cluelessG
-
Posts
1,082 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by cluelessG
-
-
Varda SE - Ferencvaros
Away win @ 1.45 with bet365
Kick off is at 19:30 CET on 11 August
The home team has played 3 matches in the local league, lost all of them - two with a 0:4 score and the most recent loss was a respectable 0:1. All of them were away games, not sure why.
The away team has also played 3 matches, won all of them. Two 4:1 wins and then a 3:1 win.
Bottom of the table versus top of the table. It looks like there's a difference in class between these two and I am happy with the 1.45 odds.
-
-
MOL Vidi - DVSC
Draw @3.5 with bet365
MOL Vidi are a decent team as they eliminated Ludogorets in the CL qualifications and got a 1:1 at Malmo FF. In all these matches they preferred to defend and make sure they don't give away easy goals. But I am impressed on how easy they switched to attack mode and scored quickly when they had an opportunity (when Ludo was down to 10 men) or when they had to (when Malmo took a 1:0 lead). I would normally expect them to win against DVSC but... the return (home) leg against Malmo is on Tuesday and this is a critical match for them. So I can see problems with focus and motivation in the game against DVSC. Coach Nikolics says they must win in the local league to make sure they don't fall too far behind the leaders but... two weeks ago they were in a similar situation (before the return leg with Ludo) and they only managed to get a draw at home against Paksi. And DVSC looks like a stronger team than Paksi.
DVSC have played 3 rounds in the local league already, 2 away wins and 1 home draw, all against lower or mid-table teams. Not too bad but not very impressive either.
The head-to-head record in recent years is strongly in favour of MOL Vidi - 10 wins in a row in the local league (DVSC did manage to win a cup game and a friendly game though).
I will have a small bet on the draw. Home win is available at odds around evens and might be tempting if you have faith in H2H records or if you suspect the referees will help the home team (Hungarians complained about this last season - their Prime Minister supports MOL Vidi). I thought about taking DSVC +0.5 but I can get odds around 1.85 and I don't think there much value in it.
It could be a good opportunity for live betting, if you can find a decent stream of the game.
-
Malmo have a tough CL qualification match coming up on Tuesday in Hungary, so their coach has confirmed he will rotate the squad a bit. Rasmus Bengtsson and Arnór Traustason will not play on Friday due to injuries picked up earlier in the week. I am hoping Dalkurd are bad enough so MFF can get a safe 0:2 (or 1:3) result.
-
I've placed a small bet on
Spartak Subotica - Brondby - both teams to score @2.1 with bet365
Spartak were very lucky to eliminate Sparta Praha in the previous round. I believe that Sparta underestimated them in the first leg and lost 2:0. In the return leg Sparta dominated at home, took a 2:0 lead and were on their way to score another. But a stupid penalty (a needless push by a Sparta defender) in the 75th minute turned the match around.
So I believe Brondby will not underestimate Spartak now.
Odds for the away win are pretty low and I assume people expect Brondby to score. So the surprisingly high odds on BTTS are caused by doubts in Spartak's ability to score. So far Spartak have been able to score in every Europa League match this season, even though they found it hard to score at home against Coleraine. They created many chances against Sparta (who were not 100% focused) so I hope they will create a few against Brondby. Brondby's defence has not been water-tight this season. Spartak lost their last match in the local league 0:4 at home but they used their reserve players (and the regular goalie) so they are focused on the European matches!
A few things that may work against my bet:
The match will be played at a "new" neutral stadium - in Belgrade. Spartak's stadium is being renovated, so they are playing in a nearby town in the local championship and in the previous two rounds of Europa League they played in Novi Sad.
They sold a key midfielder - Mile Savkovic - to Jagiellonia Bialystok.
Milan Marcic got a red card in Prague so I assume he will miss today's match - but I hope that will mostly affect Spartak's defence and not their offence.
-
5 hours ago, allyhibs said:
Hibernian v Molde.
It's Easter Road for goals!
You have to go back to 30/3/18 for the last competitive Hibs home game to have less than 3 goals scored, in the 7 games since then there has been a staggering 40 goals scored, we seem to play with the attitude of 'score if you want, we'll score more'.
Molde are no slouches in front of goal either and this has the makings of yet another entertaining goal fest at Easter Road.
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 looks way overpriced.
I had this bet on my shortlist before they announced the transfer of John McGinn. How much will it affect Hibernian?
-
23 hours ago, Magic0024 said:
Football Facts and Streaks regarding MLS
Toronto has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 games in MLS.
