FleetFanatic

I'm waiting to see what bet365 offer first...

they have regularly done either bet 1, get stakes back as a free bet (to then use on another in shortlist, so 2 for the price of 1);
their other one was bet 1, get the 50% of stake refunded as cash - so every 2 bets gave me the money to cover another.

I'd rather bet 10 for the price of 5 or 6 than play for 6th/7th/8th but guess it's down to personal preference.

I'm waiting to see what bet365 offer first...

they have regularly done either bet 1, get stakes back as a free bet (to then use on another in shortlist, so 2 for the price of 1);
their other one was bet 1, get the 50% of stake refunded as cash - so every 2 bets gave me the money to cover another.

I'd rather bet 10 for the price of 5 or 6 than play for 6th/7th/8th but guess it's down to personal preference.

Betfred are doing 8 places for ew bets placed after 12 noon thurs to friday night on the national 

Here's an interesting thing - If I slacked the above criteria just the one little notch - to be make it 'won at 3m or more' instead of 'won a distance greater than 3m)
Then only 2 horses would actually improve their rating enough to score 90+ = Mister Malarkey & Canelo.

With only 7 qualifiers at the moment (and I like to have 10 if possible, especially if any offer mean I'm only betting the stakes of 5), I think I'll shortlist those two.

Well, I pass by here from time to time. Those that know me from previous years will know I back anything that rates 90+ in my little trends calculation. Now the 'peak previous run period' has been & gone, I have rated the first 40 in the declarations for now - will up date if any more withdraw etc. Currently dealing with the death of a brother at the age of 45, so will do my best...)2017: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2018: 1st, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 6)
2019: 3rd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2021: (currently shortlist of 9 - 7 plus an additional 2)
1 Bristol de Mai (FR) 10 11 10 167 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
74
 
2 The Storyteller (IRE) 10 11 8 165 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE
WITHDRAWN
 
3 Chris's Dream (IRE) 9 11 7 164 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
54
 
4 Yala Enki (FR) 11 11 3 160 Hills of Ledbury Ltd Paul Nicholls
76
 
5 Ballyoptic (IRE) 11 11 1 158 Mills & Mason Partnership Nigel Twiston-Davies
83
 
6 Definitly Red (IRE) 12 11 1 158 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
63
 
7 Lake View Lad (IRE) 11 11 0 157 Mr Trevor Hemmings N. W. Alexander
92
 
8 Burrows Saint (FR) 8 10 13 156 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE
90
 
9 Magic of Light (IRE) 10 10 13 156 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Mrs J. Harrington IRE
74
 
10 Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 11 10 12 155 Slaneyville Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
83
 
11 Talkischeap (IRE) 9 10 12 155 Mr Charles Dingwall Alan King
90
 
12 Tout Est Permis (FR) 8 10 12 155 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade
65
 
13 Anibale Fly (FR) 11 10 12 155 Mr John P. McManus A. J. Martin IRE
90
 
14 Mister Malarky (GB) 8 10 12 155 Wendy & Malcolm Hezel Colin Tizzard
81
 
15 Kimberlite Candy (IRE) 9 10 10 153 Mr John P. McManus Tom Lacey
83
 
16 Any Second Now (IRE) 9 10 9 152 Mr John P. McManus T. M. Walsh IRE
92
 
17 Balko des Flos (FR) 10 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
56
 
18 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 11 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
56
 
19 Ok Corral (IRE) 11 10 8 151 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson
72
 
20 Takingrisks (IRE) 12 10 7 150 Mr Frank Bird Nicky Richards
65
 
21 Shattered Love (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
63
 
22 Jett (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Mrs J. Harrington IRE
49
 
23 Lord du Mesnil (FR) 8 10 6 149 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
92
 
24 Potters Corner (IRE) 11 10 6 149 All Stars Sports Racing & J Davies Christian Williams
76
 
25 Class Conti (FR) 9 10 6 149 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE
74
 
26 Milan Native (IRE) 8 10 6 149 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
81
 
27 Discorama (FR) 8 10 6 149 Thomas Friel/Andrew Gemmell Paul Nolan IRE
83
 
28 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 12 10 5 148 Prof Caroline Tisdall & Mr John Gent David Pipe
72
 
