Trotter
-
Posts
14,675 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Re: BBOTD > Wednesday 15th May Bath 7.10 - Nimiety - win at 11/4 bog bet365 Only 4 runners left with lots of NRs Johnston's horse takes a big drop in class. Last time out on her first outing for well over a year she ran in a class 4 but was keen and went off too fast, fading to be well beaten Prior to her long break she had been placed in three class 2 handicaps off higher marks than today The risk is that after such a long break she's going to need more than one race to settle back into the routine but if that run has got the freshness out then she could be hard to beat here, particularly with Fanning riding from the front in a small field
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
You can back 3 of the 4' date=' and be guaranteed profit if one of those 3 win![/quote'] Yeah but you know damn well that the other one wold win ! So.............pick your 3 then scrub them and back the other one ! :rollin -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Bit of a rarity.... Looking at the Bath 7.10. There's a lot of non runners and as of now there are 4 horses left in................and they're all Best Odds 11/4 4 joint favs in a 4 runner race ! :unsure
-
Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 14th May 4.20 Winc - Barlow - win at 5/2 bog wm hill Takes a drop in class today, acts on any going and gets the trip I think in this small field they might press on with him and he has run some good races from the front He's probably been a bit disappointing really as he's gone off at short prices the last 3 runs but not managed to win one Maybe this lower grade is what he needs
-
Re: Figuring out how a race will be run... if you're looking at handicaps on the flat I wouldn't worry too much about the 'absolute' weight, ie the stones and pounds. The weight range in most handicaps is small enough not to make much difference to the running style. It's usually around a stone from top to bottom so about 7lbs either side of the mid-point weight. (As everyone will tell you, it's relative weights based on official ratings that count, but that's a diferent topic)
-
Re: Jump racing - 14th May Gotta be careful today ! I was looking at Wincanton for a BBotD last night when I saw the weather forecast !..........:unsure The going was good to firm and all the comments on the horses were based around good going but the weather forecast was for a deluge of biblical proportions............ I expect lots of non runners
-
Re: Figuring out how a race will be run... It;s very tricky because the assumption is that horses will always run the same way and of course they don't, plus you have a jockey who has some input into how the horse runs Some horses will always front run, like Overturn maybe, because they pull and veer around if the jockey tries to hold them up. Most horses are more amenable to different racing styles What often happens is that if you have several front runners the jockeys will be aware of it and they'll all be waiting for the other front runners to set the pace, so paradoxically you can get a slow run race as they all hang back doing an 'After you, Claude' Soft ground.............I reckon suits front runners as does a turning track because both of those slow the field down and increase the chance of a 2 furlong sprint If a race turns into a 2 furlong sprint it suits the horses at the front as they might have a 10 yard start and they can decide when the race begins so catch the others by surprise. A 10 yard start is worth more over 2 furlongs than it is over a mile Basically the slower a front runner can go the better his chance. Alternatively i like to see a front runner who stays further than todays trip. In that scenario it doesn't really suit to slow them up and sprint for 2 furlongs because the specialists over the shorter trip will probably have more speed I like to see a 'staying' front running set a fast pace and draw the sting out of the opposition. Uphill finishes help these horses as well.
-
Re: Guineas
May have won but Intello was the one to take from the race. Drawn 17' date=' had to drop in wide and then got blocked a few times before absolutely flying up the straight to be beaten a neck.[/quote'] I looked for his Derby odds immediately after the race but he's not entered ! I was really surprised as they've already had a trial run bringing him over for a race at the Craven meeting (which he won impressively) I suppose he might be supplemented ? -
Re: BBOTD - Saturday 11th May 3.55 Nott - Restiadargent - win at 7/4 bog boyles Bit of an in and oiut performer but at her best has some very good form Second to black caviar at Royal Ascot last year..............even if the wonder mare wasn't at her best, that's still pretty good ! What I like here is that the main market rivals are 3 year olds and they tend to struggle against older horses in early season sprints. They need to be well in advance of weight for age to win and my horse horse is rated 6lbs higher than the best of the 3yo
-
Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round~ Deadline 2pm Sat. Ling 2.20 - Secret gesture - win at 9/10 bog betvictor Asc 2.40 - Thomas Chippendale - win at 9/4 bog bet365 Ling 2,55 - Greatwood - win at 8/11 bog PP res Ling 4.00 - Kendam - win at 9/2 bog wm hill Hayd 3.00 - Boomerang Bob - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Good luck Corky !
