Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lingfield 14/1/09 Thick fog at Lingfield..........:unsure Hope it lifts...........
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Re: Great Leighs 13/1/09
Spencer held him up............:unsure he probably wouldn't have won anyway with the winner looking so impressive, but he never had a chance being held up.........2.40 - Distinctly Game - Win There's no Dvinsky here today and Distinctly Game might well get an uncontested lead - and he has a certain J P Spencer on board. I'd hope Spencer is capable of riding a front runner to best effect, tho' I know his reputation is for exaggerated holding up............:unsure -
Re: Great Leighs 13/1/09 2.40 - Distinctly Game - Win I think it's worth taking on the odds-on favourite, Milne Bay, as he's up in class and up in the weights. Distinctly Game ran poorly last time but he was taking on Dvinsky for the lead and kept with him for 5 furlongs until he cracked. They were both going too fast and set it up for a late runner. He's down in class and down 2 lbs in the weights today There's no Dvinsky here today and Distinctly Game might well get an uncontested lead - and he has a certain J P Spencer on board. I'd hope Spencer is capable of riding a front runner to best effect, tho' I know his reputation is for exaggerated holding up............:unsure
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Re: Southwell 13/1/09 2.00 - Archimboldo - EW Like the look of this one tho' it's really a bit of a fancy rather than the result of hours of form study..........:unsure He's a hurdler who's rated around 107 and has won recently off 101. That equates to 60s ratings on the flat and he gets in here off 49. His last 3 hurdle runs have been in class 3 races and although he's been well beaten it's big drop down to a class 6 race today if he can translate his hurdle form to the flat. He finished 4th in a good handicap hurdle at Aintree in October beaten only 8 lengths At least he shouldn't lack for stamina over this stiffish 2 miles. I expect a lot of horses won't be getting home. My main worry is that he's just too slow and will amble round in his own time but I fancy he might sneak into a place.
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Re: Southwell 13/1/09 1.30 Southwell - Bienheureux - Win CD winner who ran his best race for a while last time out, finishing 3rd over CD, beaten under 2 lengths, noted running on at the finish. That was a small field and slow paced race which wouldn't have suited him, can do better today in a big field with hopefully a better pace. He was 7lbs out of the handicap that day and runs off his correct mark today, so effectively he's 7 lbs lower and drops in class from a class 5 to a class 6 Has won off this mark and higher within the last year, so could be well handicapped if he's coming back to form
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Re: Bbotd 13/1/09 1.30 Southwell - Bienheureux - Win CD winner who ran his best race for a while last time out, finishing 3rd over CD, beaten under 2 lengths, noted running on at the finish. That was a small field and slow paced race which wouldn't have suited him, can do better today in a big field with hopefully a better pace. He was 7lbs out of the handicap that day and runs off his correct mark today, so effectively he's 7 lbs lower and drops in class from a class 5 to a class 6 Has won off this mark and higher within the last year, so could be well handicapped if he's coming back to form
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Monday 12th January 5.10 - Wolv - Mission Control - win Was going to have a day off today with the poor card at Wolves, but just noticed this one in the last I picked it last time when it won at 9/2 and I'm sticking with it. It's up in the weights and up in class which would normally put me off, but it won in great style and is a lightly raced horse which looked far too classy for a class 6. Up to class 5 today but it's a narrow handicap with only 3 pounds between the field if you count weight-for-age allowances Mission Control has the look of one of those horses who can put 3 or 4 handicap wins back to back before the assessor grabs it. Money coming in for Spencer's mount which means mine might go off at 2/1
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Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A
That's good............never noticed that before............ You can play around with 'filters' and other things to show different information etc...........neat !I was aked where to find the OR of horses, thought i'd post a link for future reference. http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/media/ratings/ -
Re: Great Leighs 11/1/09 Nice one Fin !.......... Looking at the full race result I see that First Order was pipped for 3rd..........they called him 3rd on ATR. Not that it matters much now............ Despite his age and hundreds of races, I think Dvinsky is still improving ! I also agree that Anne Stokell is useless.........my head was turned by her winning on Pawan in the class 2 sprint at Southwell on 1st Jan.......that was the first AW race I studied in depth after deciding to dump the jumps for a while !..........also she usually puts up Overweight if she's on a lightly weighted horse.
