Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Group One Races 2009 2000 Guineas......... These are the trends that I've picked out to form my shortlist..... 10/10 - losing run of 2 or less 10/10 - 7 career runs or less 10/10 - not won over further than 7F at 2 9/10 - 5 career runs or less 9/10 - won half or more of their races 9/10 - RPR of 107+ at 2 3/3- RPR of 111+ at 3 (those that had run at 3 obviously !) 7/10 - won a group or listed race at 2 7/10 - Seasonal debut 3/3 - not on seasonal debut were 1st or 2nd their prep race I've also cobbled up a basic 'stamina breeding number' - sire plus damsire divide by 2 - which isn't entirely satisfactory but 8/10 winners falls within number 8-10. I've used this only to discount runners that are borderline on the other trends. So...........the short list......... Delegator Mastercraftsman Rip Van Winkle Ashram I've a query against Ashram on the stamina number because I can't find a 'number' for his sire Delegator is fit, in form, handles the going, CD winner, visually impressive in the Craven Slightly worried about the 2 O'Brien horses - the stable isn't really firing yet and both rounded off last year with fairly poor runs abroad. Do they travel well ? Have they been over-rated because of the stable reputation ? RPW won a maiden, won a four runner group 3 beating a filly carrying a penalty, so effectively at level weights. He then ran 7th in what looks a below par Dewhurst. The winner of that race, Inrtense Focus, had been beaten half a dozen times and they finished in a heap. Mastercraftsman won his first 4 races, but what did he beat ? He beat Duc De Savoie by half a length, he beat Alhaban by a short head and he beat Shaweel by a short head. His reputation really rests on a 5L slamming of Art Connoisseur, but that horse was never the same after the Coventry. As one of only 4 horses who fit my trends I reckon Ashram at around 20/1 is a cracking EW - he was impressive when winning the Somerville Tattersalls last year, acts on the going, acts on the track. So for the selections I'm going to swerve the O'Brien horses..... 1 Delegator (win only) 2 Ashram (EW)
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Re: Best bet of the day 1st May Lingfield 3.55 - Al Muheer - Win Clive Brittain's runner has been in pretty good form of late, winning 2 then finishing 3rd to Abondanza ( now 6 lbs better off). His last run at Kempton can be ignored as he generally doesn't run well there. After a lean spell Brittain had a winner yesterday Abandonza is a worthy favourite, tough as old boots front runner, but he is rising up the weights and they all know what he's gonna do........ This race has a bit of a 'Buggins Turn' look to it and Al Muheer is at least generally progressive and relatively lightly raced being a couple of years younger than the main rivals
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Re: Lingfield - 1st May 2009 5.05 Lady Jane Digby A bit like with Al Muheer this has the look of it being Lady Jane's turn..... Much of the interest in the race revolves around the 2 very lightly raced Cecil horses who, as they say 'could be anything'...........the ratings they've acheived on the Post ratings don't suggest that either of them has been given an easy mark by the handicapper though. Montbretia has had a couple of runs in handicaps and been beaten, though has still gone up in the weights after each defeat. Of the 2 I fancy Ancient Lights at around 14/1 But for the winner I'm sticking with the more experienced runners and the two that look the best are Formation and Lady Jane Digby. Lady Jane has been beaten twice by Formation in her last 2 runs but has had a little break and might be a bit fresher now. Formation has been running 'plced' a few times since those wins and maybe the handicapper has just about got him now.
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Re: Lingfield - 1st May 2009 3.55 Al Muheer Clive Brittain's runner has been in pretty good form of late, winning 2 then finishing 3rd to Abondanza ( now 6 lbs better off). His last run at Kempton can be ignored as he generally doesn't run well there. After a lean spell Brittain had a winner yesterday Abandonza is a worthy favourite, tough as old boots front runner, but he is rising up the weights and they all know what he's gonna do........ This race has a bit of a 'Buggins Turn' look to it and Al Muheer is at least generally progressive and relatively lightly raced being a couple of years younger than the main rivals.
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Re: Racingpost data If you look at the horse's own form page if lists all the topspeeds and RPR's for every race they've run in........ Is that what you mean ?
