Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
New Bookie Offer - Highbet - Bet £10 GET £25 (no wagering on winnings)

Trotter

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    37

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Trotter

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    From a few years ago, not sure if it’s been updated anywhere else, but this makes interesting read. It backs up MClarkes views on CD winners. Jiggle your points system around to suit. Also mentions moving away from sprints. I’m never that confident of a selection in a sprint as you don’t always get the time to come back from a poor break, being hampered etc. Prefer longer distance on the flats .

    https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/analysing-course-and-distance-winners/

    I mentioned above that I used to think up stats to keep when I was concentrating on the all weather and one of them was CD winners at Southwell. Being the only Fibresand track I assumed that CD winners would be pretty good for betting on !

    So I kept stats of how many runners at each meeting were C winners, CD winners or neither...... and of the number of winners in each of those categories

    And I basically found that it made little difference to the winner  % whether the horse had won over C or CD before

    I didn't keep P/L records but it would be logical to think that CD winners at Southwell are overbet

    Trouble is that it's difficult to avoid that CD after horse's name if you have an 8 runner handicap and one of them has won over CD and seven haven't !........ it's always tempting to back horses to do again what they've done before

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    I think you have it spot on trotter to post selections on the racing thread.  It seems to me that this Fineform method is just a POINTS based system as opposed to a horse rating method as I have come to know it among the all too many ratings systems that seem to be plastered everywhere.  You are obviously tweaking it to allow for class of race etc. which is entirely sensible.  I am just wondering if you may add to your armoury taking into account the the top 3 Timeform selections as displayed on the ATR website, or at least excluding horses that do not have at least a 3 star rating when one clicks on the "racecard"  Timeform tab.  It seems to me that this may combine the points system with PROPER race ratings.  Just a thought.

     

    That's a possibility but instinctively I'm not keen

    I think if you're using any kind of system or ratings (preferably of course your own ratings!) the idea is to have selections which are automatic depending on the criteria and are not connected to the market or expert opinion, Basically you want to throw up horses that not every one else is considering. So I'm not keen on incorporating website or newspaper tipsters

    For the same reason when people do trends I'm not keen on a trend that says something like '12/20 winners were in the first 3 in the market'

    I think the purpose of systems/trends is to pick horses that should be in the first 3 but aren't ..... 

    Racing Chat - Sunday July 26th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    As the great Nick Mordin would say all systems have a shelf life, the more they are latched on to the more the prices contract, they soon become non profit.

    Very true ..... 

    I suppose the only point is though that nowadays with the internet there are hundreds of systems and trends and tips readily available out there that they cancel each other out ....... every horse is going to be the subject of a trend, system or tip

    Anyway, welcome to the forum ! .......... ?

    I do miss the old Mordin website with the weekly reviews of racing in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany,. Italy ......... I used to study that religiously and make notes on the horses for future reference.

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I've posted up some selections on today's racing thread based on the Fineform system with some tweaks to include Class and Going .

    A few top rated ones got eliminated for class or going and I stuck to handicaps so that limited the number of selections

    Let's see how they get on

    ps ....... I don't think we want to start posting selections on this thread otherwise it'll just end up duplicating the daily threads

     

    One problem I did find was that my 'class criteria' seemed a bit too strict as there was at least one top rated horse which had won impressively in a grade lower but looked to be on the upgrade. I basically used 'had to won in this class or placed in a higher class'

    I'd like to amend this to take account of horses that have won in the grade below but are lightly raced (maybe 10 or fewer career runs)

    Racing Chat - Sunday July 26th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Trotter

    Bit of chatter yesterday in the General Racing Chat thread about the old Fineform System and how it might be teaked to negate the obvious difficulties with it

    Basically the system involves awarding points based on last two form figures, C, D and CD wins, The glaring omissions being that it takes no account of Class or Going

    So I've loked at todays handicaps at York and Ascot and noted races with a clear top rated horse (no joint tops) and then looked to see if they should act on the going and have either won in todays Class or placed in a higher class

    These are the selections .......(prices bet365)

    Ascot

    1.20 - Seen The Lyte 5/1
    4.15 - Tiger Crsade 13/8
    4.50 - Strait of Hormuz 9/2

    York

    2.10 - Right Action 14/1
    3.55 - Mister Lambreys 3/1
    4.30 - Global Spirit 13/2

    Let's see how they get on !

