Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Chester 7/5/09
Good luck mate' date=' but, believe me, the fact I fancy it is NOT a positive!!! :lol[/quote'] That made me giggle...........:lol -
Re: Chester 7/5/09 2.45 Golden Sword - EW Another race with the dead 8 runners (at the moment) I like the look of the O'Brien second string here. He's already had a run this season which is important as most of the Ballydoyle horses have not been winning first time out. He ran in a group 2 over in France and finished a close up 4th. The 3rd has since come out and won another group 2, so it looks like solid group 2 form. He had a pacemaker that day who let him down by not getting to the front and the race turned into a sprint finish. I'm hoping that Golden Sword isn't here today to act as pacemaker, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made the running anyway Obviously Masterofthehorse looks like the first choice with Murtagh up. The thing that worries me about him is that he's not running in the 'Ballysax' over the weekend which, along with the Dante, now seems to be the main Derby trial. O'Brien has about 6 declared for that race, but not this horse. That suggests to me that he's a bit down the pecking order, but I might be reading too much into it............:tongue2
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Re: Chester 7/5/09 2.15 - Yahrab - EW With just the 8 runners (bet there's another non-runner ! :().........I'm looking for an EW Yahrab is a front runner who wins his races by getting to the front, slowing it down and sprinting to the finish. These sound like perfect tactics for this track and against the front 2 in the market He's won at Listed level and has one magnificent piece of recent form to his name from his winter in Dubai. He finished second to Presvis who is undoubtedly a group one horse. This trip might be a bit sharp for Doctor Fremantle who looks like a proper stayer. Expresso Star won the Lincoln in a big field with a fast pace to lay up behind. A slow tactical race would probably not suit either of them.
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Re: Chester 7/5/09 1.45 Fanjuro Barry Hills horse looks to have a good chance here. Lightly raced type, ran a good race in the Newbury Spring Cup last time out to finish just outside the places. Formerly with Noseda who ran him in a couple of group races last year so he must have shown some promise. If anyone knows what a 'Chester horse' is it must be Barry Hills, so I'm trusting that he thinks the horse will go well around here. Drawn in stall one The likely favourite, Stoute's Kingdom of Fife, looks worth opposing as he ran here last year and the RP noted that he didn't appear to handle the track. Both his wins have been at Sandown which is a bit different to Chester.
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Re: Best bet of the day Weds 6th May Chester 2.45 - Desert Sea - EW Has aleady won two class 2 handicaps, has won over 18 furlongs, has won on good to firm ground, has won on a tight track (Kempton AW), won last time out, has a decent low draw and the trainer is in form. Looks a cracking EW bet at around 16/1
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Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup
Chester Cup......... Anyone know what happened to Nemo Spirit ? It's not shown as a non-runner but it doesn't appear on the racecard...... I'm wondering if I imagined it being a runner.........:loonGala Evening Desert Sea Som Tala Double Banded Downhiller Nemo Spirit -
Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup I've been looking at this from the point of view of 'class 2 handicap trends' that I've been working on and have a short list of six............ Gala Evening Desert Sea Som Tala Double Banded Downhiller Nemo Spirit It'll be a good test of my trends to see how they get on in such a competitive race. For final selections I'll take out Nemo Spirit (drawn wide) Gala Evening, Som Tala and Double Banded (trainers not in great form) That leaves me with 2 against the field of Desert Sea and Downhiller, both of which have decent draws and trainers in form. As a bonus (not part of the trends) they also both won last time out and both have won class 2 handicaps.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day (tues 5th May) Catterick 8.05 - Racoon - EW Getting on a bit now at 9 years old, but he won last time out at Nottingham which is the best recent form on offer tonight. ( The 'Life' says it was a new track record, which is a bit difficult to believe with a field of class 6 handicappers ! ) The ground has come in his favour as pretty much all his wins have been on good to firm over a sharp 5 furlongs - he's won twice over CD Up to 68 after his last win, but he has won off higher marks a couple of years ago Currently showing at 9/1..........
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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done jtw..........:ok You're on a cracking run !
