cluelessG
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Posts posted by cluelessG
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I'm placing a small bet on Man City to win by 2 goals or 3 goals (odds 4.33 and 4.75 at bet365). I don't trust the Fulham defence and I don't think they can stop City from scoring 2-3 goals. In the meantime I hope that City will take the match seriously and allow Fulham to score 1 goal at the most. Starting with Kompany and Stones in defence is a good sign for me. Small stakes, just for fun.
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I was looking at a similar bet - both Chelsea and Derby to score at odds around evens. For some reason Chelsea have conceded more goals at home than away and they will likely rest some regular starters tonight. Derby certainly look capable to score.
And I will wait for the lineups (and subs) to be announced before i place any further bets tonight.
- Joe Pesci and StevieDay1983
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RB Leipzig - Celtic - home win and both teams to score
Leipzig have left some of their starts on the bench (e.g. Poulsen, Werner) so the may have underestimated Celtic. Leipzig had a terrible first half against Salzburg so I am hoping they will allow Celtic to score. Then in the second half I expect them to turn the match around and get a 2:1 or 3:1 win.
Odds 2.85 with pinnacle and around 2.65 with bet365.
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Qarabag - Vorskla Under 2.5 goals
Qarabag have failed to score in their two EL group matches so far. They are generally performing much better at home that away... but they are not prolific goal-scorers.
Vorskla were destroyed at Arsenal but were leading 1:0 at home against Sporting until the 90-th minute when they managed to concede 2 goals and lost the match.
I believe these two teams are at a similar level so I am expecting a tight match without too many goal-scoring opportunities.
I am placing a small bet on under 2.5 goals, odds around 1.6
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I don't know much about the teams at this level of English football, but I've taken Fylde DNB against Chesterfield - mostly based on Fylde's impressive home record. Odds for home win is 2.25 at pinnacle (2.2 at bet365) which looks great to me, but I had to cover the draw.
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I've placed a medium bet on Kosovo NOT to keep a clean sheet at the Faroe Islands (i.e. Faroe Island to score). Odds at bet365 is 1.8 which looks like value to me since the home team has scored in 4 of their last 6 home matches. And these matches were against a similar-level opposition - Andorra, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Faroes failed to score against Azerbaijan 3 days ago but they had a few chances (even hit the post) and they must be extra motivated to score today. They are always looking for opportunities to shoot from a long range or headers in the penalty box. They are under no pressure to win so they could either try to score or go for a 0-0 draw. Kosovo managed to keep a clean sheet in Azerbaijan in September (and in Albania in May), it's time for them to concede a goal away from home.
- yossa6133 and StevieDay1983
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2 minutes ago, allthethings said:
In the early matches I'm on Rosenborg-RB Leipzig X @ 4.00. I will be on RB Salzburg-Celtic X @ ridiculously good odds of 4.35 only if money starts to flow in to Celtic. As things stand now (6.01), they fall out of my system.
I have a feeling that money is flowing the other way - to Salzburg. If Celtic try to attack and leave spaces at the back - they might be in for a humiliating loss. Salzburg looked very lively at under-strength Leipzig two weeks ago.
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Anderlecht - Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo had a great first match in their EL group and their domestic form is pretty good too. Anderlecht somehow managed to lose at Spartak Trnava, despite having a few decent chances. The Belgians are sitting 3rd in their domestic league, a few points behind Brugge and Genk already, having scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches.
I've taken AH +0 on Dinamo Zagreb, I believe they are generally at the same level as Anderlecht and the mini-crisis at Anderlecht may cancel the advantage of playing at home (and they might be pressure for the home side to win to keep chances of progressing from the EL group). Odds 2.35 at pinnacle, 2.3 at bet365.
- hristofor and StevieDay1983
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36 minutes ago, laprikon said:
ok let s see the results
In other news, Kolasinac has miraculously jumped from your injury list to a place in the starting lineup today ;-)
Good luck with your bet - apart from Ramsey and Aubameyang, you did a good job on the predicted starting lineup!
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20 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Hoffenheim vs Manchester City
Hoffenheim's form in Europe is, quite frankly, awful. They have won just 1 of their previous 9 matches in European competition. That solitary victory coming in a Europa League win over Istanbul Basaksehir last season. To add to this, their only previous experience of playing English opposition in Europe was twice against Liverpool last season losing 6-3 over the two games.
