Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Haydock 15th Sept 4.00 Dark Lane -EW Lightly raced three year old in the sprint handicap. He's a CD winner and has now fallen back down to his last winning mark of 80, which was over todays CD. Finished second the only other time he's run here, so obviously likes the track. Third run for the Fahey stable, which is in decent nick. Hanagan takes over from the claimer today.
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Re: Haydock 15th Sept In the 4.30 my selection, Zuwaar, is now a non runner. But what's happening with Bajan Parkes ? He was 3/1 favourite in the Life betting forecast and he's now 20/1, the ousider of the whole field Does somebody know something ? On the face of it he's not a no hoper - won last time out, acts with cut in the ground, runs off 79 today and has won off 77 and 78, he's a course winner I didn't particularly fancy him when I was looking at the race last night but then I thought he was going to be favourite and was worth opposing. I still don't fancy him but would like to know how he can go from forecast favourite to outsider of the field..............
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster Wonder how many hours we wasted between us on that one.........:unsure My pick, Mourayan, was unlucky in running, kept having to switch inside and outside and finally chopped by the carthorse, changingoftheguard I suppose that's the risk you take sitting at the back of the field........
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Re: Best bet of the day - Sat 12th Sept 2.25 Donc I lke Striking Spirit EW at big odds in the Portland. He's won 2 class 3 handicaps off 88 and 93 and his last 3 runs have been in class 2 running off 100 and getting a bit closer each time Drops a couple of pounds today I like the slightly shorter trip ( he usually runs over 6F) as he often seems to get caught just before the line and maybe over a hundred yards shorter he'll just last home
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Re: Doncaster - Sat 12th Sept I lke striking Spirit EW at big odds in the Portland. He's won 2 class 3 handicaps off 88 and 93 and his last 3 runs have been in class 2 running off 100 and getting a bit closer each time Drops a couple of pounds today I like the slightly shorter trip ( he usually runs over 6F) as he often seems to get caught just before the line and maybe over a hundred yards shorter he'll just last home.
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster
I've read that the going at York on that day wasn't as firm as reported and the fast times were due to a blistering tail-wind.In the RP, Henry Cecil states that Father Time has a live chance "as long as the ground is alright, not like york". In the form section for that York race won by Monitor Closely, jockey Dane O'Neill said the horse was not suited by the good to firm, despite the fact that he had won on g/f before. I'm interpreting both statements to think that York must have been like a road? -
Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster Mourayan for me.......... His form looks far better than any of the others....... beat Gan Amhras 4 lengths in his maiden win half length 2nd to Sea The Stars in a group 2 race one length 3rd to Fame and glory in a group 3 3rd in irish deby , beaten 6L but only 1 length behind Golden Sword. ok, so he's not been winning this year, but the Irish 3 year old form is miles ahead of the English. If any one of Sea The Stars, Fame and Glory or Golden Sword was running today in the Leger, they'd probably be odds on He's had a good break, ran 2nd to Profound Beauty in his prep race and you can't quibble with John Oxx as a trainer Looks a 'good thing' to me..................:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day 11th Sept Wolv - 9.10 - Anne's Rocket - EW Has some course form having won a maiden here Mainly disapointing in handicap company but had a purple patch in May this year winning 2 handicaps off 50 and 53 (55 today) Was then brought down in the next race when about to challenge and maybe that experience left a mark 'cos he ran poorly for a couple of runs after that. Good run last time though - 2nd of 19 in a class 5 at Goodwood. Winner has gone in again to frank the form. Drops down to class 6 tonight - must have an ew chance !
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Re: Wolverhampton 11th Sept (AW) (eve) 9.10 Anne's Rocket - EW Has some course form having won a maiden here Mainly disapointing in handicap company but had a purple patch in May this year winning 2 handicaps off 50 and 53 (55 today) Was then brought down in the next race when about to challenge and maybe that experience left a mark 'cos he ran poorly for a couple of runs after that. Good run last time though - 2nd of 19 in a class 5 at Goodwood. Winner has gone in again to frank the form. Drops down to class 6 tonight - must have an ew chance !
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Re: Wolverhampton 11th Sept (AW) (eve) Bit of a curiosity tonight in the 9.10........ A 12 runner handicap with just one pound between top and bottom weights. I bet that doesn't happen very often !.........
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster Fin........Mastery won this years Italian Derby, Group 2.......if you want to count that !.....
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster
Last call. Does anyone know Nick Mordin's shortlist of 2 in the Leger' date=' on dosage grounds? Thanks[/quote'] Sorry.........I usually read his weekly column but haven't seen anything relating to Dosage index. Where would this usually be printed ? The only thing I remember from the column is that he doesn't think Monitor Closely will get the trip, but then lots of people are saying that as well -
Re: Chat (Fri 11th Sept)
Well Spencer Looked like a Sausage' date=' Got Mashed again and had a red face like a bean[/quote'] :lol:lol:rollin -
Re: Chat (Fri 11th Sept) Sorry, didn't see it..........I missed the first race thinking it was a 2 pm start as per the last 2 days, I was having me dinner (sausage, mash and beans) I blame channel 4...........part time amateur race broadcasters dictating start times..............grrrrrrrrrrr
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Re: BBOTD - Thur 10th Sept Donc 5.25 - Fishforcompliments - EW 6F sprint handicap. This horse runs over all distances from 6F to 9F. Ran over 9F on heavy ground last time But his only wins have been at 6F Should be plenty of pace on in a big field, so hopefully his stamina will come into play at the business end of the race. His last win was in a similar race to today, a 6F class 3 handicap on good to firm at a stiffish track and he's now fallen back below that winning mark. Has a good claimer up today and the Fahey string is in decent form
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster That's a bit of a shocker - I thought Age of Aquarius was 'nailed on'........ He's not been declared for the Irish St Leger either, so probably something amiss with him............ Have to have another look now..........
