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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Flat Racing > Saturday 31st of August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing > Saturday 31st of August Been looking at the 5.45 at Bath for a BBotD entry..............but I've concluded that NONE of them can win ! In current odds order New Falcon - won't get home on uphill finish against colts and geldings Yojimbo - with pen he's up 8lbs for a neck win and he looked about right off his old mark Emmuska - doesn't go so well on turf unless it's softish, won't like the firm ground Siouxperhero - very inconsistent, up 5lb for head win Silverware - won claimer latest but well beat in hcaps lately Poor Duke - well beat last 2 runs The two I like best are Siouxperhero and Yojimbo but it's definitely a No Bet race...........

    BBOTD Friday 30th

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    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 30th Sou 7.00 - Picalily - win at 10/3 bog betvictor Pulled up last time but the bit had fallen out and the riders lost control The time before he had scooted up in a handicap here at Southwell on his first start on the surface Won by 9 lengths that day and is still lightly raced with only 7 career starts and could just be better than the usual suspects in these Southwell staying races

    BBOD - Monday 26th August

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    Posted

    Re: BBOD - Monday 26th August Epsom 3.40 - Tha'ir - win at 11/8 bog bet365 Conditions race at Epsom...........looks one of the best races of the day in the absence of any group races on a Bank Holiday Tha'ir is a solid choice but not a slam dunk as it's not obvious that he'll be suited by the track or the small field. But he does travel well, gets the 3yo allowance Saeed bin Suroor has won this race 5 times in the last 7 years so he usually sends one here capable of winning of the others Whippers Boy could be a danger as the other 3yo, he made a belated seasonal reappearance at Glorious Goodwood in a G3..........this is a drop in class but he was well beaten that day and my selection beat him when they met last year Fattsota appears to need further and Questioning looks like he's fallen out of love with the game

    BBOTD Thurs 22nd Aug

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thurs 22nd Aug Bath 2.55 - Hurukan - win at 9/2 bog wm hill I think it might be worth taking on the favourite here - St Ignatius is in good form and a confirmed front runner who should get his own way in this 4 runner field, however I do think this trip might stretch him with a bit of an uphill finish. Even though he might be able to set a slow pace he's still got to get home. Chapter Five beat my selection last time, 2nd and 3rd at Salisbury. I think my horse can reverse placings over this furlong shorter trip on a less demanding track. Chapter Five looks a one paced stayer. His last win was over 15 furlongs (13 furlongs today). My horse has won at 10/12 furlongs

    BBOTD WEDNESDAY 21st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD WEDNESDAY 21st Warw 7.00 - Umneyati - win at Evs bog PP Clicked on the wrong thing and lost my post............ Briefly - won a nursery last time out and appeared to have plenty in hand. Mr Dandy Man should reverse places at the revised weights but he looks a short runner Stellarta - maiden form OK but the horses who finished around her haven't been winning in nurseries

    BBOTD Tuesday 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Tuesday 20th Brighton 3.15 - Pour la Victoire - win at 5/2 bog Ladbrokes Won a similar level race over this CD last time out Same ground, same class, same CD - must have a decent chance of following up ! Went up 2lbs for the win but has a good 7lb claimer on today

    BBOTD Monday 19th

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    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 19th Windsor 8.00 - Saucy Minx - win at 2/1 bog bet365 Drops in class after running in a hot handicap at Glorious Goodwod. Didn't have the pace to challenge and got shuffled back in the pack Ease in grade should help as she'd been in good form around this level prior to Goodwood Drop back to a mile is in her favour as well as she's an iffy stayer beyond a mile One of the reasons I like her here is that she appears to be the only miler amongst the top four in the betting...........a couple look like they need further and Sarangoo is probably better at 7F

