Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lingfield ~ Tuesday 10th February. 4.40 - Lingfield - Compton Classic - win Only 4 runners line up for this 6 furlong handicap, so it could be a muddle of a race and possibly one to leave alone. However the first and second favourites as I type this both look vulnerable and the third favourite looks a decent bet.The favourite as of now is Compton's Eleven. He hasn't won over 6 furlongs for 18 months and that was on a stiff track. Usually runs over 7F these days. And he's often seen running on late over 7F, so the drop back to 6F in a small field may not suit him at all. On the plus side he does look well handicapped off 75 having won off 81 last summer. And he's dropping down in class. Reason enough for him to be favourite, I just don't think he'll be affective over this sharp 6 furlongs. Second favourite is Cornus. He's also a 7 furlong horse.He hasn't won over 6F for 16 months and that was on soft ground. He's also not badly handicapped on some of his 'place' form, but he's never won off a mark this high. The outsider of the party is Thoughtsofstardom. By contrast to the first two, he looks like a 5 furlong horse, having never won over 6F. He also loks to be in the handicappers grip having won a couple of races in December and shot up nearly a stone in the ratings. The only 6F horse in the field appears to be my selelction - Compton Classic. He ran well over CD 2 runs ago when a neck 2nd. Last time ran back at 5F and was caught a bit flat footed then ran on again late. Back at 6F today on a course he ran well at last time here, should have a good chance. Has to improve a bit as he's 3 lbs higher than his run here. But I'll go with the others being unsuited and performing below par
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Re: Best bet of the day 10/02 4.40 - Lingfield - Compton Classic - win Only 4 runners line up for this 6 furlong handicap, so it could be a muddle of a race and possibly one to leave alone. However the first and second favourites as I type this both look vulnerable and the third favourite looks a decent bet. The favourite as of now is Compton's Eleven. He hasn't won over 6 furlongs for 18 months and that was on a stiff track. Usually runs over 7F these days. And he's often seen running on late over 7F, so the drop back to 6F in a small field may not suit him at all. On the plus side he does look well handicapped off 75 having won off 81 last summer. And he's dropping down in class. Reason enough for him to be favourite, I just don't think he'll be affective over this sharp 6 furlongs. Second favourite is Cornus. He's also a 7 furlong horse.He hasn't won over 6F for 16 months and that was on soft ground. He's also not badly handicapped on some of his 'place' form, but he's never won off a mark this high. The outsider of the party is Thoughtsofstardom. By contrast to the first two, he looks like a 5 furlong horse, having never won over 6F. He also loks to be in the handicappers grip having won a couple of races in December and shot up nearly a stone in the ratings. The only 6F horse in the field appears to be my selelction - Compton Classic. He ran well over CD 2 runs ago when a neck 2nd. Last time ran back at 5F and was caught a bit flat footed then ran on again late. Back at 6F today on a course he ran well at last time here, should have a good chance. Has to improve a bit as he's 3 lbs higher than his run here. But I'll go with the others being unsuited and performing below par
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Re: Kempton 9/2/09 It's a class 6, Fin.......... And a poor one !...........:unsure
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sunday 8/2/09 Kempton - 3.40 - Philario - EW A rare Listed race on the AW The horse with the class 1 form in the book is Philario. Won the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes here at Kempton as a two year old then later was beaten just over a length in the group 2 Mill Reef stakes Last year as a 3 year old he was beaten about 5 lengths in the 'Free Handicap' on seasonal debut then went backwards a bit. Was tried back at 5 furlongs and had a couple of runs on soft ground, which didn't seem to suit him despite being a 'Captain Rio' There is a bit of hope that he might just be coming back to form. His last run was his best for a while, 2nd to Banknote in a Class 3 conditions race at Lingfield on his first try at 8 furlongs. He beat Orchard Supreme by 5L in that race. In a race where most of them have failed when stepped up to Listed grade he has good EW chance
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Re: Kempton 8/2/09 3.40 - Philario - EW A rare Listed race on the AW The horse with the class 1 form in the book is Philario. Won the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes here at Kempton as a two year old then later was beaten just over a length in the group 2 Mill Reef stakes Last year as a 3 year old he was beaten about 5 lengths in the 'Free Handicap' on seasonal debut then went backwards a bit. Was tried back at 5 furlongs and had a couple of runs on soft ground, which didn't seem to suit him despite being a 'Captain Rio' There is a bit of hope that he might just be coming back to form. His last run was his best for a while, 2nd to Banknote in a Class 3 conditions race at Lingfield on his first try at 8 furlongs. He beat Orchard Supreme by 5L in that race. In a race where most of them have failed when stepped up to Listed grade he has good EW chance.