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Re: Best bet of the day 8th Sept Ling - 3.55 - Guiseppe Verdi - win Going by official ratings this Seller looks to be a 2 horse race between Bee Stinger and Guiseppe Verdi who are both rated 75, some 10lbs ahead of their rivals. Currently Bee Stinger is favourite and Guiseppe Verdi is second favourite . But surely that's the wrong way round !...............:lol Old Bee Stinger has never won over todays 10 furlong trip, having tried it 6 times. He is down in class and has a recent handicap win off 68 to his name, so he must have a good chance He is 7 years old though and coming back from a 5 month break. You'd think he'd need the run to get his old joints moving. Guiseppe Verdi is a CD winner and is unbeaten on polytrack - 4 runs, 4 wins. He won here 2 runs ago in a similar race to today coming back from a break of 2 years. He's lightly raced and 2 years younger than Bee Stinger. Got fairly well beaten last time at Newbury but that was a better race. Everything looks to be ideal for him today.
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Re: Lingfield 8th Sept AW/Turf 3.55 - Guiseppe Verdi - win Going by official ratings this Seller looks to be a 2 horse race between Bee Stinger and Guiseppe Verdi who are both rated 75, some 10lbs ahead of their rivals. Currently Bee Stinger is favourite and Guiseppe Verdi is second favourite . But surely that's the wrong way round !...............:lol Old Bee Stinger has never won over todays 10 furlong trip, having tried it 6 times. He is down in class and has a recent handicap win off 68 to his name, so he must have a good chance He is 7 years old though and coming back from a 5 month break. You'd think he'd need the run to get his old joints moving. Guiseppe Verdi is a CD winner and is unbeaten on polytrack - 4 runs, 4 wins. He won here 2 runs ago in a similar race to today coming back from a break of 2 years. He's lightly raced and 2 years younger than Bee Stinger. Got fairly well beaten last time at Newbury but that was a better race. Everything looks to be ideal for him today.
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Re: Art or Science ?
Yeah.........that sums it up.......but I still keep getting drawn into it. It's very frustrating ! I need a chill pill ! :lolI feel forced-study, continually looking until you find something, is dangerous. -
Re: Art or Science ? I think 'hunches' is the wrong word really........ What I mean is name recognition of horses from the unwritten memory bank of watching the racing and reading about it....... Perhaps I'll give you an example - that handicap at haydock on Saturday that 'Yes Mr President' won It was a race that I didn't look at much as I was concentrating on the group one sprint But I think I might well have picked Yes Mr President without studying the race based on the memory that it was well fancied for one of the big handicaps at, I think, Glorious Goodwwood, and the memory of reading one of your posts, Billy, about M Johnston 3YO improvers stepping up in trip. Without looking at the race in depth 'Yes Mr president' might well have 'jumped out of the page' based on that memory bank If I'd studied the race in great depth, every horse in it, I'd probably find reasons why half a dozen might have won and ended up picking nothing. I'd have lists of speed figures and ratings but several hours wasted when I might easily have picked a winner with a cursory glance at the field and dragging up some memories.
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I've been on a bit of a bad run as far as picking winners......... It's dawning on me that my bad runs coincide with over-studying and in particular with those periods when I try and reduce winner finding to a numerical exercise. By that I mean scouring the various ratings and speed figures, stamina quotants, working out my own ratings for speed, class etc. In other words trying to assign numbers to each horse. The scientific approach ! During these periods I look in depth at every horse in the race and spend equal amounts of time on the 100/1 shot as the 6/1 shot, tho' I'm never thinking it has a chance of winning. All this is very time consuming and usually unproductive in that the final conclusion is that I can't even pick one..........usually because I convince myself that most of them might win. When I'm more successful is when I spend much less time on a race, go on 'hunches', look down the card and mentally have a short list without any research, pick my selection - then look at the form to confirm why it might win. I wouldn't even look at the basic form for three-quarters of the field. I think of this as 'flair' or the artistic approach Does this ring a bell with anyone else ? I'm sure people are all different and different methods will work for some and not for others. In my mind I like to think that the scientific approach must be better - it's more informed and more in depth. But for me it just doesn't work. Trouble is - I keep getting drawn back to it and wasting lots of time Is it a matter of confidence - lacking confidence in selections unless you can pin some numbers on it ? Are you a scientist or an artist ? Sorry for the ramble, but I can't get into tomorrow's racing and my posting fingers are getting itchy.............:lol
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Re: Jonesy's Daily Pointers great stuff jonesy ! :ok
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Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster Nick Mordin has something interesting to say about the St Leger and a very interesting stat/trend covering the last 20 years.......... " People who pay big money for racehorses nowadays don't want to see the slightest trace of real stamina in a sire. Those that win over trips longer than a mile and a half are avoided like the plague. As a result if a horse is good enough to win the St Leger you can be almost certain that nowadays it will not be asked to run 1m 5f or more before it runs in the final Classic. This explains why since 1989 the 68 Leger runners which previously ran over 1m 5f or more all lost. The very fact that they were tried over such distances meant their connections knew they weren't really up to winning a Classic " If you believe that trend you can rule out Kite Wood, Changingingofthe guard, Mastery and Von Jawolsky I like Age of Aquarius - his 2nd in the french group one looks far and away the best form on offer.
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Re: York 6 Sep Cheers..........needed that one, been on a bad run..........:unsure
Haydock 15th Sept
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Haydock 15th Sept