Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup Qualifying Round ~ Deadline Saturday 2pm Hayd 2.40 - Souviens Toi - win at 9/2 bog wm hill hayd 3.15 - Pastoral Player - win at 3/1 bog PP hayd 4.25 - Professor - win at 6/4 bog wm hill res Bev 3.10 Supplicant - win at 2/1 bog PP Bev 3.45 Maxentius - win at 11/8 bog PP Good luck everyone !
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Re: BBOTD > Friday 7th June Pont 7.35 - Mayaasem - win at 13/2 bog bet365 Won his maiden over this CD and ran well on hcap debut to be 2nd at Chester, beaten under a length Chester is very differenmt to Ponty so he might be better back here and the trainer reported that the ground had gone against him at Chester as it turned soft through the day Tonights fave, Hoofalong, looks progressive but is up 7lb for a nose win and has no stiff track form
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Re: Can you win without inside knowledge According to the Post......."Unsurprisingly the stewards interviewed the trainer who stated that the gelding had problems with his jumping last year and has been given a break in order to re-school him over hurdles. He further added that the gelding was suited by this quicker ground and running for the first time in a handicap" The horse was really well handicapped on his flat form...............effectively running off the same rating as his AW mark People usually reckon there's a 40lb difference in jumps and flat marks, so you could say he was 40lb well in on his flat form
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Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK? Don't knock Southwell ! I had a very profitable Cheltenham week by following a simple strategy of not betting on any race at the Festival but having 2 bets at Southwell that week that both won............. :lol
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Re: Royal Ascot Betting Strategy?
i am looking the other way Trotter' date=' the QIPCO series is Global and is needed for the game. There is lots of money put in and these G1 events have to attract the best in the world. I have no problems with them flying in all sorts, its mainly hype and i also like the french horses coming over plus any spares that peslier or other french jocks pick up along the way :)[/quote'] I don't mind the French and obviously the Irish horses because at group one level it's basically a combined Anglo-French-Irish pattern It's the total unknown quanties that ruin the race for me as a betting proposition.............much like an unraced horse in a maiden or a maiden winner thrust straight into a group 3 Not enough information available I've got no problem with the foreign horses turning up for the interest and spectacle..........it just ruins them as betting races So for the purposes of this thread..............Ascot betting strategy...........one of my strategies is not to bet on any race with a foreign 'star' running in it ! -
Re: Royal Ascot Betting Strategy? For betting purposes the growing 'Internationalisation' of the Festival is a bit of a pain in the bum Animal kingdom runs in the Queen Anne and straight away it becomes a 'no bet' race 'cos I 've got no idea how good he is relative to Farhh...............got no idea if he'd be suited by a straight mile on turf...........how would anybody know ? A few years ago some USA 2yo starting turning up...............they either won by 5 lengths or trailed in at the back but we basically had no way of knowing ............so that ruined those races Aussie sprinters go in the Kings stand...............when they run they normally win but you'd still be backing them blind if you bet on them. But could you back any of the 20 British runners knowing there was an Aussie running ? These things don't bother me much because I'm likely to be watching rather than betting but if i was the kind of punter who wanted a bet on every big race I'd be really miffed with the foreign horses adding unknown factors to our biggest Flat festival I always sigh when i hear that Ascot bigwigs are flying around the world trying to get US, Hong Kong, South African, Japanese, Auusie horses to come over..........NO, leave them where are they, let's have horses that we know running !
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Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK?