    BBOTD - Sunday 18th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Sunday 18th August 2.30 Sou - Baccalaureate - win at 8/11 Skybet The Ponty handicaps are doing my head in so I'm having a look at the summer jumps and the novice chase at Southwell This looks a 2 horse race on paper and my selection was the better hurdler, is in better form with two wins this year, is a course winner over hurdles, has won on good ground and over this distance. With a 7lb claimer who's won on his twice he's getting weight from the inferior horse. The only rival appears to be Engai who is in decent nick and recently won a Maiden Hurdle, but he is rated a stone worse than my horse and although he's won a few times, most of his wins came on the Flat in his native Germany 3 or 4 years ago. He's basically been disappointing over the sticks. He finishes 2nd a lot but doesn't find anything in a finish Biggest worry - my record with odds on shots in BBotD is atrocious

    BBOTD Saturday 17th august

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 17th august Chester 2.35 - Weisse Socken - 6/1 bog betvictor Competitive little nursery here which could be run to suit my horse One of the 5 runners left in is up sharply in class and though has won her last 2 I'm going to overlook her (Lilo Lil) The other 3 have all been front running and presumably one reason they're running here is because the track suits front runners..............so I think they might all fight for the lead and not adopt a gentlemanly 'after you, Claude' if the 3 of them go at it my horse could be well placed to pick up the pieces and as a bonus she is the only C winner in the field and this can be a tricky track for inexperienced horses

    BBOTD Friday 16th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 16th Newm 8.05 - Malakat Jamal - win at 3/1 bog wm hill Nice little fillies handicap to end the evening at HQ My selection goes for the hat-trick after winning last time over this CD. She stays a bit further so the uphill finish here suits her. It was only a narrow win and she went up 2lbs but looked to have something I hand as she swept through from last to first. Tonights 3lb claimer has won twice on her The favourite is Ghanaian - she looks OK but the form of her last win hasn't worked out and she went up 9lbs for it Alice's dancer won this race last year and could be EW value at around the current 10/1. Last years race was ruined with 6 non runners and it probably didn't take as much winning as it should have on paper.

    BBOTD - Thursday 15th August

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    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 15th August Sals 3.25 - Bantam - win at 5/1 bog betvictor Think this might be best left to the 3yo with the big WFA allowance Bit worried about Prospera who was my selection a couple of days ago but was a late non runner. Not sure why she was pulled out of that race but this is a better class and she still has the penalty My selection won a handicap at Windsor (beating Shalwa who reopposes today) then ran 2nd to what might be a group race animal at Thirsk That was probably a better run than her win and she looks to be still improving

    BBOTD Wednesday 14th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 14th 8.15 Kemp - Legend rising - win at 4/5 bog wm hill Only 3 runners here and the hannon-hughes favourite looks a good thing at just odds on He's a colt up against 2 fillies............the 2 fillies have already run in 4 nurseries between them and been beat a total of around 30 lengths which suggests that neither of them are well treated My selection runs in his first nursery having been well beaten in the Norfolk at Royal ascot, but prior to that had won a maiden and a novice race The 'Post' are sidestepping him because his sire has only had 1 winner from 59 runners on the polytrack ..............That doesn't put me off because Hannon knows polytrack as well as anyone and must think the horse will act OK on it............

    BBOTD Monday 12th

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    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 12th

    Thirsk 8.30 - Prospera - win at 11/8 bog boylesports
    How annoying..............flick over to watch the race and find that it's a non runner Must have been pulled out late.............probably whilst I was still studying the race.........:@

    BBOTD Monday 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 12th Thirsk 8.30 - Prospera - win at 11/8 bog boylesports Going for the hat trick after seemingly responding very well to the blinkers Won over this trip last time by 4 lengths and has a 7lb claimer up tonight to negate the 6lb penalty The claimer has won 4 races in the last fortnight so looks well in with the claim

