Trotter
-
Posts
14,675 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Re: BBOTD 6th of September Ling 2.10 - Lady victory - ew at 28/1 bog bet365 Going to take a chance with Mick Channon's outsider here Has the plum draw up against the rail and first time visor to sharpen her up. She won her maiden on this track and on the projected good to firm ground, so the conditions should be no problem The problem is the last time run which was poor, beaten 17 lengths and finished last in a nursery at HQ. She was drawn on the outside that day (in the middle of the track) and jinked to the right on leaving the stalls and was always in the rear. She can't jink to the right today because the rail's there Big drop in class today from that Class 2 at Newmarket to Class 5 here and the handicapper has dropped her a couple of pounds as well The current first 2 in the betting are drawn in the widest 2 stalls which is usually regarded as a big disadvantage on the straight track here so an upset could be on the cards !
-
Re: St Leger I like Blue Bunting - triple group one winner and certain to stay, might even improve again for the extra trip
-
Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Thanks cowan ...........:ok I 'think' that more or less confirms what my 3 weeks of manual research earlier in the thread found.........:) The profile i look for in AW handicaps is a horse that's higher than it's last winning mark, has been getting progressively closer to the front in it's last couple of runs and has been dropped in the ratings since it's last run and of course.........one that i think is suited by todays trip, track, draw etc when all that lot comes together you're in with half a chance !
-
Re: BBOTD 5th of September Bath 4.10 - Maastricht - win at 4/1 bog wm hill Ten furlongs on this stiffish track is a real test of stamina for 2yos and no one better tham M Johnston at training horses for stamina. This one won last time out when stamina was at a premium, 8 furlongs at ponty on good to soft ground prior to that he'd been running over 6 and 7 furlongs at easy/sharp tracks and plugging on one-paced Hopefully he'll get out in front and set a decent clip
-
Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Thanks Cassius and Cowan for the info ! Cowan.........did you only look at Class 6 handicaps ? would it be possible to do a similar exercise say for Class 4 ? if it's not too much trouble ! I've got it in my head that the better handicaps would be even more likely to be won by horses racing off higher than their last win whereas the class 6 would have a bigger proportion of horses on the way down
-
Re: Flat Racing - Sept 4th Well done george !............toughest race of the day. :ok
-
Re: BBOTD Sunday 4th of September York 4.00 - Boss's Destination - win at 3/1 bog wm hill Has hit form in the last few weeks with a half length defeat at Ayr followed by an 8 length win when stepped up to 2 miles for the first time Still lightly raced and is open to improvement at staying trips Stable has hit form after a dicky spell in the summer
-
Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3.50 Kemp - Susan Stroman - win at 3/1 BOG bet365 Think I'll take on the odds on fave here - All My Heart won by 20 lengths last time, but that was at Southwell and he had an uncontested lead in a small field and the victory probably flattered him. Has run poorly twice at Kempton and has never posted a decent speed fig My selection is a CD winner and another front runner who could well harangue the fave up front. She's got better speed figs and more stamina and has shown an ability to quicken, whereas the fave looks a bit of a one paced plodder. ( On speed figs I've got Quiz Mistress top rated and she's 18/1......I'll feel a right mug if she wins !)
-
Re: FREE 250£ GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT I think I'll do the kempton ones regularly.........I'm studying the card anyway ! Might stick up a reminder in this thread for the next one...........:ok
-
Re: FREE 250£ GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT
Its all about the 4th race and double points' date=' 12/1 winner tonight, if you didnt have that then you were as they say,.....buggered[/quote'] I think the strategy has to be to go for a big priced one in the double pointer.........all or nothing !.............:p -
Re: FREE 250£ GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT The double points race had a 12/1 winner........so that would be 240 points for anyone who had that That's a big chunk out of the 380s that were up the top ! I had the 25/1 3rd in that race.............:spank.......that got me most of my points !
-
Re: FREE 250£ GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT Quick calculation - I make that about 150 points........which is more than i got ! You'd have finished around 37th...........the winner got 389 points.......:\
-
Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats Just wonder if it's worth resurrecting this thread as the evening turf meetings have finished and the all weather starts picking up the slack from now on........ The original idea was that it wouldn't be for 'tips' which can go in the daily thread but for general ideas, news, stats (in particular any original research which might give us an edge over all the people who don't read the forum !) I'll start of with a couple of snippets of news.......... Firstly Dundalk now has a programme of winter racing. I think it's likely that there will be much more travelling across the sea both ways and I'm going to include Dundalk in my speed ratings again after I gave up on it last year Second - I'm sure i heard on RUK tonight that Kempton are going to shut down for a month next year and re-do the surface. Not sure if this is good or bad. It might be that previous track form is unreliable on the new surface. But it might be that if you know this and other people don't it could give you an edge
-
Re: FREE 250£ GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT I finished 130th out of about 430 players........ 64 points.............:spank These free Bodugu games appear to be pretty regular with the Kemp evening meeting, you don't have to be a RUK subscriber to join in..........lets hope they keep them going over the winter !