Toronto won their last 5 games in MLS.
Atlanta United scored in last 4 home games in MLS.
Toronto scored in last 9 games in MLS.You can find interesting 85 Football Betting Streaks for 04.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-04-08-2018-10759
Toronto have NOT won their last 5 games in MLS, just the last 2 - both against Chicago Fire.
And they have NOT scored in last 9 games in MLS - just in the last 5.
-
5 hours ago, mtom said:
I can probably write a Phd thesis on why ludogorets (and the likes - teams with no fans, no history and shady, rich owners) are cancerous to football and my disdain for them is hard to hide, but for the sake of objectivity I'd do my best to present the facts as they are.
Re: MOL Vidi - Ludogorets - not related to betting!
I don't particularly like Ludogorets either but big football is big business, so if the owner is making money, then he's doing a good job. If we start black-listing "shady, rich owners", then we have to get rid of way too many of the biggest teams in Europe.
I am not sure that MOL Vidi is a good example of nice club - it's true that they have fans and history but their ownership is pretty shady. As far as I know, the owner is István Garancsi who is a close friend of the Hungarian Prime minister and has business interests in many areas, including oil and construction. He has been mentioned in scandals about the government securing cheap gas from abroad and allowing his company to sell it in Hungary; huge government contracts, etc. The main sponsor of the club is MOL, which is the local oil company - 25% of the shares owned by the state, which bought the shares from a Russian oil company. As you know, the Hungarian PM (another controversial character) is a fan of MOL Vidi and I am pretty sure he pulls a lot of strings in the club.
I used to work for a huge multi-national company with a factory in Szekesfehervar, where MOL Vidi is located. The company is bigger than MOL globally but of course its Hungarian business is much smaller than that of MOL. So the managers of this company explained to us that they would never sponsor a professional sports team. Instead they preferred to spend money on community projects. So they thought that their workers in Szekesfehervar would be happier if their kinds got a nice new public playground to play at and if the community got a new park instead of the company pouring the same amount of money into the local football club.
-
Toronto FC delivered a routine 3:0 win using a mix of first-team regulars and "second tier" players. Altidore played in the first half, Osorio played in the last 20 minutes (and duly scored), Mavinga got 60 minutes on the pitch, Giovinco stayed on the bench and so did the regular goalie Bono.
The Vancouver game starts now, no Alphonso Davies in the squad but otherwise it's a much stronger lineup than the one from the first leg. Odds for home win dropped a bit. Let's see if Montreal can get a result here, fingers crossed!
-
The top 3 Canadian teams play in MLS but they are also taking part in the Voyageurs Cup, which serves as a Canadian championship competition. Semifinal return legs will take place later today.
In the first semifinal Toronto FC rested most of their first-team players and still won the first leg away in Ottawa 0:1. So they are big favourites in the return leg, odds of 1.36 might provide some value, if Toronto starts with their best players. We had the same semi-final last year, Toronto lost the first leg 2:1 (away) but then comfortably won 4:0 at home. They can easily do the same this year but it depends on whether they will leave their stars on the bench. I might place a bet after I see the lineups.
In the other semifinal Montreal Impact won the first leg at home 1:0 against Vancouver Whitecaps. The guest were missing a lot of regular players while the host fielded a strong lineup and dominated the match. They could have scored at least one more goal. Still, 1:0 is a pretty good cup result and it was important to get a clean sheet as away goals are used as tie-breakers.
Montreal have hit good form recently so they are in a good mood. They even managed to get a draw at Portland on Saturday. Which also means they will not be tired from traveling since the Portland - Vancouver trip is a short one.
Vancouver have lost 5 of their last 6 matches (but 4 of these were away games, so you can say they have won 50% of their recent home games). Their coach promised to use strong team this week again Montreal, a team that "can win with a two-goal difference". They say it's an important match but what everyone is talking about is the transfer of Alfonso Davies to Bayern. He missed Vancouver's last match (2:0 away loss at Seattle), then he trained with the team on Monday but now he's allegedly in Philadelphia to watch Bayern against Juve. If he does not play today, it's a huge offensive loss for Vancouver.
I am placing a mid-size bet on Montreal +0.5 (odds around 1.95 with Pinnacle). I don't think Vancouver can win by two goals. The risk is that Montreal will be reasonably happy with a 2:1 loss... and a 1:0 score is not unlikely.
