Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Friday 21 May 2010 Just seen barni's race - that's a couple of necks/noses have gone the wrong way today ! It's a tough old game is this !...........:loon
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 20/5
Cheers stu ! must say that 'frank' gave her the perfect ride, held up in 3rd and 4th place and sprinted clear. I was worried he'd hold her up 8 lengths behind the rest of the field and end up a fast finishing neck 2nd............:loon:nana Well done with this one mate :ok -
Re: Lay Of The Day - Thursday 20th May 3.15 Southwell - Crystal Feather - win lay 2nd fave here but I don't think it will get the trip Has ran here twice here over shorter trips and been well beaten, so it's not provan that he handles the surface. It's probably a safe 'place lay' but I'm in such bad form that I'm grasping for pennies to try and get back in profit for the month, so I'm not risking a place lay
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 20/5 Southwell 4.55 - La Zamora - win at 8/1 BOG with Bet365 6 runner handicap over 7 furlongs A few of these look like they really need 8 furlongs, a couple ran badly last time out and a couple have no experience of the fibresand I keep coming back to La Zamora who steps up from 5 furlongs to 7 today Her breeding looks ok for 7 furlongs and she has some decent form on soft ground (and has run here before). She won a Class 2 handicap at newmarket last season, so obviously has ability. Looks like she's been cryng out for a step up in trip, so it's a bit of a worry that they've kept her to 5F and i can't figure out why Booking of 'Frank' looks significant as i guess they're gonna hold her up and try and outsprint the field at the finish, and 'Frank' is a good hold up jockey (it's the sprinting at the finish that he'll probably get wrong !)
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm not so sure about Webbow for tomorrow's race He looks like a badly handicapped horse to me - hasn't won for two and half years (14 losing runs) , yet is still 7 lbs higher than his last winning mark He's also 8 years old and unlikely to be improving. Shame about the ground - if there was a bit of cut Trans Sonic would look good - he's improved massively over the winter on the AW and runs here off a lower mark. According to my speed figs he's been churning out Listed class times at Southwell, but he doesn't seem effective on good to firm ground. I might have another look at the race tomorrow...........:unsure It's all about opinions !............:)
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Re: Lingfield 19th May All weather races....... 4.10 Chjimes looks the safest option here back on his favourite stamping ground with Mutamared as the obvious danger, but he seems to be a bit out of nick at the moment. Those are the top two on ORs, but lower down the rating I quite fancy Don Pele at an EW price, he has the plum draw and is in good form relative to this grade Chjimes - win at 4/1 Don Pele - EW at 16/1 4.45 - I'm a bit dubious about the two top rated horses in the claimer (Samarinda and Orchard Supreme). Both of them look out of form and both look like they need further than 7 furlongs, though the drop in class gives them both a good chance 'on the book'. Looking at the bigger priced ones I think Hinton Admiral could go ok, he's had a couple of runs since a break and now steps back up to his best trip. His two 'prep' runs have been over 5F at Wolves, which is too short for him and he doesn't go well there usually. He's won here a few times. Hinton Admiral EW at 10/1 5.20 - Expensive Problem is the selection here to follow up a last time out win. I'm 'chasing' here after selecting him last time when he won at 10/1 but I didn't back him. Not sure I'll back him today either as he's a bit short for an EW, but he did win with something in hand last time. The other one i fancy is the top weight, Kiss A Prince, who is lightly raced, has a good record on the AW and is having his second run back after a break. Expensive Problem - win at 9/2 Kiss A Prince - EW at 8/1 I've been going through a bad run recently and have had a break from betting. But 2 of my last 3 in BBotD have been winners, so maybe it's time to 'get back in the saddle' - I'll use todays selections as a guide to my form !............:unsure
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Re: Carlisle May 18th (eve) nice one bowles !..........:nana Good to see a terrific bit of research paying dividends.........I'll watch out for that fellow on the AW next winter when he has two quick runs........
