ogii55

@ogii55 at it again! 

Paquet - Kr. Pliskova 7.00 at Boyles
Pliskova hates clay. This is her worst surface. I can't understand why she is so big favorite. It's true that she improved a lot in the last 12 months, even in red courts, but such odds. Kristina appeared six times in Rolan Garros and never won a match here... Paquet is nothing special, but she is home player, who is playing mainly on clay. The only thing she needs is a bad day for Pliskova, who is relying to much on her power serve and forehand. The French girl was compeative against in form Barty and Koulichkova. She is capable of scoring some surprise wins and had a decent value for such odds.

Paquet - Kr. Pliskova 7.00 at Boyles
Pliskova hates clay. This is her worst surface. I can't understand why she is so big favorite. It's true that she improved a lot in the last 12 months, even in red courts, but such odds. Kristina appeared six times in Rolan Garros and never won a match here... Paquet is nothing special, but she is home player, who is playing mainly on clay. The only thing she needs is a bad day for Pliskova, who is relying to much on her power serve and forehand. The French girl was compeative against in form Barty and Koulichkova. She is capable of scoring some surprise wins and had a decent value for such odds.

One from me
Pironkova - Barthel 6,2 Matchbook (6.4 Betfair, 5.91 Pinncle)
Pironkova is in awful form this season, but she never been a constant player. Here she must fight for every single point, because last year she reached a 1/4-final. If she faills in the first round, she will be out of Top 100. Bartel showed amazing form in clay so far, but she never had a success in RG. She participated here 6 times and lost 4 times in the first round.
 
 
 

One from me
Pironkova - Barthel 6,2 Matchbook (6.4 Betfair, 5.91 Pinncle)
Pironkova is in awful form this season, but she never been a constant player. Here she must fight for every single point, because last year she reached a 1/4-final. If she faills in the first round, she will be out of Top 100. Bartel showed amazing form in clay so far, but she never had a success in RG. She participated here 6 times and lost 4 times in the first round.
 
 
 

Already regiistrated for the event  GL to everyone.

It has been accepted now

Hi there, would you please add me this month. I will try to play. My PS name is ogii3

Hay in three is my opinion. The odds are around 2.00. In his previous two fights Bellew received heavy punches at the beginning of the fight. Now he will face a real heavyweight KO artist and I am not sure if he will be capable to handle his shots.
 
The value of the fight card is Maliniaggi win over Eggingtong. The odds are 2.8 plus in different bookies. The American is just better class and he knows how to fight in away arenas. He won his second world title in Ukraine. He is showing decent form recently with three wins in a row. Eggington is a nice fellow, but not sure if he will be fast enough to catch Maliniaggi.
 
 

Ramirez-Hidalgo vs Falla 2.37 Pinnacle
This one is from Quito's qualifications. Ramirez-Hidalgo is a typical clay court player, while Falla is coming from not so bad campaign on hard. I am sure that the Spanish player planned better his start of the season and will be fresher here.

Ramirez-Hidalgo vs Falla 2.37 Pinnacle
This one is from Quito's qualifications. Ramirez-Hidalgo is a typical clay court player, while Falla is coming from not so bad campaign on hard. I am sure that the Spanish player planned better his start of the season and will be fresher here.

