Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best bet of the day 24/1/09 3.05 Lingfield - Mister New York - Banker 2 points to win. CD winner, first time blinkers, topweight Ran in a class 2 last time behind Nightjar at Southwell - beaten quite a long way but that was his first run at Southwell and the 7F trip was a bit short for him - probably better back here at 8F where he's won before. Drops back to class 4 today - got a wide draw but that's ok as he wants to be held up
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Re: Lingfield - 24Jan09 3.05 Mister New York CD winner, first time blinkers, topweight Ran in a class 2 last time behind Nightjar at Southwell - beaten quite a long way but that was his first run at Southwell and the 7F trip was a bit short for him - probably better back here at 8F where he's won before. Drops back to class 4 today - got a wide draw but that's ok as he wants to be held up
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Re: Lingfield - 24Jan09 Grrrrrrrrr..................I've followed Distinctly Game in it's last 2 runs when it finished 4th both times..........leave it alone today and it trots up at 6/1........This must happen to everybody..........I've got Randama Bay in the next which is similar, really thought it was going to win last time, but it got hammered..........just watch it scoot home today.........I hope it finishes last............
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Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Good luck with this Fintron..........:ok I do like systems based around CD winners.........I'm a big fan of CD winners ! I started a thread a while ago (but gave up !) based on sole CD winners in handicaps. The mistake I made was in not having a time limit either in time or number of runs. So I found myself including horses that had won a novice chase 6 years ago and hadn't won since..............:loon But I still think there's something in the idea of 'sole CD winners in handicaps'..........maybe limit it to a CD win in the last 12 months, mainly thinking of the jumps. Anyway, enouigh waffle.............I'll follow this with interest ! :ok
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Re: Bbotd - 23/1/09 Donc 3.40 - Coach Lane - EW Generally progressive type with 3 wins during 2008. Had a couple of runs this season and should be ready to strike now. Seems to act at any course and on any going and tends to win handicaps when he's up near the top of the weights as he is today. Has won in double figure fields so shouldn't be phased by 16 runners ( well 15 once the obligatory one is taken out..........:unsure ) Sam Thomas up for Venetia Williams.
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Re: Come Racing? Yeah, that's what I meant Billy............ I'm trying to think of the differences between on-course and exchange pros...........and one would be that a certain type of punter, ie the fluctuating percentages man, could make a living on betfair but not on-course. As i said, none of our regular posters would fall into that group because our posts are all about the horses............:)
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Re: Come Racing? To be honest I still haven't got to grips with exchanges, having never used one.............:loon But I reckon that if you're an old-fashionned punter who takes a view about a race and is looking to back winners, then maybe on course would be best for getting that edge that checking the paddock, the going down, the look and attitude of the horses. I'm probably wrong, but my impression of the big exchange players is that they're mathematicians first and horse fanciers second..........ie, making money by playing the changing odds rather than having a solid view about a winner............they can make money from their knowledge and expertise of the exchange and the horses could just be numbers 1 to 12.........I'm sure there are some exchange players like that........tho' obviously they don't post on here because we talk about the actual horses. Just one tip if you're playing the exchanges on the Dubai Carnival.........watch it on RUK not ATR..........I flicked between the two earlier today and was amazed to see a 2 or 3 second 'delay' on ATR compared to RUK..........if you're betting 'in running' you need to be watching RUK !
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Re: Kempton (eve) 22/1 Oh well, my 'Class 7 races' theory bites the dust......... Back to the drawing board............:unsure
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Re: Daily Double Thread Kemp 8.50 - Kinsman Kemp 9.20 - Ruwain EW double.......... Bit late, but theyre running late at Kemp !
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Re: Kempton (eve) 22/1 9.20 Ruwain Another penalised runner in a class 7 race having won last time out He's won two of his last 6, the other 13 runners have managed one win between them in their last six races added together. Again, the ability or aptitude to win a race must count for something in this grade !
