Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Last Man Standing Comp ~ Week 1 3.40 Newbury - Dick Turpin
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Re: Questions about weight trends in Grand National Might be more valuble as a trend to see how much weight above the bottom weight winners were carrying, rather than 'top weight down' In the olden days the bottom weight was 10 stone and it was probably a trend to say that horses didn't win carrying more than a stone over bottom weight (so that would be your 'horses carrying over 11 stone' trend) That might still hold - but the bottom weight is now higher most years ! In other words look at the weights from bottom up rather than top down. So the trend might be - horses carrying more than a stone over bottom weight don't win ! ps.........this is off the top of my head and has not involved any research at all..............:unsure
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Re: Best bet of the day 16th April 8.30 Kemp - Street Power - win at 10/3 BOG with Totesport Serial winner on the all weather who disappointed last time out Has been given a decent break to freshen him up and he goes well fresh usually Stable in decent nick Has gone up 8lbs since his last win so probably needs to be at his best and he seems to run his best races here at kempton
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Re: Best bet of the day 15th April
Unseated rider at the stalls.......... Any chance of getting a 'non runner' on that one ?.........:unsure3.10 Ripon - Bagutta Sun - EW at 20/1 BOG with Paddy Power Hasn't run since 2008 and only had 2 career starts in all, one in France and one in germany. In both starts he was in and around subsequent group/listed performers so he's probably got the class to win this race, if he's fit. It is quite a big 'if' because the stable isn't really firing at the moment, but they did have the odd winner coming back from a break over the winter on the AW My angle into the race is that he looks like the only front runner in a small field on a sharpish track and I reckon he just might nick it from the front. -
Re: Newmarket 15th April At the risk of sounding a bit girly..........he's such a beautiful horse isn't he.........what a gorgeous beast !
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Thursday 15th April
Geez..........wonder what he'll be like when he's 'ready'.........:loon3.35 Newm - Elusive Pimpernel - win lay Obviously a high quality horse but I've got it stuck in my mind that Dunlop doesn't get 'em ready for trials, he gets 'em ready for the big races. He's an old fashionned trainer Don't think the horse will be 100% today and he probably wants further than a mile anyway, so hopefully something in the race will be fully tuned up for today and cause an upset -
Re: Ripon 15th April 3.10 Ripon - Bagutta Sun - EW at 20/1 BOG with Paddy Power Hasn't run since 2008 and only had 2 career starts in all, one in France and one in germany. In both starts he was in and around subsequent group/listed performers so he's probably got the class to win this race, if he's fit. It is quite a big 'if' because the stable isn't really firing at the moment, but they did have the odd winner coming back from a break over the winter on the AW My angle into the race is that he looks like the only front runner in a small field on a sharpish track and I reckon he just might nick it from the front.
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Re: Best bet of the day 15th April 3.10 Ripon - Bagutta Sun - EW at 20/1 BOG with Paddy Power Hasn't run since 2008 and only had 2 career starts in all, one in France and one in germany. In both starts he was in and around subsequent group/listed performers so he's probably got the class to win this race, if he's fit. It is quite a big 'if' because the stable isn't really firing at the moment, but they did have the odd winner coming back from a break over the winter on the AW My angle into the race is that he looks like the only front runner in a small field on a sharpish track and I reckon he just might nick it from the front.
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Thursday 15th April 3.35 Newm - Elusive Pimpernel - win lay Obviously a high quality horse but I've got it stuck in my mind that Dunlop doesn't get 'em ready for trials, he gets 'em ready for the big races. He's an old fashionned trainer Don't think the horse will be 100% today and he probably wants further than a mile anyway, so hopefully something in the race will be fully tuned up for today and cause an upset
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Re: Newmarket 15th April 3.00 - Equiano -win Former Spanish trained horse won a Group One at Royal Ascot a couple of years ago and then moved to the Barry Hills stable He's become a 'character' over the last year and doesn't seem to like racing much, often difficult to get in the stalls First time out might be the time to catch him before he remembers why he hates racing. Beaten about a neck in this race last year on his seasonal debut, he's certainly a speedy type Hills stable had a winner yesterday to break a bit of a drought
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Greville Starkey has died. He was one of the top jocks of his era but will probably always be remembered as the jockey who lost the Derby on Dancing Brave. Bit unfortunate that a long career with many big wins is overshadoweed by one poor ride, but that's the way of the world.
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Re: Kempton 14th April 8.35 Think it might be worth opposing the Cumani hot pot here and as the top two on my speed ratings are both big odds I'll put 'em both up as EW shots Carnivore - EW at 18/1, generally available Goes well here according to my figs, in and out performer who's likely to pop in at decent odds every now and now amongst some poor runs. Probably a bit high in the weights now but has an EW chance if it's a going day for him Hurricane Spirit - EW at 25/1 with Sportingbet Another one who goes well here but comes back off a break. The Best stable has not been in great form but that's probably why he's 25/1, be interesting to see what Nevison says on RUK when they get to the race with his inside knowledge of the Best yard. If he gives any indication that this one is fit for his seasonal debut then 25/1 will look pretty good !
