Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lingfield Sat 21st Nov Just a point of interest - Arganil in the big sprint His record on the AW is 5 from 5, but the interesting thing is that he's won one race at each track - Lingfield, Wolves, kempton,Southwell and Dundalk Must be the only horse to have done that !
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Re: Lingfield Sat 21st Nov 12.25 - Lord Deevert - EW Three times CD winner, dropped down to below his last wining mark, having his second run back after a break Front runner and has a lowish draw in stall 4, should get the rail hopefully
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Re: Wolverhampton 20th Nov (AW) (eve) I feel a bit robbed there on Dance The Star (my BBoTD) Any Stewards Enquiry ?............:hope
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Re: Best bet of the day 20th Nov 8.50 - Wolv - Dance The Star - win Lightly raced type with a good record on polytrack ( 5 out of 8 won or placed) Has had a couple of runs on turf off 88 and drops back to 85 for it's return to the AW Is usually held up and has a good turn of foot - has comments in race results like - 'rapid progress 2 out' , 'stormed clear' I think it might have a bit of speed over this trip if, as I expect, it's a slow run race - a lot these have been running over further and might get done for toe.
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Re: Get In !!! Re the C&P - I think it's all the Hyperlinks make it too 'big' for my small memory computer............I've only got a little RAM...........:cry But that's by the by............:lol
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Re: Get In !!! Good luck lads.......... I still can't copy and paste from the ATR site.............:( 10 points - Sheilas Castle 10 points - North South Divide 10 points - Tagula Pearl 10 points - Son of Monsieur 50 points - Trip the Light 10 points - Bidable I've tried a different tactic this week - picking a 50 point NAP For the other races I haven't looked at the form, just the list of names and picked something that 'rings a bell' on the basis that it must 'ring a bell' because it's done something that I've remembered in the last few months.
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Re: Best bet of the day 19th Nov Kemp 6.00 - River Kirov - win Best race of the night by miles and the only one I'm gonna bother looking at. Very competitive but I've gone for River Kirov on the basis that he has the best current form with a win in a competitve claimer, then a narrow defeat in a decent looking handicap, both races run in fast times. He seems to have been on an upward curve for a year or so now with a few dips along the way. He had 6 weeks off after his turf runs in the summer and has come back to the AW picking up where he left off last winter. Needs another career best tonight to win off 79 but he's at the bottom of the weights and if he is still improving should cope with the rise since his last win off 75
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Re: Kempton 19th Nov (AW) (Late Afternoon Card) 6.00 River Kirov - win I see we're trying to cover the field between us !.........:lol Best race of the night by miles and the only one I'm gonna bother looking at. Very competitive but I've gone for River Kirov on the basis that he has the best current form with a win in a competitve claimer, then a narrow defeat in a decent looking handicap, both races run in fast times. He seems to have been on an upward curve for a year or so now with a few dips along the way. He had 6 weeks off after his turf runs in the summer and has come back to the AW picking up where he left off last winter. Needs another career best tonight to win off 79 but he's at the bottom of the weights and if he is still improving should cope with the rise since his last win off 75 Plenty of dangers...... Sundae beat my selection easily at Yarmouth in July but has no AW form Beat The Bell was running 'big speed figs' last winter, but hasn't recently Fantasy explorer - in good form but just getting beat now since he's gone up in the weights. Ray of Joy - always runs well over this CD but creeping up the weights for being placed. Shifting Star - 'well in' on old form, should act at this track, coming back off a break and no record of going well fresh Beckermet and Earlsmedic might take each other on for the lead and set it up for a late runner, like River Kirov............:hope
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Re: Kempton 19th Nov (AW) (Late Afternoon Card)
Becketmet is trained by R Fisher' date=' who is based in Ulverston. It must be one hell of a drive down to Kempton from the Lakes :loon [/quote'] ........and it's his only runner of the day ! And........he's had 4 winners and a 2nd from his last 6 runners ! I've just had my initial look and River Kirov is my first choice, but I'll have another go tomorrow -
Re: Kempton 18th Nov (AW) (eve) I've decided to try and steer clear of the class 6 races for a while and the 2YO races and maiden races with not much form to go on.......... So I've only only looked at the last 2 races on the card 8.50 - Wigram's Turn - EW I can't see the odds on favourite getting beaten to be honest but there is just a doubt at the back of my mind - his odds are based on that run behind Gitano Hernando at Wolves and that form looks rock solid with the winner winning a Grade 1 in the USA next time and the 2nd winning a Stakes race at Donny. But that run did seem a bit out of kilter with the rest of his career and I just wonder if he was dragged along in the wake of decent horses Anyway - looking for an EW alternative and Wigram's Turn looks a good place prospect. Without the Fave most of the others are rated around the same 90-95 on OR and my pick is a CD winner who nearly always runs a god race here. He's in good form with a win last time out. He's a hold up horse and has Spencer up, wether that's a positive or not I ain';t sure, but I suppose if Spencer's gonna hold 'em up whatever, he's bound to be more suited to natural hold up horses, 9.20 - King of Defence - Win This one looks to be on the upgrade and won imressively last time. He's lightly raced, a CD winner, and up against a few here who are pretty exposed. Probably short odds, but can't see him getting beat.