-
Re: BBOTD - Friday 10th of May Chester 2.45 - Memphis tennessee - win at Evs bog bet365 Looks a 2 horse race on paper My horse is a CD winner, won this race last year, acts with cut in the ground and comes over from the O'Brien yard. He's also quite likely to make the running if he doesn't get a lead The other horse is Mount Athos who might well turn out to be the better horse as the season progresses. However I'm not sure this track will suit him as his wins tend to come on big galloping tracks like York, newbury, newmarket. He's won at Dundalk but that was early on and he was probably thrown in. He's also run poorly when he's encountered softish ground Both horses are officially rated 117 and carry the same weight today so I'm basing my selection purely on track and going suitability
-
Re: BBOTD Thursday 9th May Winc 7.15 - Miss Tenacious - win at 2/1 bog PP This looks a pretty poor race The current favourite, Teshali, is having his second run over fences and his jumping was a bit iffy last time. The fences at Wincanton are fairly big and they have 3 close together which tests jumping. Not sure his jumping will be up to it. My selection has won twice here, once over hurdles and once over fences. She's only 1 LB over her last winning mark
-
Re: Flat racing 9th May I've been looking at Highland Knight for the Huxley stakes, 2.15 Chester He's a group 2 winner in a group 3 with no penalty. He has to go left handed and he lugs to his left, he's a front runner so should get the rail, the track suits front runners and the small field should as well He's also a horse that usually needs a run or two to get race fit and he's had his 2 runs He nearly won a group 2 a couple of weeks ago but went left near the finish and Trumpet major nipped up his inside to pip him Everything looks great except for the trip.............extended 10 furlongs. He's 6 years old and suddenly he's upped in trip. This is a worry as you have to wonder why they've never tried it before Oh well.............I'm off to the Dentist.............:cry.................I'll have another look when i get back
-
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 8th Kemp 8.10 - Cape Alex - win at 7/1 bog stan james Looks to be only 2 or 3 of these in with a chance and Cape Alex is one of them Has been improving on the speed figs with each run since returning from a break and is reportedly a really big filly who's likely to take a few runs to get fit Drops in class today and down in trip. That's probably OK because although she's won over further she's also run well over todays trip. Chris catlin takes over from the apprentice
-
Re: Maiden help
I don't back maidens anymore' date=' waste of time. Minefields. But each to their own.[/quote'] That's the camp I'm in as well. I wouldn't really ever consider betting on a maiden race However i quite often look at them for the Daily Racing Comp because you often have a really short price favourite who's got nothing much to recommend him apart fropm being the favourite. I think the less information there is about the runners the more over-bet the favourite is likely to be because the market is the only information punters are looking at. So you can often find big priced ones that are in with a chance I suppose you could approach those same races with a view to EW betting on big priced ones............ -
Re: Maiden help Erhaab..............why not pick out some maiden races over the next few days and give us your thoughts on the runners. Maybe other people will look at the same races and give their thoughts and between us we can see different approaches being worked out on an actual race................ Could be an interesting thread !
-
Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 7th May Kemp 4.10 - Thwart - win at 4/1 bog betvictor Looking to take on the favourite here - Magique won a poor maiden in a slow time, the ones she beat have done nothing since and it's not obvious that she'll be suited by this step up in trip My selection ran well to finish 2nd on her handicap and seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago. If she comes on a little from the run she should be able to go one better today. Looks like she'll be suited by the extra furlong
-
Re: BBOTD - Monday 6th of May Kemp 5.20 - Charlotte Rosina - win at 7/4 bog bet365 Front runner who drops in class and has a small field race which should suit Hasn't won here but has some decent speed figs at the trtack so appears to handle it OK Second run back after a break and has Ryan Moore up for the first time There is another front runner, Dancheur, who usually goes off too fast..........hopefully my horse can sit behind her and take over and up the poace a couple out Ray of Joy loves it here and goes well fresh.......could be a big danger but is getting on a bit now.
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup Qualifying Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm
We need 8 players to go through to the next round which is Knock Out Quarter Finals Today is a play off between the 4 people tied for 8th placeAnother go?! How come?! :) -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 5th May Newm 3.50 - Hot Snap - win at 11/4 bog bet365 Not very original going for the favourite but Hot Snap just might be a bit special Beautifully bred and in the hands of Sir Henry Her win in the Nell Gwyn was one of the most impressive 'trials' for years and the extra furlong today must play into her hands if she's a bit late getting going again
-
Re: BBOTD 4th May 2013 3.10 newm - Universal - win at 7/2 bog betvictor disappointing turn out here of just 4 runners for a group 2 prize butb the small filed can play into the hands of my horse He doesn't always front run but he can as can most of of Johnston's if they need to The other 3 all look to be hold up horses. Noble Mission in particular pulls pretty hard if they don't go a fast pace, he could throw the race pulling and tugginmg for the first mile Dandini is probably the best horse here but is getting on a bit and hasn'r run since last year, might need an outing Wigmore hall looks a bit of a shadow of the horse he was a couple of years ago My horse is an improving stayer, won a group 3 last time (Noble Mission 3rd) and might just be up to winning what could be a weak group 2.
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup Qualifying Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm Good 2.20 - Reckoning - 7/2 Boyles Good 4.05 - Sentaril - 3/1 PP Newm 3.10 - Universal - 3/1 PP res Newm 3.50 - Dawn Approach - 15/8 Wm Hill Newm 3.50 - George Vancouver - EW at 16/1 PP Good luck everyone !
-
Re: Punting advice BUT..............the purpose of Pricewise isn't to make people money, it's to get publicity for the Racing Post. Judging by the number of times Pricewise gets favourable mentions on ATR, RUK, C4, racing forums etc..............I'd say it's doing it's job. People don't look beyond the headline 'Pricewise has another 25/1 winner' !
-
Re: Best Bet Of The Day 2nd May Ling 3.50 - Syncopate - win at 7/2 bog Ladbrokes There's a few of 'the usual suspects' running here in this AW handicap........I think it might pay to concentrate on the two younger lightly raced horses Current favourite is one of Michael Stoute's making his seasonal debut. Yard is on fire with 3 winners yesterday. Stoute's horse won his maiden on the AW and the 2nd turned out to be a good horse, but he got well beaten in 3 handicap outings. His market position seems totally down to the trainers name ! You couldn't fancy him on form, expect maybe that he should be suited by a step up to this 10F trip My horse won his maiden over CD and has finished close up in 2 of the three handicaps he's run in, both on polytrack. His mark doesn't look beyond him even going up 2lbs for latest 2nd. (Bit of a worry that Laddies are the biggest price............Is Pricewise going to tip something else in this race ?............:loon )
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread