going to be a group where the home form will have a large say in who qualifies. Every away game is daunting for every team here.

Ultimately, you'd be a fool to not back goals here. It's Mane, Firmino, and Salah versus Neymar, Mbappe, and Cavani. Which attacking talent will prevail victorious? I think it could swing either way but Liverpool's general style of play could well be too much for the French side.

Calling an outright winner here will be brave but I think Liverpool could snatch it. I still have doubts about this PSG side doing the business on the European stage. Tuchel never really cracked the Champions League with Borussia Dortmund and he might have similar struggles with PSG. In fact, Tuchel himself hasn't really won much at all in his career so his appointment as PSG gaffer is a risk in itself.

The 2016/17 DFB-Pokal and the 2018 French Super Cup are his only achievements. Compare that to Klopp who can boast to having won Bundesliga twice, 2011/12 DFB-Pokal, German Super Cup twice, and finished runner-up in this competition once with Dortmund and once with Liverpool. He's been there and done it. That experience and home advantage could edge it for the Reds.

Liverpool to Win @ 2.33 with UniBet

BTTS @ 1.44 with Betfair

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Well i'm after bigger odds so this are my bets:

Milan - Spurs Over 2.5 at 2.05 Bet365

Inter had a shaky start to the season, 2 losses, 2 wins, averaging over 2.5 goals in 2/4 matches. Spurs currently 6th in the EPL, i'm leaning on away win here as well, but they do have defensive leaks obviously, but the stat that i like is out of 5 matches played this season 5 were over 2,5. They concieved in all but Manu game, so i'm on a lookout for a 1:2, 2:1 type result, if i had to pick a winner i'd say Spurs, but overs are less risky IMO.

Dortmund / Brugge over 3 goals at 2.05 Bet365

Dortmund had a solid start to the season and have been scoring a lot of goals. Granted it's only 3 matches played, but the quality is there, the ability to finish is there. It's a bit more risky pick since it's away from home and Brugge haven't exactly been a pushover in Belgium currently leading with 4 wins and 1 draw  But Brugge averages 3.7 goals per game (still early) so i have to give them some credit. I think away side will win, but it looks as if it's gonna be goal heavy since Dortmund reminds me of liverpool last year, offensively good but defensively poor.

Liverpool & BTS at 3.50 Bet365

Not much i can add here, but Firminho (doubtful), Mane, Salah on one side versus Neymar, Mbappe and Cavani on the other side. Liverpool's defense has been a lot better thus far, but hasn't really been tested yet. Out of the better clubs they've only played vs Spurs thus far and let a goal in, PSG will be a real test of defense and since they haven't lost at home in a while I feel like they'll really try and get 3 points here since in Paris it'll be much more difficult. This group has been hell group all together and if they can dominate Paris and win comfortably they'll look really good.

Atletico Madrid -1 at 2.30 Bet365

I was never a fan of AM, but i gotta give them credit to trash home side here. Monaco without Subasic, Jovetic, Ronny Lopez,.. currently in transition and are currently standing low in the league. With what Atletico brings and their ruthless defense i can't see past them.

Napoli -1,5 at 2.25 Bet365

Napoli with Anchelotti is not what it was with Sarri. It's evident, they're not scoring as much, they don't play pressure footie anymore, they look stale at times, but Zvezda is the ultimate underdog and it's hard for me to see them getting any points in the group, much less beat top italian club. So i gotta give Napoli a big HC here, with all the talent they should be able to secure a comfortable win.

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Alright then..

Crvena zvezda - Napoli

So Red Star Belgrade,Rotern Stern or Stella Rossa di Belgrado is back where it`s belong - in top European competition.
It's little strange that journey took so long,but there you go. Better late than ever i guess.

In the first match of the group stage we will face Napoli, runners-up of the two consecutive seasons in Serie A.  A very strong team that you know quite a lot about so I will not waste my time writing too much about them.

Match will be played in amazing atmosphere.

Tickets are sold out for all three home matches so the Rajko Mitic Stadium will be packed with fans. The match will be attended by members of the Zvezda`s golden generation who won the Champions Cup in 1991 such as Dejan Savicevic,Robert Prosinecki, Sinisa Mihajlovic, Vladimir Jugovic,Darko Pancev etc. So it`s going to be quite a spectacle.

