[Flat Racing - Tuesday, 22nd of November]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tues 22nd Nov Woo hoo..........I've had builders in for the last 3 weeks but they finished today ! I've not been able to concentrate on the racing with half a dozen Romanians stomping around my flat and i've had to get up at 7.00 AM because they start work at 8..........it's been killing me !..........and it can't be coincidence that I'm having a bad month on BBotD............:@ Hopefully I'll get back on track over the next few days and what better than an 8 race card at beautiful Southwell !...............:ok Quick run through ..........all 'win' bets 12.10 - Rowan spirit (5/1 PP) - CD winner who ran well last time out here to be pipped by Punching. Is a bit more lightly raced than most of these 'usual suspects' and has found some form in the last few weeks with a win on turf prior to that close 2nd. Current fave is Il Battista but drops back in trip and all his wins have been over 7f 12.40 Finbar (no odds yet) - I'll take this one to beat market rival Purple n Gold based on his CD win last time out. PnG makes his course debut and there's always a doubt as to wether they'll handle the surface. We know my selection does - he won a nursery here by 4 lengths last time 13.10 - J R Hartley (10/1 Bet365) - bit of a 'fancy' this one - only 3 year old in the field and although well beaten last time it was a very fast race and probably represents steady improvement on his 2nd to Il Battista the time before. Has won on the track before and is a lively outsider. Drops back in trip for his first run at 6 furlongs which would normally put me off but has good speed figs and might have enough pace 13.40 - Priceless Art (no odds yet) - looks a poor maiden for older horses. This one has been ok at novice hurdling with 2 wins and also won 2 bumpers on the AW track here last winter when they put on those extra bumper meetings during the freeze up 2.10 - Take Cover - (6/4 Wm Hill) - skinny price for a 14 runner handicap but this one has looked very impressive - unbeaten in his two runs to date, winning a maiden and a handicap on this track and looks one to follow until beaten. Recorded a fast time lto and should be improving with only 2 career starts to his name 2.40 - Le King Beau (no odds yet) - this looks dire and LKB will probably be odds on by default as he won last time out and all the others look real rubbish. It was a farce of a race he won at kempton, 3 runners walked around then started running a furlong out, but at least he won, which none of the others look like doing. Artists Corner has won a seller but looks to be regressive now and has taken to loitering at the start 3.10 - Daaweitza (7/2 Bet365) - goes well here and has 2 CD wins. Has been in pretty decent nick on turf lately but should up his game on the fibresand. His last 5 runs here have produced form figures of 12231. The current fave is CP Joe but he has no course form and is probably worth taking on 3.40 - Zarius (8/1 Laddies) - CD winner having second run back from a break, dropped a couple of pounds, hopefully come on a bit for the run and his Amatuer jockey takes 5 off but has won a race at the track. My BBotd selection

[BBOTD - Tuesday, 22nd of November]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 22 Nov Sou 3.40 - Zarius - win at 8/1 bog Laddies A 14 runner class 6 Amateur Riders event is probably best left alone but i quite fancy this one from the Chris Wall yard He's lightly raced for this company and has won here twice (his only career wins) Having his second race back from a summer break and has been dropped a couple of pounds. Ran OK on his return behind Il Battista - short of room, dropped to rear, ran on again late over a furlong shorter trip Hopefully will come on a bit for that run. His amateur jock takes 5lbs off. He's not very experienced but has won a race here for Richard Fahey I suppose these kind of races are a bit of a lottery but i can only see 3 horses with a winning chance so 8/1 looks a good bet

[Tidal Bay]

Re: Tidal Bay

It should be mandatory public information that any horse has had any medical procedure. Paul Nicholls has history in keeping this information quiet. Remember Denman finishing 3rd in last years Henessy , he had a breathing operation the week after , but the public weren't told until 3 weeks before the Gold cup. That sort of information could drastically change the shape of the ante post market.

I agree........it's really annoying when they tell you after the race that the reason it improved was because it had a breathing op And nicholls seemed to send 'em all to the surgeon at some point..........I'm surprised the RSPCA haven't picked up on this i did read that one of his, Pasco, has had the op this summer, so expect him to dot up at some point shortly

[Flat Racing - Tuesday, 22nd of November]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tues 22nd Nov

This is my first bet at Southwell this season. I'm yet to know how much pace constitutes 'too much - fast' or 'not enough - slow' because the Fibresand makes it different to the other AW courses. It is supposed it rides quicker and an early lead is a great advantage. I'll err on the side of caution in this race then.