The best approach for Vancouver would be to sit tight and focus on defending for at least 60 minutes, make sure Montreal do not get the vital away goal. Then try to press for a 1:0 win. Which means that there should be value in the odds for Under 2.5 (2.2). I may look into that market after the starting lineups have been announced!
-
No idea how good Celtic are... but Rosenborg did not impress in the previous round. Did not show much in the first (away) leg, then needed a lot of help from the referees to take a 2:0 lead at home... them another weird decision by the referee lead to 2:1 and Rosenborg were 2-3 minutes away from elimination. Enough time for the referee to take centre stage again, another penalty and Rosenborg got through. Credit to them for taking advantage of the penalties! I've seen too many teams fail at that step (e.g. check what Levski did last week in the Europa League). So yes, Celtic is on my list of potential bets because of their home record in Europe and Rosenborg's dubious form (I've seen team change completely from one week to another though).
Another potential bet for Wednesday: Kukesi - Qarabag
Kukesi had all sorts of problems in the previous round against Valletta, took a 0:0 draw at home (very few chances for goals) and then parked their bus in front of their goal in the away leg, Valletta scored somehow in the second half... then Kukesi went searching for the vital away goal. They managed to score with only 2 shots on target! So I don't rate them highly and they look like a defensive-minded team to me.
Qarabag looked better, they won the first leg (away) 0:1 and then were happy with a 0:0 draw at home. They have the benefit of having played in the CL group stages last year, that puts them (at least) a level above Kukesi in my book. But their record shows that they don't score much (with some notable exceptions like the 5:0 at home against Samtredia last year). So I believe they will focus on defending against Kukesi and will be very happy with a single away goal. I might bet on Under 2 goals (probably not much value in the odds). But a better bet might be 0:1 correct score (@6.0), perhaps combined with 0:0 (@7.0). "Kukesi not to score" is another option but I have not checked the odds (that bet is not available at my main bookie).
-
Trying to have a look at MLS after a month of World Cup action.
Toronto FC is in a bad shape but I noticed the odds for them to win at Chicago Fire dropped in the last couple of hours. The most probable reason - key players returning from long-term injuries: Mavinga, Van der Wiel and Altidore are all in the starting lineup today. They are probably not 100% fit yet, but it's a major boost for the team. TFC played in Ottawa in mid-week and won 1:0 but they most used their B team (Osorio did play and scored the goal). Former Toronto player Edwards just joined Chicago Fire from Montreal Impact, we'll see if he can score against his "home town" team. I put a small bet on TFC to win but will definitely keep an eye on them to improve a lot in the coming weeks!
Also placed a bet on New England Revolution to score at New York RB - they seem to create a lot of of chances and NY RB are reportedly trying to switch their system of play and are leaving more counter-attack options for their opponents. NE Revolution are tired from the mid-week trip to Minnesota but three key players were suspended for that game, so they are well rested.
-
I have put some money on OFK Titograd to beat B36 Torshavn @1.31. Low odds but it reflects the difference in class and the must win situation for the home side. I do belive OFK Titograd is the much better team. Their coach was not happy that they failed to win in the first leg (it finished 0:0 and I had a bet on OFK Titograd -0.25) but he stressed that they will be patient today and happy with any win. He pointed out how hard it was for the big favourite Crvena Zvezda to get a home win against Spartaks yesterday.
-
16 hours ago, Xcout said:
I was also considering Montreal Impact, it is just a shocker the final result, and more when Philadephia could have scored more and Impact had their chances but just missed them.
After 0-1, The Impact had his match goal scorer Burke expelled from a nasty tackle. But 9 minutes later Impact defender Lovitz saw the red car and was 10 v 10, and the Union was able to score another, to get their first away victory.
I watched the final minutes of the first half - Philly kept possession of the ball for 2-3 minutes, bringing it into the Impact half of the field, then going back deep into their own half, then forward again but on the other flank, then switching flanks... Montreal just looked asleep and content to watch the ball and wait for half-time. So Philly brought them to sleep and then score a simple goal - crossing the ball into the penalty area where Burke was unmarked. Then I saw that halftime stats - it looked like Union had dominated the game - more possession of the ball, more shots on goal.
When Burke got sent off, Impact started going forward with more intent and I believe then got 1 good chance to score. The foul for the Montreal red card was a basic defensive error - the defender chasing a long ball with a striker a couple for steps behind his back. So he tried to kick the ball off to the side (instead of kicking it back to the goalie or for a corner kick), but meanwhile the striker had sprinted and was level with him, the ball hit the striker and the defender fell to the ground, bringing down his opponent as they were shoulder to shoulder. Initially the ref gave a yellow card, but after a VAR he changed his mind and went for a red card, probably because that was the last defender for Impact. A sloppy play from the defender, a bit like the one for the Arsenal defender that allowed Atletico Madrid to level the score with 10 men recently.
