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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    THE BREEDERS CUP - Fri 6th & Sat 7th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: THE BREEDERS CUP - Fri 6th & Sat 7th November Tonights card is a bit disappointing really..........I guess it's the add-on day to make it a 2 day meeting few selections 8.35 Muhannak EW - last years winners, back on the drugs for the first time since this race last year. 9.08 - Junia Tepzia EW - German wonder filly with Fallon up 10.23 - Magical Fantasy - had 5 runs in the UK before being shipped to the USA and improving dramatically 11.45 Rainbow View - will probably count as a surprise win but she's usually thereabouts in better races than this

    Southwell - Fri 6th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 4.00 Wabbraan Has a 100% record at the track, 2 from 2 Really went to pieces during the summer being beaten a total of around 140 lengths in his last 3 races - but has had over 4 months off to get over whatever physical or mental problem was ailing him Came back from a break of several months to win first time out this year Being well backed this morning, so assume he's fit.

    Best bet of the day 6th nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 6th nov Southwell - 2.30 Colorus - win With Lesleys Choice now likely to go off favourite it's giving us decent odds about the horses who probably would be favourite if Hugh hadn't picked Lesleys Choice. My short list was 2 - Colorus and Feelin Foxy but course form swings it in favour of Colorus. He's a 3 times CD winner, including last time out. He's gone up 3 lbs for that win but he's an improving type this season, steadily creeping up the weights but still managed to win 4 times. Has the handicapper got him now or is he still on the upgrade ? Like most of these sprinters who run every week all year round he chucks in the odd bad one and if it's today you just have to say 'fair enough' Not keen on Lesleys Choice - it's all based on that one good run at 50/1 here a couple of runs ago. That day he weakened in the last furlong and when tried at 6F he weakened in the last furlong according to the Life race reports. Well, I expect he'll weaken in the last furlong again today and summat will catch him.

    Southwell - Fri 6th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 2.30 Colorus With Lesleys Choice now likely to go off favourite it's giving us decent odds about the horses who probably would be favourite if Hugh hadn't picked Lesleys Choice. My short list was 2 - Colorus and Feelin Foxy but course form swings it in favour of Colorus. He's a 3 times CD winner, including last time out. He's gone up 3 lbs for that win but he's an improving type this season, steadily creeping up the weights but still managed to win 4 times. Has the handicapper got him now or is he still on the upgrade ? Like most of these sprinters who run every week all year round he chucks in the odd bad one and if it's today you just have to say 'fair enough' Not keen on Lesleys Choice - it's all based on that one good run at 50/1 here a couple of runs ago. That day he weakened in the last furlong and when tried at 6F he weakened in the last furlong according to the Life race reports. Well, I expect he'll weaken in the last furlong again today and summat will catch him.

    Southwell - Fri 6th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov

    1.30 High On A Hill snip........... The Godolphin 'hotpot' might well win but he's very short odds for winning a poor maiden race at Brighton on good ground, a bit different to todays test.
    Oh well........he beat the odds on favourite !.......:lol Perhaps I should have just layed the favourite but I never think of laying......might give it a go in the next few days for a change.......

    Southwell - Fri 6th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell - Fri 6th Nov 1.30 High On A Hill I usually only have a cursory look at the two year old races but this one stood out a bit as the outsider of the field in the nursery Showed much better form last time when third in a Salisbury maiden. Those back end salisbury maidens are usually pretty decent. It was also his first look at Soft ground after running on polytrack, which could mean he'll be well suited by the surface today The Godolphin 'hotpot' might well win but he's very short odds for winning a poor maiden race at Brighton on good ground, a bit different to todays test.

    Lingfield 5th November (AW)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lingfield 5th November (AW) 1.10 Colangnik - EW Still a maiden but ran a couple of decent races in all weather maiden races at the back end of last season. Was only beaten just over a length by Greenisland who's won off 89 this year. Has had a poor year this season and dropped down to 60 in the ratings, but his stable have been under a cloud all season until the last few weeks when the winners have started coming. They probably have a lot of well handicapped horses now. Has the headgear on for the first time and drops down to class 6 for the first time in 8 runs,

    Handicapping / Weight Pulls.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Handicapping / Weight Pulls.

