Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Top US sires Are the stats just 2 year old runners at Southwell, Jay ? Seems an awful lot..........:unsure I never know what to make of stats like this, I think sire stats are a minefield of logical fallacies.............:D eg.........trainers get in their head that 'Pivotals' need a bit of cut so they run their 'Pivotals' on soft ground, so they tend to do their winning on soft ground, which reinforces the trainers opinion that Pivotals need soft ground
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Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Ling 2.30 - Suhailah - ew at 16/1 bog Wm Hill This is a poor horse in a poor race but at least he has run some decent races here at lingfield. Both his career wins have been here. Has been gradually getting closer in his 3 runs since a summer break and ran quite well last time out at kempton where he was in place contention behind a 7 length winner, finishing 4th. is now a pound below his last winning mark and one of his wins was in a big field (15 runners, same as tomorrow when the inevitable one pulls out for bookie purposes) Yard in decent nick with 3 winners from the last 10 runners
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 16th of October Kemp 5.30 - Fennis Boy - win at 11/8 bog Wm Hill This looks like a 2 horse race on paper between the current joint favourites, my selection and AP's mount Cock of the Rock My selection ran his best race for ages last time - it was his first run in England since coming from Ireland where he'd been generally well beaten on soft/heavy ground. It was also his first run since March and first run for Tim Vaughan. He finished well that day after jumping right - maybe this right handed track might suit him better ? Cock of the Rock has looked one paced and tends to weaken at the end of his races. He's also got another front runner in the field to take him on. I reckon my horse is the most likely to be running on at the finish and I'll take him to get past a probably tiring rival
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Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October I've really enjoyed watching the Cheltenham races for the last couple of days I nearly backed Chicago Grey but changed my mind..........and didn't back anything So that's like having a winner ! :p After a couple of years concentrating on the all weather over the winter I'm tempted to have a go at the Jumps this year for a change........I've had a couple of bets on the jumps in the last week and have a 100% record. I like the small fields, seems more chance of picking a winner.........:hope
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ October BH.......my winner today was 'to win' in BBotD (i did it EW in the Cup !)
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round Selections (2pm Deadline) Cheers wizz !..........:) well done to all todays winners !
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Re: Champions Day Fantastic days racing............ Well done to the BHA, Quipco, Prince Fahad, Ascot and Newmarket for gettiing it up and running The BHA might do a lot wrong but they've got this spectacularly right !
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round Selections (2pm Deadline) Think I'm out now unless Cirrus des Aigles wins.......... Come on my son !...............:p
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Re: Champions Day 3.00 - Dancing Rain I like the chances of the 3 year old oaks winner here getting 7 lbs from the older fillies After making all at epsom they tried holding her up in the Irish Oaks and it didn't work Next time in Germany they went back to plan A and she demolished the field I think Ascot suits prominent runners as there are a couple of sharp turns and if she can get a lead and wind it up from the home bend she could be difficult to peg back As a saver I'd have Meeznah - she stays well and her stamina could come into play if it's a fast run race which probably wouldn't suit Dancing Rain
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Re: Champions Day 4.10 Ascot - Cirrus des Aigles - win at 9/1 bog PP I've been following this horse all season and will give him a last chance to win a group one race He's been beaten a quarter length by both Goldikova and Sarafina in midsummer group one races. Since then he's gone on the rampage in group 2 and 3, winning by 3, 8 and 10 lengths Being a gelding he wasn't eligible for the Arc so had the luxury of a prep run for today on Arc weekend following a break of 5 weeks. He's a horse that thrives on racing so he'll probably come on a bit for that prep run, which wasn't too shaby, beaten a nose in a group two giving weight to a group one winner Obviously the worry is that he always finds one too good at the very top level so this has to be his last chance saloon So You Think is the most likely winner but we don't know how he's come out of the Arc. That was a very fast run race and could take some recovering from. The same applies to Snow Fairy, who finished ahead of him. Midday has never won against colts Nathaniel might find this trip on good ground too sharp Of the 6 horses at the top of the betting Dubai Prince is the dark horse. Came back from injury to win a class 3 stakes race last time. He's a lightly raced 3 year old who appeared to be just about the best 2 year old in ireland last year before going to Godolphin. I'm put off by the fact he's been injured I see the race panning out with Cirrus prominent and kicking for home a furlong or so out............So You think, Midday and Snow Fairy chasing him down But will they catch him ?
