Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Kempton Jan 13th (AW) (Twilight) 7.15 - Halingdal - EW Having posted on Fin's 'Snowy Kempton' thread about the differences between the inner and outer tracks this one just caught my eye as a potential horse which might do better on the outer track Usually runs over 10 furlongs (inner track) and comes with a late rattle and fails to get home, sometimes runs into a place. Although you'd think such a horse wouldn't be suited by dropping back in trip, the shorter distance today might be offset by running on the outer track with a longer home straight. The longer home straight should suit running on racers as they more time after the last bend to get going and pick up Has gone up a couple of pounds in the weights for finishing 2nd last time, which would normally put me off, but I'll see how it pans out ! Could be a system in the making - horses which run on late over 10F at Kempton dropping back to 8 furlongs - it flies in the face of logic, but we'll see !
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Re: Snowy Kempton Another factor at Kempton is the Innner and Outer bends at the top bend of the track The 5F and 10F races are run on the Inner bend, all the others are on the Outer bend Logically the inner bend races should suit prominent runners and the outer bend races should be more suitable for hold up horses because of the relative lengths of the home straight On races on the outer bend the hold up horses have a much longer home straight to get into top gear running and catch the front runners. They also then have the advantage of the 'cut away' where the inner bend joins the track, which means they can go on the inside or the outside of the field. You'd think on the inner bend with a short home straight a front runner or prominent runner who can speed up off the bend would leave the hold up horses with only about 2 furlongs to catch him in and they'd have to go round the outside.
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Re: The Punters Lounge 100/1 Challenge
I think he mentionned it but went for something else in the race........it was the one where it 'nearly' fitted his new system but there was another one in the race that did fit it............eek !Stu had 40/1 winner with Bold Rose the other day at Lingfield I believe -
Re: The Punters Lounge 100/1 Challenge
Dannyfield had a 25/1 winner on the Southwell thread, Sunday 10th Jan........:okHas anyone backed a 25/1 winner yet? I havent seen any myself. -
Re: Best bet of the day 12th Jan Southwell 1.50 - Russian Music - win Lots of non runners means there'll be no price about this one, probably go off odds on........... Won very impressively at the track last time, should be suited by the extra couple of furlongs and is a big strapping horse who should carry topweight with no problem Might have been better if everything was running to give more chance of a decent pace but he looks like a good traveller whatever pace they go
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Re: Never able to challenge
Looks a bit of a monkey to me.......... Last 2 runs he's been reluctant to go near the stalls, he's usually slowly into stride or 'awkward leaving stalls'.......... Looks a tricky horse and a tricky ride - and they're putting a claimer up tomorrow. Poor lad...........:lolIs this meeting likely to go ahead tomorrow? Divine force has a good chance to win tomorrow, unlucky lto, slowly away and unable to get get past other horses when coming strongly, maybe given a slightly poor ride, I didn't say that in my thread as I didn't want to sound like a pocket talker. Upped to 7f which I don't think will be a massive problem but thought 6f was ideal. What do we think? -
Just looking at 'Divine Force' in the 3.30 at Wolves tomorrow and the race comment for it's last run says 'progress and not clear run 1f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, never able to challenge' It finished 3rd.........and the first four home were seperated by just over a length, ............4 horses within a length sounds like a bunch finish to me............ I just wonder what they mean by 'never able to challenge'..........it's not as though he was 3rd but beaten 6 lengths ! Surely he must have been 'challenging' to finish less than a length behind the winner !