    Flat Racing Sunday 11th August

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    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing Sunday 11th August 2.45 Deauville - Dawn Approach - win at 5/2 Wm Hill Another sunday, another group one race in France I've had the last 2 winners.............here's 3rd time lucky ! I'm taking Dawn Approach to bounce back from his narrow defeat at Goodwood The French and German milers don't seem a great bunch this year, unlike their middle distance horses and I reckon Dawn Approach and Toronado are the top two milers in Europe Bolger seems to instill toughness into his top horses and Dawn Approach seem no worse for apparently running every couple of weeks - he also doesn't seem to have any problem travelling There's obviously a few here making up the numbers but there are some other genuine group one horses............. Intello - probably the best 3yo in Europe but he's a middle distance horse and I can't see him beating Dawn Approach at a mile Moonlight Cloud - fantastic mare but more of a sprinter, Has won a G1 at a mile but it was only a 4 runner affair and she beat Farrh by about a neck...........is it fair to say he's good but no top notch. Elusive Kate - best older miler amongst the fillies but she usually comes up short against colts Declaration of war - well held by dawn Approach on Goodwood running and might be better at 10 furlongs Aljamaheer - been placed a couple of times in G1 races but this looks a bit too hot for him Olympic Glory - yet to prove he stays a mile and best form on soft ground Peace at last - surprise german Gns winner but beaten 4 times this season suggests he's not really G1 class If Dawn Approach has held his form I think he can see these off ! If he underperforms I'd be tempted by Declaration of War EW at the current 14/1 Another thing to bear in mind is that in France they look to overturn most of my winners in the Stewards Room Ooh la la..............:wall

    BBOTD Saturday 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 10th 7.05 Ayr - Woodacre - win at 7/2 bog betvictor There's a few misgivings about all these runners Most of them appear to need soft ground - maybe they were all declared in the expectation of rain but they've had a nice sunny day and the ground is good My selection won a bumper on g/f and ran well on good last time That was his handicap debut and he finished 3rd in a better race than this. Drops in class today Think he has at least as good a chance as the favourite and I'll be surprised if he finished behind Arr Kid..............in fact I'll be surprised if my horse isn't favourite by the 'off' time.

    Horse Ratings

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    Posted

    Re: Horse Ratings Joe..........I think the best thing you can do is to get yourself to the racing post site and start looking at racecards use the 'customise racecards' menu to check 'race conditions' As you study race conditions you'll get to understand how weights are allotted for each type of race things to bear in mind............ Official Ratings (OR) only determine weight in handicap races The rating..........eg 80, 72, 54...........do NOT relate to any specific weight They are relative to each other............so a 80 rated horse will carry 8 lbs more than a 72 rated horse if they run in a handicap race Depending on the class of the race the absolute weights will vary............it is the relative weights of one horse to another horse that is important So............if you have a handicap race for horses rated 0-80 and the 80 rated horse is running he will have top weight because no horse rated over 80 can run in the race. Let's say the top weight for that race is 9-10............he'll carry 9-10 and the 72 rated horse will carry 9-2............the relative difference is the 8lbs difference in their OR In another handicap race open to horses rated 0-90 the top rate rated horse entered might be rated 87..............he will carry top weight which might be 9-8 for this race. The horse rated 80 will carry 7 less or 9-1 and the horse rated 72 will carry 8 less than him, ie 8-7 So..............it's the weights relative to each other that are determined by their ratings Now let's say that the 72 horse had won that first race and gone up 5 lbs in the ratings (often phrased as 'gone up in the weights'). He is now a 77 horse and in the 2nd race he would be carrying 3lbs less than the 80 horse rather than 8lbs as he did before winning Now rated 77 he would carry 8-12 in the 2nd race, ie 5lbs more than he would if his rating had stayed the same Imagine that for one week the handicapper decided not to change the OR of any horse in the country except for our 72 horse that he put up to 77 Now you can see that relative to every other horse in the country our horse has gone up 5lbs regardless of what actual weight he is carrying in any particular race.............he is now going to be carrying 5lbs more relative to the other horses than he would have done before his rating was raised to 77 from 72 Of course in practise some horses go up, some go down and some stay the same every week One other thing that could confuse.............you might see that younger horses get a weight allowance in some handicaps, so for example a 3yo might 'get' 6lbs from older horses.............this is effectively subtracted from his OR for that specific race.........so a 3yo rated 2lbs lower than a 4yo might carry 8lbs less (the 2lbs difference in OR pus the 6lbs allowance for younger horses') The race conditions will specify what these allowances are

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