Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Southwell Tuesday 6th January 3.10 Rebel Duke Finished second in a much better race over CD last week, a class 2 race He was 6lbs out of the handicap that day, so effectively ran off 86. As he was joint bottom weight it means that every horse in that race was rated higher than the top rated horse in todays race. It was run in a fast time, topspeed of winner was 87, which is pretty hot for the AW. Rebel Duke was just headed in the last 50 yards and finished 2 lengths clear of the 3rd. Runs off his correct mark of 80 today He was beaten just over a length by The Tatling and neck by Northern Empire two runs ago but that was his second run back after a summer break and he appeared to still need the race. Now he's had 3 runs and put up a career best last time out he looks ready to win. I'd be amazed if he isn't favourite, although he's not showing as favourite in some of the forecasts..........:loon
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Re: Lingfield 5/1/09
I wouldn't fancy any of them next time out, even the winner.........:unsure My view, as posted above, was that none of them were really well handicapped or in good form, and that the favourite would win by default as the least badly one off of the five. Still, it's about opinions, so don't let me put you off !..........:ok ps.........I'm thinking only about handicaps.......if any of them were dropped to claimers or sellers, well.........have to have another look !Seemed like a good day on here then. Just watched that last race there, was tempted to get on Magic Warrior each way but decided against it since there was only 2 places, was the outsider, think it went off 12-1, thought it done really well to finish 3rd of 5, might be worth watching next time out? Anybody else have any thoughts on it? -
Re: Lingfield 5/1/09 Ling 3.45 - Majehar - win Uninspiring day, not much taking my fancy But i want to pick something and this chap looks fairly safe, tho' odds-on 2 non runners leaves just 5 going to post. Majehar's last 2 runs have been over CD of todays mark of 59 and both times he's been narrowly beaten by a lengh or so....... That usually puts me off as I reckon it indicates that the handicapper has him pegged. But in this race none of the others look particularly well in and as my chap is probably only a few pounds too high, he might win by default I'm not overly enthusiastic about it but there you go............:lol
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Re: Best bet of the day - Monday 5 January Ling 3.45 - Majehar - win Uninspiring day, not much taking my fancy But i want to pick something and this chap looks fairly safe, tho' odds-on 2 non runners leaves just 5 going to post. Majehar's last 2 runs have been over CD of todays mark of 59 and both times he's been narrowly beaten by a lengh or so....... That usually puts me off as I reckon it indicates that the handicapper has him pegged. But in this race none of the others look particularly well in and as my chap is probably only a few pounds too high, he might win by default I'm not overly enthusiastic about it but there you go............:lol
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Re: Lingfield 5/1/09 2.15 Lingfield - Arfinnit - ew Looks to have a decent chance today running off just 47 That's his lowest rating since he won here on May 07 off 45. Since then he's won off 48, 54 and 52 Course winner over 5 furlongs, has won at 6F elsewhere Had a three month break in late summer and has had two runs since. Last time out was noted running on over 5 furlongs and tho' he finished 6th was only beaten 2 and a bit lengths.
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Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Well done guys...........nice winner Fin ! :ok
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Re: Southwell 4/1/09 2.10 - Corking Races on the sand at Southwell are a slog at the best of times but with the extra harrowing to keep the frost out even the sand is officially described as 'riding slow', so this 14 furlongs will be a real test of stamina. Corking shouldn't have any problems on that score, her last run being a 2 length defeat over 17 furlongs at Bath on good to soft. That was off a rating of 53, runs off 49 today. She's never run at Southwell before so you have to trust that she'll act on the surface. Her best 3 runs on turf have been with cut in the ground, so hopefully she'll be OK Lightly raced, just 8 career runs and still a maiden, has been placed 3 times. Hasn't run for a couple on months - that might be an advantage for a test of stamina, at least she'll be fresh. She's a Montjeu filly !...........tho' obviously not one of his best Could be a good EW shot, currently 12/1 but I think it was 14/1 when I looked earlier. The money's down !.............:lol
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Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sunday 4 January 2.10 Southwell - Corking - win Races on the sand at Southwell are a slog at the best of times but with the extra harrowing to keep the frost out even the sand is officially described as 'riding slow', so this 14 furlongs will be a real test of stamina. Corking shouldn't have any problems on that score, her last run being a 2 length defeat over 17 furlongs at Bath on good to soft. That was off a rating of 53, runs off 49 today. She's never run at Southwell before so you have to trust that she'll act on the surface. Her best 3 runs on turf have been with cut in the ground, so hopefully she'll be OK Lightly raced, just 8 career runs and still a maiden, has been placed 3 times. Hasn't run for a couple on months - that might be an advantage for a test of stamina, at least she'll be fresh. She's a Montjeu filly !...........tho' obviously not one of his best
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 3/1/09 Kempton - 3.40 - Musical Script - win Several in with place chances here, but for the winner it looks to be between Musical Script and River Kirov They have similar profiles in that they're both in terrific form, both rising up the weights, both CD winners, both stepping up in grade to class 4 after wins in class 5 and 6 I'm going for Musical Script on the basis that his wins have been in better races than River Kirov and he's only up 3lbs from his last win whereas RK is up 6lbs. Musical Script has won here 4 times, RK just the once.
