Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: No jumps meetings until Thursday - at the earliest. 'Sir' Bob Cooper had a half decent idea on ATR today........ He said the BHA should use the AW tracks to put on 'Bumper Only' cards to keep the NH yards and jocks ticking over........... Can't see any problem with that unless there aren't enough bumper horses around to fill the cards..........or unless the weather is so bad that they can't physically get to the track, but the AW flat horses manage to get there.
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Re: Racecourse trial of decimal odds set for the spring They've just had an animated debate on R5 between Mark Johnston and a bloke from Racing For Change. Johnston's main point was that this has nothing to do with racing, it's a decision for the betting industry.........and a racing funded organisation like Racing For Change should be spending it's time thinking about the Racing industry, not the Betting Industry Punters are customers of the betting firms, not of trainers or jockeys I suppose he has a point - I mean this decimalisation will apply to football betting, cricket, rugby, Big Brother............but you don't get The premier League or Channel 4 issuing statements about how the bookies should do their job The guy from RFC was saying that this is just a minor small part of many changes.............to which MJ replied that that sums up the problem - RFC is tinkering at the edges instead of addressing the problems
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Re: BBOTD Monday 4th January 5.35 Wolv - The Graig - EW won over this CD back in March and has now slipped back below that winning mark. Has been getting closer as his mark has fallen and this is his 3rd run back after a summer break. Big odds - EW squeak
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Jan 4th 5.35 Wolv - Tallest Peak - lay This horse went up 8 lbs for a win in a class 7 handicap over 7 furlongs. Came out again the next day over todays trip and was beaten nearly 5 lengths in another class 7 running off his old mark. (not sure why he wasn't carrying a penalty !) The 8 lbs rise takes effect in todays race and should make life even more difficult.
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Re: Wolverhampton 04/01 Rubbish day today.........I've only looked at the two class 6 all aged handicaps. 4.35 - Dark Ranger - Win - ran pretty well last time behind recent prolific winner Wunder Strike. He was a close up 4th in a class 5 race and drops down to class 6 today off the same mark. Been getting closer to the front in 3 successive races. Alfredtheordinary - EW - is such a great name for a moderate horse. He's only 1 lb above his last winning mark and has his second run back after a long break. Could get placed at decent odds 5.35 Pacific Bay - EW - bit of a long shot and been running poorly in selling hurdles lately but his AW form isn't too bad. He's only ran twice and finished 2nd to a decent type in Ray Of Joy at Kempton, then finished 5th in a class 5 race at Lingfield. Has come down the weights and might have an EW shout if OK after his hurdles runs. The Graig - EW - won over this CD back in March and has now slipped back below that winning mark. Has been getting closer as his mark has fallen and this is his 3rd run back after a summer break. Big odds - EW squeak..
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Jan 3rd Kempton 2.35 - Istiqdaam - lay I think it's worth taking on likely fave Istiqdaam, who is up in class, up 9 lbs in the weights and who's yard has gone a bit quiet again after a hot spell a month ago. Istiqdaam stepped up to a class 5 race 2 runs ago and was beaten at 11/10F. Two wins either side of that were in class 6 He also has the worst of the draw on the outside
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 3rd January Kempton 2.35 - Dinner Date - win Goes well here and has run in a couple of hot races recently behind Poyle Meg and Beauchamp Viceroy. In between those two class 4 races he dropped down to a class 5 over this CD and won. Only 2 lbs higher than that win and looks better over todays 8 furlongs than the 10 he ran over last time. Back in class 5, back at 8 furlongs, should go well today
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Re: Kempton (AW) 03/01 2.35 - Dinner Date - win Goes well here and has run in a couple of hot races recently behind Poyle Meg and Beauchamp Viceroy. In between those two class 4 races he dropped down to a class 5 over this CD and won. Only 2 lbs higher than that win and looks better over todays 8 furlongs than the 10 he ran over last time. Back in class 5, back at 8 furlongs, should go well today. I think it's worth taking on likely fave Istiqdaam, who is up in class, up 9 lbs in the weights and who's yard has gone a bit quiet again after a hot spell a month ago. Istiqdaam stepped up to a class 5 race 2 runs ago and was beaten at 11/10F. He also has the worst of the draw on the outside.
