Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Kempton 18/1 4.50 Divinsky I can only see two winners of this race depending on how it's run. River Kirov, currently 11/8 and Dvinsky, currently 10/1 Both CD winners, both in cracking form, both up in the weights, both have won in class 4 before My last 3 picks for BBotD, Ivory Silk, Princess Valerina and Smokey Ryder, have all been seeming 'good things' and favourites in AW sprints, and they all got beat. So I'm going back to trying to find one at a bigger price to beat the favourite. Dvinsky fits the bill today !
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Re: Kempton 18/1 2.20 Just The Lady Assuming she's fit after a 3 month break she'll take all the catching here She's a very speedy filly in low grade races and just pops out of the gate and goes. In this small field I expect her to get an uncontested lead and leave 'em for dead.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 17/1/09 Ling 2.20 - Smokey Ryder - win Going for a 5 timer today, has already won in class 4 handicap company and won with something in hand last time out, with 2 of todays rivals well behind. Is up 5 lbs for that last win but that's probably not enough to stop him. As a curiosity his run of 4 wins have come one each at the 4 polytrack venues, obviously he ain't got a track preference. Main rival Hellbender is up in class and up 7lbs in the weights for winning what looked like a fairly soft class 5 handicap last time. Been money for Five Star Junior who makes his handicap debut off a mark of 75. He ran in a couple of nurseries last year off lower marks and got beat and he won a class 6 maiden last time out. This is a step up in class and I reckon he'll need to improve a bit to win off 75.
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Re: BBOTD - 16th January 2009
Nice one ! 8/1 winner.........:nana:nana:nana6.50 Wolverhampton Templetuohy Max CD winner last month and a big price today. Hoping to make up some ground on the leaders. Could have a chance at a price in a wide open race. 1 pt win -
Re: Wolverhampton (eve) 16/1/09 8.20 Wolves - Princess Valerina - win Looked quite impressive last time when scooting clear of Dvinsky to win a similar handicap over todays CD. Up 5 lbs for that, but she won pretty decisively by over 2 lengths and looks to be on the upgrade The danger looks to be Mrs Penny, the ex-Aussie horse with only 1 run in the UK. Last time out she finished a length behind Dvinsky, again over todays CD. That was her first run for 10 months and first run in the northern hemishere, so she could come on a bundle and be really well handicapped off 80. She had finished 6th in a Group 2 in Aus. I'm hoping she'll 'bounce' after her first outing............:unsure Peter's Storm should take them along, but he's no Dvinsky and I can't see him getting away from them The pace shouldn't be fast enough to bring Count Ceprano into the race. I've got my eye on him but I don't think tonight will be his night, he really wants further or a big field strongly run race at 6 furlongs. Qadar was winning off marks off 100 two years ago and runs off 77 here, but his decline seems to be permanent.
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Re: BBOTD - 16th January 2009 8.20 Wolves - Princess Valerina - win Looked quite impressive last time when scooting clear of Dvinsky to win a similar handicap over todays CD. Up 5 lbs for that, but she won pretty decisively by over 2 lengths and looks to be on the upgrade The danger looks to be Mrs Penny, the ex-Aussie horse with only 1 run in the UK. Last time out she finished a length behind Dvinsky, again over todays CD. That was her first run for 10 months and first run in the northern hemishere, so she could come on a bundle and be really well handicapped off 80. She had finished 6th in a Group 2 in Aus. I'm hoping she'll 'bounce' after her first outing............:unsure Peter's Storm should take them along, but he's no Dvinsky and I can't see him getting away from them The pace shouldn't be fast enough to bring Count Ceprano into the race. I've got my eye on him but I don't think tonight will be his night, he really wants further or a big field strongly run race at 6 furlongs. Qadar was winning off marks off 100 two years ago and runs off 77 here, but his decline seems to be permanent.
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Re: Daily Double Thread 7.20 Wolves - Randama Bay 9.20 Wolves - Hyde Lea Flyer EW double - both are 7 runner races so will need first 2 finishes.......
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Re: Wolverhampton (eve) 16/1/09 7.20 - Randama Bay I don't normally look at claimers but this horse jumped out of the page at me..............:loon Last time out he finished 2nd in a class 4 handicap over CD behind Harald Bluetooth and ahead of Just Bond. 'Harald' is being talked off as a Dubai horse and is among the ante-post favourites for the Lincoln. Just Bond is a reliable yardstick with half a dozen CD wins to his name. Drops down to a class 6 claimer today and is showing at 7/1 on the latest odds............can't believe he's not favourite ! Even on 'official ratings' he's second best in behind Silver Hotspur, who' a Southwell horse............