The team is looking good,still without a defeat in season. In play-off round of qualifications we knocked-out Salzburg with 2-2 aggregate result on aways goals with both of my picks (Crvena zvezda AH2 +1  and CZ to qualify) winners.
It is very important to mention that we finally have all players available. Lorenzo Ebicillio is back from injury,so is Jonathan Cafu who we signed from Bordeaux.

On the last day of transfer window we lost Nemanja Radonjic who went  to Olimpique Marseille,
but we bought three very good players - Causic, Boakye and Marin (former German internarional and former Chelsea player). All three of them are expected to start tomorrow. In particular, the return of Boakye is a significant reinforcement because Zvezda has stuggled a bit upfront.

I saw Napoli in couple of occasions in this season. Even though they didn't change their squad at all i feel that they are in some kind of transition under new coach,legendary Carlo Ancelotti,trying to adopt to his ideas and football philosophy.
Their backline look a little bit shaky and in this i see some chance for us to keep a tie tight and maybe even avoid a defeat,altough Napoli is stronger side with more quality.

Initially i was going for AH1 (+2/+1,5) because i think this will be much closer than odds suggest,but odds has dropped significantly so i`ll try with more risky pick.
Crvena zvezda to score over 0,5 team goals @1,85 

With Boakye,Marin,Ben&co. i think we have enough firepower to score at least one goal.
GL!

 

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Inter Milano v Tottenham

Inter Milano: Vrsaljko (2/0 d), Dalbert Henrique (3/0 d), Gagliardini (3/0 m), João Mário (0/0 m), Martínez (2/0 f)

Tottenham: Lloris (3/0 first goalkeeper), Alderweireld (4/0 d), Trippier (4/1 d), Alli (4/1 m), Sissoko (1/0 m), Janssen (0/0 f), Foyth (0/0 d)

 

AS Monaco v Atlético Madrid

AS Monaco: Subasic (0/0 g), Barreca (4/0 d), Touré (2/0 d), Pierre-Gabriel (1/0 d), Golovin (0/0 m), Rony Lopes (4/1 m), Pellegri (2/1 f), Jovetic (2/1 f), Geubbels (1/0 f)

Atlético Madrid: Savić (3/0 d), Arias (1/0 d), Vitolo (1/0 m), Kalinić (1/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Tottenham has over 2.5 goals in their last 6 away games in all competitions.
PSV Eindhoven has over 2.5 goals in their last 10 games in all competitions.
Liverpool won their last 4 home games in all competitions.
Atletico Madrid has under 2.5 goals in their last 6 games in all competitions.
Red Star has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in all competitions.
Brugge won their last 3 games in all competitions.

You can find interesting 53 Football Betting Streaks for 17.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-18-09-2018-11309

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In a very good game, the two teams score at will at the games of the championship. I expect a game open with many goals and phases, in front of the two goalspot
LIVERPOOL FC vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.45

Without a win, Schalke in the German league has only defeated so far in three games, Porto is an experienced team, we will support the best team, get the victory
FC SCHALKE 04 vs FC PORTO @@ FC PORTO, odds 2.80

Both teams are looking for a positive result to get over them as they come from defeats that have thrown them on the morale. We are essentially expecting their reaction and at least betting on scoring once in the game
INTER MILANO vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

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UEFA Champions League Predictions
 
Club Brugge - Borussia Dortmund
1-3 FT
2
1.90
Over(2.5)
1.60
Inter - Tottenham 2-1FT
1
2.67
 
GG
1.66
Over(2.5)
1.86
Barcelona - PSV 4-0 FT
1
1.10
Over(2.5)
1.23
 
Red Star Belgrade - Napoli">FK Red Star Belgrade - Napoli 0-2 FT
2
1.60
Schalke - FC Porto
3-1FT
1
2.42
GG
1.76
Over(2.5)
2.00
Galatasaray - FC Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 FT
GG
1.98
Over(2.5)
2.08
 
 
Edited by Gedkip
Missing information

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UEFA Champions League Predictions(Gedkip)


