Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best bet of the day 8th Oct 9.00 Kemp - Kings Colour - win Had 4 on my short list here Dumped Block Party because the form of his races hasn't worked out and he might be harshly handicapped. Dumped Audemar because I've picked him a couple of times and he's let me down - he'll probably run into 3rd or 4th as he usually does. Might be better at 7 furlongs Last one to be dumped was Fancy Footsteps - 7 lbs up from last win, 7 lb claimer on tonight, but I don't think she's an easy ride. Good course record though and good odds at around 8/1. Although it was a class 4 I think the race she won here a couple of runs ago was poor. The second was beaten 32 lengths next time out and the third was beaten 40 odd lengths in a hurdle race. Kings Colour on the other hand has won it's last 2 races and the form looks pretty solid with previous winners and next time out winners behind him. Is rising up the handicap but looks to be improving and is lightly raced. Has run well here last year without winning, so appears to handle the track OK and he did win on the poly at Great Leighs. Looks a worthy favourite.
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Re: Kempton 8th Oct (AW) (eve) 9.00 - Kings Colour Had 4 on my short list here Dumped Block Party because the form of his races hasn't worked out and he might be harshly handicapped. Dumped Audemar because I've picked him a couple of times and he's let me down - he'll probably run into 3rd or 4th as he usually does. Might be better at 7 furlongs Last one to be dumped was Fancy Footsteps - 7 lbs up from last win, 7 lb claimer on tonight, but I don't think she's an easy ride. Good course record though and good odds at around 8/1. Although it was a class 4 I think the race she won here a couple of runs ago was poor. The second was beaten 32 lengths next time out and the third was beaten 40 odd lengths in a hurdle race. Kings Colour on the other hand has won it's last 2 races and the form looks pretty solid with previous winners and next time out winners behind him. Is rising up the handicap but looks to be improving and is lightly raced. Has run well here last year without winning, so appears to handle the track OK and he did win on the poly at Great Leighs. Looks a worthy favourite.
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Re: Best bet of the day 7th Oct Well done samba !..........terrific use of your 2-pointer ! :ok
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Re: Kempton 7th Oct (AW) (eve) 8.20 - Newton Circus I like the look of this one to beat the likely favourite, Daniella de Bruin Newton Circus is officially rated 7 lbs below the Fave in this claiming race, but has the advantage of course and distance form having won a similar race here last time out. After that race he was claimed out of Hannon's yard and is now with O Pears, who has a 33 % strike rate over the last fortnight. Daniella is coming back to 7 furlongs from 9 furlongs, and looks a bit temperamental, drifting around the track when she won last time. Trainer is also in god form and she does have Seb Sanders up, I just don't like the drop in distance for her.
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Re: Best bet of the day 7th Oct Kempton 6.50 - Uncle Fred - win This is the best race on the card and there's a couple I've got on my short list Hallingdal is handicapped to win again, being just a pound above her last win. She's got course form, appears to have improved a bit recently for stepping up to 10 furlongs and ran her best race for a while last time out on her return to polytrack when narrowly beaten at Wolves. If she puts her best foot forward she could well win, but she's an in and out type. Seems to do best in fillies only races, maybe she's a bit timid when up against colts. Uncle Fred is the other one on my short list. He's lightly raced and might well improve now stepped up in trip. His only win has been on turf but he's run OK here and at Lingfield. Hasn't got a great draw but will probably want to get him settled at the rear so probably doesn't matter that he's out wide.
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Re: Kempton 7th Oct (AW) (eve) 6.50 This is the best race on the card and there's a couple I've got on my short list Hallingdal is handicapped to win again, being just a pound above her last win. She's got course form, appears to have improved a bit recently for stepping up to 10 furlongs and ran her best race for a while last time out on her return to polytrack when narrowly beaten at Wolves. If she puts her best foot forward she could well win, but she's an in and out type. Seems to do best in fillies only races, maybe she's a bit timid when up against colts. Uncle Fred is the other one on my short list. He's lightly raced and might well improve now stepped up in trip. His only win has been on turf but he's run OK here and at Lingfield. Hasn't got a great draw but will probably want to get him settled at the rear so probably doesn't matter that he's out wide. Hallingdal - EW Uncle Fred - EW
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Re: Triple Crown for 4 yr olds plus I think the last thing we want is more Group One races - there are already far too many. The best horses can avoid each other and still all win a Group One against four or five other runners. If they want to encourage horses to stay in trainng at 4, 5, 6 etc they could beef up the existing group one races for older horses - Lockinge at a Mile, prince of wales at 10 furlongs and make the King George a 4 year old plus race at 12 furlongs There's your Triple Crown ! I think it's a bit unrealistic to have a Leger race in the series as by 4 years old most horses have got their ideal trip and you wouldn't get a Miler going for the Leger equivalent
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Re: Stupid NH Question/s Novices can run for ever in Novice races if they never win Once they've won a Novice they can only run in them until the end of that season. If a horse wins a Novice Hurdle during one season it can run in Novice Chases from the next season or vice versa. A lot of 'chasing types' will traditionally have a season Novice Hurdling then go straigt to the next season Novice Chasing
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Re: Stupid NH Question/s One other thing about 'bumpers' - you can't enter a horse that's already run on the Flat Given that most bumpers would be for 4 year old plus this effectively means that they're only open to the offspring of National Hunt sires because most offspring of Flat sires will have run on the flat before that age. They often seem to refer to these horses as 'Store Horses', not quite sure why - in my mind it's cos I think they've been sort of kept in storage for 4 or 5 years before running .......they'll also be referred to 'big, chasing types'..........the assumption being that your 'hurdles types' will have come off the Flat and therefore won't be running in bumpers.