Exeter, Perth and Kelso switched from ATR to RUK last year Ascot is moving to RUK from Royal Ascot 2014, ie next year I like the Irish racing, particularly the group races on the Flat and the Jumps grade races...........not so bothered with the run of the mill meetings which seem to involve a succession of 30 runner races.......I wasn't aware that Ascot was switching from ATR to RUK. Are you sure ? I suppose Ascot and Doncaster are ATR's highest profile tracks. Hope they don't lose them. ATR has just lost Hereford and Fokestone by virtue of their closure. Which ones did it lose last year ? -
Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK? I've seen this as well I have RUK and on the whole prefer it to ATR but I hope ATR keep the Irish racing They already lost 3 (?) jumps tracks to RUK last year, they're losing Ascot from next year............if they lose the Irish racing they ain't gonna have much left And al round i think they do a good job so I'd hate to see them reduced to the English low grade meetings and all weather The Irish racing adds some much needed quality and pzzazz
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Re: Handicaps
everything else seems to be equal so i'd go with the one in better current form But my first thought when horses are being placed a few times is that the handicapper has 'got them' and they're unlikely to win until they drop down the weights a bit. Unfortuntaly for them the handicapper often keeps putting them up another pound or two for finishing placed...........so they have to keep improving to keep finishing in the places never mind win What i tend to be looking for is horses that have been getting closer over 2 or 3 runs, have dropped a few pounds in the weights and are now switching to a track that suits them from ones that don't.............eg a horse has won at York and Haydock and has been getting closer in it's last few runs which have been at Beverly and Pontefract, it';s dropped a couple of pounds, it's preferebly down from class 4 to class 5 and now turns up at Ayr I also like to look at races at the extremes...............so 5f or 2 miles, Pontefrect or lingfield............when you get races at either the extremes of trip or the extremes of track type it's easier to suss out which horses won't be suited I suppose you might say in the horse population as a whole all horses would be suited by a middling distance on a middling track on middle going..............as you move out towards the extremes more and more horses drop out of the suitability rangeThanks Trotter, I mist try that strategy.. I think I have been concentrating too much on horses that are in good current form. I need to change my angle of attack. So lets say your looking at a race, and horse A has been placed at the track, placed over the trip and goes on the ground, is in good current form placed last two runs, and is lets say 8/1.. Horse B has been placed at the track, goes over the trip and goes on the ground, but has been out of form, but is 25/1. What horse would you go for and why? -
Re: Handicaps I've tended to specialise in handicaps over the last few years and I'm well up in winnings Like any races I think the key is to pick your races..............i would avoid the 25 runner class 2 'big traditional handicaps' like the Lincoln, Hunt Cup etc - too competitive I'd generally go for the class 4 or class 5 handicaps of which there are several every day The horses that run in these tend not to be group horses on the way up and they're definitelky not going to stud so they stick around for a while, you get a fair chunk of lifetime form to look at The big beauty of handicaps is that you have a dedicated team of professionals (the official handicapers) who are putting the horses into groups of roughly equal ability for you.................you don't have to spend ages trying to work out which is the best horse as you would in group races, maidens etc..........the handicapper has done that for you and said 'this lot are all about the same level' You've then only got to decide on suitability of todays track, trip and going (which is easier if you have lots of back form to look at), current form..............and handicap mark. Because all the horses are of roughly equal ability a few pounds here or there can mean a lot more than they would in a group race where the horses might be of widely differing abilities I've built up a good knowledge of all the tracks over the years and can usually tell pretty quickly by looking at past form which horses wil be suited by todays conditions and which won't That's usually my angle...................but it only works with a group of horses of roughly equal ability
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
I think Poitin is a massive each way price in the next at Lingfield' date=' wasn't beaten too far by Horsted Keynes last November on the all weather surface at Kempton and then was stepped right up in class to The Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket which was won by Talent who won The Oaks on Friday.[/quote'] You got a good run for your money ! I thought it was going to win coming into the straight................. -
Re: Royal Ascot Betting Strategy? Good topic BH You mentionned your post in the other thread and I posted on that thread as well to say that I'd had a rush of blood on the Oaks and Derby and had my maximum bets withouty really having a definite opinion on the races and of course both lost. In other words i bet because i wanted a horse running for me..............and the 'maximum bet' was just absolutely stupid !...........I could have had a horse running for me with a quid on it.......... I think the problem was that I'd been debating the two races with some online friends and i felt honour bound to have a bet because they were having bets and I'd proferred opinions on the horses.......it became a case of 'put up or shut up' I wonder if anyone feels that pressure with the big races.........eg we had long running Oaks and Derby threads on here. Did people feel obliged to bet because they'd nailed their colours to the mast in the weeks leading up to the races ? So I'm definitely going to get a bit more disciplined for Royal Ascot. No matter what rubbish I spout leading up to the Festival I'm not going to be drawn into betting for the sake of it............I imagine I'll leave the 2yo races and the handicaps alone and just concentrate on the group races for the older horses and 3YO Fortunately there are usually plenty of competitions around which invite you to select a horse in every race, so you can have horses running for you even if you haven't betted on them
