Trotter
-
Posts
14,665 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Re: York - Wed 13/5/09 Couple of long shots....... 3.10 Dohasa EW Just on the off chance that something coming from behind could collar them on the line.........lots of pace in the race. Dohasa ran some decent races over in the desert, then chased home Mad About You back in Ireland. Quite speedy but appears to get 7 furlongs so should be running on at the finish if the leaders begin to tire. 4.55 - Cosmic Sun EW This horse ran 8 times at 2 but couldn't win - it looks thoroughly exposed and there's nothing to recommend it in the form book. I just remember that it was a nice looking horse and that it appeared to need a much longer trip than the usual two year old races. It might be that 10 furlongs is nowhere near far enough to bring out it's best, but at big odds, it's worth a small EW interest.
-
Re: York - Wed 13/5/09 Red Jade is a non runner........... I guess we'll never know the outcome of 'the debate'.......
-
Re: BBOTD - Tue 12/5/09 Stewart.........you're in tuesday's thread ! :unsure Ooops..........you noticed !..........
-
Re: BBOTD - Tue 12/5/09
I'm not sure I've quite interpreted the last statement BH' date=' but if you mean I've not had many winners lately, you're dead right, I could do with studying them a bit more intensely than I've been doing.[/quote'] Diamond........I think you've missed one of the competition rules........selections have to be posted at least 10 minutes before the off time..........:ok -
Re: York - Wed 13/5/09 York 2.40 - Star Ruby - win Apart from the rank outsider it wouldn't be a surprise if any of the other 5 won this. Star Ruby made a good impression winning a Sandown Maiden a few weeks ago, Hidden Brief 2 and a bit lengths 2nd, the pair 8 lengths clear of the field. Hidden Brief was then beaten 4 and bits lengths in the Chester Oaks trial, so Star Ruby is obviously in the ballpark of an Oaks trial winner. Importantly, though, that was Star Ruby's first ever run and normal improvement from a first run should see her well able to win a trial.
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day 'wed' 13/0509 York 2.40 - Star Ruby - win Apart from the rank outsider it wouldn't be a surprise if any of the other 5 won this. Star Ruby made a good impression winning a Sandown Maiden a few weeks ago, Hidden Brief 2 and a bit lengths 2nd, the pair 8 lengths clear of the field. Hidden Brief was then beaten 4 and bits lengths in the Chester Oaks trial, so Star Ruby is obviously in the ballpark of an Oaks trial winner. Importantly, though, that was Star Ruby's first ever run and normal improvement from a first run should see her well able to win a trial.
-
Re: Dam-ming Proof - Or is it? Yeah Ginge, ........each horse will be individual, Midday has a figure of 8.5 on my system.........in these early stages of my research I'd be inclined to say 'no chance' of winning the Oaks. On the other hand I fancy her.........:loon Here's my results to date ........ The figure is Sire plus Damsire divide by 2 a figure of 8 will include 8.0 to 8.9 9 will be 9.0 to 9.9..........and so on 8 Furlong Races (53 races - 1000, 2000, Pouliches, Poulains, Lockinge) Below 7 - no winners 7 - 2 winners 8 - 16 winners 9 - 14 winners 10 - 17 winners 11 - 4 winners 12 and above - no winners 10 Furlong (approx) races ( 39 races - Ganay, D'Ispahan, Curragh Gold Cup, St alary) Below 8 - no winners 8 - 1 winner 9 - 14 winners 10 - 15 winners 11 - 9 winners 12 and above - no winners The bulk of 8 furlong winners, 47 out of 53, fall within the range 8-10 The bulk of the 10 furlong winners, 38 out of 39, fall within the range 9-11 I haven't done any 12 furlong races yet, but I'm expecting that the range would 'shift up' by another furlong and that the bulk of the winners will be in the range 10-12 Sea The Stars has a figure of 8.9..........only 1 out of 39 winners of 10 furlong races had a figure under 9.........so moving up to 12 furlongs, I don't expect many (if any) winners with such a low figure My verdict - he won't stay !........well, he won't win Of course, my system might be rubbish..............:tongue2
-
Re: Dam-ming Proof - Or is it? What does anyone think of this idea for assessing stamina........ I've been looking at Group One race winners and giving each previous winner a 'stamina number'............rather than just take the Sire number I've taken Sire plus Damsire, divide by 2......... Obviously 'stamina' will come from both sides of a horses pedigree so that seems more realistic............:unsure Think I might give todays racing a miss with hundreds of non runners ruining every card, so if I have time I might post up results of my research to date..........
