Trotter
-
Posts
14,668 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Re: Newmarket 17th Oct (Champions Day) What a cracking card ! 1.50 Ashram - Win Was a very highly regarded 2YO but lost his way a bit after joining Godolphin. He's not the first to have done that ! Last couple of races suggests he's beginning to fulfill his potential now Everything is right for him today - 7 furlongs, good to firm, he's a CD winner and the stable is in terrific form 2.25 Buzzword - EW Lots of fairly lightly raced horses here that might be anything, but Buzzword has some prety good form in the book and was beaten only a couple of lengths in the group one on Arc day, finishing ahead of Dick Turpin. Before that had finished 2nd to Shakespearean, who went on to win the Zillion Quid in Ireland. He gets 7 furlongs no problem and looks a tough horse. 3.00 - Twice Over - EW The class acts here are Fame and Glory and Never On Sunday, but there are doubts over both of them based on their last runs. Without those 2 it looks wide open and might be worth taking a chance with Cecil's colt. He's usually found wanting at the top level but this could be 'soft' if the two mentionned aren't at their peak. Twice over is in cracking form, has won his last 2, and likes this track. Finished 2nd in this race last year and no reason why he can't do the same again
-
Re: Wolverhampton 16th Oct (AW) (eve) 5.45 Grimes Faith EW Big odds on this one but I think he has a chance. He's had 4 poor runs on turf this summer but prior to that had won his last 2 on the AW at Southwell and is now 5 lbs lower than his last handicap win Does most of his winning at Southwell, but has placed here a couple of times Does most of his winning in Selling and Claiming company but this race is no better than a Seller
-
Re: RP - My Ratings Yes, those figures were produced by the rating method in the earlier post....... I'm using the RP 'My Rating' and 'Rate Race' to input ratings from the days results then they appear on the horse form page automatically I think speed ratings are probably a lot easier than form ratings because you start off with an absolute figure (the time) as your base point. I've tinkered with form ratings in the past and always floundered on not being able to decide which run represented the 'usual standard of form' for the horse A method I used a couple of years ago for the top races was to say that a group one winner got 120, a group 2 winner 116, a group 3 winner 113 and a listed winner 110 and beaten horses had a point taken off for each length beaten..........so a horse might have a line of ratings such as 118, 116, 112, 113. That would gave an idea as to where it was in the pecking order of group race horses. The difficulty was that it didn't distinguish between an exceptional group one winner and an ordinary group one winner - so I'll have to tinker with that if I do it again. I'm thinking along the lines of adding points for the number of winners in that grade in the race eg a group one winner winning a race with 4 group one winners in it would score 124 rather than 120 Something like that...........it's on the 'to think about' list
-
Re: Wolverhampton 15th Oct (AW) (eve) Cheers guys, it was a good winner........ Shame I stuck the other one in BBotD........:wall I fancied the other one more..........:@
-
Re: RP - My Ratings :loon That worked out pretty well......... Metal Guru was a non runner so my top 2 finished 1st and 2nd at 8/1 and 7/1 Next best finished 3rd at 14/1 Think I'll stick with it for a while.........:tongue2
-
Re: Best bet of the day - Oct 15th Wolv 7.30 - Inconspicuous Miss I like the look of this one in the Claimer At the weights she's in the top 3 or 4 best in but unlike most of the others she has some good recent form, having won a CD handicap in Spetember. Stepped up to 12 furlongs last time and beaten about 8 lengths, but her best form is at tonights trip Trainer G baker isn't in tremendous form but he's pretty wily on the all weather
-
Re: Wolverhampton 15th Oct (AW) (eve) 8.30 - Kildare Sun - ew Bit of an old timer this one, but he's now well handicapped. All 4 of his wins have come over this CD with 3 of them off higher ratings than he runs off tonight. His last win came on his 3rd run back after a break after being beaten 10 lengths on his previous outing Tonight is his 3rd run back and he was beaten 10 lengths last time. Obviously a training pattern !