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Re: Kempton 8/2/09 2.40 Difficult to see why La Estrella is currently around 3/1. It's won 5 claimers in a row and has been odds-on for the last 3. Why suddenly 3/1 in a similar race ? Can this race be so much tougher than it's last 3 ?. The only thing I can see in it's record is that it's never run at Kempton. Whoever usually backs it doesn't seem to be backing it today. I'm really miffed with the 2 non-runners putting the field down to 7 because the one I really fancied was an EW shot on Friends Hope. Third run back after a break and being 8 years old would probably need a couple of runs to get the old joints and muscles tuned up. First race back she was beaten about 4L by a decent sort in Mozadaya over an inadequate trip. Stepped up to 12F next time I put her up EW on BBotD at 20/1 and she naturally finished 4th............:@.............but she was beaten less than 2L. The 2 that look 'well in' at the weights are Kings Head and Bois Joli. Kings head - just wonder if this trip might be too sharp for him nowadays as he seems to struggle to get going and runs on late when the race is over. So........I'll take on the 2 favourites and suggest Bois Joli and Friends Hope. And damn those non-runners !
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Re: Ratings Plus Cheers mate.......... I always find these ratings fascinating, even if I don't use them I'll check how you get on at Kempton............ I often look at the Massey ratings after the races to see how he got on..........I don't like to look at them before the racing in case it affects my judgment !............... If that makes sense !..................:unsure
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Re: Lingfield 7/2/09 :ok I think I'll have to give up on Formation now..........these neck-neck-neck finishes could give you a heart attack............:loon Mind, it's about time a 'neck' went my way.............:unsure
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Re: best bet of the day - Sat 7/2/09 3.35 Lingfield - Formation - win Several of these ran against each other over CD last time and Formation won the race in a finish of necks. The turnaround in weights taken literally would put him behind Lady Jane Digby, Baylini & maybe Internationaldebut as well But that was only Formation's second run back from a break and there's reason to think he can improve for the run and confirm placings with those behind him. The last time he had a break he came back and improved for 3 successive races after his comeback before flattening out again. Trainer has come into fantastic form - last 14 days - 9 runners, 4 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds. Of the ones who weren't in that race last time, Ace Of Hearts probably wants a shorter trip, John Terry wants a longer trip, Philatelist looks a bit high in the weights I'm a bit worried about Al Muheer but only 'cos of the regard in which I hold Clive Brittain - love him ! - but the horse's best form has been over 6/7 furlongs and 1 win from 19 starts doesn't scream 'danger'. He is being backed though as is Ace of Hearts (Pricewise pick !)
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Re: Lingfield 7/2/09 3.35 Lingfield - Formation - win Cracking race - I see we're all going for different picks !.......... Several of these ran against each other over CD last time and Formation won the race in a finish of necks. The turnaround in weights taken literally would put him behind Lady Jane Digby, Baylini & maybe Internationaldebut as well But that was only Formation's second run back from a break and there's reason to think he can improve for the run and confirm placings with those behind him. The last time he had a break he came back and improved for 3 successive races after his comeback before flattening out again. Trainer has come into fantastic form - last 14 days - 9 runners, 4 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds. Of the ones who weren't in that race last time, Ace Of Hearts probably wants a shorter trip, John Terry wants a longer trip, Philatelist looks a bit high in the weights I'm a bit worried about Al Muheer but only 'cos of the regard in which I hold Clive Brittain - love him ! - but the horse's best form has been over 6/7 furlongs and 1 win from 19 starts doesn't scream 'danger'. He is being backed though as is Ace of Hearts (Pricewise pick !)
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Re: Wolverhampton 6/2/09 Hmm..........I was sure Stoic Leader got 3rd.........they've given it to Giddywell.........:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day Feb 6 7.20 Wolves - Top Seed - EW Still 8 runners left, so I'm looking at another big EW price. This is his 3rd run back after a six month break. His 2 'warm up' races have been here over 9 furlongs and now he's stepped up to 12 he could be ready to put in a performance. Timeform noted that he should come on for the run last time out. At 8 years old he probably would need a couple of runs after a long break. Has won over 11F and 12F before, has won on polytrack at Kempton
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Re: Wolverhampton 6/2/09 7.20 Top Seed - EW Still 8 runners left, so I'm looking at another big EW price. This is his 3rd run back after a six month break. His 2 'warm up' races have been here over 9 furlongs and now he's stepped up to 12 he could be ready to put in a performance. Timeform noted that he should come on for the run last time out. At 8 years old he probably would need a couple of runs after a long break. Has won over 11F and 12F before, has won on polytrack at Kempton
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Re: Wolverhampton 6/2/09 6.50 Stoic Leader - EW This is an old exposed horse, 9 years old and 145 runs ! - :loon However he does run here off a mark of 60 having won a handicap off 70 as recently as May last year. He spent the rest of the summer running in class 3 and 4 events without success, was beaten again dropped to class 5 (running off 71), had a pop over the hurdles then was put away for a break in September. This is his first run since - here he is in a class 6 and 11 lbs down since his last flat handicap. What I like though is his trainers recent record - only 2 runners in the last 2 weeks and they've won at 14/1 and 2nd at 25/1, both coming back off breaks and both having been well beaten last time out. I see a pattern !...................:hope
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Re: Wolverhampton 6/2/09 Meeting goes ahead !