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Re: BBOTD Selections ~ Jan 2nd 3.05 Southwell - Cape of Storms - EW Three times CD winner and two of those wins have been when the going has been 'standard to slow'. He's also been placed over 7 furlongs here so should get the trip in these tough conditions when the out and out sprinters might be fading. Is a couple of pounds higher than his last win but the handicapper has dropped him 2 lbs for his reappearance run after a long break of 8 months. He finished last here a couple of weeks ago but was entitled to need a run and he raced wide all the way round Drawn on the inside today Taking a chance that he's fit enough to do himself justice.
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Re: The Punters Lounge 100/1 Challenge I had a 500-1 2nd in the Derby one year.......... Terimon, trained by Clive Brittain......... Grr...........that pesky 'Nashwan'.........:eyes
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Jan 2nd Ling 2.40 - Woolfall Treasure - Lay Once raced maiden winner stepping into handicap company The maiden win was nothing special. The 2nd has been beaten 7 lengths in a maiden race since and is a 15 race maiden. The third home is a 6 race maiden. The fourth home was beaten 7 lengths in a handicap off just 45 Of course, you never know with once-raced maiden winners if they might improve a lot but it was a slow race and he had to be ridden out to win. I'll take a chance that he's badly handicapped.
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Re: Southwell 02/01/10 Blimey..........66 people 'active on the forum'........don't think I've ever seen that many...........:welcome
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Re: Southwell 02/01/10 12.55 - Tamasou - win I think trainer Mccabe might hold the key here With the ground riding 'slow' it was a real slog here yesterday and all the horses were finishing tired. I think it might pay to look for horses that stay further than they're running over today. Tamasou has finished fairly close up over 9F at Wolves a couple of times so should get the 7F well enough. Has never won here which is a negative but I think horses that go ok at Wolves usually handle Southwell Mccabe's other runner, Follow The Flag, is more of a stayer dropping back from 12 furlongs to 7 furlongs today. His handicap mark seems to jump up and down with no rhyme nor reason to it, especially if you look at the 'Life' site - he appears to have gone up 11 lbs for finishing 2nd. He's probably not well handicapped but should be staying on. Prohibition is a bit of a hype horse. He won a Class 5 maiden on heavy ground over 8F, so he should get this trip no problem. But his other 3 runs, all in class 4, have seen him beaten an average of 11 lengths per race.
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Re: The Punters Lounge 100/1 Challenge Nice one Fin.........:ok I had two 25/1 winners in BBotD in 2009 (both EW)............so I might give Ted a run for his money............:lol If i see any big price ones that I think have a squeak I'll post 'em up in here if i remember............if others do the same it'll keep the thread going !
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Re: Southwell - New Years Day With the new comp I'm beginning to look for Lays - it's good innit ! 3.15 - Miss Glitters - Lay Likely favourite but this won't be easy Is the only filly in the race. When she won here a couple of runs ago it was a Fillies Only handicap and it'll be tougher against the boys Is now 8 lbs higher than that half length win including a further 2 lbs rise for her 2nd last time. Don't like horses that go up in the weights for being placed. Steps up in Class to a class 2 race from mainly running in class 4. Her two runs in Class 3 have seen her beaten 13 lengths and 7 lengths so up to class 2 is a big step
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Jan 1st Southwell 1.35 - Dart - Lay A small field and lack of front runners could see this 14 furlong event decided in a sprint finish. Dart will be favourite but she's up in the weights, up in class and is a hold up performer who might not be suited if there's not much pace. Won over CD in a class 6 last time but there was a decent clip on that day and she powered clear of tiring rivals. My main concerning in Laying is that they've put Victory Quest in the race to act as a pacemaker but he seems so out of form I'm not sure he's up to doing the job
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Re: BBOTD Selections ~ Jan 1st Southwell 1.35 - Ibrox - win A small field and lack of front runners could see this 14 furlong event decided in a sprint finish. That should play into the hands of Ibrox, who is a 11/12 furlong horse and he could have the edge over the more dour stayers in the field. By my reckoning he has the best recent 'speed figures' and hopefully will have the toe to see them off in the last furlong
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Re: Southwell - New Years Day 1.35 Ibrox - win 1.35 - Dart - Lay A small field and lack of front runners could see this 14 furlong event decided in a sprint finish. That should play into the hands of Ibrox, who is a 11/12 furlong horse and he could have the edge over the more dour stayers in the field. By my reckoning he has the best recent 'speed figures' and hopefully will have the toe to see them off in the last furlong Was tempted by My Friend Fitz, who won this last year, but he's coming off a long break and will probably need a run at his age Dart will be favourite but she's up in the weights, up in class and is a hold up performer who might not be suited if there's not much pace. Won over CD in a class 6 last time but there was a decent clip on that day and she powered clear of tiring rivals. My main concerning in Laying is that they've put Victory Quest in the race to act as a pacemaker but he seems so out of form I'm not sure he's up to doing the job
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Re: best bet of the day - thurs 31st dec Ling 3.30 - Baunagain - 1 point EW Supernap Baunagain has dropped down to a mark below his last win and has been getting closer to the front in 4 successive races. I put him up last time as an EW shot and he finished 3rd at 33/1 !!...........great tipping from me, but unfortunately there was a late non runner leaving a field of 7..........:spank............That was a decent enough run though on his first go at 7F for some 18 months. Runs off the same mark today and could go off at an EW price (BUT........only 8 runners, so watch out for the late withdrawal !)