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 15th Of October 4.10 Ascot - Cirrus des Aigles - win at 9/1 bog PP I've been following this horse all season and will give him a last chance to win a group one race He's been beaten a quarter length by both Goldikova and Sarafina in midsummer group one races. Since then he's gone on the rampage in group 2 and 3, winning by 3, 8 and 10 lengths Being a gelding he wasn't eligible for the Arc so had the luxury of a prep run for today on Arc weekend following a break of 5 weeks. He's a horse that thrives on racing so he'll probably come on a bit for that prep run, which wasn't too shaby, beaten a nose in a group two giving weight to a group one winner Obviously the worry is that he always finds one too good at the very top level so this has to be his last chance saloon So You Think is the most likely winner but we don't know how he's come out of the Arc. That was a very fast run race and could take some recovering from. The same applies to Snow Fairy, who finished ahead of him. Midday has never won against colts Nathaniel might find this trip on good ground too sharp Of the 6 horses at the top of the betting Dubai Prince is the dark horse. Came back from injury to win a class 3 stakes race last time. He's a lightly raced 3 year old who appeared to be just about the best 2 year old in ireland last year before going to Godolphin. I'm put off by the fact he's been injured I see the race panning out with Cirrus prominent and kicking for home a furlong or so out............So You think, Midday and Snow Fairy chasing him down But will they catch him ?............:loon
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round Selections (2pm Deadline) Asc 2.25 - Society rock - ew at 6/1 bog PP Asc 3.00 - Meeznah - ew at 9/1 bog PP Asc 4.10 - Cirrus des aigles - ew at 9/1 bog PP Good luck wizz !,...........and everyone else in the cup :ok
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Re: Colts and Geldings f = filly, a 2,3 or 4 year old female m = mare, a 5 year old or older female c = colt, a 2, 3 or 4 year old male h = horse, a five year old or older male g = gelding, any age male with it's bits removed :ok
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Re: BBOTD Friday 14th of October Don't fancy this afternoon's flat meetings on soft/heavy ground so I'm looking to the jumps............. Chelt 3.20 - Paint The Clouds - win at 5/2 bog VC Has won his last 4 races and comes here fresh off a summer break won first time out last season has won at the track, has won over this trip and has won on good to firm ground (which might catch out some of his rivals) Mccoy up - he's been in the saddle for the horse's last 4 wins. He's favourite but looks a good favourite !
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if you're at a loose end with nowt on telly....... Radio 5 live has a racing show just starting shortly with Hayley Turner and Mick Fitzgerald
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Re: Dr Dettori This reminded me............can anyone remember what that Kylie song was with the video where she was floating in a spaceship gradually losing her clothes........ all in the best possible taste of course.............:p
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 13th of October Well done Andy ! I'm off to kempton for a bit of an EW longshot tonight........... Kemp 8.20 - Height of Summer - ew at 25/1 BOG Laddies Beaten over 90 lengths last time on turf and over 30 lengths every other time he's run on turf...........but his all weather form is ok ! He's won here at kempton, he's got a good draw and the yard have been banging in the winners recently Obviously that 94 length beating last time out is a worry and I'm hoping it was the soft ground and the undulating track at Goodwood that he didn't handle As long as it wasn't a physical problem i reckon he can bounce back on polytrack .............
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Re: Champions Day We've yet to see the final decs but it looks as though it's going to be a resounding success ! Mouthwatering days racing.............not only are the big guns turning out but the French are coming in force The BHA must be 'over the moon' that Frankel, So You think, Nathaniel, Fame and Glory, Deacon Blues, Moonlight Cloud etc are all due to line up. I thought last week's Future Champions day was fantastic as well......... Have the BHA got something right...........:lol
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 13th of October Happy birthday Petersson !..........:nana
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Re: Flat Racing 12th October Cathy Gannon taken to hospital after being unshipped on the way to the start at Nottingham............ looks like it might be a broken leg hope she's ok.............
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Re: Form and the new whip rules
The Huntingdon 3.50 is a perfect example why so many horses would struggle to win under the new rules. Yes the winner bolted up' date=' but so many needed a wake up call to keep up with the pace. The jockeys weren't able to slap them and that's why you get a ridiculously big winning margin and the rest PU or nowhere (not travelling and not jumping well).[/quote'] lots of horses struggled to win under the old rules.......... there's still going to be a winner in each race - when you're looking at a race in a few months time when this form under the new rule is the current form. you'll see those horses from the 3.50 at huntingdon today and it'll show them as pulled up or beaten 30 lengths. That's the form you'll be looking at in the context of the race you're thinking of having a bet in I'm thinking from the punters point of view, not the owner or the jockey ! -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October Newc 4.30 - Berbice - ew at 25/1 bog Laddies Frustrating type who has only won twice from 60-odd runs but has been placed 17 times The RP comment today sums him up - 'has the ability but finds little for pressure' He usually travels well and todays trip, ground, draw etc are all fine I'm hoping he's the kind of horse that will benefit from the new whip rules in that he'll probably run his usual race and hopefully the ones who would have finished in front of him if this race had been run last week will run below their recent form because they won't be whipped as much In other words the new rules won't affect him as he never found much for 'pressure' anyway but it might inconvenience the others.
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Re: Form and the new whip rules
not sure what you're getting at......:unsure There's still going to be a winner in each race and it's up to the punter to try and find it. For the next few months you'll have an additional factor to take into account..........is the horse worth it's handicap mark under the new rules or has it only won races in the past because it needed vigorous whipping ? Alternatively........has that horse who always finished 4th or 5th now got a much better chance because it never responded to the whip anyway and it only got beat because the horses in front of it were whipped ? If you're willing to put the work in this could be a good oppotunity because most punters will probably just take the last few months form at face value without thinking about the new conditionsThe BHA might have handed me a way of finding winners! Dodgy results for dodgy punters :loon -
Re: Form and the new whip rules I don't think it will lead to 'false' results...........but it might lead to different results There'll still be a winner in every race but it might not be the same horse that would have won under the old system That's my concern from the punter's point of view..........how long do we give it until the form under the new system is the 'current form' (I'd say a few months) and do we trust the old form in the meantime ? i suppose we have to as it's the only form we've got until most of the horses have run a couple of times under the new rules. The alternative is to take a break for a few months until we have enough current form under the new rules.
Top US sires
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Top US sires
I forget lots of things Aidy.............it's my age !.........:p