After that Union were content to wait at the back, Impact looked out of ideas and even their usual inspiration Piatti looked tired, kept tripping over the ball, could not hit it properly, etc. They got maybe one half-chance to score.
Union's second goal was a horrible mistake by an Impact defender who missed a pass from his team-mate in his own penalty box.
I know Impact have many injuries in defense. But the whole team looked very tired and in a poor mental state.That was an incredibly poor performance by them. Are they trying to get their coach fired?
I'm trying to watch more MLS matches (I usually get Toronto and Montreal on TV) but sometimes it's a painful experience ... especially compared to the English Premier League.
-
I am taking the home win for Montreal Impact against Philadelphia Union.
Philly have a horrible away record, lost many away games in a row, including this week's visit to Columbus. Main striker CJ Sapong is not available. Jay Simpson is either out of form or out of favour, not playing anyway. The coach decided to change the attacking players in the starting lineup, we'll see how that works. I watched the highlights of the Columbus game, the Union only had a couple of chances in the last 10 minutes. They played badly at Toronto as well. Toronto are leaking goals at home currently (many injured payers), but the Union failed to score (first team not to score at the BMO field this season, I believe).
I have a feeling that Montreal are playing well at home and poorly away. But they had a decent game at Chicago Fire, did not allow many chances and lost by a goal in 89th minute. They also have many injuries in defence, so the focus is now on improving it. Attack is working fine, especially at home. If things work well, I can seem them scoring at least 2 today and it's not very likely that the Union can respond with more than 1.
Odds around evens for the home win look fine to me, I would expect them to be around 1.8.
-
Another reason to jump on the "Fulham will not be promoted" bandwagon
Cardiff joy as poor refereeing costs unlucky Fulham a return to the Premier League:
-
My pick for this round: Toronto FC - Chicago Fire
Toronto are the last season's champions but they are doing badly this season. Mostly because they have been focusing on the North American version of the Champions league and playing reserves in MLS matches. That gamble almost paid off - they won 2:1 away at Chivas on Wednesday in the second leg of the final. Having lost the first leg 1:2 at home, they had to go to penalties - and the lost.
So Toronto are not in the best mental state after that loss. They are also tired after the trip to Mexico. Plenty of injuries, especially at the back. They have to play a mix of regular and reserve players.
I found odds of 1.9 for Chicago Fire +1 so I will take it.
Chicago Fire are capable of getting a result on their day. They won at New York RB last week - they were lucky and that was a big surprise.
-
If Liverpool are going to be aggressive, I would look into:
Liverpool to score in the first half, odds 2.55 with my bookie
And two correct scores for fun, small stakes - but I can see value in these key results (5:1 is excellent value):
3:0, odds 11
5:1, odds 40
-
Re: Southampton v West Ham > Wednesday February 11th Motivation is clearly on the hosts' side. They are pushing for a Champions league spot which will boost their finances and help them build a higher-quality squad. West Ham are sitting comfortably in the middle of the table, no relegation worries. Their focus should be on the FA cup match against WBA this Saturday. They played great against Man Utd last Sunday (that opponent always provides enough motivation) and they need time to recover from that (both physically and emotionally). Unfortunately no real value in current odds.
-
Re: West Ham v Manchester United > Wed 17th April Motivation of each team is key to this match. Manchester United need a couple of wins to secure the title and I am sure that Sir Alex would love to get those 6 points before the matches against Arsenal and Chelsea. West Ham have hit some form and that's why they are currently sitting in the middle of the table. But they are not that far from the relegation zone and they too need a couple of wins before the end of the season. It would be tough to get points at Man City or Everton but they should win against Reading at home. That leaves them with the task of winning against Man Utd, Wigan or Newcastle (all home games). If survival in Premieship is the top priority, then West Ham will focus on Saturday's match against Wigan as a win would virtually guarantee survival. If disaster strikes on Saturday, a win against Newcastle will fix things up and it's not a "mission impossible". So why bother with the game against Man United? Just rest some players and get the key win on Saturday. Of course, players may have other priorities as good performance against Man Utd is generally good for your career. So I expect Manchester United to win this by a goal or two and West Ham will probably score. Unfortunately I don't see any outstanding value in the odds. "Both teams to score" looks ok at around 1.75. But I would wait to see the starting lineups.
