Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Southwell 22nd Dec (AW) 2.55 - Profits Reality - win Goes well on this track but usually wins over a furlong further than todays race. Goes particularly well in small fields. Only 5 runners today - a couple of them have never won handicaps, a couple are up in trip, most of them have no Southwell form Profits Reality can win this by going to them front and stretching them out
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Re: Southwell 22nd Dec (AW) 1.25 - Best One - win I've been put off my EW selection, Northern Empire, by the draw - he's in the highest stall by the near rail and that seems to be a kiss of death at Southwell over 5 furlongs. It appears that you need to be in the middle of the track. Maybe he'll drop another few pounds in the weights if he gets beat and I've filed him away for another day. Looking at the market leaders there's a few here in good form. I think Thoughtsofstardom could struggle with a 6 lb penalty for a half length win. First Swallow looks good but he has a high draw to overcome Best One is in cracking form with a second to Spining Bailiwick, then winning here over CD. The second that day won yesterday to frank the form. He's only up 4 lbs for the win which seems reasonable as he was over 3 lengths clear of the 3rd that day
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Yeah........I think my attitude to the AW was a hangover from my 10 years away from the sport. In the mid-90s it was really appaling stuff. It was almost the case that looking at turf races you'd dismiss any horse that had run on the AW as a matter of course 'cos it must be useless ! Then my first 'winter' back I concentrated on the Jumps naturally and it was only my second 'winter' back that I looked at the AW again........probably 'cos I was going through a bad patch over the sticks (grass is greener syndrome !) I'm sticking with it basically because there's usually only one meeting a day and it's easier to keep a grip on - plus with the almost ubiqitous 'standard' going it's quite conducive to 'speed figures' which is something that's always interested me. I'm quite getting into the class 4/5 handicaps........each one is like a crossword puzzle. It provides mental stimulation !
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats That's intersting, thanks Fin..........:ok My 'impression' has been that bigger priced ones win quite often on the AW.........horses around 8/1 to 12/1..........and I've put this down to there being a lot of Class 6 handicaps where the horses are a bit inconsistant and the favourites don't always repeat the run which earned them favouritism in the first place !
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Cheers jay..........I hadn't seen that one before. There's The Actuary site - he posts up his Speed Figures for the AW Meets the evening before racing........not quite sure what the % figures mean, but he ranks all the horses in order and puts up the results wether he wins or not ! http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/ I think 'The Actuary' is a member here, but he hasn't posted for a while.
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats That reminds me..........does anyone know of any websites that concentrate on AW racing ? Most of the ones that I've seen have all been closed for years........:sad
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats This is a useful site for Draw stats....... http://www.drawbias.com/ They have a 'Chart' for each distance at each track (includes turf and AW) covering the last 3 years and it's 'fairly' easy to understand the charts when you look at them for a few minutes and work out how ir's constructed.
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Re: No Racing !!!! Yeah..........I'll be complaining on Boxing Day that there's too much racing ! :lol I suppose this break does give me the chance to study up the Wolves AW card........... And it also goes that the King George is such a stupendously exciting race 'cos we've had no racing for 4 days ! RUK usually has some good programmes over Christmas - Reviews of the Year, that kind of thing
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Re: No Racing !!!! Crikey..........Christmas day is on Friday !.............:lol So it's only 2 extra days off not 3...........still, I reckon they should have racing up to Wednesday at least !
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Blimey.........I've just noticed that there's no racing on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday ! What's that all about ? I mean, Christmas Day, fair enough..........everyone should have Christmas day off. But everybody else is working up to Christmas Eve on Friday........it's a normal working week up until then. How come the Racing Industry gets 3 days off before Christmas day ? And what exactly are we all meant to do ? Watch telly ?.................:loon
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Re: Best bet of the day 21st Dec Kempton 3.35 - Fishforcompliments - EW Another one that is dropping down the weights. He was winning off 90 in June and runs off 77 today. He doesn't win very often but has been getting closer in his last couple of runs. Last time was quite a decent effort behind Fathsta over todays CD in what looked a better race than this.