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Re: Southwell - Sunday 10th Jan
Cheers zero.........praise from the Master is praise indeed ! :okTrotter great laying mate :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap And congrats to all winners in this thread :clap:clap -
Re: best bet of the day - Sun 10th Jan 2.50 Follow The Flag - win CD winner last time out beating likely market rival Elusive Fame by 3/4 of a length. Think he might confirm the form despite going up by 4 lbs. Elusive Fame has gone up by 2 lbs for the place, so not much between them in terms of weight changes. Follow The Flag had been running over further prior to that win and looked like they weren't sure what his best trip was. Hopefully now they've got a win with him at 7 furlongs there'll be some improvement to come if this is indeed his trip
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Re: Southwell - Sunday 10th Jan 25/1 winner !!............. Nice one Danny ! :clap:clap
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Re: Lay of the day - Sun 10th Jan Southwell - 1.50 - Via Mia - Lay - First attempt at over 10 furlongs and first visit to this track. Stamina on the dams side but his sire is a sprint stallion. So the doubt is wether he will get the trip. Drops in to Selling company for the first time and has tons in hand on Official Ratings. Undoubtedly the class act in the field, just gotta hope he won't get home !
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Re: Southwell - Sunday 10th Jan Been looking for a few short price LAYS .......... 1.20 - Brazilian Brush - Lay - won over 6F last time by 10 lengths wearing first time blinkers. Doubts today - will he be suited by drop in trip ?, will blinkers work again ? That 6F race was round a bend and he laid up behind pacemakers. Not easy to do that over a straight 5F. He was 18/1 last time so it was a 'surprise win' and a bit out of keeping with his recent form. Suggests that might have been a one-off due to the race panning out for him 1.50 - Inside Story - Lay - He's CD winner but hasn't run over this length of trip for the last 15 runs. Extra couple of furlongs on the Slow going might just catch him out as he must have got used to the racing pace and stamina requirements of shorter trips 1.50 - Via Mia - Lay - First attempt at over 10 furlongs and first visit to this track. Stamina on the dams side but his sire is a sprint stallion. So the doubt is wether he will get the trip. Drops in to Selling company for the first time and has tons in hand on Official Ratings. Undoubtedly the class act in the field, just gotta hope he won't get home ! 2.50 - Elusive Fame - Lay - has conditions to suit, I'm opposing him purely on handicap marks. Went up 3 lbs for a neck win 6 runs ago and has gone up another lb, then another 2 lb, for being placed. Handicapper seems to be one step ahead of him race by race. Looks a cert for a 'place'
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Re: Lay of the Day - Fri 8/1/10
I like this comp' date=' good fun.[/quote'] Yeah, I like it as well..........my first thought looking at a race now is to look for lays rather than winners ! It's something I've never done before so makes a refreshing change. -
Re: Lay of the Day - Fri 8/1/10
This is really hard innit ! My one duly got beat but drifted like a barge in the betting so I'll probably only get a few pence.......... My first selection in the comp was a loser and it's taking me 5 or 6 winners to get back to Zero !..............:unsureJust when I started a good run too :sad -
Re: Lay of the Day - Fri 8/1/10 2.30 Ling - Luberon - Lay Bit surprised an hour or so ago to see this one as 3/1 favourite on the Post 'latest odds'. Drifted out a bit now but is still showing as joint second favourite.......... Looking at the runners it was the first one I eliminated. Hasn't won for 18 months, is still higher in the weights than his last win, has only run twice 2009 and was beaten 10 lengths and 15 lengths OK, it might have been a decent horse a few years ago but my impression is that these better class handicaps are usually won by 'up and comers' not horses on the downgrade. Front runner drawn wide - will have to come round the field to get to the front (only a small field though, to be fair) 7 years old - might need more than the one run in December to get him fit.