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Re: Great Leighs 11/1/09
Yeah..........but it still beat Falconry !..........:lolWouldn't have been a bad combination FC there, close but no :dude. Unlucky Trotter. Did you see Mogok Ruby in the parade ring?, anyone considering backing it would have put their cash back in their pocket as it was like a bucking bronco -
Re: Great Leighs 11/1/09 1, 2, 3...........wrong order..........:wall
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sun 11/1/09 2.30 Great Leighs - First Order - win Only CD winner in the field and is in good form. His second last time to Rebel Duke was a cracking run as that one had previously finished 2nd in a Class 2 on New Year Day That last run was over 5 furlongs at Southwell and he was beaten half a length off todays mark. I think he should improve by at least half a length by returning to six furlongs here
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Re: Great Leighs 11/1/09 2.30 - First Order - win Only CD winner in the field and is in good form. His second last time to Rebel Duke was a cracking run as that one had previously finished 2nd in a Class 2 on New Year Day That last run was over 5 furlongs at Southwell and he was beaten half a length off todays mark. I think he should improve by at least half a length by returning to six furlongs here Dvinsky appears to have a much better chance now that Epic Odyssey is a non runner. He should be able to get an uncontested lead. I'm not too worried about the rise in weights, he's generally been progreesive over the last year in that every handicap win has been off a higher mark than the last one, so he's won off 67, 70, 75, 77, 79........even with his latest rise he can still run in class 4 races, so i don't think that's a problem. Just not sure he'll be able to 'get away' around this more galloping track. I think an uncontested lead around a tight track is probably what he needs. I'd like to see him win, 'cos I like front runners.........:unsure The other one high up in the betting is Falconry. She runs off 77 on her AW debut. Considered good enough to run in a Group One at 2, was mostly well thrashed in handicaps last summer off marks around 80-82. Her best run was beaten 2L off 82, which means she probably ran to around todays mark. Hasn't run for nearly 4 months and was running over 7/8 furlongs last year.The trainer ran one with a similar profile at Lingfield yesterday and that one got well beaten. Of the outsiders I think Count Ceprano might run a big race. He's pretty well handicapped but really needs further. The pace of the race and the galloping track might just play into his hands for a late challenge. I'm just hoping that First Order will get first run on him and hold on at the line 1 First Order 2 Dvinsky 3 Count Ceprano
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Re: Bbotd 10/1/09 Lingfield - 2.50 - Turn On The Style - Win One of the top AW front-runners, has won 4 from 6 at Lingfield, the sharp track suits his running style ideally With one of the other front runners in the race, Mr Lambros, now a NR his task has become a bit easier. He has won a handicap off a mark of 101 which is the highest rating any of these have won handicaps off and although this is a conditions race it shows that he's well up with these in terms of ability. He's a real trier - unlike some front runners he does'nt drift back through the field if he's headed - he gets stuck in Aeroplane is obviously a big danger as he's in spanking form. All the pundits say he should be fine back at 6 furlongs but this is a pretty tight 6 furlongs with a top front runner in the field. Will he be able to lay up close enough to mount a challenge ? Will Hayley have to get the whip out ?.........and will he get up to his old tail-flashing, hanging ways if she does ?
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Re: Kempton 10/1/09 3.15 - Southandwest I assumed he wouldn't run after running yesterday, but looks like he is going to I had him yesterday and last week and he's won his last 2 races at 9/2 and 4/1. He's got another penalty to carry today but I don't think that will stop him. He's just in cracking form, has really taken to the AW and this is probably his last chance at Class 4 level before the handicapper weights him out of the grade Drawn out wide but that shouldn't be a problem as he's a hold up horse.
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Re: Lingfield - 10Jan08 2.50 - Turn On The Style One of the top AW front-runners, has won 4 from 6 at Lingfield, the sharp track suits his running style ideally With one of the other front runners in the race, Mr Lambros, now a NR his task has become a bit easier. He has won a handicap off a mark of 101 which is the highest rating any of these have won handicaps off and although this is a conditions race it shows that he's well up with these in terms of ability. He's a real trier - unlike some front runners he does'nt drift back through the field if he's headed - he gets stuck in Aeroplane is obviously a big danger as he's in spanking form. All the pundits say he should be fine back at 6 furlongs but this is a pretty tight 6 furlongs with a top front runner in the field. Will he be able to lay up close enough to mount a challenge ? Will Hayley have to get the whip out ?.........and will he get up to his old tail-flashing, hanging ways if she does ?
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Re: Lingfield - 10Jan08 3.20 - Art Man Sgt Shultz did me a big favour when he romped home at 12/1 last time and shot me up the BBotD table.........but I'm still going to desert him today ! That race at GL was run to suit him with a tearaway front runner dragging them along and letting his stamina come into play. On this tighter track and with not much front running pace in the race, I don't fancy him today. The one I do fancy is Art Man. He's the only runner who has won off a higher mark than he runs off today, he's a CD winner, and he ran his best race for a while last time out over an inadequate trip Of the others - Sgt Shultz, John Terry - need further Aviso, Baylini - out of form Naomh Geilais - poorly h'capped for running in Group races Philatelist - looks OK if fighting fit Lady Jane Digby - Interesting runner So I reckon Art Man to win, Lady Jane Digby and Philatelist for the places.