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Re: Kempton - 03Jan08 3.40 Musical Script - win Several in with place chances here, but for the winner it looks to be between Musical Script and River Kirov They have similar profiles in that they're both in terrific form, both rising up the weights, both CD winners, both stepping up in grade to class 4 after wins in class 5 and 6 I'm going for Musical Script on the basis that his wins have been in better races than River Kirov and he's only up 3lbs from his last win whereas RK is up 6lbs. Musical Script has won here 4 times, RK just the once.
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Re: Lingfield Sat 3rd Jan 1.45 - Whistledownwind - Win Difficult to crab the favourite, Premio Loco, but he is well odds on. He hasn't run for a few months and although he's won before after a break, his yard haven't been sending out many runners lately and you wonder if they're operating at full tilt. Mainly I just think it's worth taking him on at the odds. Whistledownthewind was very highly regarded at the beginning of the flat season, running Centennial to a neck in the Sandown Classic Trial. He was thought of as a 'Leger' horse but disappointed and was well beaten in the big race. It was a bit of a surprise to see him turn up in a 7 furlong handicap at Lingfield a few weeks ago and he went off at 15/2. But he ran a really eye-catching race, finishing like a train and just failing to get up by a neck. That was a good race, a class 2 handicap The extra furlong today should suit him and he's a classy horse. Could be a real superstar on the all-weather at a mile/10 furlongs. Trainer has had 2 winners and a second from 3 runners since Christmas. At the relative odds I reckon he's worth a chance against the favourite.
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Re: Lingfield Sat 3rd Jan 2.15 Princess Rose Anne - EW I think it's worth taking on the favourite, Sendreni, who's creeping up the weights for finishing second. My EW selection is a former Jim Bolger filly from Ireland. She's won over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown, she's won at Lingfield over 6 furlongs, she's 3lbs down in the weights since her last win, her trainer has had a couple of winners since Christmas, George Baker 'up', has only had 10 career runs so is open to improvement. Her last 4 runs have been over 5/6 furlongs, expect her to be beter returned to 7F. This race looks easier than her last 4 races - althouigh it's the same class 5 it's got lower rated animals in it. Currently 12/1
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Re: Tipsters Cheltenham Stats Thread !!! Thanks tipster............this should be interesting !
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Re: Wolverhampton 2/1/09 Oh well..........there could be a silver lining if the money comes for Dvinsky now, it might push out the prices of the ones we think might win ! :lol
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Re: Wolverhampton 2/1/09
I think Hold the Bucks is a good thing at 4/7 Skybet' date=' its 1/2 with some firms and IMO anything above 1/2 represents value in that race. Double Carpet a NR in the last. Could work to Dvinsky's advantage but he's still a little too high in the weights for me.[/quote'] Oh geez..........:loon I've based my race prediction for BBotD on the basis that Double Carpet and Dvinsky would 'do' each other............ Oh well, I can't change it now..............as you say, Dvinsky is probably too high in the weights to win and a slower pace will disadvantage the several horses who look like they need further........... I'll stick with Distinctly Game.......... -
Re: Wolverhampton 2/1/09 7.50 - Direct Debit - EW Think it's worth taking on the Irish raider who's favourite. His maiden win here was by 5 lengths but it looked weak with just 6 runners, with the 2nd favourite unseating his jockey at the start and with 2 of the others going off at 50/1 and 150/1 - I'm guessing that the value of the win has been over-rated. I think the ones up the top are probably in the handicappers grip now. Just Bond ran yesterday at Southwell in a class 2 race, didn't appear to handle the track, and should do a lot better here, but he hasn't won in his last 5 handicaps over todays CD despite having 7 CD wins to his name. Direct Debit is a CD winner. He spent most of the last year and half dropping down the handicap without winning unless he was dropped to claiming company. But his only real 'tonkings' were when he ran in class 2/3 races. He finished within 2 lengths on 6 occasions from marks between 82 and 87. Now he's down to 78. Won a CD claimer 2 runs ago and has changed stables. Consistant type on the whole, likes this CD, should be thereabouts
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Re: Wolverhampton 2/1/09 9.20 Wolv - Distinctly Game - Win With two out and out front runners taking each other on, this race should be set up for something to run on late and win The selection is now back down below his last winning mark after spending most of the last year rated in the 80s. More importantly he ran his best race for a while last time out, making headway and staying on in the final furlong He's best at 6F, acts on polytrack and has Catlin up The two front runners are Dvinsky and Double Carpet. Hopefully they'll scupper each other's chances Count Ceprano and Collingwood both want further than 6F, tho' the Count is pretty well handicapped and the race could be set up to suit a stamina runner. One to keep an eye on Princess Valerina looks to have been pegged by the handicapper and may want further Trimseltown seems to struggle when running in anything other than very poor races. Seems to be on the downgrade these days, tho' as a result is very well in on his form from a couple of years ago when he was winning at Newmarket and Newbury