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Re: Kempton (eve) 22/1 8.50 Kinsman Carries a penalty for winning last time out, but the ability to win a race must be a huge advantage in this class 7 company where none of the other 13 runners have managed a win in their last 6 runs. He's a CD winner as well having won here in Oct '07 The only other runner to have won here won a 5F event nearly 3 years ago
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Re: best bet of the day - 22/1/09 Wolv 5.30 - Pab Special - win Has a good record over this course and distance - 225521 in his 6 attemts, so it's a bit surprising that he's only turned up here once in the last 12 months. That was in December and he won. Is now running off a mark in the mid 50s but is well in if he recaptures his form of a year or so ago when he was running off 69 and 70 and was placed over todays CD. So - last time out winner, likes the CD, well handicapped on (fairly) recent form Gotta have a chance !
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Re: Bbotd 21/1/09 8.20 - Kempton - Gallantry - win Nice little Class 3 handicap with 8 runners I'd be surprised if the winner didn't come from the first 4 in the betting - Harald bluetooth, Totally Focussed, Resplendent Nova and Gallantry. The first 3 there are stepping up from class 4 and are all up in the weights, particularly harsh on Totally Focussed as he's gone up 3lbs for finishing second. Harald Bluetooth looks to be improving and was visually impressive winning at Wolves last time, but it's beginning to look like a very poor race for a class 4 with the second being whupped in a class 6 claimer next time out and others further back also well beaten next time. Resplendent Nova just seems a 7 furlong specialist - in his last 8 attempts at 8 furlongs the nearest he's finished to the winner is 6 lengths. Totally Focussed should turn around the form with Resplendent Nova from last time out, he's effective at 8 furlongs and loves Kempton. The only thing that puts me off him is going up the weights for not winning ! As opposed to those 3 who are up in class and up in the weights, Gallantry steps down from a creditable effort behind Aeroplane in a class 2 and he's down a pound in the weights. In his last 3 runs he's finished within 2L of Aeroplane, Councellor and Internationaldebut. He's pretty game and consistant, he's now just 2 lbs above his last winning mark and has a decent 3 lb claimer up, he should have the race run to suit him with a decent pace. Although he's never won at Kempton he has finished a head 2nd in a class 3 handicap, so presumably handles the track OK
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Re: Kempton (eve) 21/1/09 8.20 - Gallantry - win Nice little Class 3 handicap with 8 runners I'd be surprised if the winner didn't come from the first 4 in the betting - Harald bluetooth, Totally Focussed, Resplendent Nova and Gallantry. The first 3 there are stepping up from class 4 and are all up in the weights, particularly harsh on Totally Focussed as he's gone up 3lbs for finishing second. Harald Bluetooth looks to be improving and was visually impressive winning at Wolves last time, but it's beginning to look like a very poor race for a class 4 with the second being whupped in a class 6 claimer next time out and others further back also well beaten next time. Resplendent Nova just seems a 7 furlong specialist - in his last 8 attempts at 8 furlongs the nearest he's finished to the winner is 6 lengths. Totally Focussed should turn around the form with Resplendent Nova from last time out, he's effective at 8 furlongs and loves Kempton. The only thing that puts me off him is going up the weights for not winning ! As opposed to those 3 who are up in class and up in the weights, Gallantry steps down from a creditable effort behind Aeroplane in a class 2 and he's down a pound in the weights. In his last 3 runs he's finished within 2L of Aeroplane, Councellor and Internationaldebut. He's pretty game and consistant, he's now just 2 lbs above his last winning mark and has a decent 3 lb claimer up, he should have the race run to suit him with a decent pace. Although he's never won at Kempton he has finished a head 2nd in a class 3 handicap, so presumably handles the track OK
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Re: Daily Double Thread 5.20 Wolv - Romantic Verse 8.20 Kemp - Gallantry EW double
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Re: Wolverhampton 21/1/09 5.20 - Romantic Verse - EW With an odds on favourite and 9 runners, looking for an EW pick here. Romantic Verse is a dual CD winner. Lightly raced with just 9 career starts, decent stats of 2 wins and 2 places. Had a run 3 weeks ago after a break, during which she moved stables, and ran OK, beaten less than 4 lengths and looking as though the run would bring her on. Currently 25/1............looks an EW punt !