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Re: Bbotd 9/01/09 3.05 Wolv - Southandwest - win Two last time out winners carrying 6 lb penalties oppose each other in this race The likely favourite is Nightjar but I'm not backing him. Perhaps the penaly won't be a problem but his last 2 wins have been at Southwell, the second one on 'soft' ground and he's never won on polytrack (tho' has run OK in a lower grade race). He's also run a lot over 8/9 furlongs so I'm thinking that it's his stamina at 7 furlongs that wins him races rather than his speed. Will need a career best running off 85 with the penalty. Sourhandwest's penalty only takes him up to a mark of 83 and he's already won off 82 last summer. Taken well to the AW, has won on polytrack over this trip last time out If the race pans out as I expect I don't think there'll be a fierce gallop and it'll be a sprint finish. I'll take Southandwest to outsprint Nightjar
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Re: Bbotd 8/1/09 3.25 Great Leighs - Came Back - win Gonna take a chance on this one in a race where every other horse has to put up a career best to win. Came Back runs off 85 today and won a handicap off 90 over CD back in May last year - that was his last run in a handicap before he ran a couple of days ago. Since then he's been running in conditions races, sellers and claimers - connections obviously felt he was incapable of winning handicaps from marks in the 90s His first handicap run since his win off 90 was a couple of days ago and he was well beaten at Southwell. However the trainer put up a decent excuse - he didn't handle the 'soft' ground on the fibresand. Should be OK at Great Leighs on the firmer surface. Trainer in decent form with a winner and a second from 4 runners in the last week. Should be an EW price but now the field is down to 7, might as well go for the win.
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Re: BHA : Why they ran badly? Good Database There's one running tomorrow in the big race at GL..........Come Back. I've been looking at this race for BBotD and had written off Come Back because it was beaten 10L at Southwell yesterday.......... Trainer says it was unsuited by the slow ground on the track........ Should be OK at GL then !
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Re: BHA : Why they ran badly? Good Database Thanks...........that's potentially useful.......... The 'Patternform' site has a link to this page but every time I've ever clicked it I get 'Page Not Available'..............:spank Makes a change to actually see it............:lol
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Re: Bbotd 7/1/09 2.25 Kempton - Sofia's Star - win Only 5 runners now in the claimer and it wouldn't be a shock if any of the 5 won, there doesn't seem to be a lot between them Sofias Star is a CD winner and has recent good form in handicaps, with a win and a second in his last 2 runs. He has the huge benefit of Jim Crowley in the saddle who seems to be establishing himself as the best jockey at Kempton. Electric Warrior mainly wins over 8 furlongs - Jewelled Dagger mainly wins over 9 furlongs. This sharp 7 might be against them Can't find much wrong with Desert Dreamer, looks to have a good chance. His last 3 races have been similar to this one and he couldn't win them. Dascombe's runners since Christmas have been going poorly, even the fancied ones. So I'll pass him over for today Dressed To Dance has no worthwhile form on the all weather and is coming back from a break with no pattern of running well fresh. So I'm going with Crowley to boot the 'Star' home...........:ok
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Re: Worrying Trend Or Betting Tool? Hi guys...........interesting discussion ! I don't have a lot to contribute as, to be honest, I'm not much of a better and tend not to take much notice of the 'market'........... I also don't have a Betfair account so can't see the minute by minute changes during the day............ But it strikes me that betfair itself is probably resposible for exagerating price movements both 'in' and 'out'........... I imagine people sitting on their comps looking at the Betfair market and getting on or laying as soon as something starts moving..........with thousands of people doing this there could be a 'snowball effect'.......a couple of people back a horse, 10 others see the price fall and jump in, another hundred think 'blimey, that one's steaming, so they jump in etc etc............. Could that be an explanation of why price movements seem more volarile than they used to ?...............:unsure
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Re: Southwell Tuesday 6th January There seems to be an awful lot of racing at Southwell.............. I've only been looking at the AW for a few weeks but my impression is that Southwell has as many race days as the other 4 AW tracks added together.........they've had 4 race days this year and it's only the 6th January............ It's a bit tempting to just ignore Southwell and cut your form study by half............:ok On the other hand I do like tracks which suit course specialists as it gives you an angle to pick some outsiders against favourites with no course form............. I'll stick with it for the time being, but I prefer the other tracks........
Daily Double Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Daily Double Thread I'll have a crack at an EW double at decent odds........ Ling 3.25 - Bookiesindex Boy Ling 3.55 - Rightcar Dominic If we were doing this for real money, I'd probably try for two short price favourites............:unsure