-
Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A
One other question arose to my mind when watching yesterdays Derby trial stakes. I have harness/trotting race background and many times there are overreactions for winning the races oddswise. For example' date=' a horse wins a race and next time out it's odds are slashed way too low. In yesterdays Derby trial stakes Age Of Aquarius won by neck Montaff and Father Time and when I looked at antepost odds for Derby AOA was priced on 32, Montaff 200 and Father Time 150. To me differences on the odds look too steep as closely run race that yesterdays race was. Does winning a race in general reflect the odds too much in British racing?[/quote'] I think in the case of that race it would be unlikely that the beaten horses will run in the Derby........on the basis that if they couldn't win this race, there's no point running them in the Derby.........so the big odds probably reflect the assumption that they're unlikely to run ! -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day 'monday' 11*05*09 6.50 Windsor - Ordnance Row - win Hannon's horse ran a cracker on Saturday........ well, ran pretty well........ He won this race last year looks to be in tiptop shape for a defence of his title. Not sure about this business of running after 2 days - his record is unclear as to wether he will handle that, thrive on it, or run a stinker. He beat Laa Rayb into second in a similar race at Salisbury last year and that one, Laa Rayb was only just in front of Ordnance Row on their seasonal debuts at Ascot a few weeks ago. Hannon's horse has the reputation of needing a run, so he might now reverse places with Laa rayb. I don't think there's much between them to be honest I was tempted by Abbondanza having followed him on the AW this winter where he's put in some fantastic performances. He's a gutsy, never say die front runner. His record on turf isn't bad, 3 wins from 13 runs, but that was in lower grade handicaps. His last 3 wins on the AW have been in class 2 handicaps, so he's improved a lot over the last 6 months. The main thing that puts me off him is the presence of another front runner in Dijeerr............for the sake of my selection, I hope they take each other on
-
Re: Longchamp - 10/5/09 Bit miffed........... Spent quite a bit of time on the trends, then didn't take on board the trend horse as my selection........... I guess I'm still a bit sceptical about trends........ Still, good to see Le Havre beating Naaqoos again........... For what it's worth my 'trends' horse in the Poulains is Tamarzirte........let's see how she gets on. If she wins, I'll pay more attention to the trends...........:ok
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day Sun 10/05/2009 Longchamp 2.25 - Le Havre - Win Won one of the trials, the Djebel, beating Naaqoos. That was over 7 furlongs and both of them should improve over the mile but there doesn't appear to be any reason why Le Havre won't improve as much as Naaqoos and still beat him. I've been looking at the 'trends' for this race and there isn't much worth noting, apart from the fact that 5 of the last 10 winners have come from a run in the Prix Fontainbleu. The first 3 home in that trial, Silver Frost, Westphalia and Oiseau De Feu all run today As far as 'trends' go, Silver Frost would probably be the selection - but the Le Havre - Naaqoos trial just looked more impressive. Oiseau's jockey has chosen to ride Le Havre, maybe an indication that they think that was the stronger trial. Vocalised is in cracking form and has shown good acceleration at 7 furlongs. If the race is a dawdlw with a sprint finish he could have a great chance But i reckon Le Havre's boat will come in..............
-
Re: Longchamp - 10/5/09 2.25 - Le Havre Won one of the trials, the Djebel, beating Naaqoos. That was over 7 furlongs and both of them should improve over the mile but there doesn't appear to be any reason why Le Havre won't improve as much as Naaqoos and still beat him. I've been looking at the 'trends' for this race and there isn't much worth noting, apart from the fact that 5 of the last 10 winners have come from a run in the Prix Fontainbleu. The first 3 home in that trial, Silver Frost, Westphalia and Oiseau De Feu all run today As far as 'trends' go, Silver Frost would probably be the selection - but the Le Havre - Naaqoos trial just looked more impressive. Oiseau's jockey has chosen to ride Le Havre, maybe an indication that they think that was the stronger trial. Vocalised is in cracking form and has shown good acceleration at 7 furlongs. If the race is a dawdlw with a sprint finish he could have a great chance But i reckon Le Havre's boat will come in..............