    Another question. How many use weight pulls between re-opposing horses as a significant factor when workinf out selections?
    I usually only consider it important if it's overwhelmimg, like 7 lbs for a neck or something like that.........and also if that race was recent, not 3 or 4 runs ago. In general I don't pay much attention to weight at all - I figure that in most races the weight differential isn't big enough to seperate the horses by weight (in fact that's the whole purpose of the Handicap, the weights equalise the chances) when you can seperate them by other factors, like the going, the track, current form etc. In most handicaps horses are all going to be within a few pounds of the average weight for the race and I don't think a few pounds is as important as 'does it act on the track ?', 'does it act on the going?'........is it in decent form ? ........etc I do however pay attention to the handicap marks, wether they're going down or up..........I know that the mark bears a direct relation to the weight, but i lke to think of handicap marks as determining what level of opposition the horse can run against rather than wether it carries 9-4 or 9-1

    Best bet of the day 4th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 4th Nov Kempton - 5.50 - Uncle Fred - win Deserves to be favourite after quite impressive win last time over CD. Has gone up 5lbs but that seems fair enough as he won by nearly 3 lenghs The 6th and 7th both won next time out to frank the form and it looked a good race on paper He's a lightly raced type with just 8 career runs and is open to improvement

    Kempton 4th Nov (AW) (eve)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kempton 4th Nov (AW) (eve) 5.50 Uncle Fred - win Deserves to be favourite after quite impressive win last time over CD. Has gone up 5lbs but that seems fair enough as he won by nearly 3 lenghs The 6th and 7th both won next time out to frank the form and it looked a good race on paper He's a lightly raced type with just 8 career runs and is open to improvement A couple of others I like for the places are Aurorian and at bigger odds Chapter and Verse I'm toying with the idea of 'following a stable' during the AW season to try and get a hang on how they place their horses and see if i can discern any pattern to their runs. Hannon would be a good stable to follow 'cos he has plenty of runners and his winners always seem to be decent prices (presumably because he has a lot of losers as well). Early days yet but the Hannon winner I was on a couple of days ago had run disappointingly through the summer, shown some encouragement on last run, was dropping down the handicap and was stepping up in trip. Same applies to Aurorian. Chapter and Verse has left Barry Hills stable and gone to M Murphy. Made his AW debut last time and ran promisingly behind a decent horse in Burgundy Ice, Won his maiden over 10F but has been running over 8F lately. Should be suited by the step back up to 10F

    Your Professional bets~ Debate Only

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Your Professional bets I'm not getting involved.............:lol Personally, I'm no good at thinking 'value' on horses under 10/1........I can't do the differentation between say 5/1 and 8/1 never mind 6/4 and 2/1 My idea of value is to look for a 25/1 shot that I think has a good chance of getting placed, tho' invariably they finish 4th.

    Kempton 3rd Nov (AW)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kempton 3rd Nov (AW) Nice one Fin I was thinking after yesterdays races, that one which won at massive odds and appeared to have no chance but was well in on old form........ Well, I've been going through todays handicaps looking for horses which are 'well in on their old form' and sure enough the first 2 races....... Lord Of The reins, now 64, best win 80, last win 80 Bookiesindex boy - now 65, best win 73, last win 69 ( ooh, the photo went the other way !) Looking at the remaining races I've noticed....... 3.20 - Inside Story, now 61, best 68, last 63 3.50 - Mafeking, now 83, best 86, last 86 4.20 - Viking Spirit, now 87, best 98, last 98 5.20 - Support Fund, now 68, best 70, last 70 I've used a bit of filtering and common sense here, so I haven't included horses who won off big marks 5 years ago. I've also not included 'Silver Hotspur' in the last because he seems to be such a Southwell specialist and I've only included horses that have run respectably in their last few runs Let's see how they get on !............

    Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Yeah, National Hunt includes all Jumps races - steeplchases, hurdles and Natinal Hunt Flat races (bumpers) Going back to your previous question - the Racing post site has full details of all the Racecourses under the 'Courses' tab at the top. For each course they have a pop up window which gives loads of info including course maps and descriptions You can group certain tracks together by common characteristics. The things to look for are ........ Do they run right handed or left handed (some horses prefer one or the other) Is it 'tight' or 'galloping' - tight tracks would be smaller ovals usually where a large part of the race is around bends, galloping tracks would be bigger usually so the bends are more sweeping (as a general rule big, long striding horses don't handle bends as well as small nippy types !) Is it flat or undulating - similar to above, some horses don't handle tracks that go up and down, others don't mind it. Uphill finish or flat - many courses have an uphill finish (like cheltenham) which puts a premium on stamina - a horse has to get the trip Fences - stiff or easy - this related to what the fences are actually made of, some are 'stiff' so if a horse hits them they're likely to fall. Others are 'easy' like the Grand National where the fences 'give - horses can plough straight through the top two feet without falling Can't think of any others at the moment. ( maybe you could also differentiate them by length of run from the last fence or hurdle - a long run in suits horses coming from behind, hold up types) You can group courses according to the above. So for example Newbury might be left hand, galloping, flat - similar to Wetherby or Newcastle Ascot is right hand, flat, uphill finish, similar to Sandown Cheltenham is left hand, undulating, uphill finish, so similar to Chepstow You just gotta know your courses !............:ok