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ April I had a loser, BH.........think you've forgot to nick a quid off me........ :unsure Grrr.........2 losers in a row after 2 odds-on winners in a row Ups and downs............:D
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Re: Newmarket 14th April
No.........I've gone off studying ante-post.........waste too much time on horses that aren't gonna run ! I'm a 'night before' kinda guy now..............:lol I'm working on a ratings system for Group and Listed races and also busily compiling my 'stamina figures' for different distances........Have you done any research into the 2k Guineas yet Trotter? I seem to remember you being one of the eager ones like me last season.... -
Re: Lay Of The Day - Wednesday 14th April 3.35 Newm - Red Jazz - place lay This meeting usually sees the Barry Hills stable kick off their Flat campaign in some style - they target the meeting But the stable has looked out of form early season and a couple of earlier runners today have disappointed so happy to place lay their runner in the Free Handicap
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Re: Newmarket 14th April
Good luck with that one Fin...........re-write a few forum records if that comes up ! I'm pretty leased with my first foray into the Turf.........First 3 in my short list of 5 and final 2 selections 1st at 9/1 and 3rd at 8/1. Now..........gotta keep it up for the next 7 months..........:loon5.55 Newmarket Fratellino to beat Kaptain Kirkup SF - 394.84 Bet 365 Kaptain Kirkup to beat Fratellino SF - 380.23 Bet 365 Same reasoning as above! -
Re: Newmarket 14th April I've decided to have an EW bet on this one............ 4.45 Newm - Fighter Boy - EW at 40/1 BOG with Stan James Not a great deal of recent form to go on here in a field of largely lightly raced 'promising' types To cut the field down I made a drastic decision to leave out the fillies racing against colts in early season - this got rid of half the field including a couple of favourites. Of the 5 colts - Dunlop's horses usually need a run, Stags Leap and Black Snowflake have had a few runs each and don't really look up to this level unless they improve a lot on what they've done. I'm left with 2 lightly raced colts who haven't shown for sure that they're not up to this level Prizefighting looks pretty good - came off the all weather to run in a Group One in France and ran OK finishing 5th. From Gosdens yard, must have a great chance Fighter Boy is an outsider with a Wolves maiden win to his name. He looked prety impressive that day (but didn't beat much) I'm going with Fighter Boy mainly 'cos of the huge odds but also because he has more stamina in his pedigree than the Gosden horse and it's still early for 3YO to be going 9 furlongs.
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Re: Best bet of the day 14th April 4.45 Newm - Fighter Boy - EW at 40/1 BOG with Stan James Not a great deal of recent form to go on here in a field of largely lightly raced 'promising' types To cut the field down I made a drastic decision to leave out the fillies racing against colts in early season - this got rid of half the field including a couple of favourites. Of the 5 colts - Dunlop's horses usually need a run, Stags Leap and Black Snowflake have had a few runs each and don't really look up to this level unless they improve a lot on what they've done. I'm left with 2 lightly raced colts who haven't shown for sure that they're not up to this level Prizefighting looks pretty good - came off the all weather to run in a Group One in France and ran OK finishing 5th. From Gosdens yard, must have a great chance Fighter Boy is an outsider with a Wolves maiden win to his name. He looked prety impressive that day (but didn't beat much) I'm going with Fighter Boy mainly 'cos of the huge odds but also because he has more stamina in his pedigree than the Gosden horse and it's still early for 3YO to be going 9 furlongs.
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Re: Newmarket 14th April Not backing anything today at Newmarket but I'm still going to pick out a few, as a tester for my early season flat form 3.00 Timeform Sales Race 10 furlongs this early in the season is a bet of a stamina test for 3YO so my short list comprises horses that look like Derby/Oaks distance types rather than milers/10F horses and that have shown a decent level of form and/or promise last year Short List - Ameer, Coordinated Cut, Don Carlos, Hot Prospect, Next Move I'm leaving out the O'Brien horses until they show some signs of running well I'm leaving out the Godolphin horses because they made a lousy start to the season last year (could be that they concentrate on the Carnival and don't start working with the European horses until April) So that leaves me with two........ Coordinated Cut - EW Hot Prospect - EW
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Re: Newmarket 14th April I've spent 2 or 3 hours on the 3 'pattern' races, but haven't really come to any decisions.............can't see me having a bet on them Best i could do is probably 'four or five of them might win'...........and even then I might not get a winner ! Bit of a waste of time really - might have another look tomorrow but I expect I'd just end up following the betting which kind of defeats the object Oh well...........Kempton to the rescue !
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ April 13th 5.20 Pontefract - Cornus - win lay The old timer Cornus is currently showing as favourite for the handicap sprint He's in long term decline and is now 19 lbs below his last winning mark. He's been unable to win class 6 handicaps off this sort of mark on the AW recently, so there's reason why he should win stepped up to class 5 on turf Not sure the uphill finish here at Ponte will suit him either
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Re: Questions about weight trends in Grand National I enjoy reading the trends threads and have even had a go at it myself One thing I don't quite get is how the betting forecast can be used as 'a trend'............eg 9/10 were 10/1 or under........ I always think that, well.........9/10 of all winners of all races are probably 10/1 or under.........and surely the point of 'trends' is to pinpoint the horses that 'should' be amongst the favourites..........using 'the favourites' as one of the trends seems self-defeating.
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Re: Lay of the day 12th April Grrrr..........my selection was a non runner, but I didn't know until after the race They obviously knew it couldn't win...........:@
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Re: Lay of the day 12th April 3.50 Windsor - Luscivious - win lay I feel a bit of a heel for deserting Luscivious after stalking him for a few runs and plunging in last week when he won at big odds ! But I'm deserting him today solely on account of the ground. He's still well handicapped and in good form but his record suggests that he really needs to get his toe in on soft ground or fibresand to give his best and that he underperforms on polytrack and good or firm ground on turf Also he's not well drawn to make all today like last week where he was by the rail. He'l have to come across today and might use up his energy getting to the front
Lay Of The Day Selections ~ April 17th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ April 17th 2.00 Newbury - Purple Moon = place lay Regular group one performer around the world, but he hasn't won for a while and doesn't have a good record coming back off long breaks. He invariably needs a run or two