29 Cloth Cap (IRE) 9 10 5 148 Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
90
 
30 Cabaret Queen (GB) 9 10 5 148 Syndicates.Racing W. P. Mullins IRE
56
 
31 Minellacelebration (IRE) 11 10 5 148 Mr Nick Elliott Katy Price00
58
 
32 Canelo (IRE) 8 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus Alan King
81
 
33 The Long Mile (GB) 7 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus J.P.Dempsey IRE
52
 
34 Give Me A Copper (IRE) 11 10 4 147 Done, Ferguson, Mason, Nicholls & Wood Paul Nicholls
76
 
35 Farclas (FR) 7 10 3 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
70
 
36 Minella Times (IRE) 8 10 3 146 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE
74
 
37 Sub Lieutenant (IRE) 12 10 3 146 Ms G. Howell Georgie Howell
79
 
38 Hogan's Height (IRE) 10 10 3 146 Foxtrot Racing: Hogan's Height Jamie Snowden
81
 
39 Double Shuffle (IRE) 11 10 2 145 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
63
 
40 Ami Desbois (FR) 11 10 2 145 The Reserved Judgment Partnership Graeme McPherson
54
 

Blacklion 74
Some Neck 70
Secret Reprieve 63

So my current crop against the field are:
 
8 Lake View Lad (IRE)
33/1
92
9 Burrows Saint (FR)
14/1
90
12 Talkischeap (IRE)
66/1
90
14 Anibale Fly (FR)
33/1
90
19 Any Second Now (IRE)
10/1
92
28 Lord du Mesnil (FR)
33/1
92
34 Cloth Cap (IRE)
4/1
90

Also shortlisted: Mister Malarkey, Canelo

Not worried about ante-post - on the day there's normally some sort of back 1, back another free type offer, so here's hoping...

Great work mate and extremely sorry to hear the sad news regarding your loss, sending my best wishes. 
I have been doing some work on the National and will keep working on it until I have a shortlist of three but Anibale Fly cropped up for me as well. 
Keep up the good work, look forward to reading it.

Well, I pass by here from time to time. Those that know me from previous years will know I back anything that rates 90+ in my little trends calculation. Now the 'peak previous run period' has been & gone, I have rated the first 40 in the declarations for now - will up date if any more withdraw etc. Currently dealing with the death of a brother at the age of 45, so will do my best...)2017: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2018: 1st, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 6)
2019: 3rd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2021: (currently shortlist of 9 - 7 plus an additional 2)
1 Bristol de Mai (FR) 10 11 10 167 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
74
 
2 The Storyteller (IRE) 10 11 8 165 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE
WITHDRAWN
 
3 Chris's Dream (IRE) 9 11 7 164 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
54
 
4 Yala Enki (FR) 11 11 3 160 Hills of Ledbury Ltd Paul Nicholls
76
 
5 Ballyoptic (IRE) 11 11 1 158 Mills & Mason Partnership Nigel Twiston-Davies
83
 
6 Definitly Red (IRE) 12 11 1 158 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
63
 
7 Lake View Lad (IRE) 11 11 0 157 Mr Trevor Hemmings N. W. Alexander
92
 
8 Burrows Saint (FR) 8 10 13 156 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE
90
 
9 Magic of Light (IRE) 10 10 13 156 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Mrs J. Harrington IRE
74
 
10 Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 11 10 12 155 Slaneyville Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
83
 
11 Talkischeap (IRE) 9 10 12 155 Mr Charles Dingwall Alan King
90
 
12 Tout Est Permis (FR) 8 10 12 155 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade
65
 
13 Anibale Fly (FR) 11 10 12 155 Mr John P. McManus A. J. Martin IRE
90
 
14 Mister Malarky (GB) 8 10 12 155 Wendy & Malcolm Hezel Colin Tizzard
81
 
15 Kimberlite Candy (IRE) 9 10 10 153 Mr John P. McManus Tom Lacey
83
 
16 Any Second Now (IRE) 9 10 9 152 Mr John P. McManus T. M. Walsh IRE
92
 
17 Balko des Flos (FR) 10 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
56
 
18 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 11 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
56
 