I think it rides 'slower' than the other AW surfaces because it's a deeper track The main additional advantage here (as opposed the normal advantage anywhere else) of being at the front is that you avoid kickback from the other horses. This can be quite severe, literally like having sand kicked in their face, and a lot of horses can't handle that ! Another adavantage of front running here is that you can pick your route when you turn into the home straight - ideally you want to come off the rail and run up the middle of the track, which appears to be a faster 'strip'. The 5 furlongs here is faster than Wolv or Kemp because it's run on a straight track and the deeper surface isn't as much of a slowing down factor as running round a bend. Lingfield is round a bend but is quicker because part of it is downhill From 6 furlongs upwards I reckon Southwell is the slowest of the all weather tracks. I also have a theory that because they run slower horses will stay further here - so, eg a 7 furlong horse at wolves will get 8 furlongs here..........but this theory isn't based on much evidence ! Still I do get quite a lot of winners backing milers here who step up to the next longest trip which is 11 furlongs. With no 9 or 10 furlong races the milers are often a big price because of doubts over the trip - but they seem to be able to jog the first mile at a slow pace then sprint away up the straight

[IS Ante-Post a scam?]

Re: IS Ante-Post a scam? I agree that if a horse has been announced by the trainer as a non runner the bookies should take it out of their ante-post lists Or at least advertise it 'with a run' But then you get the New Approach scenario where the trainer said it was a unlikely runner in the Derby then it ran and won I suppose the odds must have drifted enormously after the trainers words but as it hadn't formally been taken out of the declarations they kept it in the list......and it's a case of caveat emptor if you still wanted to back it You've also got to be aware that many of the big races on the Flat (not sure about Jumps) have supplementary entry stages. You might be backing ante-post in ignorance of an unraced superstar who's going to be entered for the race at a supplementary stage It's all just too many ifs and buts for me...........I'd rather spend my time on horses that are definitely running today or tomorrow, where you know who they're running against and what current form they're in

[Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !]

Re: Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win ! Well done me !..........but of course i didn't back it :unsure Well done Andy........Phare isle ran well above expectations, you got the value there ! Georgian king was never in it really - don't know wether it doesn't like the track or not, but that adds to his poor record here. The guy on RUK gave a different suggestion - maybe it 'bounced' after running well in a hurly burly big field handicap 10 days ago...........sounds plausible

[Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !]

Re: Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win ! Well, i haven't had time to study the race but thought I'd better contribute something ! Thumbnails........ Georgian King -mostly positives, comes from a race at the recent Cheltenham open meeting where he finished 4th, acts on going, drops in class, gets trip, 7lb below last winning mark. Negatives - poor record here with 3 runs, bt 23L, PU, UR. Hasn't won for nearly 3 years Namarama - ex irish, lightly raced, best run lto over this kind of trip on good ground. Well beaten most starts, inexperienced, up 11 lbs for a 7L third so will need to improve a bit Fontano - has looked one paced over shorter trips and might be suited by extra distance though it's just as likely he'll still be one-paced but for longer ! Beaten 5 and 6 lengths off this mark so mark probably ok if he improves for extra distance. Won his bumper here. Would hope something could do him for speed in the finish but looks good for a place. Top Smart - up in trip an unknown, both wins have come on left hand undulating tracks. Up 7lbs since last win but that doesn't look insurmountable. Not sure he'll be suited by track Mzuri bay - creeping up weights without winning, looks like a one paced plodder, hopefully something would outspeed him in the finish Spanish cruise - 16 lbs higher than last win, has looked held off this mark, Best runs over slightly shorter trips. Amore Mio - seems to need soft ground, even 3 miles might be too sharp for him on good ground. Has been placed a few times off around this mark, suggests the handicapper has him about right - has never won a jumps handicap Phare isle - looks a dodgy character with a few P,U and F in his recent record. Only win came on soft ground. Cool Strike - was decent on flat but has never placed over the sticks and well beaten all times he's tried them. Not a hurdler ? Seven Days - ran in good novice races but was well beat. Has had a year chasing but well beat. Only win on heavy ground. Too long since he';s shown any form to merit consideration Well..........after that there's no bet here ! I think Georgian King has the best recent form and is the mosty likely winner but his course form and long losing run put me off a bit - and he's favourite I'd probably go with Fontano to improve a bit up in trip and with the yard in good form

[Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !]