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Re: Kempton 21st Dec (AW) Sticking with the EW fancies for the time being....... 2.30 Sadeek - EW This horse does rather appear to be in terminal decline but as a result his mark has fallen steadily. He's now rated 10 lbs below his last win which came in 2008. Had a break of a couple of months then ran 5th on his return. That was his best run for a while. But mainly here I'm going on trainerform - the Smart yard has had 16 of it's last 21 runners in the frame ! This horse is a CD winner and well handicaped - if the stable form includes a bit of improvement from him, he could have an EW shout. 3.35 Fishforcompliments - EW Another one that is dropping down the weights. He was winning off 90 in June and runs off 77 today. He doesn't win very often but has been getting closer in his last couple of runs. Last time was quite a decent effort behind Fathsta over todays CD. 3.35 - Vhujon - EW I also think today might be the time to catch 'Vhujon' - he's pretty quirky but has a good record coming back from breaks - presumably he's forgotten what it's about after a few months away but reverts to playing up once he remembers on his second run back......... 4.05 - Baunagain - EW With an odd-on favourite and the dead 8 runners (as of now, watch for a NR !) there's some fancy prices about the other horses. Autumn Blades is currently 7/1 and looks an EW steal ! But I'm going for a big priced one - Baunagain has mainly been running in Class 3 races recently and it's last 2 outings have been over 5 furlongs which is too short for him. His best form to date has been at 6 furlongs but I'll give him a chance stepping up to 7 furlongs and back in Class 4. Chapple-Hyam doesn't have many runners on the AW but his last 2 have finished 1st and 3rd.
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats A few thoughts about Dundalk....... My impression is that they see it as more of an addition to the Flat racing season than as an alternative to winter NH racing. They tend to hold meetings in Feb to April and again late Sept to Dec...........in other words it serves to exend the turf season and provide a stand by to ensure some racing if the weather is really bad at the start and end of the season They don't hold a lot of meetings during the height of the summer. Compared to over here there isn't a lot of racing in Ireland - they only seem to have one meeting a day on most days and they quite often seem to have days with no meetings. Perhaps the thought is that there just isn't the horse population to keep Flat racing going through the winter and if they did it might only divert horses away from hurdling and weaken the NH meets ? As it goes - Dundalk has been pretty much a runaway success - almost every race seems to have the maximium field. So I guess they'll have a rethink...........I did hear on telly that they are reviewing it to see if winter racing is worthwhile.
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats A snippet of news......... I heard on the telly the other day that Longchamp is to install an AW track as part of their redevelopment. This could have a big effect on UK all weather racing in a few years time - the prize money over there is bound to be much higher than here I expect that AW performers here will be geared to raiding Longchamp This might divert the better horses away from here.........or it might persuade trainers to try out better horses on the AW here knowing that there are valuble races in France for any that take to it. I think the most likely outsome is that in a few years we'll see a de facto 'European Pattern' of Listed and Group 3 races throughout the winter, which is something I'd really look forward to !
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Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats
A question regarding times' date=' do the times (speed figures) differ much from aw track to track. How many seconds difference is there in say a 5f sprint at Wolverhampton compared to a 5f sprint at Lingfield or Kempton etc?[/quote'] What a coincidence !.......I was already working on this for my first post on the thread before you posted !............:lol Here are the RP standard times.......for sprint distances 5F 57.70 - Lingfield 58.00 - Southwell 58.50 - Dundalk 59.00 - Wolves 59.50 - Kempton 6F 70.60 - Lingfield 71.50 - Kempton 71.50 - Dundalk 73.20 - Wolves 74.30 - Southwell I've converted the odd distances at Wolves into exact 5 and 6 furlong equivalents. Lingfield appears to be the sharpest or fastest at both trips Southwell is second 'fastest' at 5 furlongs but this is deceptive as it's the only straight track - the others are all around a bend which slows the horses down. Once they go round a bend over 6F Southwell becomes the slowest, as you might expect Wolves is a slow track i think - I've certainly noticed 'kickback' watching races, but not as much as at Southwell I can't explain why Kempton is relatively slow at 5F but fast at 6F - I think it is possibly to do with the inner and outer bends, but I might have to explore that further. -
Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread for the AW followers to post general thoughts, news, ideas, stats, any research that you've done, strategy for assessing races, thoughts on the different tracks etc. I don't mean tips for the days racing or horses to follow which might be covered in the daily threads but more general things which might help out fellow posters or give a point for debate. Any contributions welcome ! :ok
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Re: Kempton 20th Dec (AW)
Yeah, cheers chris..........I might stick with EW shots for a while, tho' the other two both finished 4th, which is what I expect EW shots to do....:unsureYeah credit to everyone again today several nice winners best has to be yours ted and trotter (end ya kempton losing run :ok) -
Re: best bet of the day - 20th dec Kempton 2.15 - Dream Of Fortune - EW Has fallen 9lbs since his last handicap run 4 outings ago. Since then has been running in sellers and claimers. One thing that has struck me looking at the AW in the last couple of months is how underestimated some of the 'Claiming' form is........despite these races usually being Class 6 they are often equivalent to Class 4 handicaps. Dream of Fortune ran well in a Claimer 2 runs ago behind Full Toss and Traphalgar, both of whom have come out and franked the form in handicap company
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Re: Kempton 20th Dec (AW) I'm going down the EW route today as well as I can't pick a winner at Kempton to save my life. 2.15 - Dream Of Fortune - EW Has fallen 9lbs since his last handicap run 4 outings ago. Since then has been running in sellers and claimers. One thing that has struck me looking at the AW in the last couple of months is how underestimated some of the 'Claiming' form is........despite these races usually being Class 6 they are often equivalent to Class 4 handicaps. Dream of Fortune ran well in a Claimer 2 runs ago behind Full Toss and Traphalgar, both of whom have come out and franked the form in handicap company. 4.15 - Benandonner - EW Another one who comes here on the back of a good run in a Claimer, winning last time out. The second went down by a nose to Autumn Blades in a handicap the other day and the 3rd won a handicap next time out. Previously the selection had finished 3rd in another decent Claimer, the winner going on to place in a Listed race next time. Has fallen a couple of pounds since his last handicap run and is now 4lbs below his last win. 4.45 - Resplendent Alpha - EW Running into form now judged on his last outing when he finished 2nd to a progressive type in Absa Lutte. Well handicapped when he does find his form being 9lbs below his last win and having dropped 6lbs over his last 3 runs. I'm surprised the handicapper didn't put him back up a few pounds for that 2nd last time out but it leaves him looking on a good mark. I see these are the EW Selections of choice on the thread, so I guess all their prices will collapse..............:moon I don't really think anything under 10/1 is worth doing EW because you lose if your selection is placed...........I bet all these 3 go off under 10/1. Edit.........you don't really 'lose' with a 10/1 EW shot but it effectively becomes odds-on the place...........
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Re: Best bet of the day 19th December 3.35 Lingfield - Evident Pride - win Has a good chance today running off a lower mark than his last win He's a CD winner and comes here after running a couple of decent runs behind Mister New York and Kings Salute. Has a bit to find with Mister New York but that one has risen a lot in the weights. I like horses that are 'getting closer' in sucessive races, particularly if they're well in on fairly recent winning form. This chap has been beaten 18 lengths, 6 lengths, 3 lengths in his last 3 runs..........going up in class each time from class 5 to class 4 to class 3...........now drops back to class 4 and should be ready to score !
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Re: Best bet of the day 17th Dec Southwell 1.00 - Boundless Prospect - win This looks a good chance for the 10 year old to record another win. Ran well last time, coming out of the pack to get within 2 lengths of Shadows Lengthen. Maybe better at just shorter than 12 furlongs but in a small field shold be able to lob along in touch and save some energy for the finish 5 lbs below his last winning mark and in good nick, course winner at 11 furlongs
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Re: Southwell 17th Dec (AW) 3.00 West End Lad I guess Mozedaya is the most likely winner. Is in good nick, is still below her last winning mark, loves it round here and is well suited to a small field where she can dominate from the front. But...........she is odds on............has gone up 3 lbs for being placed and might not get it all her own way with more or less all these being front runners. West End Lad might be a bit of value for an upset. Comes here after a break and has won before coming back from a lay off, CD winner, below last winning mark and is the only one apart from Mozzy who has won off a higher mark than today
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Re: Southwell 17th Dec (AW) 1.00 Boundless Prospect This looks a good chance for the 10 year old to record another win. Ran well last time, coming out of the pack to get within 2 lengths of Shadows Lengthen. Maybe better at just shorter than 12 furlongs but in a small field shold be able to lob along in touch and save some energy for the finish 5 lbs below his last winning mark and in good nick, course winner at 11 furlongs
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Re: Lingfield 16th Dec (AW) 1.35 - Makshoof I've gone for Makshoof as well. My short list was 4....... Radiator Rooney - better at 5 furlongs ? Greystoke prince - better over further ? Grand palace - well in, not in great form, trainer not in great form Which leaves me with Makshoof - really well in on turf wins, has run pretty well last two times over CD, getting closer, trainer won the first race at 12 o'clock
Best bet of the day 22nd Dec
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best bet of the day 22nd Dec Southwell 1.25 - Best One - win I've been put off my EW selection, Northern Empire, by the draw - he's in the highest stall by the near rail and that seems to be a kiss of death at Southwell over 5 furlongs. It appears that you need to be in the middle of the track. Maybe he'll drop another few pounds in the weights if he gets beat and I've filed him away for another day. Looking at the market leaders there's a few here in good form. I think Thoughtsofstardom could struggle with a 6 lb penalty for a half length win. First Swallow looks good but he has a high draw to overcome Best One is in cracking form with a second to Spining Bailiwick, then winning here over CD. The second that day won yesterday to frank the form. He's only up 4 lbs for the win which seems reasonable as he was over 3 lengths clear of the 3rd that day