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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    BBOTD Monday 30th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 30th September 2.40 Ham - Milly's Secret - win at 9/2 bog bet365 This doesn't look a hard race to win and my selection has some nursery form which entitles her to land this - she was beaten a head off 3lbs higher on her nursery debut Have to forgive a poor run LTO when she stumbled at the start. What I particularly like is that her best 2 runs have been at Ponty and this is the first time since then that she's had a track with an uphill finish. She looks a bit one paced so the uphill finish should suit her Gym Shoes looks the main danger dropping in class but he's twice not appeared to get 6 furlongs despite running as though he needs further when running on at 5 furlongs Hopefully my girl will outstay him up the hill

    BBOTD Sunday 29th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sunday 29th September 3.55 Eps - Beedee - EW at 11/1 bog betvictor It often pays to concentrate on the 3yo in these late season middle distance handicaps. Not only do they get a useful age allowance but they can be less exposed over the distance and open to improvement as they step up in trip after their 2yo careers My selections steps up from a mile for the first time and has been running on in his last few races. Ran his best race since last year when 2nd to a Stoute improving type LTO. pair clear, 3rd won since He's ran well here at Epsom before so no fears on the track suitability

    BBOTD Saturday 28th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 28th September Newm 2.35 - Vorda - win at 2/1 bog wm hill Cheveley Park - G1 for 2yo fillies over 6F You won't go far wrong backing French raiders in UK group races...........now that France is the centre of top quality European racing they come over here for easy pickings in group races My selection finished 2nd in the G1 Morny behind the monstrous colt No Nay Never. The 3rd, Rizeena, has since won a G1 to give the form a top notch look. Prior to the Morny my filly was unbeaten progressing through maiden, listed and G2 wins. She's never been beaten by a filly ! Todays main market rival is Kiyoshi. She was beaten by Rizeena LTO and my filly has the beating of her on that line. She may well improve for dropping a furlong but she does have a tendency to wander all over the place in the finish and that could cost her

    BBOTD Friday 27th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 27th September Wolv 7.40 - Wellesbourne - EW at 12/1 bog bet365 I've spent a fair bit of time looking at 2yo maiden races this year for a change............not really as a betting proposition but just trying to find a few angles One of the angles I've looked at is horses who's sales price increased markedly from yearling to 2yo This goldolphin horse was bought for 65K as a yearling and for 90K earlier this year The idea is that they must be progressing well to fetch more money Top stable, weak race - the favourite looks OK but nothing else stands out. Must be a chance of this newcomer placing at least

    BBOTD - Thursday 26th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 26th September 8.45 Wlv - El Massivo - win at 4/1 bog bet365 Drops in grade today and whilst form figures don't inspire confidence the last couple of runs have been OK Finished 6th a couple of runs ago at Yarmouth in a better race Finished 7th last time at Kempton in a similar race to this but a couple of the ones ahead of him have come out and won since and his speed fig was OK in the context of tonight. He tried for a run up the inside at the cutaway but got blocked and gave up. He probably just haven't the pace to go through and might be suited by the slower surface at Wolves slowing the others down.

    BBOTD - Wednesday 25th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 25th September Redcar 3.15 - Jo'burg - win at 10/3 bog wm hill A couple of these runners are dropping into selling company after running respectably in decent handicaps this season and not surprisingly they head the market My horse is currently 2nd fave but he is officially 1 lb better than the fave and is a dual CD winner which swings it in his favour - plus the bigger odds !

    BBOTD - Tuesday 24th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Tuesday 24th September Ling 3.00 - Son of Feyan - EW at 100/1 with Skybet Taking a punt on a big priced one here He's had two runs in maidens. First time up ran green and finished 6th beaten 4 lengths Second time up he appeared to put in a worse run and finished last of 9 beaten 15 lengths. Again he ran green but kept on steadily at the finish. The form of that second run looks pretty hot - the winner has won twice since, the 3rd has won twice since, the 4th, 6th and 7th all won next time out Has had a good break of 6 weeks and comes back to a furlong longer race which should suit Not many 100 to 1 shots stand much of a chance and he'll probably be well beaten but I think it's worth a punt on the form of his last maiden race.

    handicapping

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: handicapping From the BHA site....... "During the height of the Flat season there tends to be nine handicappers working on the Flat and three on the Jumps, whilst in the winter three more Handicappers will usually transfer across from Flat to Jumping. The example of the Handicappers’ weekly group of horses shown below is taken from the height of each season, although this is merely an example and the responsibilities will often change on a weekly basis, depending on a number of factors. Flat Chris Nash 5f, 6f (Class 4) Stewart Copeland 6f (Class 1-3, 5-7) Mark Olley 7f Dominic Gardiner-Hill 8f (1-4), 9f Graeme Smith 8f (5-7) Greg Pearson 10f-11f (4-7) Phil Smith 10f-12f (1-3) Stephen Hindle 12f (4-7), 13f+ Matthew Tester All 2yo races Jumping David Dickinson 2m to 2m 1½f Hurdles Chris Nash 2m 2f to 2m 4f Hurdles Martin Greenwood 2m 4½f+ Hurdles John de Moraville 2m to 2m 4f Chases Mark Olley 2m 4½f to 2m 7½f Chases Phil Smith 3m+ Chases"