-
Re: Manchester United v Everton > Sun 10th February Only 2 away losses so far for Everton looks impressive indeed... but take into account that out of the current top 8 in Premiership they have played only Man City (draw) and Swansea (win). And they lost at the current #9 WBA. On the other hand, people say the Everton play better against stronger opponents.
-
Re: Stoke City v Liverpool > Boxing Day
hammers were missing only carrol at that time' date=' so yes to attack thesis, but no to missings... not so sure about stoke this time, seems impossible that bookies would make the same mistake several times in a row... no bet for me untill +0.5 1.80+...[/quote'] The key missing player was Diame - he was carried off on a stretcher after 73 min. with West Ham leading 2:1. -
Re: Newcastle United v West Ham United > Sunday 11th November Speaking of former players, Ba used to play for the Hammers so may be extra motivated to score today. I have zero confidence in West Ham playing away from home so I think Newcastle will win by a single goal.
-
Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October Bet of the day for me is Switzerland to win at home against Norway. The hosts are in great form, won 2:0 away in Slovenia and 2:0 at home against Albania. They have quite a few very good players too, a mix of experience and youth, look at the squad: gk: Benaglio (Wolfsburg), Sommer (Basel), Wölfli (Bern). df: Djourou (Arsenal), Klose (Nürnberg), Lichtsteiner (Juve), Rodriguez (Wolfsburg), Rossini (Sampdoria), vBergen (Palermo), Ziegler (Lok Moscow). mf: Barnetta (Schalke), Behrami (Napoli), Dzemaili (Napoli), Fernandes (Sporting Lissabon), Inler (Napoli), Mathys (St.Gallen), Shaqiri (Bayern München), Stocker (Basel), G.Xhaka (Gladbach). fw: Ben Khalifa (Grasshopper), Derdiyok (Hoffenheim), Mehmedi (Dynamo Kiev), Gavranovic (Zürich). More importantly, they seem to have built a good team. Norway lost 0:2 in Iceland... and then beat Slovenia 2:1 at home with an injury-time goal. These results speak for themselves. I've taken odds of 1.72 at Betfair with max stakes.
Canadian Championship - Voyageurs Cup
in Other North America Predictions
Posted
Second leg of the Voyageurs Cup final:
Toronto FC - Vancouver Whitecaps (2:2 after the first leg)
In the first leg the Whitecaps had to play the second half with 10 men after Felipe Martins got a red card. HT score was 1:1, Vancouver somehow took a 2:1 but Doneil Henry scored an own goal (and apparently broke his wrist in frustration) in the 88th minute to make it a 2:2 draw.
Toronto are heavy favourites to win the second leg - 1.53 with pinnacle. There are a few good reasons for this. It's a home game for them, they should feel more comfortable at their own field and it's a long flight for Vancouver. Toronto players Sebastian Giovinco, Gregory van der Wiel and Victor Vazquez did not travel to Vancouver for the first leg but now they are available (Vazquez might be injured) - 3 key players, they should boost the home team. Vancouver have injury troubles - Jose Aja and Jordon Mutch are out; star player Alphonso Davies, Doneil Henry and Brett Levis are game-day decisions; Felipe Martins serves out his red card ban. If the 3 questionable players are not available, Vancouver will have to start with one of their inexperienced Canadian players (they must start with 3 Canadians - Russel Teibert and Marcel De Jong are regular starters).
Both teams have had a congested schedule for the past few weeks - they played the first leg in the middle of last week and then had their regular MLS matches over the weekend. Chris Mavinga and Jozy Altidore will miss the next MLS game for Toronto, so they should play as many minutes as possible today and get a rest over the weekend. The coach of Vancouver mentioned that he may rest a couple of players - he often rotates striker Kamara, who played in the last 2 matches (but was substituted in both) but he will probably use him again today.
On the other hand, Vancouver are in great form - they have won 3 of their last 5 matches (including an away win at Portland, which is a tough place to visit) and they have drawn the other 2 games (including an away draw at New York City, you don't get many points there).
So yes, I agree that Toronto are favourites but I don't see much value in the odds offered. The draw is available at 4.5 with pinnacle and it's not a bad option since Toronto will win the cup with a 0:0 or 1:1 draw. A 2:2 draw will call for extra time and potentially for penalties.
I will wait for the starting lineups before I place any bets but I don't expect good opportunities for high-stake bets.