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Re: Daily Double Thread Southwell 1.30 - Run Free Southwell 2.00 - Mambo Sun EW double
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Re: Southwell 20/1/09 2.30 Southwell - Majuro - win Can't see beyond the favourite in this class 2 handicap Majuro has won here over 8F and there should be plenty of pace on today, so the step back to 7F shouldn't be a problem as long as Spencer keeps him up near the front. Spencer - don't fanny about 50 yards behind the pace pulling a double handful ! Market rivals Nightjar and Mozadaya have been impressive in lower grades and both are best over today's CD, but they both have a record of getting beat when they step up to class 2 company. Majuro finished 5L ahead of Mozadaya here on New years Day in a race that is working out well with the 3rd and 4th winning since, Majuro 2nd, Mozadaya 4th Internationaldebut and Mister New York have no Southwell form which is off-putting. Haajes is a five furlong horse Excusez Moi - well I picked him for a class 2 handicap on Jan 1st over 5F, which in retrospect was ridiculous as he invariably misses the break then runs on late. Today's trip should suit him a lot better, but he looks a difficult ride and I'd prefer to wait till he has a 'proper' jockey up By a process of elimaination that leaves Majuro..........:hope ps..........it so happens that the off time, 2.30, is the precise time that I should be climbing into the Dentist's chair for a rather worrying examination of what might be a major problem..........:cry:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day - 20/1/09 2.30 Southwell - Majuro - win Can't see beyond the favourite in this class 2 handicap Majuro has won here over 8F and there should be plenty of pace on today, so the step back to 7F shouldn't be a problem as long as Spencer keeps him up near the front. Spencer - don't fanny about 50 yards behind the pace pulling a double handful ! Market rivals Nightjar and Mozadaya have been impressive in lower grades and both are best over today's CD, but they both have a record of getting beat when they step up to class 2 company. Majuro finished 5L ahead of Mozadaya here on New years Day in a race that is working out well with the 3rd and 4th winning since, Majuro 2nd, Mozadaya 4th Internationaldebut and Mister New York have no Southwell form which is off-putting. Haajes is a five furlong horse Excusez Moi - well I picked him for a class 2 handicap on Jan 1st over 5F, which in retrospect was ridiculous as he invariably misses the break then runs on late. Today's trip should suit him a lot better, but he looks a difficult ride and I'd prefer to wait till he has a 'proper' jockey up By a process of elimaination that leaves Majuro..........:hope
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Re: Bbotd 19/1/09
It's a non-runner.........LITTLE SHILLING - 2.50 Hereford WIN -
Re: Bbotd 19/1/09 Hereford 2.50 - The Very Man - win Very testing ground at Hereford today shoud suit Jonjo's mudlark, who's a real stayer and loves the heavy ground. He can get a bit behind in his races and needs stoking up, so no better man than AP McCoy in the saddle - noticable that the the last two times the horse has won, AP has been 'up'........... Won a month ago so should be in decent nick and Jonjo is banging in the winners - 9 from his last 22 runners. Expect to see him coming from well back in the last few furlongs........
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Re: Daily Double Thread Good start ! Come on Dvinsky !...........:hope
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Re: Daily Double Thread 4.50 Kemp - Dvinsky 5.20 Kemp - Armaddy EW double.............
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Re: Kempton 18/1 5.20 - Ardmaddy I think this one might have just been got ready for today. Was in decent form in hudles races last winter and spring and was turned out to win one of these apprentice/amateur rider races on the flat at Wolves Had a long break then came back in December with a run in a class 5 handicap over today's CD, not put in the race, steadied in midfield and ran on when the race was over - so a pretty fresh horse with a run under it's belt Usually runs in class 4 or 5 races, dropped to this class 6 today, has a good overall career record with a win and 8 places from just 17 starts. In these amateur rider races I like to see a lady jockey with the same surname as the trainer...........figuring that the trainer puts a bit extra in to try and get a winner for their little princess............
Lingfield - 24Jan09
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Lingfield - 24Jan09 3.40 Lady Jane Digby Improving filly, CD winner, impressive winner last time out over CD in a similar class of race to today with Baylini 2nd but well beaten Only up 4 lbs for that win which seems very generous of the handicapper Couple of front runners in the race should set it up for her to swoop late