Hi it's a late reply but it might be useful to someone. In the beginning I made lots of accas, combos or however you want to call it. And i rarely won. But when I won i usually won a relatively big amount compared to what I bet, so I had the impression to win more money than lose. But that feeling is generally just psychological until you realize you aren't exaclty winning more. So first advice, ALWAYS TRACK YOUR BETS no matter which type they are, simples, combos, etc. And track especially those that you make on shops or rooms or wherever. Then I suggest NOT TO BASE YOUR BETTING STRATEGY ON ACCAS, COMBOS, ETC Personally I'm not good at that so I may be a bit biased but it has happened to me lots of times that the lower odd was the only to fail and that's frustrating. Also each odd offered by the bookie is made in fonction that they give an edge for them, that's why you can find odds of 1.85-1.85 which at first sight it's a 50/50 to us but in reality is a 54%-54% which makes a total of 108 which seems illogical but this 8 percent is the margin that bookies will win in the long term. And when you do combos you are just giving more edge to the bookie so it'll be harder for you to beat them in the long term. It's nice to do combos but just do it for fun and as a big longshot but ALWAYS WITHOUT RISKING YOUR BANK. So now we imply the next advice BASE YOUR BETTING STRATEGY ON ONE SELECTION BETS, in other words bet just one thing, two reasons here, one you're not giving the bookies more edge and the second, once your selection is a winner your bet is automatically a winner. No more waiting for another match which can be fatal for the bet. Then another advice in my own experience and one that can save lot of money. BE RESPONSIBLE AND DISCIPLINED. Bad streaks can happen to anyone here. I've had bad streaks of 8-9 losses or just one win out of 13-14 bets. Psychologically this can be really painful as you start getting anxious and start doing stupid things like betting big amounts of money on some rare match without almost no knowledge of the situation (Ex: a team in albania that has won the last 3 against a team who hasn't won in five) This usually harms your bank. If you're starting to feel anxious or uncomfortable just take a break ,relax and then come back stronger. Another advice I'd give is HAVE A STAKING SYSTEM it's important to have an strategy to decide the amount of money. Personally I bet from 0.5, 1, 1,5.. to 5 units. Although I've never made a 5 unit bet so far with each unit respresenting a certain amount of money. For instance, 1 unit is 1euro, then 2 are two euros and then 5 are 5 euros. There are plenty of systems and a quick search on internet will help you with this (combined stake, flat stake, fibonacci, kelly criteria, etc). Then you can decide which one fits you the best. I personally use a combined stake system as some outcomes are more probable than others and betting the same amount on a 2.2 bet and a 6-odds bet  seems wrong to me, but as I said this depends on your betting strategy. DON'T PUT YOURSELF FINACIALLY IN RISK. It seems obvious but lots of people suffer from ludopathy and this can just make them bet more money than they can afford so some bad losses will damage them financially. It's important to limit yourself to an amount of money lost, once you've reached this amount, stop , try to earn the money again and start over or simply quit betting. FOCUS ON JUST ONE OR TWO SPORT, to bet you need to track the sport as it will give you information that can be useful when betting and this takes time. So if you try to bet on 5 sports, you probably won't have enough time and due to this you might not inform well yourself about whats going on in that sport. In my case I bet mainly on tennis because I like it and it seems the less difficult to me. Also most of the betting markets  have just two outcomes. For example, match winner, number of games, handicap, etc. And this is good because the less options the less the margin is for the bookie. I bet also on football but way less than I do on tennis but I just bet on the main leagues (England, spain, italy, champions league and some international matches) as it's easy to track the results, to watch the matches and to read information on the web. Then I ocasionally bet on basket (just NBA playoffs) and international rugby. HAVE STATISTICAL SUPPORT this is important as you're reading numbers that show how a player perform, how many goals a team concede or score. There are plenty of websites that show stats for different sports, especially tennis and football. And you're not just basing on what you see and think which some times can not be  accurate. ALWAYS READ, the more you know the better you'll be, there are lots of articles online that talk about very interesting stuff, so it's never a bad idea to constantly learn more. In my case I've learnt a lot learning and it has given me different approaches. HAVE AS MANY BETTING ACCOUNTS AS YOU CAN, why this? because winning in the long term is defined by small margins. Bookies rarely offer the same odds on the same outcome, they are usually different. This difference is marginal but after a long time this difference of 0.05 or 0.10 will be important. Also you can take advantage of the welcome bonus. QUALITY OVER QUANTITY this is my betting resolution for this year. Last year I made some shocking bets which at the end didn't allow me to win more money. It's better to take a lot of time preparing one bet rather than betting several without a proper research. In the end is your money that is in play so give it the best use. START WITH LITTLE MONEY, no need to rush yourself. If you're starting i suggest to bet minimal amounts of money just to see how your bets do. Once you've ended this 'trial' start betting bigger amounts. (ALWAYS BEING REASONABLE)
One I'd like to highlight again is the TRACKING OF BETS. It's important to have a record of your bets, your winning percentage, your yield, if possible every month in detail, the more details you have the easier it'll be to analyse your bets after you reach a certain amount of bets (at least 250 to start studying your performance) then you can identify which type of bets gives you the better yield and which ones make you lose money, or at which odds  you're beating the house, etc. This information will help you later to filter your bets selection. And what's more it'll tell you if you're winning or losing money.
In my personal experience, last january I was about to quit betting because I had lost big money. I did everything wrong, bet on unkwown football leagues, bet on sports i don't know, lots of combos, bet huge money after losing, but hopefully a good run in january encouraged me to read more about betting and I ended the year with almost 100 units won just on tennis and another 20 on football. I recovered all the money now I'm marginally over zero with outrights at big odds that are currently trading at less than 1.5. So there are plenty of positives to me this year.
But I know there's still much things to learn I'm just happy I'm not the same bettor I was a year ago. I hope what I wrote can be useful for someone and hope this can help them avoid being the bettor i was before 2016 because losing money is never pleasant.
So finally to answer your question, yes it's possible to win money on betting. Then if you want to make a proper living of betting you have to take it to another level.
Good luck to everyone

Elie - Townsend 4.15 5dimes/4.00 bet365
Elie made great season and improved her rankings. She is very good on hard and loves to surprise better ranked players. Townsend started well the season, but sometimes she has problems with motivation going doing to lower grade tournaments. Hard is not her best surface despite the fact that last year she scored some nice results on it. She was often beaten in the first or second round of such events. Sweet odds for always ready to fight Elie.