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Re: Best bet of the day 29th April
Winner' date=' winner, chicken dinner! (especially for you Trotter(lol)) :nana:nana:nana[/quote'] Thanks.............:lol:lol:lol -
Re: ***massive Gamble*** I do like to see a bit of enthusiasm..........I mean, this is a sport and it's meant to be about enjoyment and excitement. I like to share in other people's excitement..........it's life enriching.......:lol I didn't think TC was bragging so much as sharing his excitement with us....... Like whoever it is that posts 'Winner, winner, chicken dinner' after a win...........that always cracks me up !...........:lol:lol
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Re: Classic Time - Stan James 2,000 Guineas I've been doing a bit of 'trends' work on this as well........more details to follow in my 'Group One Races' thread .....erm, if I can find it..........:lol Not sure about Stamina Index.......is that the number after the stallions name for average winning distance of progeny ?........so Kingmambo would be 9.8 ? I've worked out my own stamina figure by adding together the AWD of the Sire's progeny and the Damsire's progeny and dividing by 2............:unsure With my trends I've got the field down to....... Arazan Delegator Himalya Mastercraftsman Rip Van Winkle Ashram (?) Query Ashram because I can't find a stamina figure for his Sire, he fits the other trends. At the moment I'm leaning towards 'Rip' but I'll have a final look on Friday night........... 'Citing innit !............:nana
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Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April News 4.20 - Thebes - 2 points win (banker) Like Woody above, I was also on this last week when it got mugged on the line at 9/1............:wall It owes me one............:lol Got it's ideal conditions again today, 6F, fast ground. He's won class 2 handicaps before and is just 2 lbs higher than his last wining mark. Barney Mcgrew looks like the main danger but his record at Class 2 is poor - 11 runs, 0 wins - and he's 5 lbs higher than his last winning mark Last chance saloon for Thebes................:hope
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Re: Help needed regarding Horse Ratings I reckon the Racing Post ratings are as good as anything, and they're free I don't use the adjusted rating on the racecard, I look at the ratings for previous runs on the horse form page. To be honest I don't think it matters which ones you use as long as they're consistant within themselves over the months and years, so you're confident that a rating of 100 today is the same as a rating of 100 a year ago. Horses aren't going to run to their ratings anyway............they're going to have ups and downs, run well one day and badly another. So any ratings are only a guide to a horse's potential for todays race.
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Re: Group One Races 2009 Thanks bowles !........ Always a bit of a worry with the French races because you're never sure in advance what the likely odds are or what the going is........ If I decide to carry on with this I'll stick up a P/L column after a few races......... On to Newmarket for the Guineas !
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The 2009 season steps up a gear today with the first of the group one races. 2.50 Longchamp - Prix Ganay - 10.5 furlongs for 4 year olds and over. Here's some trends from the last 10 runnings........... 9/10 - 4 or 5 year olds 7/10 - 4 year olds 9/10 - colts 9/10 - 12 career runs or fewer 9/10 - group race winners (the one that wasn't was Duke Of Marmalade !) So far, not too good as nearly all today's runners fit those trends. 5/10 - finished 1st or 2nd in the main trial, the D'Harcourt. 5/10 - Previously won Group One race 8/10 - had won over further than todays trip 9/10 - career best racing post rating of 117 plus The D'Harcourt winner, Trincot, misses the race so the form is represented by the 2nd, 3rd and 4th - The Bogberry, Vision D'Etat and Loup Breton. With a slightly longer trip and the change around in weights Vision D'etat should come out on top from those 3. Group One winners in todays field - Vision D'Etat, Alderfluger, Cima de Triomphe and The wayyouare. Alderfluger and 'Cima' have won their Group Ones in Germany and Italy. 'Cima' has his first run since moving to Cumani from italy. Vision D'Etat won the French Derby and finished 5th in the Arc. Thewayyouare won the Gran Crterium as a two year old but only had two runs last year and disappointed. This is his first run for the O'Brien yard and they've sent over their number one pacemaker, Red Rock Canyon, to give him a hand. Vision D'Etat ticks all the boxes Thewayyouare - best watched till he shows signs of getting back to his form from 2 years ago. Some of O'Briens seem to need the run Alderfluger looks like a plodder, 12 furlongs, heavy ground type, might be a bit sharp for him today, but he could be a force when conditions are right Cime de triomphe - I like this horse, if Cumani can imrove him a bit, he'll be competitive at top level. Tajaweed - promising, but has only won at group 3 level Selections....... 1 Vision D'Etat 2 Cima de Triomphe
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Re: Sandown - Sat 25/4/09 4.15 - Halicarnassus - EW Dead 8 runners and 2 at short prices making their seasonal debuts, so looking for an EW amongst the ones that are guaranteed fit. Halicarnassus is well suited by good to firm ground, small field races and coming off a slow pace, which he might get today. He's won a Group 3 before He had a fairly successful trip out to Dubai, winning a decent handicap He's come back and won a small race at Ponty to show his well being. Not so sure about tartan bearer today - you wouldn't think a small field 10F race with no obvious pace would suit him. Also - if he's fully wound up why isn't he running in the Group One Ganay tomorrow ? Stoute has sent Tajaweed to that - does that mean he's the more forward of the two ?
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Re: Best bet of the day 24th April Sandown 4.20 - Northern Tour - EW Started off with a bang as a two year old running in the Brocklesby, then winning it's next 2 races. It was noted as being a bit of a weak type and sure enough it tailed off later in the year. Was a bit one-paced behind Saint Arch in a good Kempton handicap over 8F on re-apperance. Reckon 10 furlongs will suit, trainer in good form.