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Re: Wolverhampton 6/2/09 They're Inspecting at the moment..............
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Re: Best bet of the Day 5 Feb Phew............I needed that winner after about 20 consecutive losers...... :loon Well done lads with the other winners !
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Re: Taunton 5/2 Taunton 3.50 - Borero - EW Happy to take on the 2 market leaders here. Now that McCoy has been re-routed and rides Adare Prince, his odds will probably tumble as he's been considered a bit trcky and McCoy won on him last time out. Up 7lbs for that win which was a 'first time blinkers' win. Will they work second time ? Also - his best form has been on flat galloping tracks, not sure Taunton will suit him. Likely favourite is Pistol Desbois but his chase form has been poor since he came to the UK - 2 runs, fell and 4th, making bad blunders. His hurdle form looks pretty good but can he jump ? Borero comes here from a better race at Newbury, finished 4th beaten 12L He's lightly raced with only 5 UK starts to his name, won his only race in this class and has won in a higher class. Both his wins have been on RH sharpish tracks like Taunton. In that race at Newbury he was noted as going to the right from 3 out, so it may be that he's just better going right-handed, in which case the Newbury run was pretty decent. First time cheekpieces on today.
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Re: Best bet of the Day 5 Feb Taunton 3.50 - Borero - EW Happy to take on the 2 market leaders here. Now that McCoy has been re-routed and rides Adare Prince, his odds will probably tumble as he's been considered a bit trcky and McCoy won on him last time out. Up 7lbs for that win which was a 'first time blinkers' win. Will they work second time ? Also - his best form has been on flat galloping tracks, not sure Taunton will suit him. Likely favourite is Pistol Desbois but his chase form has been poor since he came to the UK - 2 runs, fell and 4th, making bad blunders. His hurdle form looks pretty good but can he jump ? Borero comes here from a better race at Newbury, finished 4th beaten 12L He's lightly raced with only 5 UK starts to his name, won his only race in this class and has won in a higher class. Both his wins have been on RH sharpish tracks like Taunton. In that race at Newbury he was noted as going to the right from 3 out, so it may be that he's just better going right-handed, in which case the Newbury run was pretty decent. First time cheekpieces on today.
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Just announced - tonight's meeting abandoned......... Snow on track !
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Re: Best bet of the day - 4th Feb Well done lads !.............:ok Kempton 8.20 - Southandwest - win This one has done me proud on the thread with 2 wins at 9/2 in December and January and I'm hoping he'll do me a favour for the third month running.......... He is creeping up the handicap because of his wins but is in cracking form and is now getting back to the same mark he was competitive off on the flat last year. Seven furlongs is his ideal trip and the race should be set up nicely for him with Dvinsky and a couple of other front runners in the field. Just hope something takes Dvinsky on or he would be a big danger from his draw. Trafalgar Square has a similar profile to the selection - in terrific form, rising up the handicap but still only rated at around the mark he's reached before. I'm only passing him over because his last win looked soft and much less competitive than Southandwest's last run where he finished an unlucky 3rd.
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Re: Lingfield 04 Feb The Life website appears to have removed the 'Latest Odds' column from their racecards.............:@
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Re: Best Bet of the Day-Feb 2nd Woo Hoo............first day for nearly 3 weeks that I haven't had a loser on BBotD !! :nana:nana:nana :lol:lol
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Re: Southwell ~ Sunday 1st February. 1.20 Southwell - West End Lad - win Won over CD last time with the field fairly well spread out behind him. He's now up in class and up in the weights, which isn't an ideal profile, but although the last race was a class 6 and this is a class 5, there's not much between the two races. Will have to produce another career best after last time but looks to be on the upgrade. Six years old, but relatively lightly raced as he didn't start running till he was 4
Best bet of the day 11/2/09
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best bet of the day 11/2/09 Lingfield 3.10 - Teasing - Win Has won it's last 2 races and drops back to claiming company after winning a class 4 handicap under a penalty last time out. Main doubt is the trip as he's been running over further than a mile - this probably explains why he isn't favourite at the moment, tho' his odds are coming down and he might be favourite by race time. Has a good turn of foot for a low grade horse and that might stand him in good stead over this shorter trip.