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Re: Best bet of the day - Nov 18th Ling 2,00 - Kings Colour - Win Competitive handicap with a few old regulars taking part and really the only 'shock winner' would be Harlech Castle, everything else is in with a shout I'm going with Kings Colour on the basis that he's maybe less exposed than most with just the 14 career runs. He won a couple of handicaps on turf in Aug/Sept and this is his third run back on the AW. I'm not keen on the fact that he's been stuck up a LB for finishing placed last time but that was a good run with a couple of decent yardsticks in Defector and Millfield behind him I'm worried about Gallantry as he was my original pick when I looked at the race last night but I've changed horses this morning.........and that usually only ends in tears.
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Re: Lingfield 18th Nov (AW) Nice one Stu !............:ok 2,00 - Kings Colour Competitive handicap with a few old regulars taking part and really the only 'shock winner' would be Harlech Castle, everything else is in with a shout I'm going with Kings Colour on the basis that he's maybe less exposed than most with just the 14 career runs. He won a couple of handicaps on turf in Aug/Sept and this is his third run back on the AW. I'm not keen on the fact that he's been stuck up a LB for finishing placed last time but that was a good run with a couple of decent yardsticks in Defector and Millfield behind him I'm worried about Gallantry as he was my original pick when I looked at the race last night but I've changed horses this morning.........and that usually only ends in tears.
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Re: Lingfield 18th Nov (AW) 12.00 - My Flame - ew Tentative pick in a poor race Back down on his last (and only) winning handicap mark. He's stepping up in trip as he usually runs over 7 furlongs and he might just have a bit of speed at the finish if he can be held up. He does seem to be a bit awkward and comments from his last 2 runs like 'hung left' and 'went left at start' lead me to think he might be better here at Ling than at Kempton where he's run the last twice If he does need a bit of 'encouragement' from the saddle he has Fallon on board to help him out. Currently 9/1.
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Re: Southwell 17th Nov (AW) Well done fin...........:ok Other winners as well ..........Punching, Swiss Art........ Good day in the thread..........
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Re: Southwell 17th Nov (AW) 2.20 Clear Sailing - Win La Belle Joannie - EW Clear Sailing has a good record at the track - 1222 from 4 runs - and is on his third run back after a break, beaten 10L then 1L, so he's getting closer. He's one of the top rated on Official figures and should probably go off Favourite The Joint Favourite at the moment is Ingleby Princess who won a Claimer here over 7F last time. La belle Joannie was three and a bit lengths behind her, is a lot better off at todays weights and will probably be more suited by the extra furlong. So if IP is a 4/1 shot then the selection looks a good EW punt at around 12/1 on current prices.