-
Re: Wolverhampton 15th Oct (AW) (eve) 7.30 - Inconspicuous Miss I like the look of this one in the Claimer At the weights she's in the top 3 or 4 best in but unlike most of the others she has some good recent form, having won a CD handicap in Spetember. Stepped up to 12 furlongs last time and beaten about 8 lengths, but her best form is at tonights trip Trainer G baker isn't in tremendous form but he's pretty wily on the all weather
-
Re: Racing Post Website I've had problems with it in the past but at the moment (touch wood) it seems to be OK. You could try going in via 'The Betting Site' which appears to be seperate but includes pretty much the same stuff, including things you're meant to pay for on the main site such as betting forecasts available the night before, last 6 racing post ratings for each horse, result analysis after the racing, etc http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk/
-
Re: RP - My Ratings I'm going to have a public trial run with my ratings on the 6.00 at Wolves. Here are the last 2 ratings for each runner, I've put them in approx order highest to lowest Cayman Fox - 91, 100 Metal Guru - 87, 99 Feelin Foxy - 89, 96 Welsh opera - 68, 81 Weetasurprise - 71, 79 Drifting Gold - 84, 54 Sweet Applause - 72, 59 Anne of Kiev - 51, 72 Jord, - 36, 58 Revue princess - no ratings This is a good trial because the top 3 are fairly well clear with all 6 of their ratings higher than any rating by any other runner. If you're looking at 'form' you'd have to say that Metal Guru and Cayman Fox are up in class and out of the handicap. The form pick out of these 3 would be Feelin Foxy who's been running in class 4 races. Let's see if those ratings bear any relationship to the result !
-
Re: RP - My Ratings
I dont' date=' not sure about the other guys, it has no rellevence to me, especially with novices as they need to run a few times to get a mark anyway. I also dont go down the speed route at all, I can see why Trotter does though with the AW, same tracks, same going, same horses, ......different results, not for me i'm afraid:lol[/quote'] Yeah, I am beginning to wonder why I'm bothering - the ratings don't seem to bear much relationship to the result ! :tongue2 I'm looking at it as a 'something to do' exercise, just to have a look at it. I suppose it might be more relevant once the AW kicks off in November as at the moment I have lots of unrated performances on turf which cloud the issue. But for now I'm finding that it's just confusing me and actually making me incapable of making any selections...........:loon -
Re: RP - My Ratings Chris.......if I was doing 'form' ratings as opposed to 'speed' I'd do it the same as you I think I'd look at things like how many of the horses had won or placed last time out and bump up the winners 'OR' if there were a few and maybe reduce the OR if the field were all out of form types. I have thought about maybe just using the second placed horse as a correct OR and bumping up the winner by the amount he beat him by Probably the problem with all ratings is that horses don't run the same level race in, race out so your looking for consistant types that you can use as yardsticks, like Youmazain for example !
-
Re: RP - My Ratings Stu........I'm doing speed ratings on the AW I'm keeping it simple so I ignore going allowances figuring that the going will be pretty much the same all the time (at least compared to turf) Through much scientific study (:unsure) I've concluded that 1 second equals 18 lbs in weight terms I use the 'slower or faster' than standard from the RP, convert each race to an 8 furlong equivalent and work out the lbs equivalent to the time I've also decided that 'standard time' on the AW would be acheivable by a decent Class 2 handicapper rated 96 so i use this as my base figure to add or subtract from. An example might be clearer........ A 6F race is run 0.9 seconds slower than 'standard' To get an 8F equivalent divide 0.9 by 6 and times by 8 = 1.2 seconds slow per mile convert this to lbs by multiplying by 18 = 21.6 lbs (round up to 22) as the time was 'slow' deduct 22 from the standard of 96 = 74 the winner gets a rating of 74, beaten horses are caculated by the RP according to weight carried & lengths beaten when you input the rating into 'My Ratings' Hope that makes sense ! I'd love to hear how other posters do ratings, might get some ideas from it !
-
Re: RP - My Ratings Cheers BH........ I'm not sure about using the Master Rating so it appears on the racecard........I've left that off so far. I guess the difficulty on the AW is that they run pretty regularly and whatever ratings you use they'll run to, say 50, 93, 72 in 3 consecutive runs. How do you choose a 'Master rating'.........do you just use the best rating achieved and update it if the horse runs a higher rating in future ?
-
I'm not great at computer stuff but I've figured out how to use My Ratings on the RP site............great innit !..............:tongue2 You just put one rating in and it works out all the other horses for you ! For months now I've been compiling AW Ratings and typing them all out on a Word document...........how silly do I feel !.............:wall Anybody else use this excellent service and have any thoughts about how to get best use out of it ? Blimey, I'm almost tempted to join the Members Club...........:loon Sorry..........I either had to post or skip around the room..........:unsure
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Staurday 10th October Ascot 3.30 - Lethal Glaze - EW Lightly raced, improving three year old having won handicaps this season off 78, 85 and 92. Is up to 99 now but will that be enough to stop him ? His record in handicaps with the word 'soft' somewhere in the going description or on polytrack is 1 1 1 1 1...........two runs ago he won on the polytrack at Kempton in quite a decent race. I think polytrack suits soft ground horses because the surface is not hard. Also it seems to be something of a mantra these days that Kempton and Ascot are similar surfaces despite one being turf and one polytrack. He's been climbing up the ranks with wins in class 5, class 4, class 3. Up to class 2 today and this is his toughest task to date Last run can be ignored - it was on good to firm at Ffos Las. he finished last beaten 9 lengths, but that just ensures decent odds today !