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Re: Sandown Fri 24th April These 3 year old handicaps look very tricky but I'm having a crack at an EW 'Trixie' with some of the outsiders....... 1.25 Midnight Cruiser Has been in and out and finished last of 8 on his seasonal debut in a Listed race at Lingfield on the AW. Didn't handle the tight LH track, hung right, went wide round the bend. He wasn't unfancied though, going off at 9/2 and better fancied than Hannon's other runner, Isolater, who's a decent type. He ran in some decent races as a 2YO, races won by Crowded House, On Our Way, Wingwalker. 2.35 Cut The Cackle I like the Winkworth stable, they seem to specialise in first time out big price winners/places. This one is a CD winner, won 2 out of 3 as a two year old including a nursery off 82. Runs off 85 now, so at least we know it's juvenile form hasn't been wildly over-rated and it looks fairly handicapped. 4.20 Northern Tour Started off with a bang as a two year old running in the Brocklesby, then winning it's next 2 races. It was noted as being a bit of a weak type and sure enough it tailed off later in the year. Was a bit one-paced behind Saint Arch in a good Kempton handicap over 8F on re-apperance. Reckon 10 furlongs will suit, trainer in good form.
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 22nd April
:lol:lol my keyboard has started to miss out some letters unless I press really hard on them......t and x so far...... Hope i don't need to write to the tax office.........:unsureWell done Trotter. Good pick mate :ok As for EW, it would be better to stick with it than be sick with it ;) -
Re: Best Bet of the Day 22nd April
Woo hoo..........only a quarter odds, but it's better than losing ! Think I'll sick with the EW for a while..........:tongue2I'm on a bit of a long losing run so I'm gonna give EW a try in the hope of stemming the losses and accruing more regular, if smaller, profits.........:lol Epsom 4-15 - Ladies Best - EW -
Re: Epsom 22nd April Correction - Ladies Best hasn't won at Epsom before.......he has run well though, finishing second in a class 2 off a higher mark than he runs off today. Sorry about that !..........:unsure
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 22nd April I'm on a bit of a long losing run so I'm gonna give EW a try in the hope of stemming the losses and accruing more regular, if smaller, profits.........:lol Epsom 4-15 - Ladies Best - EW Ladies Best won a class 2 at Ponty recently as the outsider of the field. His trainer explained that he'd had a breathing operation and his last few runs could be ignored as he couldn't breathe. He'd fallen down the weights a bit after those poor results last year and looks well in now if he's back to his best. Has run well at Epsom before, finishing second in a class 2 off a higher mark than he runs off today. Could come on a bundle for that Ponty win if the horse realises that he can run and breathe at the same time
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Re: Epsom 22nd April A few big field handicaps Each way Trixie material ! 2-30 - Bertoliver 3-05 - Hatton Flight 4.15 - Ladies Best Bertoliver is ideally suited by 5 furlongs and a big field. All 7 of his wins and places have come in double figure fields. Seasonal debut so fitness has to be taken on trust. Hatton Flight won a class 2 handicap at Lingfield recently and is only 2 lb higher. He's won at Goodwood so should handle the track. Trainer in good form. The horse won four times last summer but the Lingfield win shows that he's still improving. That was his seasonal debut Ladies Best won a class 2 at Ponty recently as the outsider of the field. His trainer explained that he'd had a breathing operation and his last few runs could be ignored as he couldn't breathe. He'd fallen down the weights a bit after those poor results last year and looks well in now if he's back to his best. Has won at epsom before. Could come on a bundle for that Ponty win if the horse realises that he can run and breathe at the same time !............
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Re: Best bet of day 21st April Kemp 4.20 - Checklow - win Ran a cracker here last time over CD when a fast finishing second to Mahadee in a class 2 handicap with Extraterrestrial in third (won the Spring Cup on Saturday) and Samarinda fourth (re-opposes today) That was Checklow's seasonal debut so hopefully he can come on a bit for the run and with the drop in grade today he should take all the beating.
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Re: Pontefract 20/4/09 Grrr..........I'm sure Thebes had that 5 yards from the line....... Dicky camera angle at Ponty !
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Re: Best bet of day 20th april Nice one Samba !....... That Grand Zafeen had some good write ups but I was put off because it was given as a 'Drifter' on the ATR morning show..........:unsure 3/1 was a good price !...........:D Well done on the 1, 2, 3............:clap
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Re: Best bet of day 20th april Erm.........yeah.........a rule like that would probably cover it........:lol:lol:lol Thanks for clearing that up, guys ! :ok
Thirsk Sat 2nd May 2009
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Thirsk Sat 2nd May 2009 Hunt Cup - 4.15 - Mangham - EW Was well fancied for the Lincoln but didn't get in Ran in the Spring Cup and was well beaten, but had set the pace on one side for 5 furlongs This is a much easier race than the Lincoln, the trainer is now in pretty good form and the horse has a chance to show us why he was so well fancied for the big one.