19 Ok Corral (IRE) 11 10 8 151 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson
72
 
20 Takingrisks (IRE) 12 10 7 150 Mr Frank Bird Nicky Richards
65
 
21 Shattered Love (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
63
 
22 Jett (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Mrs J. Harrington IRE
49
 
23 Lord du Mesnil (FR) 8 10 6 149 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
92
 
24 Potters Corner (IRE) 11 10 6 149 All Stars Sports Racing & J Davies Christian Williams
76
 
25 Class Conti (FR) 9 10 6 149 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE
74
 
26 Milan Native (IRE) 8 10 6 149 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
81
 
27 Discorama (FR) 8 10 6 149 Thomas Friel/Andrew Gemmell Paul Nolan IRE
83
 
28 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 12 10 5 148 Prof Caroline Tisdall & Mr John Gent David Pipe
72
 
29 Cloth Cap (IRE) 9 10 5 148 Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
90
 
30 Cabaret Queen (GB) 9 10 5 148 Syndicates.Racing W. P. Mullins IRE
56
 
31 Minellacelebration (IRE) 11 10 5 148 Mr Nick Elliott Katy Price00
58
 
32 Canelo (IRE) 8 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus Alan King
81
 
33 The Long Mile (GB) 7 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus J.P.Dempsey IRE
52
 
34 Give Me A Copper (IRE) 11 10 4 147 Done, Ferguson, Mason, Nicholls & Wood Paul Nicholls
76
 
35 Farclas (FR) 7 10 3 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
70
 
36 Minella Times (IRE) 8 10 3 146 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE
74
 
37 Sub Lieutenant (IRE) 12 10 3 146 Ms G. Howell Georgie Howell
79
 
38 Hogan's Height (IRE) 10 10 3 146 Foxtrot Racing: Hogan's Height Jamie Snowden
81
 
39 Double Shuffle (IRE) 11 10 2 145 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
63
 
40 Ami Desbois (FR) 11 10 2 145 The Reserved Judgment Partnership Graeme McPherson
54
 

Blacklion 74
Some Neck 70
Secret Reprieve 63

So my current crop against the field are:
 
8 Lake View Lad (IRE)
33/1
92
9 Burrows Saint (FR)
14/1
90
12 Talkischeap (IRE)
66/1
90
14 Anibale Fly (FR)
33/1
90
19 Any Second Now (IRE)
10/1
92
28 Lord du Mesnil (FR)
33/1
92
34 Cloth Cap (IRE)
4/1
90

Also shortlisted: Mister Malarkey, Canelo

Not worried about ante-post - on the day there's normally some sort of back 1, back another free type offer, so here's hoping...

Well, I pass by here from time to time. Those that know me from previous years will know I back anything that rates 90+ in my little trends calculation. Now the 'peak previous run period' has been & gone, I have rated the first 40 in the declarations for now - will up date if any more withdraw etc. Currently dealing with the death of a brother at the age of 45, so will do my best...)2017: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2018: 1st, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 6)
2019: 3rd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
2021: (currently shortlist of 9 - 7 plus an additional 2)
1 Bristol de Mai (FR) 10 11 10 167 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
74
 
2 The Storyteller (IRE) 10 11 8 165 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE
WITHDRAWN
 
3 Chris's Dream (IRE) 9 11 7 164 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
54
 
4 Yala Enki (FR) 11 11 3 160 Hills of Ledbury Ltd Paul Nicholls
76
 
5 Ballyoptic (IRE) 11 11 1 158 Mills & Mason Partnership Nigel Twiston-Davies
83
 
6 Definitly Red (IRE) 12 11 1 158 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
63
 
7 Lake View Lad (IRE) 11 11 0 157 Mr Trevor Hemmings N. W. Alexander
92
 
8 Burrows Saint (FR) 8 10 13 156 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE
90
 
9 Magic of Light (IRE) 10 10 13 156 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Mrs J. Harrington IRE
74
 
10 Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 11 10 12 155 Slaneyville Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
83
 