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 3rd June Chep 5.35 Drummond - win at 10/1 bog bet365 Quite an open race this with the ground turning against a few of them and 3 or 4 front runners who might take each other on Drummond has been dropping down the weights whilst being beaten long distances but he did have some good handicap form last summer off much higher marks and ran his best race for a long time last time out finished 3rd to a couple of todays rivals. I think the change of ground and the likely race tactics might enable him to beat those two today He's also been dropped another couple of pounds (I feel your pain, markmywords, as i did this race last night and Pandorica was my choice after about 2 hours of pouring over lifetime form................I suppose i really ought to give it a miss now it;s a NR, but then I'd feel like I'd wasted two hours of my life...............and when you get to my age those hours are running down.................:cry)
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday 2nd June Sou 3.45 - Harry Hunt - win at 2/1 bog bet365 This looks like a two horse race between the last time out winners There's not much to choose between them I think my selection has spent his career in better races and this could be considered easier than he usually runs in But mainly - my selection appears to be the better jumper as he's never fallen whereas the current fave (Muldoons Picnic) has fallen a couple of times and blundered at the last when he still managed to win last time out
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby
My discipline went out of the window...........I had my maximum bets on the Oaks and the Derby (both lost) Given that I'm normally so careful as to when i bet I'm feeling as though I've let myself down a bit and need to get a grip again and definitely not to go chasing those losses !I dont really understand it either. I mean, if you do really well in group races, top class stuff and back your opinion in this sort of stuff, then fair enough. I wouldnt have a bet just for the sake of it, I never lay any money down on races like the Derby, National, Gold Cup etc -
Re: BBOTD Sat 1st June ps.............my horse is called Festive Cheer, but let's hope it'll be 'cheers' at around 4.10 PM......... :p
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Re: BBOTD Sat 1st June Epsom 4.00 - festive cheers - EW at 25/1 bog bet365 Represents the french derby trial form He's one of O'Briens but ran his trial in france finishing 3rd in a head bob finish in the group 2 Hocquart One of the others in the head bob had won the group 2 Noailles, the other main french Derby trial The third horse involved in the head bob had previously finished 2nd to Ocovango, beaten just over a length. Ocovango subsequently won the group 2 Grefuhle That looks like really solid Derby trial form and puts Festive Cheer about a length or so behind Ocovango who's currently best price 9/1.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ May 2013 Well done BB.................:clap thanks as always to BH......:ok
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Re: BBOTD - Friday 31st May
of course CELESTIAL BAY' date=' don't think CELESTAL HALO would appreciate this short a trip haha![/quote'] I do that as well !...........on another forum i was discussing the chances of Dream Approach winning the Derby.................:p -
Re: BBOTD - Friday 31st May Epsom 2.45 - gregorian - win at 10/3 bog PP Has been placed in 3 group one races and should be able to win at group 3 level, though he hasn't managed it yet Ran a nice race on seasonal debut finishing close up 2nd in a listed race and should be ready to go now - gets the trip, acts on the ground
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 30th May Fancy going against a couple of faves at sandown tonight...... 7.50 Brigadier Gerard stakes, group 3 The ground has gone against Danadana and I'm not sure Main Sequence is going to be effective at 10 furlongs (he also didn't run well on seasonal debut) So take a chance with Miblish who's put up some good performances on the AW recently, big speed figs. He finished behind 3L behind Danadana at Chester but was hampered and had to pull up and start running again. Miblish to win - best odds 11/2 (most firms) 8.20 - Heron Stakes Hannon's montiridge is favourite here but he seemed to struggle in a small field at windsor where he pulled a bit and had nothing left when the race finish started in earnest. It might just be that he was a bit fizzy on seasonal debut and he might settle better now with that run behind him - this is also a bit easier, against his own age group But i fancy Ebn Arab who looked decent last year but apparently has come on a bundle from 2 to 3 according to the trainer. He showed that was indeed the case by sluicing up in a conditions race at Newcastle showing a very nice turn of foot. Ground possibly gone against him but give him a chance to overturn the fave Ebn Arab to win - best odds 3/1 (most firms)
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 30th May
Brighton 5.30 - Who's that chick - win at 3/1 bog betvictor Most lightly raced of these and ran her best race to date last time at sandown in a better race than this, running on nicely Hot apprentice of the moment, Robert Tart takes over the ride Current fave, lady Bayside, looks vulnerable at this trip Yojojo is better on polytrack and the rain has turned the ground against her Bold Ring has never won outside of class 6 Polar Annie has been well beaten on seasonal debut for the last few years -
Re: BBOTD - Thursday 30th May Brighton 5.30 - Who's that chick - win at 3/1 bog betvictor Most lightly raced of these and ran her best race to date last time at sandown in a better race than this, running on nicely Hot apprentice of the moment, Robert Tart takes over the ride Current fave, lady Bayside, looks vulnerable at this trip Yojojo is better on polytrack and the rain has turned the ground against her Bold Ring has never won outside of class 6 Polar Annie has been well beaten on seasonal debut for the last few years
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby i think Festive Cheer is well overpriced at 50/1 (laddies, bet365) He's one of O'Briens but ran his trial in france finishing 3rd in a head bob finish in the group 2 Hocquart One of the others in the head bob had won the group 2 Noailles, the other main french Derby trial The third horse involved in the head bob had previously finished 2nd to Ocovango, beaten just over a length. Ocovango subsequently won the group 2 Grefuhle That looks like really solid Derby trial form and puts Festive Cheer about a length or so behind Ocovango who's currently best price 15/2.
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Just a minor irritation but now that I've subscribed to RP membership I find that i have to constantly re-enter my Settings, sometimes twice a day...............you enter them, it invites you to 'Save Settings'..........then it saves them for a few hours before reverting back to default Why the hell can't it just save them until you change them.................:wall