6 of their 9 European competition matches were in the Europa League - where the motivation is much lower that in the Champions League. I believe the Bundesliga was Hoffenheim's priority last season and they did not care much about Europa League, which explains the poor record. This season Hoffenheim have already registered a very respectable draw away at Shakhtar Donetsk (who had 5 home wins in a row in CL, including victories over Manchester City, Napoli and Roma; the last team to get any CL points there was Real Madrid).
That being said, the two losses against Liverpool speak for themselves (and that was the Liverpool before van Dijk) - Manchester City is definitely the better team and they need the points too!
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Well, Sampdoria won 2:1 and the under 2.5 bet lost. I will blame it on the Sampdoria goalie as he failed to keep hold of the ball after a routine long-range shot by a SPAL player... the rebound went straight to another SPAL player who could hardly miss the net.
I watched the first 25-30 minutes of the game, it looked weird - it had a rhythm similar to an NFL match: let's run a little, stop for a foul, no rush to take it if you can talk to other players or the referee instead, let's run a little again, oh, here's another foul - let's have a discussion about it or talk to the VAR guys... Truth be told, SPAL did take one foul quickly which took Sampdoria by surprise and that's how the first goal was scored. No idea how it went in the second half, I switched to watching Bournemouth and Palace. Match stats say Sampdoria had 9 shots on target and SPAL had 4 (I assume 2 of these were in the attack that lead to their goal).
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I will try a small bet on Under 2.5 goals in the Sampdoria - SPAL match today (odds 1.75 at bet365 and 1.8 at pinnacle).
SPAL are not prolific scorers but they they don't leak too many goals either. Only 1 of their 6 matches in Serie A this season has finished with over 2.5 goals - the 3:0 loss at Fiorentina (but Fiorentina have scored 14 goals in 7 matches, while Sampdoria have scored 9 in 6).
Sampdoria have allowed 3 goals in 6 matches in Serie A, keeping 3 clean sheets, that's not too shabby. Two of these matches finished with over 2.5 goals (3:0 home win against Napoli and 5:0 away at Frosinone).
Last season Sampdoria got a 2:0 home win against SPAL, both goals scored after 89 minutes of play.
So the odds look tempting, although there's the danger of the match ending in a 2:1 (if SPAL manage to score, Sampdoria should push for a win) or even 3:0.
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People expect Wolves to field a second-string team and Leicester to keep more first-team regulars in their starting lineup. I will place a small bet on the away win and will check the starting lineups to decide about a larger bet.
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Chicago Fire - Orlando City X2 @2.1
These are the bottom 2 teams in the East and both are in poor form, no wins in 8 or 9 matches. Chicago have not played any MLS matches since 23 August - so they've plenty of time to recover and train but they might be a bit rusty. For some reason Chicago are struggling at home against Orlando in MLS (only 1 win) but they have beaten them at home easily in other competitions. I don't think there's a much of a difference in class between the two teams, so it's all about motivation (neither side has much to play for) and home field advantage.
Small stakes.
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6 hours ago, Magic0024 said:
Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League
West Ham United has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Everton scored in last 4 home games in Premier League.
Wolverhampton Wanderers has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 games in Premier League.
Wolverhampton Wanderers allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 3 games in Premier League.
Everton allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 3 home games in Premier League.You can find interesting 75 Football Betting Streaks for 16.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-16-09-2018-11274
A few of these statements are false, e.g. Everton conceded a single goal in each of their home games this season (2:1 v Southampton and 1:1 against Huddersfield); Wolves conceded a single goal in each of their last 2 games against Man City and West Ham; Wolves drew 2:2 with Everton on opening day (that counts as over 2.5, right?).
Does anyone else even read the "facts and streaks" posts anymore?
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Re: Spain - Croatia
My small bet on this game is Both Teams To Score - available at 1.96 with pinnacle.
Spain are expected to score, since they are favourites to win and they should be in a good mood after winning in England. Form what I've read here, they are not dominating possession that much, so they should allow Croatia to play and create chances.
I have a lot of respect for Croatia, they had a great World Cup. Two big changes in their squad - Madzukic and Subasic have retired from international duty. I am betting that Perisic, Modric, Rakitic and the rest are eager to prove that Croatia are still a top team.
Spain score and allowed a goal against England. Croatia scored and conceded a goal against Portugal. So I am hoping for another fairly open game.
I might place a small bet on the draw as well.