Re: Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !

Oh Builders i thought you said Bailiff's

It hasn't come to that yet !..........:D The builders have been here 3 weeks.........it's doing my nut in, but they should be finished today..........:clap

[Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !]

Re: Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win ! thanks aidy............interesting ! I've got some builders in at the moment so i can't concentrate, but if they bugger off soon I'll get stuck into the race !

[Kemp 2.35 - Why they won't win !]

Seems like a lot of members have been studying this particular race going by the BBotD selections Thought it might be interesting to have a thread for a race where posters who have studied it put up the reasons why they have put a line through the horses they haven't selected I'm sure this is just as valuable a 'learning tool' as reading why they've picked the one they have to win ! How do you eliminate runners before settling on a selection ? Unfortunately it's not a race I've looked at unless i do it over the next couple of hours, but I'd still be interested to read this side of members selection processes !

[IS Ante-Post a scam?]

Re: IS Ante-Post a scam? A post from the heart ! No, it's not a scam Bookies offer odds on future events ante-post. The punter can play or not. The deal is that generally you are getting much bigger odds because of the uncertainty as to the horse running or not. If it doesn't run you lose Bookies are taking bets ante-post now on next years Derby and will offer prices about any of a couple of hundred horses. But we all know that only 20 or so will run. If you know of an unexposed but brilliant horse who you think could win the Derby you can back it now at 100 to 1. If it comes out next year and wins the Dante or another Derby trial, it's odds will be slashed to 5/1. If it never runs again you've lost. That's the chance you take. Also i doubt that bookies would put much effort into trying to get a 500 to 1 shot not to turn up. They're far too busy making sure there's a non runner in 8 and 16 runner races. Personally i don't do ante-post...........there's plenty enough racing today without thinking about a race in 2 months time. And like you i like to study every horse in a race when i'm having a bet, so I'm not going to waste my time looking at 30 or 40 runners for a future event when only 6 of them might turn up on the day.

[BBOTD Sunday 20th of November]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 20th of November Towc 2.45 - Mexican Bob - ew at 12/1 bog Bet365 Yard in good form and this one has his second run back after a long break. Seems best on good ground and his last win was 12f at beverley, so he should be ok with a stiff uphill finish. Ran on late on his reappearance which suggests he might come on a bit and the extra couple of furlongs should be in his favour today The short priced fave, Master Milan, looks one to take on coming from a win on a sharp left hand track on soft ground to Towcester on good going. It's a very different test today and I'm not all sure it will suit him

[KAUTO STAR - LEGEND]

Re: KAUTO STAR - LEGEND Absolutely fantastic...........:nana What a great horse.........and a great training performance by the team This should be right up there with Dessie's Gold Cup as one of the 'favourite moments' of jump racing in the years to come

[BBOTD Saturday 19th of November]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 19th of November Asc 3.20 Anquetta - win at 5/1 bog Bet365 Won convincingly over this CD three weeks ago and is unbeaten going right-handed in handicap chases, having also won at Leicester and sandown Good ground seems to suit him well and he comes from the henderson yard, which is now beginning to fire after a slowish start to the season

[Razor Royale Dies on Gallops]

Re: Razor Royale Dies on Gallops

Real shame, always gave his best, just shows how fragile these great big animals are I suppose.

I heard this yesterday. It was sad because when I got back into racing 4/5 years ago he was one of the first horses i latched on to, him and Souffleur, I think they were novice hurdling at the time RIP RR Someone said recently of horses that from the moment they're born their main purpose in life is to commit suicide. I suppose the highly evolved 'flight response' ensures the survival of the species but comprises the chances of any given individual

[Flat Racing Thursday - Kempton]

Re: Flat Racing Thursday - Kempton 5.20 - Kings Future - ew at 22/1 (VC) Not sure that this one wants 7 furlongs but it's best run to date was over tonights trip I'm picking this one solely on speed figs - it's got the best out of a pretty poor bunch and it's figs have been getting better run upon run Was savaged by the handicapper - put up 18 lbs for being beaten 3 and 6 lengths in two AW maidens.............probably means he can't win.......:loon

