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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Racing Chat - Sunday July 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    French Derby today at Chantilly

    Victor Ludorum is the clear favourite after winning the French 2000 Gns but I'm going to pick one that is just about an EW price

    J-C Rouget has won 3 of the last 4 'Jockey-Clubs' so he knows what it takes and he has an unbeaten, lightly raced one in today who jumps up big time in class. He's run 3 times, twice in the provinces and in a small conditions race at St Cloud. 

    The Rouget yard has hit form with 9 winners from 15 runners in the last two weeks

    I guess if you back him you're basically backing the trainer to know what he's got with an unproven horse at this level

    Chantilly 2.10 - Port Guillaume - EW at 10/1 bet365

    Racing Chat - Saturday July 4th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, MrJol said:

    I was umming and ahing whether to pick Mohican Heights (16/1) but I sided with Max Vega (40/1) purely because it's been on my ATR Tracker since last year. 

    A P O' Brien has a knack of getting big price placers and the one I'd back is Serpentine (22/1)

     

    These three in a combination forecast would be a fun bet :D

     

    Haha!

    well done, terrific ......... ?

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday July 4th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I like the look of Mohican Heights  as an EW shot in the Derby. Finished 3rd in the 'King Edward' at Ascot on seasonal debut, held up at the back and running on in the last couple of furlongs. 

    The winner was Pyledriver who re-opposes today but had the advantage of a recent run at Ascot

    My selection would appear to have bundles of stamina in his pedigree so a strongly run race would suit, which the Derby usually is. His sire won the Derby and Irish Derby, his Damsire won the Derby ....... impeccable breeding !

    I can see my horse eating up the ground in the home straight !

    Epsom 4.55 - Mohican Heights - EW at 16/1 bog bet365

    (his best price has come down from 20/1 whilst I've been typing!)

    Racing Chat - Thursday July 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This must be the worst day's racing since the resumption !

    Going through the cards last night I couldn't find any race to bother spend time on

    Which raises the question ...... should it really matter what the level of the race is ?

    I mean there's a winner of every race and if you're happy with your methods of selection should they be just as valid for a class 6 handicap as for the Derby ?

     

    Racing Chat - Wednesday July 1st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Trotter

    Had a first peak at the two year old races

    I like two year olds having their second outing. preferably dropping down from the top tracks to easier races

    But obviously this is season is not following normal patters !

    Second time out two year olds ........

    12.15 Muss - Amayzing Eyes 4/1
    1.20 Muss - Infant Hercules 5/4
    4.40 Kemp - Basilicata 7/4

    prices bet365

     

    Racing Chat - Tuesday June 30th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    @Trotter Well done for sharing this with us all and making a profit as well.

    Do you intend to continue with this going forward? 

    I just wonder if this detracts from your normal routine of making selections as you very helpfully outlined to stevelc

     

    I'll give it a break for now

    I think of this as an early season system as it gets a bit complicated when the 3 year olds start running in all aged handicaps with weight allowances

    I might come back to it when the three year olds start running in staying handicaps later in the year. They get a big weight allowance and can be unexposed over staying trips having been running, and been handicapped, on their form over shorter.

     

    Racing Chat - Tuesday June 30th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 6/29/2020 at 7:22 PM, Trotter said:

    All aged handicap selections for Tuesday ..... last day of the trial & lots of races with 4 meetings

    I'll have a think about something else for next month

    Donc

    4.30 - Champagne Terri 4/1 and Encryption 14/1 (NON RUNNER)

    Muss

    2.45 - The Defiant 4/1 and Gowanbuster 5/1 (WON)
    4.15 - Lady Scatterley 3/1 and Vampish 11/4
    5.15 - Tarnhelm 7/2

    Leic

    6.15 - Deconso 7/1 and Freedom and Wheat 4/1
    7.45 - Telekinetic 11/2 and Arlecchinos Arc 10/1
    8.15 - Becky Sharp 11/2 and Homing Star 14/1 (NON RUNNER)

    Chep

    8.30 - Cafe Sydney 7/2 and Lauberhorn Rocket 7/1
    9.00 - Master Grey 16/1

    prices bet365 bog

     

    2 stakes back on non runners 

    Today staked 14.00, returns 6.00 , P/L -8.00

    End of trial totals  - Staked 151.00, P/L + 7.86

    Obviously not a huge return but it's ok to finish in profit after 151 selections

    A few thoughts

    the system ...... all aged handicaps, discard all horses two or more years older than the youngest horse in the race (effectively at this time of this unusual season you're sticking to 4 and 5 year olds) Cross out any horse that hasn't won over the trip. On tracks with a known draw bias eliminate any horse with a bad draw

    If you're left with one or two horses they're your selections

    If you have multiple runners left skip it and move on to the next race

    The logic is that you're looking for the younger horses who might be improving merely by maturing and thus have more chance of being ahead of the handicapper than the older more exposed ones. I include Distance winners in pretty much any system I think of because it removes one of the unknowns ...... is the horse effective over this trip. Draw bias speaks for itself. And you're lookig for races where there's only one or two of these horses in the field.

