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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Handicap Marks - Last Run As well as comparing winers marks with theit 'last win' I also compared them with their last run in a handicap race. Results are quite interesting........ Higher - 24 (includes horses with penalties) Same - 39 Lower - 35 This suggests that whilst you should be looking at horses running off a higher mark than their last win most winners are running off the same or a lower mark than their last run. Some 75% approx of winners were running off the same or a lower mark than their last run in a handicap. These figures were pretty much the same in higher and lower grade races So........putting this together with the stats above I see a system forming - look for horses that are higher than their last win but the same or lower than their last run Typically this would be a horse that has won a race, gone up in the weights, had a couple or more runs and started to fall back down again but is still higher than it's last win. I'm gonna call these horses the 'Up and Downers' !.............:lol

    All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Handicap Marks - Last Win When I'm looking at AW handicaps I tend to look for horses who's handicap mark has fallen below their last winning mark But it hasn't done me much good in finding winners ! So I've done a bit of research on the last 3 weeks handicaps on the AW - about a hundred races. Figures below don't include horses winning a handicap for the first time as they have no 'last winning mark' Todays mark compared with last handicap win.......... Higher - 50 Same - 4 Lower - 22 So - approximately two thirds of the races were won by horses on higher marks than their last win ! This was even more pronounced in the better races. I divided them into 2 groups - Class 5 and above and Classes 6/7 For classes 5 and above the figures are - Higher - 33 Same - 3 Lower - 6 Over 75% of the better handicaps are won by horses running off a higher mark than their last win ! The picture is quite different at the lower end - Higher - 17 Same - 1 Lower - 16 In class 6/7 races it's about 50/50 between up and down All in all these figures suggest you should be concentrating on horses that are improving rather than the ones falling back to a winning mark Small sample size though - might carry this on for a while, see if it changes.............

    Relevant books

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Relevant books One of the first racing books I read was 'Always Back Winners' by Stewart Simpson..... http://www.amazon.co.uk/Always-Back-Winners-How-Horses/dp/1874645043 I can summarise it for you to save you buying it.......... Back topweights in handicaps at undulating or turning tracks. The undulations and bends slow the horses down so it's difficult for any horse to slip the field and the races tend to be decided in bunch finishes where the classier horses have the best finishing kick. Edit - the second part of the theory is that it's easier to carry the weight if the field is going slowly. Makes sense - a suitcase must seem heavier if you're running flat out carrying it rather than just strolling along..........

    Best Bet Of The Day - Tues 29th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Tues 29th Dec Southwell 1.20 - Canadian Danehill - EW Has won here in the past and has dropped back down to a winning mark again. One of those 'usual suspect' handicap sprinters who wins in his turn and not always at short odds. Difficult to predict when he'll win but looks pretty good odds for an EW shout today Equuleus Pictor is a similar kind it seems and he did run well last time but doesn't always put 2 good runs back to back If I'm reading it right Colorus appears to have gone up 4 lbs for finishing 2nd, putting him 8 lbs above his last winning mark, which seems harsh. He doesn't look well handicapped

    Southwell 29/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 29/12 3.35 Final Salute - EW One from the B Smart yard - lightly raced with just 8 career runs and has finished 2nd here in the past so appears to handle the track. Has been having long breaks between his racing lately so hopefully there's nothing physically wrong with him and he might be coming on for each run Although he finished last on his last outing it was a hot race behind Seek The Fair land and he was competitive for 5 furlongs before weakening. Down 3 lbs for that which I guess is neither here nor there when you've been beaten 16 lengths - I recjon he's had a couple of runs on poly and returning here in a weaker race can see him run into a place !

    Southwell 29/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 29/12 1.20 Canadian Danehill - EW Has won here in the past and has dropped back down to a winning mark again. One of those 'usual suspect' handicap sprinters who wins in his turn and not always at short odds. Difficult to predict when he'll win but looks pretty good odds for an EW shout today Equuleus Pictor is a similar kind it seems and he did run well last time but doesn't always put 2 good runs back to back If I'm reading it right Colorus appears to have gone up 4 lbs for finishing 2nd, putting him 8 lbs above his last winning mark, which seems harsh. He doesn't look well handicapped

    Almost suicide!!!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Almost suicide!!! Oh, come on guys.........cut jay a bit of slack........ It's the punters inalienable right to moan about 'what ifs'........it keeps the hope of that 'big pay day' alive ! :ok Plenty of time for hard boiled cynicism as the years go by, but jay is pretty new to the game. Well done on that WN winner !............:ok

    Best bet of the day 27th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 27th Dec Southwell 2.50 Silver Hotspur - EW This one has had a bit of a lean year after racking up 7 wins here at Southwell in 2008. His handicap mark has dropped by around 10lbs as a result. He's mainly been campaigned on polytrack lately which doesn't seem to suit him and a cynic might think this has been a deliberate ploy to get his mark down Ran here at Southwell last time out for the first time in 12 runs and ran better, finishing 4 lengths behind Salerosa, who was on a roll at the time. Down another 2 lbs after that race

    Southwell 27th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 27th Dec 3.25 Hit The Switch - win Lot of out of form horses here - so I'll stick with the one who's been winning lately He's won 2 out of his last 4, both over this CD. Has gone up 3 lbs for a neck win last time, which would normally put me off, but he is only 3 and might be improving. And in a poor race he might not need to improve to win with a higher mark

    Southwell 27th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 27th Dec 2.50 Silver Hotspur - EW This one has had a bit of a lean year after racking up 7 wins here at Southwell in 2008. His handicap mark has dropped by around 10lbs as a result. He's mainly been campaigned on polytrack lately which doesn't seem to suit him and a cynic might think this has been a deliberate ploy to get his mark down Ran here at Southwell last time out for the first time in 12 runs and ran better, finishing 4 lengths behind Salerosa, who was on a roll at the time. Down another 2 lbs after that race.