11 Talkischeap (IRE) 9 10 12 155 Mr Charles Dingwall Alan King
90
 
12 Tout Est Permis (FR) 8 10 12 155 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade
65
 
13 Anibale Fly (FR) 11 10 12 155 Mr John P. McManus A. J. Martin IRE
90
 
14 Mister Malarky (GB) 8 10 12 155 Wendy & Malcolm Hezel Colin Tizzard
81
 
15 Kimberlite Candy (IRE) 9 10 10 153 Mr John P. McManus Tom Lacey
83
 
16 Any Second Now (IRE) 9 10 9 152 Mr John P. McManus T. M. Walsh IRE
92
 
17 Balko des Flos (FR) 10 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
56
 
18 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 11 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
56
 
19 Ok Corral (IRE) 11 10 8 151 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson
72
 
20 Takingrisks (IRE) 12 10 7 150 Mr Frank Bird Nicky Richards
65
 
21 Shattered Love (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
63
 
22 Jett (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Mrs J. Harrington IRE
49
 
23 Lord du Mesnil (FR) 8 10 6 149 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
92
 
24 Potters Corner (IRE) 11 10 6 149 All Stars Sports Racing & J Davies Christian Williams
76
 
25 Class Conti (FR) 9 10 6 149 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE
74
 
26 Milan Native (IRE) 8 10 6 149 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
81
 
27 Discorama (FR) 8 10 6 149 Thomas Friel/Andrew Gemmell Paul Nolan IRE
83
 
28 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 12 10 5 148 Prof Caroline Tisdall & Mr John Gent David Pipe
72
 
29 Cloth Cap (IRE) 9 10 5 148 Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
90
 
30 Cabaret Queen (GB) 9 10 5 148 Syndicates.Racing W. P. Mullins IRE
56
 
31 Minellacelebration (IRE) 11 10 5 148 Mr Nick Elliott Katy Price00
58
 
32 Canelo (IRE) 8 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus Alan King
81
 
33 The Long Mile (GB) 7 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus J.P.Dempsey IRE
52
 
34 Give Me A Copper (IRE) 11 10 4 147 Done, Ferguson, Mason, Nicholls & Wood Paul Nicholls
76
 
35 Farclas (FR) 7 10 3 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
70
 
36 Minella Times (IRE) 8 10 3 146 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE
74
 
37 Sub Lieutenant (IRE) 12 10 3 146 Ms G. Howell Georgie Howell
79
 
38 Hogan's Height (IRE) 10 10 3 146 Foxtrot Racing: Hogan's Height Jamie Snowden
81
 
39 Double Shuffle (IRE) 11 10 2 145 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
63
 
40 Ami Desbois (FR) 11 10 2 145 The Reserved Judgment Partnership Graeme McPherson
54
 

Blacklion 74
Some Neck 70
Secret Reprieve 63

So my current crop against the field are:
 
8 Lake View Lad (IRE)
33/1
92
9 Burrows Saint (FR)
14/1
90
12 Talkischeap (IRE)
66/1
90
14 Anibale Fly (FR)
33/1
90
19 Any Second Now (IRE)
10/1
92
28 Lord du Mesnil (FR)
33/1
92
34 Cloth Cap (IRE)
4/1
90

Also shortlisted: Mister Malarkey, Canelo

Not worried about ante-post - on the day there's normally some sort of back 1, back another free type offer, so here's hoping...

OMG first 4 in a fashion?

Good luck all, don't think any of these will win, but it's the only way I'll win

230 As: Ardenlee Star
305 As: On A Session
340 As: Mirage Dancer
420 As: Keystroke
500 As: Sir Maximilian
535 As: Paddys Motorbike

230 As: Mustashry
305 As: Arizona
340 As: Blue Point
420 As: Pheonix of Spain
500 As: The Grand Visir
535 As: Latrobe

Congrats to all 3.