    BBOTD Monday 23rd September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 23rd September Kemp 5.20 - Angelic Upstart - ew at 14/1 bog betvictor Has been in decent form on turf since coming back from a break having won one and been placed twice from his 3 runs His record on the AW is better than on turf so the return to Kempton might eke out a bit more on top of his already decent form CD winner - should be suited by todays race as there's a few front runners and he likes a decent pace to run behind, travels well

    BBotD Sun 22nd September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBotD Sun 22nd September Cologne 3.50 - Earl of Tinsdal - win at 7/2 PP Group one action over 12F Earl of Tinsdal is a dual group one winner at 12F on soft ground, including over this CD He's not far behind the crack German middle distance horses of the past couple of years - Danedream, Pastorius, Novallist...........there doesn't appear to be anything in the race of that class today He's not had his ideal conditions for a while.........he's been running over 10F, 16F, 20F at Ascot, presumably trying to avoid those crack german horses Back to his optimum trip today and gets his soft ground for the first time since his last win Front runner.........should be suited by this small field and has the stamina to keep going if he sets a decent pace Meandre is the big danger...........he's a class act but wouldn't necessarily be suited by softish ground. if it dries up he might well justify favouritism

    BBOTD Saturday 21st September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September Ayr 1.30 Light Weight - win at 9/2 bog PP Won his maiden last time by 2 lengths on g/s, extra furlong should help and goes on the ground Still ran green wen winning so there should be more to come Todays favourite, Braidley, looks OK but has gone up 10lbs for winning last time and had more runs than my selection so the handicapper has more evidence to assess him I'm hoping my orse is better than the mark he has having only run twice.

    BBOTD Friday 20th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 20th September 3.05 Newbury - French Navy - win at 5/4 bog betvictor Good horse this............won more than half of his career starts, including 4 races of higher grade than today Goes well fresh and comes back from a 3 month break, trip, ground etc all fine for him He's the best horse in the race and whilst not strictly best in at today's weights, you'd have to think that some of his opponents are not worth their official ratings as they find it difficult to win

    BBOTD Wednesday 18th sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 18th sept

    Y4.55 Free Zone e/w 16/1 William Hill The ground and the trip are this horses optimum conditions, the last time the horse encountered this was when beaten a neck by Doctor Hay in a listed race off 105. Racing off 10lb lower today and I much prefer Paul Hanagan in the saddle to the jockeys that have been on board for most of its runs so that's another positive for me. There was a touch of money for it last night and I think the 16's is still too big.
    well done boulder !..............:D third big priced winner this month ?...............terrific stuff...............:D

    best price bookmakers

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: best price bookmakers Stan James used to do BOG............then they discontinued it Now they've brought it back One can only hope that their number crunchers worked out how much business they were losing when they stopped offering it On the other hand when you look at Odds Comparisons it's quite often the non-BOG firms that have the biggest price so you have to weight up whether to take the bigger price now or whether you think the price of your selection might drift Although I've had a winner today in BBotD which drifted a lot in % terms my feeling is that 95% or even more of horses I select well before racing are going to shorten in price..............mainly because all the prices seem to shorten as the race approaches............but also because I'm trying to pick good value and other people have the same information as me and I expect a lot of them will pick the same horse for the same reasons

    BBOTD Wednesday 18th sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 18th sept Sand 3.55 - Penitent - win at 13/8 bog bet365 Listed race over a mile Might be worth taking on the hot favourite, Wentworth - he has good handicap form but steps into Listed company now and you're never sure how they wil cope with the smaller field and more tactical pace than you find in the big handicaps. Also this will be his first run on soft ground and he's lost both times he's gone right-handed and both times he's run on a track with an uphill finish So............enough reason to take him on Penitent drops into Listed company for the first time in 13 runs and will find this a lot easier than running in the group races he usually contests. Relishes soft ground and has won both times he's visited Sandown

    BBOTD Tuesday 17th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th September yarm 5.00 - master of war - win at 10/11 bog bet365 Was a decent 2yo last season - won at listed level and finished 2nd in two group two races Ran a nice race on his belated seasonal debut a few weeks ago, beaten a length in a listed race at Newmarket Today represents a drop in class and he might come on a bit for the run after a fairly long lay off Both his man rivals ae older horses who haven't won for a couple of years and might be on a downwatd path now, although both stil capable of decent form, both of them are hold up horses and my chap will probably make the running and get first run on them

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