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Re: Carlisle May 18th (eve) Nice one chris........(i had him in BBotD !) Don't know what happened there - when I flicked over a few minutes before the 'off' he was 3/1 Favourite. In the next couple of minutes he drifted right out to 6/1.............:loon The guys on track were saying that he looked well, so it couldn't have been that. Still, who cares..........6/1 is brilliant !
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Re: Best bet of the day May 18th carlisle 7.30 - Templetuohy Max - win at 4/1 BOG with Bet365 3rd run back from a break and returns to around 10 furlongs after a couple of races at 8 furlongs, which have the look of 'running into fitness' Got well thrashed on his first run of the season, but ran on nicely last time to suggest he was getting ready to put his best foot forward when stepped back up in trip Has a good chance tonight with a couple of front runners to set the race up for a pace tracker Has won off his current mark before.
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Re: LOTD 18th May Apologies BH, that should be the 7.30 at carlisle......
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Re: LOTD 18th May Carlisle 8.00 - Celtic change - lay won last time out by making all, uncontested lead, slowed it down and quickened in his own time Has the penalty tonight, an extra two furlongs (nearly), an uphill finish and another front runner in High Office to hassle him Of the two i fancy High Office to come out on top as this seems more his trip, but they might take each other on and leave it for something coming from behind.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ May 17th Wolv 4.10 - Cavitie - lay Has no course form and seems best at Southwell on the fibresand. Ran well on poly last time at kemp but that was 6 furlongs and i think 5 furlongs might be a bit sharp for him unless it's at southwell
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ May I'd say 'keep it simple' BH....... Stick to the rule that there must be a betfair market As you say, it would get terribly tricky if people were place laying with no betfair place market. That would come down to guesswork
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm loving this thread ! Re - the losing run.........I'm in the middle of my first real 'losing run' since I started betting again in February. Things had been going so well that it only took half a dozen losers to set the alarm bells ringing. I realised that i was slipping into bad habits and reading the above few posts it seems that it's the same 'bad habit' that you guys mention. I was putting maximum bets on a couple of favourites and I was doing it two minutes before the 'off' because I'd just made a cuppa and fancied settling down and watching a race on the telly 'with an interest' In both cases it was a race I'd studied but had come to no conclusion about - in other words a 'leave alone' race I've got my own phrase for this scenario - 'panic betting'......... In order to avoid panic betting I just took a break of a week or so with no bets in the hope that when I resume, it'll be out of my system and I can start afresh. Don't know about you guys, but I think the thing to avoid at all costs is trying to bet your way out of bad habits - take a break !
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Re: Lay of the day - Sun 16th May Ripon 3.40 - Tiger reigns - lay Strange litte race this one Only 6 runners and it's difficult to seperate them, most of 'em seem better with cut in the ground, none of them look 'well in' at the weights If i was pricing this up, I'd just put 'em all at 5/1 and see what happens I think it's worth opposing the favourite on the basis that they've all got pretty equal chances and you have 5 running for you against him Tiger Reigns had a good year last year but rose through the handicap as a result and it seems a bit much to ask of him to carry on improving again this year
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010
No, I don't bother with turf racing at all - too many tracks and going variables ! I love doing ratings though, so I'm having a crack at form ratings for group races. My top few for today...... 125 - Dick Turpin 124 - Siyouni 119 - Zazou (poor draw) 119 - Buzzword 118 - Poets Voice (poor draw) I'm more cofident with the older horses though, where I have more runs to go on Taling of the draw, Special Duty is drawn 12 of 12 in the 'Pouliches' - be interesting to see how that pans out !do you do your speed figures for the french races trotter or is it harder to get times and standards? ..... -
Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice one, Fin I've been looking at that race tonight and also have Aldovrandi as a good outsider for an EW after the AW performance At the moment he's about 33 on the PMU, but i think he might drift tomorrow when the French turfistes start backing their own horses........ Apart from his lack of experience he also hasn't got a great draw, which might put me off
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Sat, May 15th Newb 3.05 - Zacinto - lay Agree with walter about this one - he's a good looker, but his form doesn't match Paco Boy and i think Lord Shanakill might finish in front of him as well I can see those 3 filling the places, so i don't want to place lay I look at the horses who have finished 2nd to him when he's won group races - the likes of Ordnance Row and hartley - suggests he's picked up a couple of easy group races in his career and he's up against 2 group one winners here.
