Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: BBOTD - Sunday 28th March Leop 4.05 Noll Wallop - EW at 9/1 BOG with Laddies With the O'brien team still not firing (both well fancied ones ran poorly in the 1000 gns trial earlier) this looks a good chance for Noll Wallop. Trainer says he'll be better on good ground but he still won a maiden on soft at the back end of last season. He should be a 10/12 furlong prospect this year but with the softish ground, todays trip should be ok, he should be running on at the finish Trainer started the season with a bang with 4 winners on the first racing day last weekend.
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Re: Lay of the day - Sun 28th March 4.10 Donc - Johnny Mudball - place lay Very short price for a big field handicap sprint He's only had 3 runs in his career and he might be another 'Penitent' in which case, fair enough. But he's unproven on the ground and he's unprovan in a big field sprint on a straight track Had a couple of runs on the all weather, wining a maiden by 5 lengths, then placed in a handicap. Form looks OK, but both were no better than class 5/6 times by my ratings. This is a lot more competitive Looks like a headstrong front runner and not sure that will be the right tactics today at Donny with a head wind blowing down the straight track, I think you need cover and producing late.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables : March
...........you forgot me, BH.........:cry :cashWinners for CC75, Wizzkid, Fin and BH:ok -
Re: Kempton 27th March (AW)
Nice one Stewart............:clap Good start to the day................:ok2.20 Hard to oppose Tiddliwinks, but I sided with Prohibit last time, and I am happy to give him another chance at around 10/1. Had 3 runs in Meydan, and ran with credit. However, before that, his form in the UK stands up to the rest of these and Robert Cowell is a monster with his older horses at Kempton, and well worth following. I think Prohibit may just be overpriced. Bets 1.5 pt win Prohibit @ 10/1 Bet 365 BOG -
Re: lay of the day - sat 27th march 2.50 Kemp - Becausewecan - place lay Good front runner, typical Johnstone horse, but I think he might struggle today. If anything he probably wants further than todays trip and I can't see him going fast enough to shake off the field. He's also been going up the weights for being placed, which isn't ideal Think he'll get swamped in the final furlong or so.
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Re: Kempton 27th March (AW) 5.10 Yer Woman - win This race looks set up for this one as it appears to be the only hold up horse in the race, the rest are front or prominent runners usually Love Delta has been slammed by the handicapper for winning mainly at Southwell and she's my equal toprated, but I don't think she'll reproduce that Southwell form her. Has won over CD, but she was much lower in the handicap then. Yer Woman has run well since her reappearance without winning but won over CD back in November.
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Re: Kempton 27th March (AW) 4.35 Areeda - EW at 8/1 BOG, Corals I lke the look of this one. Has some good speed figs over 6/7 furlongs but should improve for step up to a mile Still holds a Guineas entry and stable (C Britain) in pretty good form Having said that, this looks a pretty hot little handicap with runners from Gosden, Johnston, Hannon, Bell and Elsworth as well as Clive Brittain.
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Re: Kempton 27th March (AW) 3.25 I can see an upset here with 4 out of the 6 runners being regular front runners. Think it could be worth backing the two hold up horses, who are also at pretty big odds, EW, for small stakes December Draw (EW) is in good nick and is improving, you can get 14/1 BOG with Corals Sunrise Safari (EW) goes well here although hasn't won, stable isn't in great form and he might need the run, but he's 25/1 BOG with Betfred If either of these two are to get a place you'd have to hope that the front runners will take each other on. The liklehood is that Suits Me and Heliodor might have the race between them, but we'll see !..............:unsure
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Re: Kempton 27th March (AW) 2.20 Elnawin to win, 9/4 BOG with Bet365 With Tiddliwinks going odds on there might be some value here with the Hannon runner at 9/4 and maybe drifting further if the money keeps coming for the Tiddler. He won a group 3 over this CD and he's up against handicappers today, tho' Tiddliwinks may be better than that in time. Hannon is a master at getting them ready after long breaks, so I wouldn't worry about that. On Wed and Thurs here nearly every race was won by hold up horses but with just 5 runners Elnawin can make all here, slow it down and use his clas at the business end.
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Re: Best bet of the day Sat 27th March 3.10 Donny - The Lincoln - Viva Vettori - EW at 18/1 BOG with Laddies Fits the 'profile'..........lightly raced, on career high mark, has won at 10 furlongs, got a nice draw. He won a Listed race at Kempton last time on the AW and the penalty for that win sneaks him in here down at the bottom of the weights Elsworth stable in good form
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Re: Last Man Standing Comp ~ Week 1 3.10 Donc - Viva Vettori
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Fri Mar 26th 3.15 Ling - Orpsie Boy - win lay Must be an uneasy favourite as he hasn't won for two years and is badly drawn on the outside of the field. They've tried him over longer trips recently which suggests his speed might have gone, so coming back to 6F at Ling, the fastest of the AW tracks, doesn't look promising for him.