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Re: Best bet of the day 5th Oct Warw 2.20 - Bel cantor EW I think this one is ready to win - he's dropped below his last winning mark and has been dropped another 2 lbs for a half length defeat last time. He looks handicapped to win but I'm a bit worried about the draw as he's drawn widest of the field. Still, he's around 8/1 so an EW shout and if he gets beat, watch out for him next time he has a kinder draw
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Re: Warwick 5th Oct 2.20 - Bel cantor I think this one is ready to win - he's dropped below his last winning mark and has been dropped another 2 lbs for a half length defeat last time. He looks handicapped to win but I'm a bit worried about the draw as he's drawn widest of the field. Still, he's around 8/1 so an EW shout and if he gets beat, watch out for him next time he has a kinder draw
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Re: Sea The Stars Here's a different view of todays race - amateur footage taken from the Grandstand........... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiGZlBKdFU4
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Re: Best bet of the day - Sun 4th Oct Longchamp 2.30 - Night Magic - win The Germans won this last year with Lady Marian who runs again today but seems to have lost her way a bit since joining Godolphin. Lady Marian came into the race having finished 2nd in the German Oaks. Night Magic won this years German Oaks and comes here as the most impressive winner of that race for some time - made all the running and spreadeagled the field, winning by 5 lengths. The horse that finished second that day has achieved some notoriety as the horse that Dar Re Me hampered in the Vermeilles, leading to her disqualification. Despite that hampering Soberania still only finished 2 lengths behind Stacelita and Dar Re Me. So - Night Magic woould probably have won the Vermeilles by 3 lengths............:unsure OK, you can't take collateral form that literally but Night Magic is obviously a very good filly and must have a great chance today
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Re: Longchamp 4th October, Arc Day 2.30 - Night Magic The Germans won this last year with Lady Marian who runs again today but seems to have lost her way a bit since joining Godolphin. Lady Marian came into the race having finished 2nd in the German Oaks. Night Magic won this years German Oaks and comes here as the most impressive winner of that race for some time - made all the running and spreadeagled the field, winning by 5 lengths. The horse that finished second that day has achieved some notoriety as the horse that Dar Re Me hampered in the Vermeilles, leading to her disqualification. Despite that hampering Soberania still only finished 2 lengths behind Stacelita and Dar Re Me. So - Night Magic woould probably have won the Vermeilles by 3 lengths............:unsure OK, you can't take collateral form that literally but Night Magic is obviously a very good filly and must have a great chance today.
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Re: Longchamp 4th October, Arc Day 12.45 - Monsieur Chevalier EW I think this one has a cracking EW chance getting loads of weight from the older horses. Two year olds don't have a great record in all aged group one sprints but not many of them run. Sigy won this as a 2YO, Kingsgate Native won the Nunthorpe. Radiohead fininished 3rd (?) in this years Nunthorpe. The WFA seems very generous if you have a big, mature precocious two year old. Monsieur Chevalier always looked as though he needed 6 furlongs but relatively speaking he flopped both times he's tried it, so back to 5 furlongs. There should be lots of pace on today so the liklehood is that the fast finishers will be able to reel the front runners in. Obvious danger is potential for traffic problems, but you just have to take that on board.