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Re: Southwell 17th Nov (AW)
:unsure Blimey.........it drifted out to 13/2 as well.........:loon12.20pm Diamond Blade 1pt lay Horse has a field against it in this race that holds a few that will push hard and take the win,laying:hope -
Re: Southwell 17th Nov (AW) 12.20 - Outer Hebrides - win Just looking at the market leaders here there are a couple that have big doubts on this surface - Diamond Blade and The Name is Frank Outer hebrides won here in June over this CD and has since won on turf from the same mark he runs off today I like the angle that this is his third run back after a break, having had a couple of pipe-openers over 7 furlongs he now reverts to his optimum trip, well he hasn't won at 7F for over 2 years Dickie le Davoir looks OK as an EW punt but he does seem to be in decline now and although he is well in on old form he seems to need a stiff uphill finish to get him into races these days. He might be running on if others are flagging at the finish
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Just wonder if anyone on the forum has multiple accounts on the Racing Post site - I don't mean 'Membership', just ordinary free accounts. I've been using the 'My Ratings' feature for storing my AW speed ratings and it's fab !.......... But thinking ahead I might want to do 'Form Ratings' as well and obviously you can't have 2 different sets of ratings on one horse page...... So i thought of opening a different account in another name and using that for storing Form Ratings Anyone see any problem with that before I try and do it ?........ I don't want them closing my account because I'm trying to open multiple ones...............:lol
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Re: Do you watch every race? I usually just leave RUK on all afternoon and flick over to ATR for specific races that interest me...........but sometimes I'm not really paying attention, it's just somebody talking in the background.........I used to have Radio Five on all day for the same reason.............. If there's something else on I'm watching like footie, cricket etc I make a list of race times of the races I want to watch, usually just group/listed/grade races or handicaps I've studied and just flick over for the races I try and catch all group races on the Flat, I like to watch the evening Kempton fixtures on RUK but flick over to footie while the actual races are on and back to RUK for the inter-race chat and e-mails..........:unsure
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Re: Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW) Rainbow had a good winner as well !........... I thought I had Traphalgar spot on - just didn't have the stamina to maintain a challenge in the last furlong - the winner was always holding him I'd be more interested in him back at 10 furlongs at Ling or kemp in a Class 6 handicap. If you look at the standard times Wolves seems a stiffer test than Kemp or Ling and the races seem to be over extra yardage - 12 furlongs is actually 12 and a quarter furlongs. According to Standard Times, 12F at Wolves is a stiffer test of stamina than 12F at Southwell.............:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day 16th Nov Wolves - 5.00 - Kings Ace - EW Lightly raced but has win and place form within the last 12 months. Ok in the weights, 57 today, has won off 57 and placed off 58, 59 Steps up in trip, possibility of improvement Getting closer last 3 runs, beaten 12L, 7L, 3L Drop in mark from last run Todays jock rode it to it's only win
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Re: Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW) 4.00 Ivory Silk - win Difficult choice between this one and Fantasy Exploer, there doesn't seem to be much between them Both of them are in pretty good form and just a few pound above their last winning marks. Both have good records on the AW and are drawn in 1 and 2 I've plumped for Ivory Silk on the basis that she's a five furlong specialist whereas Fantasy Explorer hasn't won over the minimum since 2006 I also think there's more danger of FE being trapped in on the inside if Tabaret cuts across for the lead as expected. If by nothing else he'll probably be trapped in by Ivory Silk
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Re: Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW) Class 6 Handicaps - 5.00 and 5.30 Keep getting drawn to these Class 6 handicaps for a challenge. If anyone here is old enough to remember Monty Python, these races remind me of the 'Aristocrats Twit of the Year 100 yards Sprint'.........legs all over the place, wandering off in different directions, stopping to have a look round etc. They seem to be pretty random events which throw up a lot of surprise results and big price winners and placed horses. I suppose the reality is that the 'form' is given far too much weight in these races as the horses are unlikely to run the same race twice running. So I'm developing a strategy for looking at these races which involves ignoring the market leaders, because, almost by definition, they're poor value - and looking for one at a bigger price with an angle or two which might see it put in an improved showing. so......... 5.00 - Kings Ace - EW Lightly raced but has win and place form within the last 12 months. Ok in the weights, 57 today, has won off 57 and placed off 58, 59 Steps up in trip, possibility of improvement Getting closer last 3 runs, beaten 12L, 7L, 3L Drop in mark from last run Todays jock rode it to it's only win 5.30 - Can't find anything in this one.
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Re: Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW) 3.30 Lyra's Daemon - EW Got my doubts about the front couple in the market Traphalgar looks well in on turf form, having won a handicap off 79 in June and runnning off 75 here. Also in good form with wins in a Seller and a Claimer last 2 runs. My doubt concerns the trip/going - looks to be a firm ground horse on turf and stepping up 2 furlongs plus on this more testing surface might just find out his stamina Force Group is also well in having won off 74 and running on 70 today. All his best form is with cut in the ground, so no problem with the track and he gets the trip. Probably should be favourite and is the most likely winner. But he has gone up a couple of pounds for finishing 2nd last time and I don't like that and his odds are pretty skinny Lyra's Daemon is lightly raced, just 6 career runs (2 wins), has won off 70, same mark she runs off today, she's a fresh horse having her third run after a long break and getting closer in the previous 2 runs. Steps up in trip and has to be taken on trust that'll she'll get it, but she is unexposed and open to improvement in a field of largely known quantities.
Lingfield Sat 21st Nov
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Lingfield Sat 21st Nov 3.40 Presvis - win Not a very startling selection, but can anyone see him being beaten ? He's a group one horse running in a listed race against a pretty poor bunch in pattern race terms OK, so it's probably a warm up before theu ship him out to Dubai or Hong Kong or somewhere, but he still ought to win at a canter.