-
Re: Ascot - Sat 10th Oct Ascot 3.30 - Lethal Glaze - EW Lightly raced, improving three year old having won handicaps this season off 78, 85 and 92. Is up to 99 now but will that be enough to stop him ? His record in handicaps with the word 'soft' somewhere in the going description or on polytrack is 1 1 1 1 1...........two runs ago he won on the polytrack at Kempton in quite a decent race. I think polytrack suits soft ground horses because the surface is not hard. Also it seems to be something of a mantra these days that Kempton and Ascot are similar surfaces despite one being turf and one polytrack. He's been climbing up the ranks with wins in class 5, class 4, class 3. Up to class 2 today and this is his toughest task to date Last run can be ignored - it was on good to firm at Ffos Las. he finished last beaten 9 lengths, but that just ensures decent odds today !
-
Re: Ascot - Sat 10th Oct 2.15 Piccadilly Filly - EW I noticed this one on the all weather & she's a real speedster. Won a Listed race over in Deauville then finished 6th in the group 2 Flying Childers Not sure about this but I think the cut in the ground will suit her She's drawn high and most of the speed & better horses are low - the going stick suggests the better ground is high. So I can see her blasting up the far rail on her own...........
-
Re: Ascot - Sat 10th Oct 5.15 Stevie Thunder - ew Has been thereabouts in a few of the top handicaps this season and finished 6th last week in the Cambridgeshire. Unfortunately his consistancy means that the handicapper appears to have 'got him' on a mark he finds it difficult to win off but the cut in the ground will suit him and last week he finished the race well
-
Re: Coming soon to this ATR forum Great stuff ! I like the idea of the Key Jumps Races, although tbh, I was thinking of sticking to the AW this winter, but I might be tempted by big race threads............:unsure Hopefully the trends guys will get involved and I might 'do a bit' if/when I have a losing run on the sand..........be good to share research and thoughts.
-
Re: Tough day on the AW? I didn't really look at the races today but i looked at the results and as always happens i think - oooh Ravi River, I'd have picked that...........oooh, Gwylim, I'd have picked that...........:tongue2 Old AW regulars who win their share..........
-
Re: Best bet of the day 9th Oct
Like all big price EW shots it finished one place out of the money........ But I haven't come on to whinge........... Just noticed there's an entirely different horse running tomorrow at Ascot called Ezdiyaad That's a bit confusing, innit !.................:unsure:loon3.20 York - Ezdeyaad - EW -
Re: Best bet of the day 9th Oct 3.20 York - Ezdeyaad - EW Handicap mark falling, horse getting a little closer to the front on each of it's last few runs. Trainer has hit form and this one looks to have a good chance from a high draw.
-
Re: Top weights in 2m NH Handicaps This site gives a useful description of irish tracks........ http://www.irishracing.com/v5coursemap note that the first one on the list, Ballinrobe, appears to have some words missing..........:unsure It doesn't say 'tight or sharp' but you can rackon that 8/9/10 furlong round tracks are tight whereas 14/15f round tracks would be galloping. It tells you which ones have uphill finishes. Good luck with this - should be interesting. It's something I've toyed with in previous seasons, so I'll be interested in seeing how it goes. My reasoning re the weight was that because the field is running around a turn for a large part of the race they naturally run slower than they would on a straight track. Running slower makes it easier to carry the weight. The top weights can also save energy for a sprint finish because they're running slower during the race.
Newmarket 17th Oct (Champions Day)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Newmarket 17th Oct (Champions Day) 3.40 Sweetheart - EW I like this filly, she's tough and a battler. Bottom weight here but has a definite chance. Has already won a Class 2 staying handicap in a big field at Glorious Goodwood, with several of these behind her. She was down the bottom of the weights that day as well and maybe is one of those little fillies that finds it easier off lower weights in better handicaps than lugging big weights against lesser horses. Gets the trip, acts on the going and is well drawn