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Portugal v Italy
Portugal are a tough team to beat but they are without Ronaldo, so less likely to win. Italy are going through a tough period but they are still a quality side. Both teams recorded 3 draws is their last 5 matches. So I will go for the draw here - available at 3.1 with bet365. Small stake.
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CFR Cluj - F91 Dudelange
I will try a combo of two bets, max stakes (so, two bets of 5 units each):
CFR Cluj to qualify @2.37 with bet365
Both teams to score @2.37 with bet365
The key factor for me is that Dudelange's regular goalie got injured in the first leg, he's not available today and his replacement looked shaky a week ago (he played for 35-40 minutes and kept a clean sheet but a defender had to clear the ball off the line on one occasion). So I am confident that CFR will score at least once today (last time they failed to score at home was in the match against Malmo; plus their new signing Julio Baptista is on the bench today).
Now, if Dudelande score (they have done that in each of their CL and Europa League matches this summer) it brings me at east 1.85 units of profit.
If they fail to score and the correct score is 0:0 (not likely, IMHO) or 1:0 (hoping that CFR will press forward at the end of the match and either score or allow Dudelange to score), then I lose 10 units.
But any other score 2:0, 3:0 and up brings me 1.85 units of profit.
And the big payout comes if Dudelange score but CFR qualify - 4:1, 5:2 and up, not very likely unless the Dudelange keeper is truly awful.
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Portland won 2:0.
Toronto looked pretty good in the first half, playing a high press and created a few chances. Managed to hit the post in the 11th minute and then hit the bar in the 89th minute. Now they have to beat both LA teams in Toronto (hopefully Osorio and Giovinco will be available this weekend).
Portland struggled in the first half but turned things around in the second. Defence was ok, as expected. They could have scored more goals after their first goal in the 64th minute, since Toronto surged forward and left plenty of open spaces at the back. Their second goal came from a stolen ball that Toronto's goalie passed to a team-mate, who was not aware of the Portland player lurking behind him. So not exactly an offensive masterpiece.
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In the US they always celebrate Labour Day on the first Monday of September.
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Portland Timbers - Toronto FC (kick-off in 40 minutes)
I was surprised by the low odds for the home win (below 1.9) since Portland have registered 4 consecutive losses and Toronto have lost just 1 of their last 10 matches (at home against NY City where Altidore got a red card in the 11th minute). Now odds have fallen even lower (1.65 with bet365 and 1.7 with pinnacle). The reason is that Toronto are resting many key players - Giovinco, Osorio, Vazquez, van der Wiel and even regular goalie Bono. Coach Vanney said he had a plan, let's see how it works. On the bright side, Altidore is back after his red-card suspension (he must be well rested).
Portland are having trouble scoring and Toronto's defence is still solid and I have a feeling that Toronto's plan is to sit back, frustrate the hosts and try to hit them on a counter-attack.
I see some value in "Portland to win and BTTS" - available at 3.00 with bet365. Not that I am certain of the home win or the Toronto's scoring ability. It's just that the home win is priced at 1.65 and BTTS is priced at 1.57, which gives a combined odds of 2.6. Assuming the fair odds is around 2.8, so odds of 3 might be worth a small stake - for fun only. Now, let's see if I can wrestle the remote control out of my daughter's hands and get to watch the game on TV ;-)
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I've been looking for value bets in this round but have not found any for today's matches. Going with a small stake on Both Teams To Score in Dynamo Kyiv - Ajax - odds 1.57 with pinnacle. Ajax keep scoring in CL and Dynamo managed to score in each of their CL matches as well. Not impressed with Dynamo's defence (they were very lucky to keep a clean sheet at home in the previous CL round). But I believe with home support and a few excellent players (e.g. Verbic) Dynamo should be able to score again. I would have loved odds above 1.65.
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Strong lineups from both teams.
Second-choice goalie starting for Toronto, regular keeper Bono is on the bench.
Alphonso Davies and Doneil Henry starting for Vancouver.
I've placed a small bet on the draw, I don't expect an easy win for the home team. Vancouver +0.5 might be an even better option.
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Varda SE - Ferencvaros
Result: 0:2
The home team got a red card in the first half but it was 0:0 at half-time. Then Ferencvaros scored two goals before the team were left with 9 men on the pitch after another red card in the 83rd minute.
Tennis Tips - October 29 - November 4
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
I found them at bet365