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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    BBOTD Monday 29th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 29th 4.15 Epsom - Maybe i Won't - win at 9/2 bog wm hill The Gentleman's Derby at epsom today and this horse won it last year off the same mark as today and for the same 'Mr' rider Bounced back to form with a win at Nottingham last time out Must have a good chance of doubling up in this prestigious race for the amateurs...........

    Becoming A Winning Player

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Becoming A Winning Player I've been fairly successful since i started betting again 18 months ago after a 10 year lay-off Consistanly in profit on BBotD and as i only bet on one bookie account I can say that i've increased my initial bank by 8-fold in 18 months. But I'm only a small stakes merchant so it's a hobby not a living ! My angle is that i study the 'stage' not the 'actors'...........I study the tracks, the different configurations, how the going plays out on each track, what bends there are over different trips, wether they're flat, undulating, uphill finish, wether they suit front runners or trackers or hold up horses etc I tend to stick to the lower grade handicaps, say class 4 and 5..........you get plenty of races of manageable size. I try to stick to 6-10 runners as i don't want to be looking at 20 runner races. Horses in these handicaps tend to be fairly consistant and many of them run often enough that you can get a handle on what sort of track, trip, going suits them best. i think of the horses as the actors on the stage, they come and go but the stage remains the same. I figure that in a class 5 handicap most of the horses will be as good as each other within a few pounds and it's the race conditions that determine which one wins today Once i've picked my races i study each horse's form with reference to handicap marks, racing style and previous performances on the different tracks I suppose it's a bit of a cliche but i work along the lines that I'm generally looking for what i consider 'false favourites', horses that I don't think will be suited by the track/trip and looking for one that might beat him !

    bbotd sun

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: bbotd sun Just thinking that this month's comp was fizzling out a bit with no one getting any big priced winners when we have 3 winners over 20/1 today !! Well done lads !..........:clap and a few other winners as well............must be a cracking result for the thread !

    Flat racing ~ Saturday 28th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 28th August Just had a quick punt on Potentiale in the 2.45 at Goodwood but was too late to get it in as BBotD Only CD winner in the field and has won a couple of times for amatuer/gentlemen riders. Is in pretty good nick and has probably been aimed at this race having won it a couple of years ago for the same amatuer

    BBOTD 27th of August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 27th of August Redcar 7.55 - tahitian princess - win at 8/1 bog bet365 Poor sprint handicap here with lots of non runners because the ground has changed to 'soft' Still a big field though with 15 runners left in as of now - this hopefully will ensure a decent pace which will suit my horse as she stays further than 6f. She also goes on soft ground and has been getting closer to the winner in each of her last 3 runs The current fave is Hambleton who is a cd winner but disappointed on soft ground last time.

    BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Cup Final Selections (2pm Deadline)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Cup Final Selections (2pm Deadline)

    Should that be Elusive Pimpernel?
    Yes it should !..................thanks...........:D Sorry BH...........I was flicking between too many races. Just to confirm my list......... Good - 2.15 - Drunken sailor - win at 6/5 bog Bet365 Good - 3.20 - Poets voice - win at 6/4 bog Wm Hill Wind - 6.10 - Elusive Pimpernel - win at 7/4 bog Wm Hill reserves Newm 3.30 - Swiss dream - ew at 7/1 bog Laddies Newm 3.30 - Son of the cat - ew at 8/1 bog Laddies Good 2.50 - Regal realm - win at 2/1 bog Laddies

    BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Cup Final Selections (2pm Deadline)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Cup Final Selections (2pm Deadline) Good - 2.15 - Drunken sailor - win at 6/5 bog Bet365 Good - 3.20 - Poets voice - win at 6/4 bog Wm Hill Wind - 6.10 - Emerald Commander - win at 7/4 bog Wm Hill reserves Newm 3.30 - Swiss dream - ew at 7/1 bog Laddies Newm 3.30 - Son of the cat - ew at 8/1 bog Laddies Good 2.50 - Regal realm - win at 2/1 bog Laddies Good luck Falbrav !

    Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Did you watch the race Aidy ? Just for a moment there.............:p The horse was in a little group of 4 on the stands rail with the rest of the field in the middle of the track. It looked the stands group had it and in fact the winner came from that group and just for a moment it looked like FF was going to run on and get placed, but he faded and a handful of horses from the centre group went past him............. Finished 7th, beaten 8 or 9 lengths I thought he ran well for quite a long way and he might pop up back at Wolves...............:clap

    BBOTD 25th of August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 25th of August Wolv 8.15 - Final Liberation - win at 11/10 Wm Hill Lightly raced 3 year old who's struck form with a vengeance after being stepped up in trip, winning handicaps by 7L and 4L is up in the weights and up in class which is a combination I normally avoid but he's looked so impressive that i reckon he'll cope. Looks a typical prescott handicapper - ran over the wrong trip to get a low mark then run up a sequence Is an out and out front runner and should be suited by the track and the small field...........hopefully he'll be travelling well in front and kick off the bend. Red Courtier looks the main danger and he's a horse i like but I think he might have to settle for 2nd today Two CD winners in the field but neither of them look in particular good nick and the other horse (see Aidymacs selection !) hasn't run for a couple of years but would still need a handicap career best to win I reckon my horse will be odds on by race time so 11/10 looks good value.