All prizes paid, and new Punters Lounge merchandise on the way to @Saddlesore & @FleetFanatic   
 

Won't tear up the trends, Tiger Roll is quite simply an exception. What a horse.

Here's an interesting one. If Bristol De Mai doesn't run, then all the weights go up by 4lbs I believe. If that is the case then Tiger Roll would not qualify on my trends calculations. To score 90+ they can only fail one trend & TR would suddenly fail a 2nd one.

The stats I use are based around this information; since changes were made to the course in 2013
& are based on the winning horses & all placed horses that were within 10 lengths of the winner.

Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 17/17
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 16/17
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 16/17
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 16/17
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 16/17
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 15/17
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 15/17
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 14/17
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 14/17
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 13/17

Although my scoring calculations are based on 2 years ago when it added up to 99, I can't bring myself to calculate a new points threshold when it still worked out last year. A simpler way would be to say that since 2013, 5 of the 6 winners (the last 5) & 8 of the 11 placed horses (those that finished within 10 lengths of winner) have either met, or failed just one of the above trends.
The exclusions are as follows:
Winner: AURORAS ENCORE (2013)
Placed: SAINT ARE (2015 & 2017) and PLEASANT COMPANY (2018)

Hope this helps understand where the figures have come from. They are still subject to change as I imagine around a quarter of the runners could yet still change.

Well I'm back for my annual trip into at the races on Punters Lounge.

As you check from last year's thread, the ratings I calculate got 1st, 4th & 5th, the year before it got 6 of the first 7 home, so we have high hopes again.
So I have started compiling the ratings for this year, as it's just over 2 weeks away.
Slowing working my way down the Racing Post racecard in numerical order.

*LIST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR BRISTOL DE MAI WITHDRAWAL/ALL WEIGHTS UP 4LBS*

ANIBALE FLY 90
VALTOR 49
TIGER ROLL    81
OUTLANDER    56
DON POLI    83
GO CONQUER    67
MALA BEACH    76
MINELLA ROCCO    83
LAKE VIEW LAD    74
PLEASANT COMPANY 92
BALLYOPTIC    74
DOUNIKOS    83
RATHVINDEN    74
ONE FOR ARTHUR    67
ROCK THE KASBAH    92
WARRIORS TALE    90
REGAL ENCORE    81
MAGIC OF LIGHT    65
A TOI PHIL    63
JURY DUTY    92
NOBLE ENDEAVOR    81
MONBEG NOTORIOUS 72
RAMSES DE TEILLEE 70
TEA FOR TWO    74
STEP BACK    92
ULTRAGOLD    65
BLOW BY BLOW    63
UP FOR REVIEW    72
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 92
VIEUX LION ROUGE 99
VALSEUR LIDO    74
VINTAGE CLOUDS    83
GENERAL PRINCIPLE 99
LIVELOVELAUGH    81
WALK IN THE MILL 99
FOLSOM BLUE    72
CAPTAIN REDBEARD 63
BLESS THE WINGS    70
JOE FARRELL 83
JUST A PAR 63
Last updated 04/04/19

Right again, winner scoring 99.

Well done, went for glory with Milansbar, should have played safer for 2nd with Tiger Roll.

Well done all 3 of you.

So to clarify I am going to take on these 9 against the field:

ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99
CHASE THE SPUD    92
MILANSBAR (IRE)    99
BLAKLION    83 (60day adj 92)
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83 (60day adj 92)
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)

Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
That might be enough unless there's anything better?

I should have just stuck to the 90+ ones.  1st 4th & 5th to follow last year's 1st 2nd 4th & 5th.

Right again, winner scoring 99.

Well done, went for glory with Milansbar, should have played safer for 2nd with Tiger Roll.

Well done all 3 of you.

I should have just stuck to the 90+ ones.  1st 4th & 5th to follow last year's 1st 2nd 4th & 5th.

Right again, winner scoring 99.

Right again, winner scoring 99.