    This is an unusual season and in a normal season I would like to stick to 4 year old plus races which diminish in number as the season goes on and the 3 year olds enter the all aged handicaps, starting with the sprinters and moving up the distances. 

    In a normal year this would be a system for the season up to around Royal Ascot

    Then go again late season for the staying races when 3 year olds enter them

     

    Racing Chat - Monday June 29th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 6/28/2020 at 7:34 PM, Trotter said:

    Monday's all aged handicap selections

    Yarm

    1.30 - Blessed To Empress 10/3 and Pentland Lad 10/1 (WON 12/1)
    3.30 - Kennocha 11/4 and Spanish Mane 6/1 (WON)

    Wind

    2.20 - Delegate The Lady 5/2 (WON 11/4)
    5.20 - Severence 11/2

    Thirsk

    7.00 - Aghast 5/1
    9.00 - Smart Lass 2/1 and Compatriot 20/1

    prices bet365 bog

    decent day!

    today - stakes 9.00, return 23.75, P/L + 14.75

    running totals - stakes 137.00, P/L + 15.86

    (I've already posted tomorrow's final selections and there are 16 runners so I reckon I need one winner or a non runner to make sure I end the trial in profit!)

    Racing Chat - Tuesday June 30th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All aged handicap selections for Tuesday ..... last day of the trial & lots of races with 4 meetings

    I'll have a think about something else for next month

    Donc

    4.30 - Champagne Terri 4/1 and Encryption 14/1

    Muss

    2.45 - The Defiant 4/1 and Gowanbuster 5/1
    4.15 - Lady Scatterley 3/1 and Vampish 11/4
    5.15 - Tarnhelm 7/2

    Leic

    6.15 - Deconso 7/1 and Freedom and Wheat 4/1
    7.45 - Telekinetic 11/2 and Arlecchinos Arc 10/1
    8.15 - Becky Sharp 11/2 and Homing Star 14/1

    Chep

    8.30 - Cafe Sydney 7/2 and Lauberhorn Rocket 7/1
    9.00 - Master Grey 16/1

    prices bet365 bog

     

    Racing Chat - Sunday June 28th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, stevelc said:

    Morning. I've decided to give two sources ago, Racing Post as you suggested Trotter and I found a service called Horse Race Ratings who have a free service until Sept. Hopefully I can combine the two services and come up with my picks. Will report back. Is it ok to update on here with my progress?

    There's a new thread every day for that day's racing ....... just post your selections the day's daily thread !

    and any more specific questions that you want to ask as you go along. 

    Good luck !

    Racing Chat - Sunday June 28th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, stevelc said:

    Hi All.

    I've been following various tipsters over the last year or so and have finally come to the conclusion that I need to do my own research. Expensive lesson but at least I'm learning! 

    I've been Googling horse race speed ratings / form trackers etc and just wondered what sources other people use before wasting more cash on poor services. I've found a few different services but not sure where to start. 

    Any pointers would be gratefully received.

    I reckon all the information you need is on the Racing Post site which has a complete record of every race that each horse has run in

    Personally I don't spend any money on any services or tipsters or publications .... the information is there for you to read and make up your own mind

    Why not give it a go! .......... you'll get a lot more enjoyment out of picking a winner yourself than backing something that a tipster or ratings service gives you. 

    Pick a race with not too many runners so it won't take forever to study, preferably a handicap so the horses have run a few times and have some form in the book

    Look at each horse in turn and ask yourself .......... is it suited by todays distance, the going, the course, the class of the race. Has it been thereabouts in his last couple of runs. 

    Over a longer time try to get to grip with what the handicap or official ratings mean

    Over a longer period try to read up on the race courses, their differences, which ones are similar to each other

    Read the race previews on as many sites as you can ..... Post,. Sporting Life, At The Races etc ..... even if you don't follow their tips you can pick useful information as to the kind of things you might look for, they'll often give reasons as to why they don't fancy a horse for today's race. Eliminating horses you don't think will win is a good way to approach a race.

    Put a lot of work in, read up, watch lots of racing, ......... and enjoy the sport whether you win or lose!

    It's not a quick process so keep learning as you go along

    Racing Chat - Sunday June 28th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Trotter said:

    Sunday's all aged handicap selections

    Ham

    2.20 My Ukelele 8/1 and Al Ozzdi 5/1
    3.30 Sarvi 8/1

    Wind

    4.40 Buriram 11/2

    Newm

    5.00 Pianisimo 11/1 and Charlie D 3/1 (WON 18/5)

    prices bet365 bog

    One winner at the fairly rare odds of 18/5

    today - stakes 6.00, return 4.60, P/L -1.40

    running totals - Stakes 128.00, P/L +1.11

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