martsman

Berankis to beat Duckworth at 1.57
Berankis has been playing decent tennis on clay this season and has only lost to guys who are having a great season: ramos vinolas, delbonis, ivashka (lajovic not having a good season but played well against berankis). He played another good match against Humbert, who's not very good at clay but played with good intensity. Duckworth on the other hand has been awful recently. he seems to have lucked out in finding the only opponent who has been more awful than him: caruso. imo, this should be easy peasy lemon squeezy for berankis.

Berankis to beat Duckworth at 1.57
Berankis has been playing decent tennis on clay this season and has only lost to guys who are having a great season: ramos vinolas, delbonis, ivashka (lajovic not having a good season but played well against berankis). He played another good match against Humbert, who's not very good at clay but played with good intensity. Duckworth on the other hand has been awful recently. he seems to have lucked out in finding the only opponent who has been more awful than him: caruso. imo, this should be easy peasy lemon squeezy for berankis.

Berankis to beat Duckworth at 1.57
Berankis has been playing decent tennis on clay this season and has only lost to guys who are having a great season: ramos vinolas, delbonis, ivashka (lajovic not having a good season but played well against berankis). He played another good match against Humbert, who's not very good at clay but played with good intensity. Duckworth on the other hand has been awful recently. he seems to have lucked out in finding the only opponent who has been more awful than him: caruso. imo, this should be easy peasy lemon squeezy for berankis.

After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value

to add to other info on him, Stricker was one of the practice partners for the top guys at the ATP Finals 2020 in London. Saw him practice with djoker a few times. He has seen massive improvement since then, evidenced by the challenger title in Lugano. too inconsistent still for me too put money on him against Cilic, especially at these odds. but definitely a guy to keep an eye on.

Dude won the second set just to spoil my spread. Right read, but an unlucky loss. Onwards. 

i took sonego +5.5 at 1.80 on b365. sonego is playing some inspired tennis. not enough to beat djoker maybe, but i think he deserves better than a 6-3 6-4 scoreline. other factors im considering are that both are playing two matches in the same day. but while sonego played a full match, i think djokovic's two sets were more taxing today. rublev pretty much gave up in the third. also, sonego is younger + has the crowd behind him.

took refill at 1.80. swimming in money ???

Cerundolo was worth the wait!

I'm leaning Stefanos too. But this also Novak's favourite clay tournament, has won it 5 times. Even if he is focussing on slams, he is not one to just roll over in every tournament. He is defending 1000 points here, and would like a deep run. He has also looked good and motivated in the first two rounds. But again, totally agree that this is best version of stefanos on clay that he'll be facing.  That's what makes this difficult to predict for me. Agree that slight value is on the Tsits.

I'm leaning Stefanos too. But this also Novak's favourite clay tournament, has won it 5 times. Even if he is focussing on slams, he is not one to just roll over in every tournament. He is defending 1000 points here, and would like a deep run. He has also looked good and motivated in the first two rounds. But again, totally agree that this is best version of stefanos on clay that he'll be facing.  That's what makes this difficult to predict for me. Agree that slight value is on the Tsits.

I'm leaning Stefanos too. But this also Novak's favourite clay tournament, has won it 5 times. Even if he is focussing on slams, he is not one to just roll over in every tournament. He is defending 1000 points here, and would like a deep run. He has also looked good and motivated in the first two rounds. But again, totally agree that this is best version of stefanos on clay that he'll be facing.  That's what makes this difficult to predict for me. Agree that slight value is on the Tsits.

very difficult to predict what happens here, i think. i'll just buy popcorn and watch

very difficult to predict what happens here, i think. i'll just buy popcorn and watch

Think Tsitsipas at 1.44 is still a good bet. Berrettini looked tired against Millman and was struggling in the first set, having reached the finals last week. Tsitsipas lost early last week, looked great against Cilic and should be a massive favourite to win this. Berrettini does have a big serve and Tsitsipas is a bad returner (though not that bad on clay). I see a set or two going to tiebreak, but Tsitsipas should definitely pull this off.

Think Tsitsipas at 1.44 is still a good bet. Berrettini looked tired against Millman and was struggling in the first set, having reached the finals last week. Tsitsipas lost early last week, looked great against Cilic and should be a massive favourite to win this. Berrettini does have a big serve and Tsitsipas is a bad returner (though not that bad on clay). I see a set or two going to tiebreak, but Tsitsipas should definitely pull this off.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 1.71 with Pinnacle
Cerundolo is flying under the radar even despite winning the big event in Cordoba, but he's making strides on the Challenger circuit and he's doing very well on European clay. No surprises there, his playing style works best on slower clay and he's already beaten a better player than Van De Zandschulp here in Coria. I expected something like 1.57, so I'm more than happy to take the 1.71 that's on offer.

Agree that Rublev is a beast. But I think Nadal was also not really at his best, and was making lots of uncharacteristic errors. I wouldnt be surprised if there's some form of a repeat of last year, when Nadal lost to Schwartzman in Rome and then destroyed him at the French Open. If this loss raises the price for Nadal to win Roland Garros over 3.0, I'm taking it.

Agree that Rublev is a beast. But I think Nadal was also not really at his best, and was making lots of uncharacteristic errors. I wouldnt be surprised if there's some form of a repeat of last year, when Nadal lost to Schwartzman in Rome and then destroyed him at the French Open. If this loss raises the price for Nadal to win Roland Garros over 3.0, I'm taking it.

Tremendous beating. I'm really happy to have seen it. I have nothing against Nadal but I don't like how he's treated by the media. Before the match started I heard some sports journalists making fun about how many games would be able to win Rublev. They were saying that no more than 7-8... Lol. And I wonder...how many Rublev matches have seen these guys this year...?  He has destroyed Nadal after playing an epic match against RBA in his last round in which he even had cramps during the last set, and that's the only reason why I had some doubts about him today. But it's obvious he has recovered well from that. He's a beast. I think we can say Rafa has found another player who can beat him on clay, even in Montecarlo.

yes, this happened literally a second after I posted. i think Rublev still has a chance though. he's right there.

haha even a break down in the third set, Rafa is a 1.8 favourite

The quality in Rublev-Agut is soo good. They are absolutely killing each other.

saw Evans vs Lajovic and Hurkacz vs Fabbiano. Evans played quite well there, defending with slice backhand super effectively and coming to the net finish points. I saw Hurkacz struggle with Fabbiano. He was not playing particularly well and I don't think he's great on clay anyway. Decided to keep away from Evans-Hurkacz cause couldnt tell how it would go.

As well as Evans has been playing, think he gets slaughtered today at the hands of Djokovic