[Flat Racing Thursday - Kempton]

4.20 - Pastoral Jet - EW at 12/1 (generally available) Class 7 handicap and it might worth chancing the only unexposed horse in the field. Has been fairly well beaten in maidens, but that was running against 70s horses and now runs in a handicap of horses rated 49/50 Has tended to weaken in the finish previously but has had 11 weeks off and hopefully they've got some work into him to strengthen him up a bit As long as he doesn't fluff the start he's well drawn in stall one and the yard is on 100% on the RTF figs

[Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Nacarat is going to miss the race on saturday..........shame as he might have ensured a decent pace

[Racing trying to get the wider public into horse racing]

Re: Racing trying to get the wider public into horse racing Personally I like 4, 5, 6 runner races Don't take as long to study and I reckon favourites are often too short merely because it's a small field........the instinct being that they must have a better chance because there's fewer rivals I'd even like a 2 runner race if I thought the favourite was the wrong one of the two ! Don't think you can start voiding races just because there's only 3 or 4 runners. With 48 or 24 hour decs it's too late to organise another race and racecards have to be published I wouldn't like to go the Irish route of reserves either So to sum up - I don't think small fields are a problem and even if i did i can't think of a practical way around it.

[BBOTD - Wednesday, 16th of November]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 16th of November

The jockey William Buick gets his 5th runs' date=' whit [b']Santefisio. The norwegian jockey are in amazing form, at the moment, winning 33,33 % of his runs whitin the last 14 days.

Born in Norway but holds joint UK and Danish citizenship You can claim him for Denmark !.................:D

[Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps]

Re: Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps

No trotter i was saying we cant just create top class races and put them on a sunday fair enough if we switch a saturday to a sunday but i dont think new races should be created thus dilluting an already dilluted field

Well, I agree with you there ! On the flat it's ridiculous the number of group one races - there's nearly one a week for Milers from mid season onwards. All the top horses can avoid each other and still win 2 or 3 group ones each But I still think they should switch some saturday meetings to Sunday - you get ridiculous days when, for example, Newmarket, newbury and haydock are all on saturday, all with some Listed or group races and big handicaps

[Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps]

Re: Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps

However much us English would like to see top class racing on a Sunday' date=' we cant keep on being so selfish and have to respect the European calender there are just not enough top class horses to go around, as "the rat" said there is usually top class racing in Ireland on sunday and England on saturday with some French thrown around to usually on Sunday so dont think we can be to selfish.[/quote'] I don't get that argument...........are you saying that horses that would have run in a french race on a sunday will now switch to an english race because it's on sunday and not the day before ?

[Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps]

Re: Saturday Afternoons - Flat V Jumps Don't know if I'm getting lazier or what but I prefer the small field midweek rubbish..............:lol I'm going off the AW a bit because nearly every race seems to be 12-14 runners I just can't be bothered studying races with more than about 8 or 9 runners and if I do pick a horse for the comps from those races i do it on minimal study and by fancy or flutter...............or just from background knowledge of following the sport A nice 5 or 6 runner race with a false favourite is what I look for.......... Being stuck at home nearly all the time I like the midweek racing - there's nothing else on so i watch it every day On saturdays there's so much racing, plus usually footy and so on that i end up making a chronological list of the races i want to watch and just flick to the approprite channel at 'off' time Don't know why we can't have more high class meetings on Sundays.......especially when we get two big meetings on a saturday, why not hold one back till Sunday ?

[Do you use a forecast?]

Re: Do you use a forecast? The RP forecast isn't usually there when I'm looking at tomorrows racing, though if you flick over to their 'Betting Site' it's there The Life's forecast is never very accurate I usually don't bother to look at any race until actual prices are up because I assess each horse in the light of it's price.

[BBOTD - Monday, 14th of November]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 14th of November Plump 2.30 - Flaming gorge - win at 9/4 bog PP This one looks to be between the front 2 in the market amd I'll take the current 2nd fave to beat the current fave My selection comes from the Nicholls yard and has some handicap chase experience having finished 2nd in a couple of outings last season. He acts on the ground and goes ok right-handed having been narrowly beaten at Exeter The favourite is from the in form Lavelle yard but makes his chase debut after winning a bumper and finishing 3rd and 4th in a couple of novice hurdles.