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Re: Spencer-Watch The guy at the B2YOR wrote an interesting article about Spencer's riding of two year olds after the 'Thomas Baines' affair at Windsor (?)........... http://www.b2yor.co.uk/2009_Season/09_Previews/090422_rcgprev.htm It's quite a long article about that days racing, but the Spencer discussion is the last few paragraphs..........
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Re: Just Dam Unlucky I told everyone at work to have a small EW on Terimon at 500 to 1 in the 1989 Derby..........it finished 2nd but I hadn't backed it.........:unsure I don't think anyone else at work did either..........clouds, silver linings etc............:lol
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day**4/05/2009***
Nice one !..........:ok14.30 Kempton - Glamorous Spirit Although not displaying excellent performances in the last 2 races still made a good showing, beating cecily at Brighton losing to Green Beret and in a better race at Sandown. Last time at kempton finished 2nd but was carrying an extra 8lbs still beating cecily again. Now the wieght is off and the trip is a favourite and should come out and have a good run. For me this is a definite place. 0.5pt EW -
Re: Curragh 4/5/09
So much for 'a fast ground action'............:wall Mind, I wouldn't know a fast ground action from a horse wearing concrete boots.........so I guess the leson is not to believe everything you read ! :loonFR.........non-runner Vocalised ............LAY !.............:unsure -
Re: Curragh 4/5/09
FR.........non-runner Vocalised ............LAY !.............:unsure2.30 - Firey Red I reckon it's worth opposing the odds-on favourite, Vocalised, on account of the heavy ground. He won the Greenham on ground described as 'soft' but I'm not sure how soft it was, and his trainer said he would be better on fast ground. I've read somewhere that the horse has 'a fast ground action'...............:unsure -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day**4/05/2009***
This one is now a non runner..........so I'm changing to......... Curragh 4.00 - Lady Deauville - EW One of my favourites, a tough battling grey who loves heavy ground. Not top class by any means, but has won Listed and group races when conditions are in her favour..........10 furlongs, soft ground, small field She gets her conditions today..........shame there isn't 8 runners Slight worry that she disappointed on her seasonal debut over in France, trailling in next to last ...........on the bright side though, the one horse she beat was the winner of last years's Group One 'St Alary'.........and just in front of her were Trincot (went on to win the group 2 D'Harcourt) and Loup Breton (second in the Ganay)..........so it was probably a pretty hot race. She's at big odds today but if any of the principals are a bit short in their preparation or don't fancy a slog, she could cause an upset.........I just hope she's there at the 2 furlong pole and in the mood to dig in. I guess with only 7 runners, it's gotta finish first or second for my EWCurragh - 2.30 - Firey Red - Win -
Re: Curragh 4/5/09 Grrrr............thanks jtw.........I've got it on BBotD as well........:wall
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day**4/05/2009*** Curragh - 2.30 - Firey Red - Win I reckon it's worth opposing the odds-on favourite, Vocalised, on account of the heavy ground. He won the Greenham on ground described as 'soft' but I'm not sure how soft it was, and his trainer said he would be better on fast ground. I've read somewhere that the horse has 'a fast ground action'...............:unsure Firey Red finished just behind Oh Goodness Me on her seasonal debut with Mad About You behind. The winner is heading for the Musidora and Oaks and is highly regarded. That was only Firey Red's second career start and improvement can be expected As it is she's second top rated on Racing Post Ratings behind Vocalised
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Re: Curragh 4/5/09 4.00 - Lady Deauville One of my favourites, a tough battling grey who loves heavy ground. Not top class by any means, but has won Listed and group races when conditions are in her favour..........10 furlongs, soft ground, small field She gets her conditions today..........shame there isn't 8 runners for an EW bet Slight worry that she disappointed on her seasonal debut over in France, trailling in next to last ...........on the bright side though, the one horse she beat was the winner of last years's Group One 'St Alary'.........and just in front of her were Trincot (went on to win the group 2 D'Harcourt) and Loup Breton (second in the Ganay)..........so it was probably a pretty hot race. She's at big odds today but if any of the principals are a bit short in their preparation or don't fancy a slog, she could cause an upset.........I just hope she's there at the 2 furlong pole and in the mood to dig in.