-
Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Saturday Sept 3rd Here we go again - up fer t'cup ! Good luck everyone. Kemp 2.45 - Shamir - EW at 16/1 bog Bet365 Asc 3.45 - Ithoughtitwasover - EW at 20/1 bog Laddies Kemp 4.25 - Shumoos - win at 10/3 bog PP reserves kemp 2.45 - Primeval - win 7/2 bog bet365 kemp 2.45 - Red Gulch - win 7/1 bog bet365 kemp 2.45 - Indian jack - win 14/1 bog bet365 I'll be a bit miffed if i have 4 non runners in one race !............:lol Good luck Fin !..........
-
Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd September kemp 9.20 - Star in Flight - ew at 40/1 Stan james This looks a wide open race and I've found reasons to doubt all the market leaders, so think there could be an upset Star in Flight is a lightly raced 4 year old from the Meehan yard Won his maiden over 11 furlongs at warwick in July then ran a cracker in his first handicap, beaten just over two lengths by solid handicappers like Neeham and Kiama bay Last time out he disappointed at Newmarket but ran away from the pack with one other horse and was keen, so perhaps can be forgiven that run Both those last two races were over 12 furlongs on stiff tracks and he appeared to weaken in the finish, so a return to 11 furlongs here on a flat track might see him in better light If he hadn't run again after his handicap debut he'd probably be favourite here, so it's a tester for the theory that you should always allow a horse one bad run !
-
Re: FREE 250£ BADUGI GAME FOR KEMPTON TONIGHT I stuck an entry in last night.............
-
Re: BBOTD 1st September Kemp 9.10 - Magic Cross win at 9/1 bet365 CD winner who comes here after a 10 week break and can go well fresh as his last win came off a four month break Was fairly well beaten in his last two races back in June but drops in class tonight, down a pound in the weights and hopefully the break will have freshened him up Generally goes well on the poly with 5 wins and places from 8 outings
-
Re: La Vecchia Scuola He's a she, by the way............:D had a quick look at the horse but not in the context of a particular race, ie without looking at the opposition............:unsure First thing i note...........7 years old, highest winning mark 87, current mark 91, not won for a year Career best handicap performance needed at age 7.........that would put me off. Of course you'd have to put that in the context of who she's running against, but you'd have to think there would be some lightly raced, younger, improving types in the field for such a big handicap. ps.........they should run her on the all weather, she's got a rating of 63, she'd hose up !
-
Re: Bet Of The Day Tables : August Congrats mileni !..................:cheers Cheers BH for the top admin................:ok
-
Re: jockey importance? My view is that there are dozens of competant jockeys out there - if they're on the right horse they'll win. I just don't think there's enough difference between the top few dozen jockeys (basically the ones who ride every day) to make it worthwhile spending time on. And whatever differences there are can't be quantified in advance of the race. Good jockeys do bad rides and bad jockeys do good rides. You don't know in advance which it's going to be so it's just part of the randomness having said that I do have a quick look to see who's won on the horse before and it adds confidence to my selection if todays rider has ..........whoever he/she is
-
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st August Bath 5.00 - Steelcut - win at 16/1 Bet365 More of an EW shot really but I'll go win for the comp Takes a drop in class today to class 5 having run in a class 3 last time and is down a couple of pounds in the weights This is an unusual distance - approx 5.75 furlongs on a steadily uphill track My horse is equally effective at 5 and 6 furlongs and has won on an uphill track at sandown. Seems to act on any going He was in cracking form earlier in the year winning 3 claimers and a handicap That last run in the class 3 was a respectable effort and might signal a return to early season form.
-
Re: Time To Say Goodbye Cheers tabby............all the best ! You've made a good contribution while you've been around Wish you good luck.............:)
-
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 30th August Wolv 8.25 - African Cheetah - ew at 20/1 bog PP Think African cheetah might put up a better performance than his odds suggest ! Has a good record at the track with 2 wins from 4 outings. In one of the other runs he was only beaten just over 2 lengths in a class 3 handicap and the remaining run he pulled up lame I'm presuming the lameness was a leg injury and that might explain his last two runs on good and good to firm turf where he has been well beaten. Horses with dicky legs usually need a surface with a bit of give to run their race. He's had 3 months off since those turf runs to recover and is a horse who goes well fresh, having won first time back from his injury after a year off Might just be the right time to catch him !
All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: All Weather Notes, Ideas, Stats
The RP shows Sakhee's 'progeny average winning distance' as 9.5 furlongs ! .......and the horse's damsire figure is 10.3 furlongs so I'd think there's every chance this horse will be effective at 10 furlongs. In fact this ties in with another of my little research projects. I give each horse in the race a stamina rating which might not be too scientific for the breeding experts but it's quick and easy. I add together the sire and damsire AWD and divide bt 2 Knightley Escapade would be 9.5 plus 10.3 = 19.8 divide by 2 = 9.9 Round number are good enough for this so i call that a 9 I kept figures for 18 months for all AW races to record the stamina figure of every winner and have a chart for every distance at each track - 10f Ling 3 year old plus race winners (122 races) stamina figure and % of winners 6 and below - 0% 7 - 12% 8 - 28% 9 - 38% 10 - 17% 11 - 4% 12 and above - 0% At 9 the horse is right there at the optimum stamina for this trip at the track !