Club Brugge - Borussia Dortmund 1-3 FT

2 win(1.90)
Over(2.5) 1.60

Inter - Tottenham 2-1FT

1(2.67)
GG(1.66)
Over(2.5) 1.86

Barcelona - PSV 4-0 FT

1(1.10)
Over(2.5) 1.23


FK Red Star Belgrade - Napoli 0-2 FT

2(1.60)

Schalke - FC Porto 3-1FT

1(2.42)
GG(1.76)
Over(2.5) 2.00

Galatasaray - FC Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 FT

GG(1.98)
Over(2.5) 2.08

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I can only offer some historical perspective. Round 1 is the best of the six rounds for draws by big dogs. For away dogs of up to 5.99, the record of the dogs from 2007 to the present is 6-15-18. For home dogs of up to 5.99, the record is 1-7-13.

I'm going to hazard a guess that the reason for all the dropped points by favorites is more on the oddsmakers than on the sides. Meaning, in group play, in the midst of young seasons, where the participants are there because of what they did last season (or in qualifying)...and people are just guessing who is better, who is more motivated, etc. My entire theory is based on the notion that the odds already have everything current baked into them...not that the oddsmakers are always 'right,' but that the market moves match odds similarly based on injuries, weather, h2h, etc. Anyway, the draws are very marked in this case; the better sides are the better sides, and since this is CL group play where the object is to get three points (and there's no second leg to think about), sides don't press to win 4-0 and 'put the tie away'...the matches tend to be close, so dropped points usually means draws and not losses. Except for matches involving Arsenal. Kidding!

Today (as the odds currently stand) that's Brugge, Monaco, Red Star, Loko Moscow.

Tomorrow: Hoffenheim, Valencia, YB

Seven matches, odds around 3.80. If you played them all, you'd need two draws to show a profit. Last year there were three draws in five; the previous year five draws in eight. The year before that it was one draw in seven (with three outright wins by dogs...one of the years when it didn't work, at all).

If you only take two or three draws, take the ones you least expect to happen (or take the draws in the matches where there's a public favorite).

My best advice, though, is if you think a favorite's odds are too low, and you're considering taking the dog double chance at 1.80, take the draw instead at 3.80. You'll kick yourself if the dog wins it outright, but as you can see that doesn't happen that often. And there's no money long-term in taking anything at 1.80.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Hoffenheim has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in all competitions.
Benfica scored in last 33 games in all competitions.
Young Boys has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in all competitions.
Bayern Munich has over 2.5 goals in their last 6 games in all competitions.
Hoffenheim has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 away games in all competitions.
Shakhtar won their last 4 games in all competitions.

You can find interesting 56 Football Betting Streaks for 19.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-19-09-2018-11312

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Benfica - Bayern has its own glory, as two big clubs are fighting each other, with the Bavarians, of course, showing favorites. A nice team is the Portuguese and we will prefer to score
SL BENFICA vs FC BAYERN MUNICH @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

Excellent aggressive lines the two teams will give everything to win and I expect an open game with many goals
CF VALENCIA vs JUVENTUS TURIN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.90

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Shakhtar to beat Hoffenheim at 2.00 bet365

Shaktar are starting their consecutive journey in CL. The Ukrainians were able to get 3 home wins last year in their group and even achieved a prestigious win against Man City (even though the English team played with their reserves). This year the aim will be the same to get out of the group. This game is must win. Shakhtar don't have real competition in the local league and have 5 consecutive wins in the league. From the other side, Hoffenheim started unconvincing with 2 losses from 3 games in Bundesliga. In addition, the Germans have problems with injured and doubtful players. The total number reaches 10 players which most certainly will not play with Kevin Vogt, Lukas Rupp, Amiri, Denis Geiger and others. Hoffenheim are new to CL with last year playing in EL and finishing last in their group. Based on everything written, I see value in home win. GL ;)


 

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On 17.9.2018. at 7:09 PM, DrO said:



Crvena zvezda - Napoli


Initially i was going for AH1 (+2/+1,5) because i think this will be much closer than odds suggest,but odds has dropped significantly so i`ll try with more risky pick.
Crvena zvezda to score over 0,5 team goals @1,85 


 

I should have stick to AH pick.
Sorry guys. :$

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