Elie - Townsend 4.15 5dimes/4.00 bet365
Elie made great season and improved her rankings. She is very good on hard and loves to surprise better ranked players. Townsend started well the season, but sometimes she has problems with motivation going doing to lower grade tournaments. Hard is not her best surface despite the fact that last year she scored some nice results on it. She was often beaten in the first or second round of such events. Sweet odds for always ready to fight Elie.

You need to be disciplined and to follow some of your own personal rules in order to be a successful in a long term. There are a punters, who are making a living from tennis betting. 5% is realistic and in time you could be able to raise it. But remember - discipline and good bank managment is the key. I suffered a lot in the past from bad swings that destroyed my bank (not once:) even that I made a good hits.

Found one I fancy in the end.
Back Rafael Nadal (+23.5 Aces) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.83 with Skybet
Nobody's disputing the fact that Raonic will have more aces than Nadal, but I think that this handicap has a very good chance nonetheless, as there are plenty of possible scenarios that support it. If Raonic is feeling a bit ill, for example, his serving will drop by a bit. That's the first scenario. The other is that Nadal will be serving well himself and get a few aces on the board, which is fairly probably imo given that his serve has been working well so far in this season. As for the stats - Raonic hasn't covered this handicap in the AO yet, which is understandable with all the shorter matches, but it's important that he almost didn't cover it against RBA (9-33). Nadal has a better serve than RBA and perhaps the same quality return. The one thing that speaks against this bet is that Raonic went 23-4 in aces against Nadal in Brisbane, but he was serving out of his skin in the decider and Nadal seemed to check out mentally, which isn't likely to happen here.

Btw, this is epic.
 

Pavliuchenkova - Kuznecova 2.30 Will Hill
 
Pavliuchenkova beat Sveta few days ago. Kuznecova had a very tough match against Jankovic, but managed to win it. Pavliuchenkova is great fighter, who beat top form Svitolina. Pretty close match with some odds edge fir Nastya.
 
 

Those are really painful to watch. My last experience was doubles Huber/Shanchez vs Gavrilova/Kasatkina. It was 6:1, 4:0 for my girls before the horror movie started.... However sometimes a happy end is needed. Well done, mate!

Utterly sickening. I was hoping for Kuznetsov to give me that one lucky break at nice odds, but then Melzer barged in and lost from 5-2* and a match point. Streaks like these really tempt one to do something silly - a bet on Verdasco to win 3-0 tomorrow, anyone?
Edit: Pouille visibly limited, but fighting. Isn't going to go far though.
Edit2: Now that Bublik is a break up in the fourth, it would be really painful for me to see him lose. Double break up now even, but got broken when serving for it. Just incredible.
Edit3: Thank you Sasha.

Bublik has gone from 6.50 to 4.50 . Edit: actually it was even crazier (pic).

Good luck to everyone!