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Re: Bbotd 2/1/09 9.20 Wolv - Distinctly Game - Win With two out and out front runners taking each other on, this race should be set up for something to run on late and win The selection is now back down below his last winning mark after spending most of the last year rated in the 80s. More importantly he ran his best race for a while last time out, making headway and staying on in the final furlong He's best at 6F, acts on polytrack and has Catlin up The two front runners are Dvinsky and Double Carpet. Hopefully they'll scupper each other's chances Count Ceprano and Collingwood both want further than 6F, tho' the Count is pretty well handicapped and the race could be set up to suit a stamina runner. One to keep an eye on Princess Valerina looks to have been pegged by the handicapper and may want further Trimseltown seems to struggle when running in anything other than very poor races. Seems to be on the downgrade these days, tho' as a result is very well in on his form from a couple of years ago when he was winning at Newmarket and Newbury
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ January 1st 1.00 - Southwell - Excusez Moi - EW Bit of a longshot here but today might just be the day to catch this fellow. He generally runs in Listed and Group races, which he's not quite good enough to win, but he has won at Listed level within the last year. If you look down to his last handicap, it was a pretty competitive affair, a Heritage handicap at Ascot with 25 runners, and he finished 4th He won first time out last year, a listed race at Lingield. He's changed stables since his last run and this is his first run at Southwell. He's a bit of an old campaigner, so these changes of scenery must just freshen him up a bit You've got to take it on trust that he'll act on the sand, but he has won on softish ground. As we all know, races at Southwell are a bit of a lottery..........would it really be a huge shock to see a 25/1 winner ?..............:unsure
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Re: Southwell 1/1/09 1.00 - Excusez Moi - EW Bit of a longshot here but today might just be the day to catch this fellow. He generally runs in Listed and Group races, which he's not quite good enough to win, but he has won at Listed level within the last year. If you look down to his last handicap, it was a pretty competitive affair, a Heritage handicap at Ascot with 25 runners, and he finished 4th He won first time out last year, a listed race at Lingield. He's changed stables since his last run and this is his first run at Southwell. He's a bit of an old campaigner, so these changes of scenery must just freshen him up a bit You've got to take it on trust that he'll act on the sand, but he has won on softish ground. As we all know, races at Southwell are a bit of a lottery..........would it really be a huge shock to see a 25/1 winner ?..............:unsure
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Re: New AW Thread Views Needed??????? I'll read it ! I've drifted over to the AW in the last couple of weeks..........just looking for a change of scenery !
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ December 2008 Well done mileni !...........:clap Thanks again to BH for running the comp fantastically well.........:ok Although I haven't managed to get my head in front in any month, I'm pretty chuffed to finish in profit after 170-odd selections.............:nana Well done to everyone who's taken part and made this such a terrific daily treat ! :ok
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Re: BBOTD + 31Dec08 Ling 3.30 - Southandwest - win I'm looking to oppose the favourite I Confess. Not only is he up in class and up in the weights but he also shouldn't get an uncontested lead here with one or two other confirmed front runners in the field. If he really is improving rapidly then fair enough, he should win in a field of largely out of form performers. The selection has at least been running fairly consistantly since turning up on the AW with a 4th, 2nd and 3rd in his 3 runs off marks of 76/77. Normally that would put me off as it indicates that the handicapper has him pegged (runs off 77 today). But I think he might find a bit more today. I think he can improve from his last run which was over 6 furlongs, back to 7 furlongs today. And his trainer, after a quiet spell, turned Sgt Shultz out to win easily a couple of days ago, so maybe the stable is about to strike top form. If he does improve a bit he's well handicapped on his best form I think a danger is Super Frank who at least showed some indication of a return to form with his best run for a while last time out. Another one who is well in when the form returns.
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Re: Lingfield + 31Dec08 3.30 - Southandwest I'm looking to oppose the favourite I Confess. Not only is he up in class and up in the weights but he also shouldn't get an uncontested lead here with one or two other confirmed front runners in the field. If he really is improving rapidly then fair enough, he should win in a field of largely out of form performers. The selection has at least been running fairly consistantly since turning up on the AW with a 4th, 2nd and 3rd in his 3 runs off marks of 76/77. Normally that would put me off as it indicates that the handicapper has him pegged (runs off 77 today). But I think he might find a bit more today. I think he can improve from his last run which was over 6 furlongs, back to 7 furlongs today. And his trainer, after a quiet spell, turned Sgt Shultz out to win easily a couple of days ago, so maybe the stable is about to strike top form. If he does improve a bit he's well handicapped on his best form I think a danger is Super Frank who at least showed some indication of a return to form with his best run for a while last time out. Another one who is well in when the form returns.
Bbotd 6/1/09
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Bbotd 6/1/09 3.10 Southwell - Rebel Duke - win Ran a cracker last time in a class 2 from 6 lbs out of the handicap over this CD Back off it's correct mark in a lower grade today CD winner, should be fighting fit after 3 runs back from his summer break I just hope he doesn't hit the front too early as he seems to get caught just before the line.........I'm worried about The Tatling coming late.....:loon But if Rebel Duke reproduces his run from last week he should have enough to win this...........