    BBOTD Wednesday 24th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 24th August Wolv 6.40 - Storm Hawk - ew at 16/1 bog VC Has a terrific record over this CD with 2 wins and a second from 3 runs. Since his last run here they've tried him over 16 furlongs a few times and he doesn't appear to get that trip, fading close home on several occasions. They've also tried him in higher grades for his last couple of outings and he's been fairly well beat Dropped back down in grade today, back down in trip and back to his favourite track...........looks all set for an improved performance. In form claimer who's won with 3 of his last 5 rides takes 3 lbs off

    Placepot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Placepot This is how i understand it.........using nice round figures Lets say each race had 8 runners so 3 horses are placed in each race that is 3x3x3x3x3x3 possible winning combinations (or lines) = 729 possible winning lines lets say that between them punters have put 100 pounds on those lines lets say the total money staked on that card is 11,000 pounds and say the tote takes out 1,000 pounds for its running costs That leaves 10,000 in the pool the dividend is 10,000 divide by 100 = 100 pounds the decared 'result' would be - Placepot £100 to a £ 1 stake, Pool £10,000, winning tickets 100 Now if you did 2 horses in every race that would be 2x2x2x2x2x2 lines = 64 lines. If all your horses were placed and you'd staked it at £1 per line (£64 total) you'd have 64 winning lines of £ 100 each = £6400 if you'd staked it at 50p per line (64 lines at 50p - £ 32 total) you'd win half the dividend per line if you staked it at 25p per line you'd win a quarter of the dividend per line The dividend is always declared per pound staked.........you get paid pro rata on your stake The odds of the horses make no difference - it's all about the number of winning lines.

    Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Think chris has the nail on the head.........if you look at it's last 3 turf runs it's been beaten 19L, 12L and 21L off marks of 67, 63, 63 It's been beaten more than 5L in every turf handicap it's ever run in I quite like these differential marks for turf and AW as it can be a good source of winners - but I like horses who have improved in a spell on one surface returning to the other surface off a lower mark I don't think there's any evidence that this horse has improved on the all weather - his 3 wins over 2 years have come off marks between 62 and 65, not really a sign that he's improving, more that he can win off marks in the low 60s over the track/trip that suits him best

    Here Now And Why

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Here Now And Why Despite the horse winning today I still think Cowan spoke sense.........in the generality. There are always cases where an individual horse makes a monkey of you, but it's human nature to look for patterns and general trends so we can make sense of the mass of information available to us I always work on the assumption that horses who ran down the field in group races at 2 are handicapped too high and don't usually win a handicap until they're 4. It takes 2 years to get down to a winning mark I think this particularly applies to 'early season' two year olds who win their maidens and minor conditions races before Royal Ascot. Their handicap mark represents their relative position within the age group at that time. But the age group as a whole improves steadily with maturity. So a horse who might be a 90 horse amongst the two year olds in June but who doesn't improve will be a 70 horse within the peer group by the end of the season. It's not that he's got worse, it's that the generation as a whole has improved 20 lbs or so (I'm plucking that figure out of the air) during the season. You can measure this by the WFA scale. But if he hasn't run in the meantime he'll be running off 90 In other words he would have had to improve by 20 lbs in order to stand still in his relative position within the age group and still be a 90 horse at the end of the season But if he was a precocious early season type who was already fairly mature and hard trained in June, it's unlikely he would improve at the same rate as the 'average' of the generation

    BBOTD 21st August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 21st August 5.15 Folk - sacred shield - win at 5/2 bog bet365 probably not one of Sir Henry's leading lights but is having a good season at her own level. Has raced 7 times this year and never been beaten more than 3 and a quarter lengths, with 2 wins and 2 seconds Drops down a grade today and gets better ground than at sandown last time Although this is only a small field there are a couple of front runners to set the race up and my selection seems ideally suited by tracking the lead Captivator hasn't run for a couple of months and is 10 lbs above last winning mark having gone up another 3 for being beaten 2 lengths last time Medaille D-or interests me as the only CD winner in the field but she is up in class and in the weights It's a trappy little race..............:unsure

    BBOTD 20th of August (Saturday)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 20th of August (Saturday) Bath 5.40 - Pick a Little - win at 6/1 bog Wm Hill Improving 3 year old who rattled up a hat-trick in May/June including a win at this track He then went up in class and was beaten just half a length here (by my 10/1 BBotD !) Clearly goes well on the track, acts on the going and can resume winning ways now dropped back in grade My dangers are Maze, who's in good nick and the veteran Barons Spy who's 3-3 over this CD and has had a nice little break to freshen him up

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