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Re: Curragh 4/5/09 2.30 - Firey Red I reckon it's worth opposing the odds-on favourite, Vocalised, on account of the heavy ground. He won the Greenham on ground described as 'soft' but I'm not sure how soft it was, and his trainer said he would be better on fast ground. I've read somewhere that the horse has 'a fast ground action'...............:unsure Firey Red finished just behind Oh Goodness Me on her seasonal debut with Mad About You behind. The winner is heading for the Musidora and Oaks and is highly regarded. That was only Firey Red's second career start and improvement can be expected. At around 6/1 she looks an EW steal.........
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Re: Group One Races 2009 Oh dear.........Ghanaati was a bit of a trend buster....... I'd marked her down for 2 things.........she hadn't run in a group race at 2 and her RPR at 2 was a good 20-30lbs below the rating of previous winners As for my 4 trends horses - the 2 sprinter types didn't stay as expected and the 2 selections finished 2nd and 5th. Cuis Ghaire was decent odds at 12/1 but Rainbow View at odds-on was plain disappointing and perhaps those wise folks who said 'she's just a two year old' last year might be right. Off to France now for the Poulains and Pouliches........:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day - Sunday 3/5/09 Sals - 2.15 - Dark Mischief - Win Won a similar handicap at the Newmarket Craven meeting, if anything today's race looks easier and he should carry the extra weight in this company. He's the most lightly raced in the field and open to lots on improvement Well suited by good to firm ground, he's unbeaten on it in his short career to date. Candy stable has been banging in the sprint winners of late
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Re: Group One Races 2009 On to the 1000 guineas.......... Trends....... 10/10 - 8 career runs or less 10/10 - losing run of 2 or less 10/10 - ran in a group race at 2 10/10 - not won over further than 8F at 2 9/10 - RPR of 101+ at 2 8/10 - not won over further than 7F at 2 4/5 - that ran at 3 won their prep race 4/5 - RPR of 105+ at 3 7/10 - 5 career runs or less 7/10 - won last race 7/10 - Won a group race at 2 6/10 - won more than half their races 5/10 - Seasonal debut 9/10 - Stamina figure of 8 to 10 That lot gives me a short list of 4....... Cuis Ghaire Rainbow View Serious Attitude Shimah Serious Attitude and Shimah look like sprinters to me and there has to be doubts over the trip for them both, although in previous years 3/10 of the last 1000 winners hadn't won over further than 6F at 2. A slow pace race would probably suit them both, but then it would also suit Rainbow View who has a terrific turn of foot. so by elimination I've gotta go for 1 Rainbow View (win only) 2 Cuis Ghaire (EW)
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Re: Group One Races 2009 2000 gns - post match analysis Well, Brian...........:lol Not too disappointed with my trends research.........my main 3 picks finished 2nd, 4th and 5th. Ashram was a disappointment, but as I said, I had a query over it anyway and probably should have left it off the shortlist because of that. I wanted to get it in because I wanted a big price one for an EW selection. Must try and avoid doing that in future. The winner, Sea The Stars, was 'next best' in my list because he only fell down on one trend - he had won over 8F at 2 With the 3rd horse home also having won over 8F at 2 my thought is that there isn't an outstanding 3YO Miler around and the middle distance horses have dominated the Guineas because of that. But plenty of time for something to emerge in time for the St James at Royal Ascot.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 2/5/09 Newm 3.10 - Delegator - Win Fit, in form, course and distance winner, acts on good to firm, impressive winner of the Craven Fits all the trend stats............ With some doubts over the O'Brien stable not hitting top form yet, he must have a good chance of Classic glory - outside the first few in the market, it looks like a weak renewal, although we probably say that every year !
Chester 7/5/09
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Chester 7/5/09 Cheshire Prince........25/1..........:loon Well done samba !...........:clap:nana