    Southwell 27th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 27th Dec 1.10 Eseej - win Looks to have a good chance here as he's dropped 4 lbs since his last run which puts him back on the same mark he won off over this CD 4 runs ago Takes a bit of a leap of faith to back a horse that's been beaten a total of over 80 lengths in his last 3 runs, but he's had 6 weeks off to regroup and have a rest. Hopefully he'll come back in better form 1.10 Applaude - EW One at a big price for an EW flutter - this one has only ever won in Selling and Claiming company but if you go back a year or so he finished 2nd in a couple of handicaps off marks in the 70s. Runs today off 58 with a decent young claimer taking another 5 off. He finished 2nd here in a claimer over this CD in August so appears to handle the track. Since then he's won 2 races in selling company but got well thrashed last time at Wolves. Appears to be a soft ground horse on turf so I'm hoping that last run was down to not handling polytrack..........:unsure

    Southwell 27th Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Southwell 27th Dec 1.40 Grimes Faith - ew Fancy this one in the Claimer just on his course record - he's won the last 4 times he's run over this CD, all within the last year. Been a bit out of form lately and has a high draw to overcome but he hasn't run here for 10 runs and hopefully a return to the fibresand will liven him up a bit

    Wolverhampton - Boxing Day

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wolverhampton - Boxing Day

    4.25 Wolverhampton Supercast - well handicapped on pick of best form, goes well at track and looks overpriced at 25/1 pp. Ew.
    That was the one I had in mind for an EW shot as well, but I've been put off by the yard's lack of runners recently.........no runners in the last month, I wonder if there's a problem in the yard ? So I'm going for a winner........ Wolv 4.25 - Plush - win Has come into his own in the last year or so for a late developing horse (6 years old but just 18 career runs) Has won 5 of his last 9 runs, all 5 wins coming here at Wolves. Won here last time out after nearly a year off and won fairly cosily so a 3 lb rise is fair enough. Could come on a bit for that run after such a long absence.(or he might 'bounce'.........:unsure ) He's won 2 races in the space of 3 days last year so hopefully he won't bounce, Quite a competitive race with several horses in good recent form so althouigh my chap will probably go off favourite, he might be 3/1 or so. I'll be disappointed if he goes off lower than 3/1

    Best Bet of the Day - BOXING DAY

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day - BOXING DAY Wolv 4.25 - Plush - win Has come into his own in the last year or so for a late developing horse (6 years old but just 18 career runs) Has won 5 of his last 9 runs, all 5 wins coming here at Wolves. Won here last time out after nearly a year off and won fairly cosily so a 3 lb rise is fair enough. Could come on a bit for that run after such a long absence.(or he might 'bounce'.........:unsure ) He's won 2 races in the space of 3 days last year so hopefully he won't bounce, Quite a competitive race with several horses in good recent form so althouigh my chap will probably go off favourite, he might be 3/1 or so. I'll be disappointed if he goes off lower than 3/1

    Wolverhampton - Boxing Day

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wolverhampton - Boxing Day 3.55 Don't like this at all - looking at the current prices I don't really fancy the favourite Kames Park. Then you have 4 horses between 9/2 and 6/1 - too short for EW Then 3 outsiders who I don't fancy What a bummer - this is 'my' first race after the break and the market is ruining it ! Leave it alone - move on !

    A question regarding Speed Ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: A question regarding Speed Ratings

    Ahhhh I see' date=' so it's generally based on how many lengths a horse has been beaten by previously on that track?[/quote'] What exactly are you looking at ? Are you looking at Topspeed Ratings on the racing post for a future race ? I'm talking about the results of a race that has already taken place. Let's say you have a race on the all weather with 'standard' going........the winner's rating, say 100, is determined by the time. The horses behind him get a rating based on the lengths beaten and relative weights carried So say the second horse is beaten 1 length and carried the same weight as the winner, his rating would be 97 (I think the RP use 3lbs per length for 6 furlong races. This figure gradually goes down as the trip increases until it's 1 lb per length over 2 miles or so) A horse in that race beaten 30 lengths would get a rating of 30x3 = 90 behind the winner, so a rating of 10, depending on relative weights carried If you look at a horses last few runs it might have speed ratings of 80, 62, 75, 24..........the Racing Post 'takes a view' on what it's 'master rating' is and use that for Topspeed for future races. Of course, that 'master rating' will go up and down depending on the horses performances. I believe that's how they do it, tho' I'm not sure about the exact figures they use or at what point they decide to change a horses master rating - maybe they base it on something like the best rating acheived in the last 3 runs, something like that
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