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Re: Last Man Standing Comp ~ Week 1 3.05 Newbury - Lord Shanakill reserve 2.00 Newbury - Blizzard Blues
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Re: Lockinge Stakes (Newbury) Newb 3.05 - Lord shanakill - EW at 14/1 BOG with Bet365 Paco Boy looks a 'good thing' but he's odds on and there's a small doubt him, might be better round a bend at 8 furlongs as he settles better in a group of horses. On a straight track they might be spread across the track and he might not get cover. He can pull pretty hard, as he did in this race last year when failing to win it. OK, even I'm not convinced about that argument too much.........fact is that I'm just not gonna go with an odds-on shot The return is bigger for LS to be placed than for PB to win and LS looks a cracking bet for a place. Group One winner who's tranferred to the all conquering Cecil yard from K Ryan. He loves the ground, gets a mile. His form looks second best in the race......... First outing for my 'new' group race ratings....... 124 - Paco boy 120 - Lord Shanakill 120 - Zacinto 117 - Pipedreamer 116 - Ouqba Zacinto looks ok, but the horses he's beat by short distabces in group races (like Ordnance Row and hartley) are not top notchers. I think he's won some easy group races.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Saturday 15th May Newb 3.05 - Lord shanakill - EW at 14/1 BOG with Bet365 Paco Boy looks a 'good thing' but he's odds on and there's a small doubt him, might be better round a bend at 8 furlongs as he settles better in a group of horses. On a straight track they might be spread across the track and he might not get cover. He can pull pretty hard, as he did in this race last year when failing to win it. OK, even I'm not convinced about that argument too much.........fact is that I'm just not gonna go with an odds-on shot The return is bigger for LS to be placed than for PB to win and LS looks a cracking bet for a place. Group One winner who's tranferred to the all conquering Cecil yard from K Ryan. He loves the ground, gets a mile. His form looks second best in the race......... First outing for my 'new' group race ratings....... 124 - Paco boy 120 - Lord Shanakill 120 - Zacinto 117 - Pipedreamer 116 - Ouqba Zacinto looks ok, but the horses he's beat by short distabces in group races (like Ordnance Row and hartley) are not top notchers. I think he's won some easy group races.
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Re: LOTD - Thursday 13th May Oh well, there we go again............romps home :(
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Re: LOTD - Thursday 13th May York 2.40 - Cape Blanco - lay Another O'brien hotpot crosses the Irish Sea to put his classic credentials on the line All the others have been sent home with their tail between their legs so hoping this will be the same I've totally 'lost it' in this comp in the last few days and I'm not overly confident about this one really.............:unsure Apart from the O'brien factor this horse has the least 'stamina' of the runners and I've found that these small field races often go to stamina horses, which is perhaps not logical, but it seems to be the case.
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Re: LOTD - Wednesday 12th May 3.10 York - Main Aim = place lay Stoute's yard are in spanking form at the moment so it's dangerous to place lay one of his fancied runners. Trouble is, it's a competitive race and the favourites are around 4/1 (probably 5 or 6 on befair) so it's not really worth 'win laying' to win about 20p............:spank I think this fast 6F on good ground will be too sharp for him as he usually wins at 7F and his wins at 6F have been on stiffer tracks and soft going. The ex-Aussie horse.will probably win by 6 lengths as they usually do when they come here for 'easy pickings'. Our sprinters are not in the same league as Aussie/US horses. Other than that I fancy sayif, inxile, showcasing to be there or thereabouts.
Lay Of The Day - Friday 21 May 2010
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Lay Of The Day - Friday 21 May 2010 8.40 Muss - Jackday - win lay Currently fave but this trip, 14F on g/f ground at a sharp track, looks a bit short for him. He hasn't run at under 2 miles for nearly 2 years and he tends to be one paced at 2 miles. His favouritism is probably based on a good run last time out, close up 2nd at Ripon, but he's gone up another 3 lbs for that run and he's up in class as well.