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Re: Lingfield 16/1/09 Well done veresi..........:ok 2.55 The Cayterers Several of these have recent form with Southandwest in decent class 4 handicaps and are dropping back to this class 5 today The Cayterers finished a short head behind Southandwest at Kempton and can improve back here at Lingfield where it's a CD winner Should be an EW price !
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Re: Daily Double Thread
both placed.........12/1 and 9/2..........:nana Double Spectre was really well backed - I think it was 15/2 when I posted an hour before the 'off'............it came with a double handful to win the race then found nothing and was eased before the line...........I thought the fourth was going to catch it !................:loon Jockey would have been in the doodah if it had............GL 6.50 - Leading Edge GL 7.20 - Double spectre EW double............... -
Re: Daily Double Thread GL 6.50 - Leading Edge GL 7.20 - Double spectre EW double...............
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Re: Southwell 15/1/09 Hard luck Spooner..........that's a tough day at the coalface ! Just noticed how well the topweights and/or joint-topweights have done in the handicaps today winning 4 out of 5......... Whiskey Creek - 11/2 (top-weight) Hurricane coast - 10/1 (joint top weight) Mozadaya - 13/8 (joint top weight) Indian Diva - 17/2 (top-weight)
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Thu 15/1/09 Southwell 2.30 - Friends Hope - win Only 6 runners in this handicap but 3 of them are comfirmed front runners. If they take each other on this could be set up for something coming from off the pace. The selection gets further than a mile and will be staying on at the end Hasn;t run for 4 months but won first time out last winter on the AW and her trainer had a winner last week coming off a 2 month break, so he knows how to get them ready. Friends Hope was generally progressive last season, winning four rimes between December and June, then went off the boil. Hopefully the break will have freshened her up
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Re: How important is trainer form?
.........add that bit to my post above !.........:D I guess the RTF fugures are pretty useful 'if' you use the RPR as a guide........ eg you look at the top rated on RPR and see that the trainer has a 100% RTF...........then you might reckon that the horse should run up to it's rating........... conversely if his TRF is only 10% you might think 'well, that one is top rated, but he's not likely to run up to that rating'........ Personally I rarely, if ever, use RPR or RTF...........I just tend to look at the 'Life' - last 14 days........and see if the trainer has had any winners and in particula I look at his short price runners and see how they did........I'm not interested in how his 100-1 shots performed !Basically the rtf "ran to form" figure in the Racing Post is the percentage of horses that have run within 5lbs of the race card Racing Post rating in the last 14 days. -
Re: How important is trainer form?
It's the % of a trainers runners that run up to or above their current Racing Post Rating..........presumably within a set period like 'the last two weeks' So if a trainer has 5 runners with RPR's in the 90s and they all run and earns RPRs over 100...........then he'll have a 100% RTF Of course........they might all have been beaten, but they've run better than their rating said they should........so the trainer is 'in form' On the other hand a trainer could have 5 winners but they've all won easy races and have run below their RPR in victory..............that trainer would get a 0% TRF and be considered 'out of form' because his horses have run below their best (even though they've won)One question I have is on the Racing Post website they give each trainer an RTF% mark. I look at this and I presume the higher the better but Im wondering if anyone knows how they calculate this and what it takes into account. I read somewhere that it looks at an overall view of the trainers runners and marks them to how well they should have ran, but Im not sure if this is correct? -
Re: Nad Al Sheba 15/1/09 I'll probably end up watching the races if it's on late afternoon and evening but God knows how you'd pick a winner............:loon A couple of weeks ago I saw the RUK Kempton evening presenters chatting about Dubai and I jotted down a couple of notes........this was from James Willoughby of the Racing Post......... Dubai dirt track suits the long striding galloping type The South American horses are best first time out South American dirt form is far superior to their grass form Dubai dirt track has a big kick-back ( not sure what the significance of this is..........I guess it means it suits front runners who don't get any kick-back?) De Koch horses have traditionally 'needed a run' but he's taken them out to Dubai earlier this year and they might be ready first time out When it comes to the big Championship races the market usually overestimates form during the Carnival. The US and European superstars who fly in for the big races often go off at bigger odds 'cos of the money going on horses who've been running there throughout the Carnival. And just tonight they both gave a horse to follow.......... Bankable, now with De Koch Vineyard Haven from Godolphin Make of all that what you will !..............:ok