    How would you change the racing programme?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: How would you change the racing programme? The end of the Flat season is a mess but so is the beginning ! We have Donny and the Lincoln then everyone goes back to bed for 3 weeks. I think they should move Donny back until after the Grand national, then start the Flat with Donny, the Craven Meeting and the Greenham Meeting over one week - that would be a decent 'bang' to start the Flat with Another gripe of mine is the proliferation of Group One races in Europe - the Pattern really needs a shake up. If you have a 3 year old Miler filly you could almost choose a Group One race every week from June to September, it's crazy. No wonder Goldikova never ran against the Ripper. The top horses just avoid each other and all pick up their group one races. The Grand prix de Paris takes 3 year olds away from the King George. I think they need to cut a lot of Group Ones back to group 2 and force the best horses to run against each other if they want the top prizes. The politics of this could be tricky as each country will want to keep it's group one races, - but as a start they could stop creating new group ones !

    How would you change the racing programme?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: How would you change the racing programme? I don't agree, ginge........... The horse population is a pyramid of ability, there are probably 100 bad horses for every half decent one. I think they should maintain the programme for poor horses to give owners a chance of winning something, employment for jockeys and stable staff and betting opportunities for the punters who want to get involved (it's not compulsory to bet on low grade races). I think if you did away with low grade races droves of 'small' owners would just leave the sport, lots of trainers would go to the wall and staff and jockeys would be on the dole. If you look at the all weather, generally low grade fare, the races are usually full - you don't get many 5 or 6 runner handicaps, it's usually up around the course limit In fact I'd go as far to say that low grade racing is thriving and isn't the problem. OK, so it's never going to reach the 'general public', Sky News and Radio 5 will never mention it, 98% of the population won't even know it's going on - but why spoil it for the many people involved ?

    Best bet of the day 2nd Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 2nd Nov Wolv 3.50 - Rehabilitation - EW This one had bits of form on the all weather last winter when finished 3rd and 4th to a couple of AW regulars in Vine Street and Stand Guard, he's had a poor summer on the turf and comes back to AW 5 lbs lower as a result. His last couple of runs are interesting. He was beaten just about a length in a handicap at Lingfield on turf, then last time was noted as being a 'steamer' for an Amateur Riders event at warwick, where he flopped. He seems to be a better horse on the AW, as reflected in handicap marks, he's won at Wolverhampton and has Probert up today. He'll be looking to win to catch up with Tylicki. Not one to put the mortgage on, but he's pretty big odds and it's a poor race

    Wolverhampton 2nd Nov (AW)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wolverhampton 2nd Nov (AW) 3.50 Rehabilitation - EW This one had bits of form on the all weather last winter when finished 3rd and 4th to a couple of AW regulars in Vine Street and Stand Guard, he's had a poor summer on the turf and comes back to AW 5 lbs lower as a result. His last couple of runs are interesting. He was beaten just about a length in a handicap at Lingfield on turf, then last time was noted as being a 'steamer' for an Amateur Riders event at warwick, where he flopped. He seems to be a better horse on the AW, as reflected in handicap marks, he's won at Wolverhampton and has Probert up today. He'll be looking to win to catch up with Tylicki. Not one to put the mortgage on, but he's pretty big odds and it's a poor race.

    Breeders Cup on TV?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Breeders Cup on TV?

    I'm sure i watched ARAZI's amazing win on Ch 4 , didn't they show the first couple of years ?? Remember Brough Scott presenting it i think ??
    Yeah.........they definitely used to show it prior to 1996 when I stopped watching the sport for a few years. I'm guessing they carried on for a few years after that, so i don't know when they stopped I remember watching Arazi as well............Dayjur I think as well ( I seem to remember that he jumped a shadow near the finish), Royal Academy (Piggott out of retirement to win !)
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