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Re: Lingfield - Thurs 31st Dec Bummer .........just seen some prices for the race on the Post 'Betting Site'..............Bet365 has Poppanan as 7/2 Fave which is fair enough, but Baunagain is only 4/1..........I was thinking it might 8/1 or above.
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Re: Lingfield - Thurs 31st Dec 3.30 Best (and last !) race on the card.......and it's quite a tricky one Autumn Blades is a bit of a serial 'place' horse and is 5 lbs higher than his last win, which was only by a nose. It would be surprising if he wasn't placed, but equally surprising if he won. Shaded edge and Sunshine Always are possibilities but appear to be going backwards at the moment. Desert Dreamer is below his last winning mark but doesn't win often. He went up 2 lbs for that nose 2nd to AB, which puts me off him The two i like are Poppanan and Baunagain Poppanan is a lightly raced type with just 5 runs. This is his 4th run in handicap company and it looks like he's getting the hang of it with an eye catching 3rd last time behind hot AW performer Imprimus Tagula. He was running on late that day and the step up to 7F should suit. Handicapper dropped him a pound as well ! Baunagain has dropped down to a mark below his last win and has been getting closer to the front in 4 successive races. I put him up last time as an EW shot and he finished 3rd at 33/1 !!...........great tipping from me, but unfortunately there was a late non runner leaving a field of 7..........:spank............That was a decent enough run though on his first go at 7F for some 18 months. Runs off the same mark today and could go off at an EW price (BUT........only 8 runners, so watch out for the late withdrawal !) I'm working tomorrow but should get back in time for this race, good job it's the last one on the card !
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Re: Kempton 30th Dec (eve) 7.20 The Tatling - EW The old boy put in a stinker last time at Southwell, finishing last but one and beaten 10 lengths. But he often seems to bounce back from a poor run and run OK next time. Before that Southwell race he'd finished just behind Ebraam in a claimer and Lesleys Choice in a handicap, so he can still put in a decent effort. And he does tend to go off at double figure prices - around 16/1 at the moment for tonight I think there are doubts about all the other runners and can see The tatling running into a place.
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Re: Lingfield 30/12
I thought there was a bit of a gap there - could have shoved through. Maybe the horse is a bit timid ?...........I'm wary of horses like him. Next time he'll probably come through pulling a double handful and find nowthere to go as well..........might be one to Lay next time 'cos he's bound to be favourite !Thought Hayley let us down a bit there Trotter. One to look out for next time Totally Focussed imo. -
Re: Lingfield 30/12 3.35 Totally Focussed - EW Second run back after a 9 month break - ran quite well last time, held up at the rear and late headway to finish 3rd without ever being put in the race. Handicapper has dropped him a pound so he's just 2 lbs above his last winning mark . That was over 7 furlongs and should appreciate the step back up to a mile
No jumps meetings until Thursday - at the earliest.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: No jumps meetings until Thursday - at the earliest. In fact, just thinking about this........ If the big freeze went on for weeks they could hold a meeting at one of the AW tracks and devise specific races for NH horses - eg two and half miles for horses that have won a steeplechase of 3 miles or over since 1st Jan 2009 Something like that - P Nichols might want to give Denman a spin !