FleetFanatic

1.45 Notlongtilmay
2.25 Moon Hunter
3.00 You Wear It Well
3.35 Dashel Drasher
4.15 Kinondo Kwetu
5.15 Minella Trump
6.20 Aslukgoes

Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.

Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis

There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.

If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol

Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.

Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis

There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.

If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol

Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.

Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis

There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.

If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol

Offering just 6 places with multiple horses shorter than 10s & they scrap the offer for this year?
I'll bet elsewhere then.

 

No sign of a half stakes back with bet365 this year (yet) - it launched on the thursday last year...

Updated mine - there's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be...

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 
 
TOTAL
 MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
 

Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.

Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis

There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.

If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol

With 40 runners it is arguably the most difficult race to find the winner of. We should sympathise with those punters betting in 1929, there were 66 runners that year!
The race is run over 4 miles, 2 furlongs and 74 yards. There are 30 fences to navigate. It is open to horses aged 7 years or older and the off time is 17.15.
40 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 7 places which make this a good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Surprisingly for such a seemingly competitive race those horses at the top of the market perform very well. 5 of the last 8 winners have been in the top 4 in the forecast betting. They have generated a level stakes profit of 31 points at SP. From the remaining 278 runners there have been just 3 winners and a loss of 167 points.
Younger horses perform best. Those aged 7 or 8 have won 5 from 77 attempts with a profit of 38 points.
Horses should be relatively fresh. Those that last ran between 23 and 34 days have won 6 times from 108 attempts with a profit of 47 points.
The horse should have a good winning record. Those that have won at least 3 times in their last 10 runs have a record of 5 wins from 89 runs with a profit of 19 points.
Those horses that did not finish in the first 9 last time out have not won any races from 85 attempts.
 
3 horses fit these criteria.
 
NOBLE YEATS 9/1
GAILLARD DU MESNIL 14/1
LE MILOS 16/1
 
I suggest backing these each with bookmakers paying 6 places.
 
Noble Yeats won this last year.

1.45 Complete Unknown
2.20 Camprond
2.55 Inthepocket
3.30 French Dynamite
4.05 Al Dancer
4.40 Grey Downing
5.15 JPR One

Updated mine - there's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be...

Offering just 6 places with multiple horses shorter than 10s & they scrap the offer for this year?
I'll bet elsewhere then.

 

I've been waiting with anticipation, perhaps they've dropped it like the 4/1 TV offer

1.45 Stage Star
2.20 Greyval
2.55 Ahoy Senor
3.30 I like to Move It
4.05 Bennys King
4.40 The Last Day
5.15 Ici La Reine

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 
 
TOTAL
 MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
 

Updated mine - there's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be...

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 
 
TOTAL
 MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
 

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 
 
TOTAL
 MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
 

Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.

The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:

EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be

 
 
TOTAL
 MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
 

God luck all on Day 3 a.k.a. 'pick the big price nohopers day'

1.45 Beauport (res Serious Charges)
2.25 Colonel Mustard (res Good Risk At All)
3.00 Mick Pastor (res Third Time Lucki)
3.35 Koshari (res Champ)
4.15 Wishing and Hoping (res Scene Not Herd)
5.15 Death Duty (res Dingo Dollar)
6.20 Leave of Absence (res Blow Your Wad)

13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry
90
15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
90
 
25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson
99
30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill
90
31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon
92
37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle
99
 

To complete my 10, I've gone for 2 in the 80s & taken Mighty Thunder & Schoolboy Hours.

Thanks to half the stakes bck already, that's my quarter of the field the same as every year - get the winner & it;s a profit no matter what. Enough places & it's a profit or small loss on a fun afternoon.

Only the top 5? No ambition. I'm aiming for the top 10!
Seriously though, best these stats have done is find 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th & 6th in the same National. Not so good last year with just a couple of places mind.

We have 3 the same so I hope it's one of those for us both.  

Was just about to say the offer has started!

Was just about to say the offer has started!