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Re: Lingfield - Friday 26th March 3.15 Ling - Secret Witness - win at 6/1 BOG with Bet365 The front 3 in the market here all appear to be on the downgrade and none of them are regular winners these days. Secret Witness is relatively lightly raced, still on the up, and his last run here , 2nd to Lucky Redback, reads pretty well. The fact that LR has been beaten twice since has, I think, more to do with him being best fresh. Harris stable in good form and the blinkers are back on today.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 26th March 2010 3.15 Ling - Secret Witness - win at 6/1 BOG with Bet365 The front 3 in the market here all appear to be on the downgrade and none of them are regular winners these days. Secret Witness is relatively lightly raced, still on the up, and his last run here , 2nd to Lucky Redback, reads pretty well. The fact that LR has been neaten twice since has, I think, more to do with him being best fresh. Harris stable in good form and the blinkers are back on today.
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Re: Lay Of Day - Thurs 25th March 7.50 Kemp - Jake The Snake - place lay Better at 8F and tonights race looks a muddle pace-wise which might not suit him at 7F Hasn't won a handicap for ages but is still 12 lbs higher than his last win by virtue of keeps winning claimers. Handicapper won't drop while he's winning claimers !
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Re: Kempton 25th March (AW) (eve) 7.50 Aroundthebay - EW at 25/1 BOG with Stan James Just had a little EW on this one on the basis that it seems to go best after a break, has course winning form at 6 furlongs, has won in class 4, is lightly raced and is trained by one of the Dunlops Not much obvious pace in tonights race, Caprio will probably end up at the front, but if he does I imagine he'll try and go slow as he has a decent kick finish. This would also suit my selection and disadvantage a few of these who seem better at 8 furlongs..........and the likely favourite, Lucky Redback, who took time to get going in a muddling race last time and could face the same problem tonight.
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Re: Kempton 25th March (AW) (eve) 5.50 Kemp - Dr Mathias - EW at 8/1 BOG with Stan James Drops into claiming company after a decent run in a handicap where he was well there until weakening at the finish. That was his first run for a few months and he might just have needed a run I've been looking at trainers on the AW and PD Evans has lots of runners and runs his horses every week on average but he doesn't have many winners coming off a break (on the basis of my limited research). I think he gets them fit by racing them, so i expect his horses to come on a bit for a run My main worry about this one is that he's had 28 days off since that first run of the year. I'm wondering wether in Evans-World that counts as a long break and he might need a run again............
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 25th March 2010 5.50 Kemp - Dr Mathias - EW at 8/1 BOG with Stan James Drops into claiming company after a decent run in a handicap where he was well there until weakening at the finish. That was his first run for a few months and he might just have needed a run I've been looking at trainers on the AW and PD Evans has lots of runners and runs his horses every week on average but he doesn't have many winners coming off a break (on the basis of my limited research). I think he gets them fit by racing them, so i expect his horses to come on a bit for a run
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Re: the start of the flat/lincoln handicap Penitent gets stall 1.- should firm up as favourite Doctor Crane gets stall 22 - expect him to drift ! Manassas is not running
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Re: Kempton 25th March (AW) (eve) Poor card......... Three maiden races, three class 6/7 handicaps (which I'm trying to avoid for betting on) Poor show......... I bet the decent handicap goes down to 7 runners by the off.........:wall
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Re: Kempton 24th March (AW) (eve) I thought 'Myplace' had got up on the line !..........unlucky on the head bob there !
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Re: the start of the flat/lincoln handicap
The Life famously has a 'Think of a number' attitude to Official Ratings. The Post have him on 98 !big price on doctor crane, was 9 or 10/1 last time i looked a couple of days ago. am i reading the ratings wrong with him? rated 93, carrying 9st 2lbs, equivalent to others rated 98. does it get 5lbs extra or what? or are the sporting lifes ratings wrong? also anyone know if any of the runners have been gelded since their last runs? where would i find out? questions, questions!!! :tongue2 -
Re: Kempton 24th March (AW) (eve) Well done guys on Lord of the Reins ! What a price..........7/2 ! I backed it this morning at 9/4 with BOG and I'm well delighted with 7/2. :nana
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Re: Kempton 24th March (AW) (eve)
here's my post........ Kemp 9.20 - Cavalry Guard - EW at 20/1 BOG with Paddy power Had a short list of 5 for this race when I looked at it last night and Cavalry Guard was by no means bottom of that list.!.........so at 20/1 looks a good EW punt. Drops down to a Class 7 for the first time and down a couple of pounds in the weights as well. According to my speed figs he runs his best races over this CD and is pretty consistant here, usually beaten about 3 lengths in class 6 handicaps but churning out pretty much the same figure every time, and i reckon if he runs the same race again he should be in the shake up in this lower gradeTrotter tipped Cavalry Guard in the bbotd thread and i also will be on him.
I think its time.....
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: I think its time..... Good luck, bowles........... Maybe a change of scenery might do you good.........put the trends research to one side for a while and look at something different for a couple of weeks Sprint handicaps on the AW for example, something well removed from the races you normally look at. I often find a change of races freshens me up when I'm feeling jaded.......