    One problem I encounted was my Class twaek because I feel you should include lightly raced horses that have won in the class below but might be on the upgrade. Might have to re-formulate this 

    The consideration about Going is a bit subjective because you're using judgement as to whether the horse should act on it if the evidence is sparse but there we go. It's obviously not ideal to have subjective criteria in a system ........ 

    If the above produces some winners I might stick with this for a few days, maybe with tweaks !


     

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I have looked at the Fineform System ..... it's quite handy if you just want to pick selections in lots of races. I think I posted daily selections on here at one time based on the points system

    But as Chris said earlier the obvious problem is that it takes no account of class and going

    You could get the absurdity of a horse that had previously won a 12 furlong seller at Ascot and class 6 handicap at Brighton on it's last two runs and would be top pick for today's King George at 1000/1

    So maybe a couple of refinements .......

    Do the ratings and get your top rated selections then only pick them if they have won in today's class or placed in a higher class and the going is not a negative for them

    You could also be more selective as to which races you include ....... maybe just handicaps and pattern races and leave out races where you have lots of runners with no or little form in the book

    any other ideas for adding a bit of nuance to the basic points system ?

     

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday July 25th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    Fair enough . Why the low numbers overall? Really cannot see the point in 3-4 horse races. 

    There's probably other races in Ireland, France and the UK that the middle distance group horses are being aimed at with the season condensed

    But in general I think the King George is declining in importance. 

    Certainly since I started watching in the 80s when it was the biggest race in the calendar except for the Derby and usually the Derby winner would run and take on the previous years middle distance champions

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    A question that often pops up is whether it is better to specialise in a subset of racing ....... based on race type, class, distance, age group or something else

    Obviously with so much racing it is impossible to keep a handle on everything ..... and impossible to look at every race every day unless you just give them the briefest of glimpses

    Probably my most successful period of betting and in the various competitions was a few years ago when I mainly stuck to the All Weather. But I think that was because I was spending a lot of time on it ........ typically I would spend all night looking at the following day's races. Someone once said 'the harder I work the luckier I get' ! I was keeping all sorts of notes, stats, doing speed ratings, keeping my own trainer notes etc. I think if you're putting a lot of work in I think it is worth specialising just to cut down the number of races you're looking at. I think the All Weather is particularly suited to this because the main season is over the winter when you don't need to worry about horses running outside of the box that you've drawn because there's no other flat racing for them to run in

    At the moment I'm having a go at long distance races ..... ideally 3 mile plus hurdles and 14 furlongs plus on the flat

    Quite interesting because in any race you'll usually find a fair proportion of the runners who haven't won over or not got much form at all the extended trip so it's a different puzzle ...... will the horse get the trip or more realistically 'will it be effective over the trip'?  All horses would probably stay 3 miles if they went slowly enough ........ same as me, I can walk 3 miles but I can't run 3 miles. 

    And then apart from the trip you've got to assess all the usual factors of class, going, track, trainer etc

    I'm a bit of a flitter .... I flitter from one thing to another sometimes in as little as a few days so not sure how long I'll be concentrating on stayers but if I notice anything worth commenting on I'll post further with some examples

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Investec have pulled out of their sponsorship of The Derby after 10 years

    The current deal was due to run until 2016 but Epsom and Investec have agreed to cancel it as the Company wishes to seek new marketing opportunities

    So ....... the hunt is on for a new sponsor for the 'world's most famous race'

    Any suggestions ?

    I'd like to see Derby County and Nottingham Forest jointly sponsor the race and call it The Derby Derby Derby

    ........ and move it to Abu Dhabi

    just for a laugh ..... 

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

    Thanks for your time and explanations be interesting following the development. I’m not convinced about him although I want to see him over 6f sometime, always being entered in 7f at the moment.

    I see he's entered at Wolves on Sunday in an all-aged handicap ....... he'll get a 7lb allowance relative to the older horses

    But he is number 38 in the entries and only 12 can run so he'll need a lot of them to pull out if he's to get in the race

    I'll watch with interest !

    One thing I did notice was that in his handicap runs he's always weakened at the end of the race .. maybe he's still a bit immature and will improve naturally as he grows into himself and strengthens up? 

    His 3 handicaps have seen him beaten 22L, 10L, 7L so he is getting closer ! ....... 

     

     

×
×
  • Create New...