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Re: Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Day - Sat 3rd Oct
As far as I know they're still in 'Stewards Enqury' mode for that race.......presumably desperately trying to find a way to award the race to Goldikova.........:unsure:tongue2 Have you heard the definitive result yet ?:clap:clap Class call Although Goldikova might not even have won today based on her run in France - Peslier you tw@t :wall -
Re: Best bet of the day - Sat 3rd Oct Newm - 3.40 - Alazeyab - EW Been looking at the high drawn ones after that 2YO race........I like the look of Jarvis's second string here. Has been pretty close up in a couple of big handicaps last 2 runs and has a good record in big field races having won an 18 runner race and has a 2nd in a 19 runner race. Lightly raced with just 10 career runs, has won at 10 furlongs (as have the last 7 or 8 winners of the Cambrdgeshire), has won at newmarket and the stable is in cracking form. Because he's obviously the second string his odds look inflated. First string is the favourite but is drawn low........we'll have to see how that draw works out
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Re: Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Day - Sat 3rd Oct
Cheers Russ Wish I'd put it up in BBotD...........:wall I've posted so many today I can't make my mind up which one to put in..........:tongue2Awesome mate:notworthy -
Re: Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Day - Sat 3rd Oct 3.40 - Alazeyab - EW Been looking at the high drawn ones after that 2YO race........I like the look of Jarvis's second string here. Has been pretty close up in a couple of big handicaps last 2 runs and has a good record in big field races having won an 18 runner race and has a 2nd in a 19 runner race. Lightly raced with just 10 career runs, has won at 10 furlongs (as have the last 7 or 8 winners of the Cambrdgeshire), has won at newmarket and the stable is in cracking form. Because he's obviously the second string his odds look inflated. First string is the favourite but is drawn low........we'll have to see how that draw works out
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Re: Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Day - Sat 3rd Oct 3.00 Sahpresa - EW Ghanaati should win this but there doesn't seem to be much between the rest of them Sahpresa has won a couple of listed races and placed in group races over in France. Finished 5 lengths behind Goldikova in the D'Astarte in August - how far would Goldikova win by if she was running today here ? As far as I can see this is the stable's only runner in the UK today, so seems unlikely they'd bother to send it over if it was really a 25/1 shot !
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Re: Newmarket - Cambridgeshire Day - Sat 3rd Oct 5.25 - Tinaar This is one I've been watching on the all weather and seems to be a rapid improver. Ran a cracker last time out when 3rd behind 2 other progressive types in Highland Glen and Ottoman Empire at Kempton Expensive and well-bred, stable in decent form, Fallon takes the ride. Shame about all the non runners ruining the market..........she'll probably go off 6/4 favourite now.
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Re: Longchamp - Sat 3rd October 2009 4.20 - Group 2 - 9.5 Furlongs First thing that struck me here was that Suits Me is running - he was a regular on the all weather last winter and it's a bit of a surprise to see him in a G2 at Longchamp...........:unsure Britsh/Irish runners are at the head of the market here with Famous Name, Pipedreamer, Balius, Stotsfold - but I think there are doubts about them. Famous Name has been on the go all season, Gosden stable hasn't had a winner for ages. I like Stotsfold, he's pretty consistant Gris de Gris has run well in group one company, 2nd in the D'Ispahan. Has had the summer off and had a pipeopener a few weeks ago. Stotsfold - EW Gris de gris - EW
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Re: Longchamp - Sat 3rd October 2009 3.45 - Group 2 - 8F This looks like a good chance for British success with Beacon Lodge who's already won a group 3 over in France and has run well in some top races. Ground might be against him though as he seems best on soft ground. This is a tricky one with 15 runners - I like the chances of Reggane, who finished 2nd in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and has had a nice break. Racinger is usually thereabouts in these kind of races, he won a group 3 last time. Golden Century was favourite for that group 3 but disappointed. I had Handsome Maestro as one to keep an eye on this season, but he's been disappointing. Apart from Beacon lodge we also have Spring of Fame and Shamwari Lodge running for GB Reggane - win Golden Century - EW
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Re: Longchamp - Sat 3rd October 2009 3.15 - Group 2 - 12.5 Furlongs Plumania is the one to beat here after finishing 2nd in the Vermeilles a couple of weeks ago, 3rd if you don't accept the demotion of Dar Re Me........:unsure She's been knocking on the door in the top fillies races this season and it's a worry that she doesn't win very often, just the once, but that last race was her best performance having stepped up to 12 furlongs for the first time. Stamina has always looked to be her strength as she often finishes with a real rattle over shorter trips British/irish interest with Charity Belle from Gosden's yard and John Oxx sends over Tanoura. Only 7 runners, so not looking for an EW Plumania - win
Kempton 8th Oct (AW) (eve)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Kempton 8th Oct (AW) (eve)
My initial reaction was that it was verging on 'taking the piss'..........and not in a good way.......... But obviously we don't know the horse's character........