I was thinking long and hard about how to approach this year's Australian Open, since I'm going into it -170pts down and that obviously isn't adding to my confidence. That said, I think that "fear is the mind killer" and that one shouldn't be overly cautious just because of a bad streak, especially if the said streak had plenty of near-misses that could've easily turned it into a break-even or even a profitable result.
Now - I think that it's a good idea to do a lot of research and I've also noticed that someone on here requested a longer preview, so why not, let's combine the two, write all the thoughts down, at least for the outrights. Here we go then.
P.S.: Apologies in advance for all grammar, spelling and betting mistakes
Men's Tournament
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are the two main favourites in the men's draw and who's to oppose that, right? Well, I don't know really, they didn't look all that great in Doha and I'm looking at you especially, Novak Djokovic. You've hired some sort of a zen buddhist to help you out and you're then raging on the court against much weaker players and getting fined for bad conduct in the final? Sounds like the plan has worked out!
Looking at the first quarter, it might seem like Murray has quite a minefield ahead of himself with both Nishikori and Federer in the same part of the draw, but don't let that fool you. He's a massive favourite to win, because he can meet only one of them! There's Pouille and Isner to trouble him before that, but good luck backing those. No bet.
The second quarter should be much more tense, with Wawrinka not looking like a particularly strong favourite on the face of it. He lost against Nishikori, right? Well, that's not a bad result in my book and he's got all the weapons and he always ups his level for the Grand Slams. The other guys, meanwhile, all have their own issues - Tsonga hasn't looked good recently, Kyrgios is allegedly injured, and Cilic lost against Kovalik in Chennai. This should lead to the logical conclusion that Jack Sock is to be backed here in double-digit and I even wanted to do that really, but I'm really afraid of the heat. It's supposed to be hot in Melbourne and Sock is known for having problems with such conditions - and he's also played way too much tennis recently to be fully fit. No bet.
The third quarter should be between Rafa and Raonic, but there could be many more surprises imo. Zverev could beat Rafa with a bit of luck, Raonic could struggle with fitness, etc. And there's actually a guy that I like this time in Roberto Bautista-Agut. He's got a low profile, but he is a top player in his own right and he's got a good record in Melbourne. Good form as well, so he's worth a shot at long odds imo.
Finally, we get to the fourth quarter, the one where Djokovic is. Why not Dimitrov, however? He played stunning tennis in the first week, he seems to be in a great place mentally, and he's got a soft draw early on, so he should be fully fit going into the possible clash with Djokovic. It will be tough, he will need some luck, but I'm going to give it a shot.
In side-bets, Murray is worth a shot to go further than Djokovic imo, as is Thiem to go further than Berdych and Bautista-Agut to go further than Monfils.
Women's Tournament
As far as the women are concerned, I think that both Kerber and Williams are overrated in the betting, but Kerber probably has the better chance and I certainly wouldn't mind her going all the way to win my pre-season bet on her winning at least one Grand Slam title.
With that, I'm not going to have any bets in the first quarter. Not only do I hope for Kerber to win it, but I also think that she's got every chance to do so. She wasn't great in the warm-up tournaments, but she's got the winning mentality and I think that this would potentially push her over the line against the likes of Kasatkina or Bouchard. Let's give her a chance and hope she delivers without doubling down.
The second quarter has Halep, Kuznetsova and Venus, but I think that it could easily be Svitolina to steal the show, as she has certainly been the best of them all so far in this season. Scrap that, Siniakova has, but she's unproven in Grand Slams and I doubt her mental resilience, sorry. Unless Svitolina breaks down mentally, she could go really really far.
The third quarter is where Karolina Pliskova, the dark horse of the entire event, is. She's got all the weapons, she was mighty impressive in her tournament win two weeks ago, and she has an incredibly soft draw. But yeah, there's also Radwanska, who leads the H2H record between the two by SEVEN wins to NONE and FOURTEEN sets to NONE. Crazy.
The fourth quarter is where all the fun is, plenty of ball-bashers with no plan B and I really enjoy how Wozniacki is there to enjoy it all. She'll get past the first two rounds, but it will be a minefield after that and I don't see her winning the quarter, just doesn't have the game imo. I guess that there's plenty of money going on Williams, but I've got serious doubts about her - come on, she hasn't played a decent match since the US Open and she has a wedding to look forward to! In other news, Cibulkova has apparently just had a death in the family, so that could either boost her or pull her down. Shrewd bets are probably Konta and Strycova, I'll go with the latter.
In side-bets, I'll back Svitolina to go further than Wozniacki and Radwanska to go further than Halep.
Bets
Back Roberto Bautista-Agut to win the third quarter at 18.00 with Unibet
Back Grigor Dimitrov to win the fourth quarter at 8.50 with Coral
Back Andy Murray (vs. Novak Djokovic) at 1.90 with Bet365
Back Dominic Thiem (vs. Tomas Berdych) at 1.83 with Bet365
Back Roberto Bautista-Agut (vs. Gael Monfils) at 1.83 with Bet365
Back Barbora Strycova to win the fourth quarter at 29.00 with Bet365
Back Elina Svitolina (vs. Caroline Wozniacki) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Simona Halep) at 2.25 with Bet365

Men's: http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/2017_MS_draw.pdf
Women's: http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/2017_WS_draw.pdf
Just some random observations - Djokovic facing Verdasco in the first round , Raonic has a pretty straightforward draw by the looks of things, Berdych-Federer possible in R3, yeah Federer without a chance in this draw, Nishikori would be next and then Murray, that looks impossible without some tremendous luck. In women's, its Pliskova who has the softest draw from the bigger favourites, by far perhaps even. Kerber has a relatively easy start, while Serena could go Bencic-Safarova-Babos-Strycova, all possible upsets if the cards fall right for them and Williams doesn't perform.

Sousa - Sock 3.20 Pinnacle
 
Sousa won pretty easy all his matches. He didn't have problems until the final. In the semis Sock had 50/50 match against Johnson and won just 3 more points ,but that was enough to go to the final. The H2H is 1:0 for Sousa and the win was on clay, the favorite surface of Sock.