[Making a Tissue - a Shortcut ?]

Re: Making a Tissue - a Shortcut ? EEK........pressed Submit by mistake I haven't finished yet ! Edit - OK, finished !

[Making a Tissue - a Shortcut ?]

I've had a few days off from the daily grind of form study due to work committments.........but the old brain has been ticking over and I think I've found a good shortcut for punters who want to go down the route of forming their own tissue Look away now Ginge !.............;) OK.......when I've tried this before my usual problem is where to pitch the favourite, ie trying to decide wether it's a Evs or 3/1 chance and how much bigger the odds should be for the 2nd Fave, 3rd Fave etc down my pecking order. I'm usually ok at getting the horses into a rough pecking order, not so good at evaluating that order in terms of % chances and actual odds My idea is this....... Take a Pro tissue like the Post.........convert the tissue odds to % using the 'Table'........add them up to get the over-round Tomorrows Class 3 handicap at Kempton adds up to about 120%. The top few in the market are..... 9/2 Glow star 5/1 Seek The Fair Land 6/1 Autumn Blades and so on down to 25/1 Vintage Next step is to amend all these forecast prices to a 100% book - in this case increase all the horses odds by about one-sixth So now we have....... 11/2 Glow star 13/2 Seek The fair Land 7/1 Autumn Blades and so on down to 33/1 Vintage Now here's my shortcut - you retain these odds because you know they represent a 100% book - but you shuffle the horses round according to your opinion So start with the first 2 - if you think Seek has a better chance than Glow, move Seek up to the 11/2 slot and Glow down to the 13/2 slot If you think one of the 12/1 shots has a better chance than Autumn Blades, move that one up to the 7/1 slot and all the others go down one In other words you retain the prices but move the horses ! What do you reckon ? ps that's it - finished now !

[Massey????????]

Re: Massey???????? http://www.adrianmassey.com/how.php He ain't tellin' !...........:rollin Must say that when I got back interested in racing a couple of years ago I found the Massey site by accident and thought it was fantastic ! I guess as I've become aware of all the diffeent ratings around I'm less impressed..........I don't think it's any better or worse than all the others, but I've gradually gone off the whole idea of computer genereated ratings. I still think he does a fantastic job - just think of the time involved in inputting all the days results !.........it's mind boggling. And his info sections, on draw, favourites, going etc are terrific. Well done Mr Massey !

[Genetics In Racing]

Re: Genetics In Racing I think it would be fascinating......... I suspect there's loads of gumpf spouted about inherited characteristics of racehorses. I mean how many times have you heard something along the lines of 'well, her half sister by Danehill got 8 furlongs, so there should be no problem with the trip'.......... I think a lot of this stuff is self-fulfilling..........a trainer gets a horse as a 2 year old by a 'sprint sire' so he trains him to be a sprinter and feeds him and exercises him and builds him up as a precocious type and he's run 15 times by the time he's 3..........and won a couple of races over 5/6 furlongs..........see, that's proof that such and such a sire gets precocious 2YO sprinters.........

[Remember When.....]

Re: Remember When..... The video recorder was another huge step forward.......... I used to set the video to record the afternoon racing, put my bets on at lunchtime at work, get home and watch the racing 'as live' ! Course.........if you had a Yankee and the first one came up, forget about watching 'as live'...........fast forward button ! :D Another thing that's changed massively is availability of 'form'. In the old days the Life and Post only gave details of a horses last 3 runs. No 'lifetime' form to look at ! And you couldn't study tomorrows races the night before - you had no form until you bought the paper on the day of the race. The old 'Weekender' used to publish some form for the big Saturday races and it was published on a Thursday - that was your only chance to study in advance..............:loon

[Remember When.....]

Re: Remember When..... I might be imagining this.......... In the olden days the betting shops used to pin up the papers on the wall, which they still do of course !..........but I seem to remember that one of the papers was the Licensed Victualler's Trade Paper which covered racing in depth !

[Remember When.....]

Re: Remember When..... I remember the days when I used to get home from work and ring up the Racings Results Service on the phone.......... And if you could wait they had a full Racing Round Up at 6.45 on Radio 2 probably at that time Then teletext came in.................:loon

[Hugh Taylor's Method]

Re: Hugh Taylor's Method Yes, I suppose it is pretty obvious really........ I guess the skill is in deciding which horses that 'travel well' are likely to win.............. I think you can pretty much watch all the races for free now on the websites...........that would be one advantage of the AW over jumps racing - a whole meeting would only take the same time to watch back as a single 3 mile chase !

[Hugh Taylor's Method]

Watching Hugh Taylor on ATR today giving out his 'eyecatchers' and it struck me that they were all the same ! And it only took me a few minutes from that bombshell to work out his entire selection methodology.........:tongue2 Now obviously I could keep this to myself and beat the prices, but as it involves some work I won't bother. Basicaly he watches all the races and notes down horses who 'travel well'.........by that he means keep up with the pace or run on through the field without the jockey having to 'push' the horse.........ie horses who keep up with the others with the jockey sitting still whilst the others are pushing and shoving. Second step is to look for horses who travel well, but in races they are unlikely to win, either because it's their first run back after a break, they prefer a different trip or surface, bad draw, the stable is out of form etc. Third step is to wait for those horses to run in optimum conditions for a win - right trip, track etc Think I've got this sussed? Good basis for a selection method ?

[Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan]

Re: Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan 2.50 Wolv - Divine Force - win lay Likely favourite and is in pretty good form having recently won a 6F handicap at Ling and a 7F handicap here. That was an Apprentice event and he gets no penalty so he's probably well handicapped. Reasons to opose - This looks more competitive Bad draw Usually slowly away - might be better at 7F Big field - could find trouble in running coming from the back S Whitworth up - he's not that good, is he ?

[Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan]

Re: Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan Thanks BH............:ok

[Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan]

Re: Lay of the day - Tue 19th Jan Could someone clear something up for me ? I don't use betfair and I'm unsure of the place terms that they use. I guess for 8 plus fields it's 'first three' How about smaller fields ? Am I right in thinkig that they give 'first three' for 7 runner fields ?. How about 6 ? Cheers............:ok

[Wolverhampton 18th Jan (AW)]

Re: Wolverhampton 18th Jan (AW) Hmm.........don't like the look of this card very much I'm not really into the three year olds yet.......... Might have a day off..........or I'll have another look tomorrow !

[Lay Of The Day Tables ~ January & Rules]

Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ January & Rules Thanks BH..........:ok

[Lay Of The Day Tables ~ January & Rules]

Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ January & Rules Hi BH.......did you notice that my one today was a 'Place Lay'.........:unsure

[Best bet of the day - Sun 17th Jan]

Re: Best bet of the day - Sun 17th Jan 4.10 Wolv - Ivory Silk - EW Competitive sprint handicap and I think this one could be ready to strike now after a 3rd and a 2nd in it's last 2 runs, both over this CD Is relatively lightly raced for an AW sprint handicapper and appears to be still on the upgrade There's a couple of good front runners in the field and I can see a pile of horses coming from off the pace in the last 2 furlongs. Old Matsunosuke might need a bit of luck as he tends to weave through the field late on and there's always the chance of getting hampered. Ebraam might need 6F now to get home. Ivory Silk...........reckon he'll be coming late and fast with maybe Peak District, Ebraam and Matsun..........good chance of a place at least !

[Lay of the day - Sun 17th Jan]

Re: Lay of the day - Sun 17th Jan 4.10 Wolv - Earlsmedic - Place Lay Front runner who usually runs over 6F but drops back to 5F today I think he'll get well hassled by Glamorous Spirit who goes off like a bullet from a gun and the 2 of them will go far too fast to hold on Lots of fast finishers in the race and i think the front runners will get swamped.

[EW betting]

Re: EW betting

Agree with Billy, The make up of races depends on whether it is a good each way bet. Have taken 5\2 each way when considering there's little chance of being unplaced.

Don't know if I'm missing something here but if we're talking conventional EW betting, ie same stake to win and to place, then I don't see the point of ever backing EW at 5/2..........even if your horse gets placed you lose money ?

[O/R Higher than race conditions allow]

Re: O/R Higher than race conditions allow

Not exactly solved BH. These horses who are allowed to race on marks above the official weight range; do so because they've been ENTERED before their new rating has been assessed. If a horse runs off say a mark of 56, he is not reassessed until Tuesday with those ratings taking in to account all racing up to and including the previous Saturday. These revised marks don't come in to account until the following Saturday. Therefore, despite say being reassessed from 56 up to 70; if a horse is ENTERED before Tuesday it is allowed to run in a 0-60 handicap.

This isn't the case with Matsunosuke though........his mark hasn't risen above 100 since the entry. His mark has actually been coming down recently.........he was rated 109 not long ago The race conditions specifically say that it's a 0-100 but horses rated 101 or above can be entered.........but that they'll carry extra weight above the topweight of 9-4

[O/R Higher than race conditions allow]

Re: O/R Higher than race conditions allow Interesting...........cheers BH I suspect this probably only happens at the top end handicaps......and is there to allow horses rated 101 to 110 to run as there isn't enough prize money to reach the minimum level for a 0-110 Looking at this race, would you think Matsunosuke is effectively 2 lbs out of the handicap, but at the top end, not the bottom ? :unsure

[EW betting]

Re: EW betting I always think about the odds that you're getting if the horse places but doesn't win So a 10/1 shot at 1/5th odds that places but doesn't win gets you 2/1 for half your stake or Evens for your whole stake. In other words it's 1/10th odds of your whole stake. Bearing that in mind I don't like to do anything EW at 10/1 or under.......that's the equivalent of backing something at Evens to win Anything under 10/1 is like backing an odds-on shot to win

[Lingfield - Sat 16th Jan]

Re: Lingfield - Sat 16th Jan 3.40 Bridge of Gold - Lay Unexposed horse in a handicap off top weight I've noticed over the years that horses with form in Listed or Group races early in their career are invariably over-rated by the handicapper and it usually takes them a year or more to get down to a realitric mark Of course, the odd horse will buck the trend, but I reckon it's worth taking this one on. Ran well in a very small field Listed race after winning his maiden. That could be false form with the two best horses in the race finishing 1st and 2nd.........the ones behind could be flattered. He didn't run great here on his 3rd outing either.

[Lay of the day - Sat 16th Jan]

Re: Lay of the day - Sat 16th Jan 3.40 Ling - Luberon - Place Lay Front runner who's gone off at 3/1 and 4/1 in his last 2 races and been beaten 14 lengths both times, fading quickly after setting the pace. Drops down to 10 furlongs today but I don't think that will help as he'll be hassled for the lead and will probably go too fast This race looks full of 'finishers' and I can see the front runners being swamped up the straight

[Tote Placepot Help]

Re: Tote Placepot Help I think that what you have there is the 6th race and the numbers 1, 2, 3 etc are the racecard numbers of the horses with Fav meaning unnamed Favourite. I guess the amounts by each number are the amounts of the winning lines from races 1-5 going on to each horse. The 'total' of 2,214 will be the amount of the winning lines still in play before this race, after races 1-5 Not sure how they calculate the dividend but presumably they take out a certain percentage for running costs and the remainder is shared between the winning lines.

[Southwell - 13 Jan 10]

Re: Southwell - 13 Jan 10 Don't know if you're watching Billy, but Boycey just mentionned you on ATR ! :lol Autographs all round !...............:lol