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Re: Kempton (eve) 14/1/09 8.20 Fandangerino is now a non-runner as is Mission Control The new favourite is Scarab but I don't fancy him. He's lightly raced and has only contested 3 handicaps all off around 76/77 (runs off 77 today) but he hasn't managed to win and keeps getting placed, which suggests the handicapper has him pegged. I fancy 2 against the field....... Mafeking - down in class, down in the weights. He mainly runs over 10F but his sole attempt at 12F was a good run, beaten under 2L by Milville in a class 2 handicap a year ago. That was only a 4 runner race and there might not have been much pace on, so the jury is out as to wether he'll stay 12F. At least he should be able to settle OK with some front runners in the field tonight. Has won off higher than his mark today Bassinet - never won on the AW but has placed a few times. He's 6lbs higher than his last (and only) win but is a lightly raced type with just 12 career starts and could be improving. Tried over 14F last time but didn't get the trip. He sometimes makes the running but seems to be better when held up for a late run. With front runners in the field and Spencer on board, I'm hoping he'll settle behind the leaders and pick them off in the straight ! Both of these are around 11/2 at the moment.........rather than do one of them EW, I'd back both win only...........
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Re: Daily Double Thread Mine bit the dust after the first leg......... I think it's a bit tempting to go for bigger priced EW picks.........but over the years I've never had much success with EW doubles........ Think I'll just try and pick two winners tomorrow .........forget the EW malarky ! :ok
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Re: Lingfield 14/1/09
For once Spencer did the business, going up the inside instead of trying to work his way around the field to the outside. Well done Jamie !.............:lol And cheers to Fin.........it's reading your posts that got me interested in the all weather..........I don't even look at the jumps cards now........:unsure4/1 winner:clap -
Re: Lingfield 14/1/09 No prob ! After the 2.20 (now at 2.50) the last 3 races will go off at 25 minute intervals......... Course.........at some point the fog will thicken and it'll be abandoned........:unsure
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Re: Lingfield 14/1/09
They're going to try and catch up a bit as the afternoon goes on....... the 12.40 is now the 1.35 By the time they get to the 2.20 it will go off at 2.50..........First race is 1:10, So everything is an hour delayed. SB 1:40 for your race. :ok -
Re: Lingfield 14/1/09 oops..........spoke too soon Racing is now 'on hold' to see if the fog lifts a bit.........
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Re: Lingfield 14/1/09 They're racing..............but we ain't going to see much of it. Ling 2.20 - Basra - Win Has now dropped down the handicap back to it's last winning mark of 80 That last win was over today's trip at GL and he has run well here at Lingield before, tho' not winning, so the CD should be no problem Has had a couple of runs over the wrong trips since coming back from a summer break, running over 7F and 12F in class 3 races Back to his optimum trip, down in the weights and down in class today Trainer has only had 2 runners this year so far but they've finished 2nd and 3rd Main problem - Spencer is up. :loon
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Re: BBOTD - 14th January 2009 Ling 2.20 - Basra - Win Has now dropped down the handicap back to it's last winning mark of 80 That last win was over today's trip at GL and he has run well here at Lingield before, tho' not winning, so the CD should be no problem Has had a couple of runs over the wrong trips since coming back from a summer break, running over 7F and 12F in class 3 races Back to his optimum trip, down in the weights and down in class today Trainer has only had 2 runners this year so far but they've finished 2nd and 3rd Main problem - Spencer is up. :loon
BBOTD Sun 18/1/09
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD Sun 18/1/09 4.50 Kempton - Divinsky - win I can only see two winners of this race depending on how it's run. River Kirov, currently 11/8 and Dvinsky, currently 10/1 Both CD winners, both in cracking form, both up in the weights, both have won in class 4 before My last 3 picks for BBotD, Ivory Silk, Princess Valerina and Smokey Ryder, have all been seeming 'good things' and favourites in AW sprints, and they all got beat. So I'm going back to trying to find one at a bigger price to beat the favourite. Dvinsky fits the bill today !