-
Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. thanks spooner..........that's not bad odds at all...........:hope
-
Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. No flat racing in UK today ...........:loon I'll have one from France as well........... 2.25 - Le Havre Beat Naaqoos fair and square in the trial race yet is at much bigger odds than his rival today and will probably be 3rd or 4th favourite.......... To be honest, I have no idea what the odds are, I'm going off the Sporting Life forecast.............:unsure
-
Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY sat 9/05/09 ps apologies for the brevity........my usual long rambling essay was lost somewhere in cyberspace upon hitting the Submit button..........:loon
-
Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY sat 9/05/09 Ling 2.40 - Midday - win Ran well at epsom, form in the book against some well regarded but inexperienced newcomers. Looks like cecil's oaks filly
-
Re: The FTTS E/W Lucky 15. Asc 1-40 - Basque Beauty Topweight in the handicap, lightly raced, seasonal debut - won first time out last year over this CD on good to firm, trainer in spanking form.
-
Re: Best bet of the day 8th May 1.45 - Dunn'o - EW Is bang in form and handles the ground. Won a class 2 handicap a couple of weeks ago, is lightly raced and looks to be an improving type. Just the kind of horse that wins decent handicaps. Trouble is - he's drawn 'out in the car park'...........if he had a good draw he'd probably be joint favourite with the other 2 recent class 2 handicap winners in the field. He won at Sandown from the front, so you'd like the jockey get him out sharpish and track across to join the leading bunch. What I like about him is that he led most of the way at Sandown then got headed near the finish. Most front runners then go backwards through the field - but he had another go and got up again to win. I like horses that do that.............:ok
-
Re: Chester Fri 8/5/09 1.45 - Dunn'o - EW Is bang in form and handles the ground. Won a class 2 handicap a couple of weeks ago, is lightly raced and looks to be an improving type. Just the kind of horse that wins decent handicaps. Trouble is - he's drawn 'out in the car park'...........if he had a good draw he'd probably be joint favourite with the other 2 recent class 2 handicap winners in the field. He won at Sandown from the front, so you'd like the jockey get him out sharpish and track across to join the leading bunch. What I like about him is that he led most of the way at Sandown then got headed near the finish. Most front runners then go backwards through the field - but he had another go and got up again to win. I like horses that do that.............:ok
-
Re: Chester Fri 8/5/09 4 non runners in the Ormonde now..........:wall Scintillo - win Was going to be my EW slection at big odds - group one winner in Italy at age 2. Struggled a bit at 3 carrying a group one penalty in his races but has showed signs of coming back to his best with a couple of impressive wins on the all weather, including a group 3 race. With the passage of time his group one winners penalty has now gone and he can race in group 2 and 3 (seems to be his level) on more or less equal terms. Disappointed last time at Newbury but the Post noted that he travelled very well until his stamina gave out and he was eased. That was on soft ground on a galloping track. I think he'll get the extra furlong today on good to firm ground and at this sharp track. Small field will help as they'll probably go pretty slow. Another O'Brien hot pot to be shot at..........Frozen Fire. He's a good horse, but they've just not been winning first time out and at odds-on he's a bit of a risk. Not certain he'll handle the turning track - he didn't seem to handle Epsom in the Derby
-
Re: Chester Fri 8/5/09 Grrrrrrr.............the Ormonde Stakes has been decimated with 3 non runners..... I had a nice big priced EW sorted out but I'll have to re-think now........:wall Only 7 left in the Dee Stakes as well Grr.............non-runners...........:@
-
Re: Best bet of the day 7th May :loon...........woo hoo ! Anyone doing 'thread yankees'?.............:lol:lol
-
Re: Best bet of the day 7th May Well done samba.........fantastic !.........:nana Chester 2.45 - Golden Sword - EW Another race with the dead 8 runners (at the moment) I like the look of the O'Brien second string here. He's already had a run this season which is important as most of the Ballydoyle horses have not been winning first time out. He ran in a group 2 over in France and finished a close up 4th. The 3rd has since come out and won another group 2, so it looks like solid group 2 form. He had a pacemaker that day who let him down by not getting to the front and the race turned into a sprint finish. I'm hoping that Golden Sword isn't here today to act as pacemaker, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made the running anyway Obviously Masterofthehorse looks like the first choice with Murtagh up. The thing that worries me about him is that he's not running in the 'Ballysax' over the weekend which, along with the Dante, now seems to be the main Derby trial. O'Brien has about 6 declared for that race, but not this horse. That suggests to me that he's a bit down the pecking order, but I might be reading too much into it............:tongue2
Cloud's Multiple Bets
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Cloud's Multiple Bets Good luck !.........:ok I have 'paper trailled' a similar idea in the past - looking for the 4 or 5 'sure things' according to newspaper write-ups and odds..........but there's always one that let's you down !.........:wall