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Re: BBOTD - Friday 8th Jan Ling 2.30 Mildoura - win There aren't a lot of Class 2 handicaps on the AW so horses in that grade tend to run against each other all the time and the handicapper usually has them about right Mildoura is a newcomer to these ranks having won impressively twice in class 4 races and hasn't gone up a lot in the weights. Looks to be improving, acts on the track, distance no problem My speed figs have him running class 2 times in class 4 races so I think he should be up to this level
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Re: Lingfield - 8/1/10 2.30 Mildoura - win There aren't a lot of Class 2 handicaps on the AW so horses in that grade tend to run against each other all the time and the handicapper usually has them about right Mildoura is a newcomer to these ranks having won impressively twice in class 4 races and hasn't gone up a lot in the weights. Looks to be improving, acts on the track, distance no problem My speed figs have him running class 2 times in class 4 races so I think he should be up to this level
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Re: Racecourse trial of decimal odds set for the spring/ How would you change racing? Well........despite being a bit of a laugh at the marketing johnnies coming up with pseudo management speak.........I think there might be something in the 'Premierisation' idea........ Having a Premier League of meeting throughout the year. As racing fans we already know what the 'premier' meetings are without having it marketed to us.........but your average man in the street would see 6 racecards taking up 2 or 3 pages of his paper and just skip over them............he has no idea of the difference between Cheltenham and Bangor, it's just lists of horses names and too many of them to merit casual interest The general sports media on telly or radio don't cover the days racing partly I think because there's so much of it and they have a two minute sports bulletin.......... I think maybe if they could establish a 'Premier League' of meetings through the year the media might pick up on those and give more coverage once they were given the 'green light' to ignore the run of the mill meetings. Newspapers might only print racecards for the PL Meets but then have space for stories about the races, the horses, the jockeys etc I suppose it's about making some race meetings events to try and get people interested I can give you an analogy from another sport........rugby. I haven't more than a passing interest in rugby but I'll watch the International matches because they're big events and have lots of publicity and telly and radio coverage. I know that there are club matches going on all through the season but I have no interest in them at all. It doesn't stop me watching England v Wales And who knows - if you can get people interested by promoting big racing events they might decide to go to a racetrack some day
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Re: Kempton 6th Jan Another card tomorrow at Kempton..........I suppose that's a bit unlikely to go ahead ? Also Lingfield tomorrow must be in doubt Southwell !...........migt be ok ?.........they managed to race yesterday
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Re: Lingfield 6th Jan It's snowing pretty hard in London now and looks like it's set in for the night............. Whatever snow we have in Central London, they'll have it a lot worse out where Lingfield and Kempton are............. I'm not very hopeful for tomorrow.........
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Re: Lingfield 6th Jan
Also worth noting that Machinist was a 10 year old, a veteran........ I usually reckon that horses over about 7 years old will need a run or two to get the stiffness out of their aging joints........... I know how they feel..............:(Always forget to mention something :wall ... I'm basing my theory only on races under a mile on the AW. Races over that I can understand that horses with a few recent races may be better off. -
Re: Lingfield 6th Jan 1.00 I Confess Has a good draw in 1 for a front running type.........and is slipping down the handicap. Now below his last winning mark All his career wins have come at this track and he returns here after a couple of runs in decent looking races at Kempton There's a couple of lightly raced potential improvers in Dajen and Diapason and a couple of 'regulars' in Rondeau and Shaded edge who might be competing for the places, so I Confess could go off at an EW price..........
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Re: Lingfield 6th Jan
The 'Life' forecasts are rubbish ! They have Elusive Wave as favourite for that race........I reckon he'll go off about 10/1............:lol1.00 Rondeau Worth a look now back at Lingfield after a bad draw at kempton LTO. Previous to that, ran a sound race behind seek the fair land over this trip & course & only went down a hd in defeat. That winner went to a narrow defeat next time out in a class 4. The sp tissue reads 14/1, how wrong is that, this horse will go off no bigger than 5's. -
Re: Quick Answers Only Denman ?
Best bet of the day 13th Jan
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best bet of the day 13th Jan Kempton - 7.15 - Halingdal - EW Having posted on Fin's 'Snowy Kempton' thread about the differences between the inner and outer tracks this one just caught my eye as a potential horse which might do better on the outer track Usually runs over 10 furlongs (inner track) and comes with a late rattle and fails to get home, sometimes runs into a place. Although you'd think such a horse wouldn't be suited by dropping back in trip, the shorter distance today might be offset by running on the outer track with a longer home straight. The longer home straight should suit running on racers as they have more time after the last bend to get going and pick up Has gone up a couple of pounds in the weights for finishing 2nd last time, which would normally put me off, but I'll see how it pans out ! Could be a system in the making - horses which run on late over 10F at Kempton dropping back to 8 furlongs - it flies in the face of logic, but we'll see !